Daily tips for November 29

Note 1: Bets are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).

Note 2: There are no NBA games scheduled for today.


A-League (round 8) for November 29

Central Coast Mariners (2-3-1) v Melbourne Victory (3-2-2), Bluetongue Stadium, Gosford, Friday, November 29, 7.30pm

Fans of the round-ball game have been served up some quality fare over the past few weeks on Friday nights, and it’s unlikely the standard will drop as the Central Coast Mariners host the Melbourne Victory to open round 8 of the A-League. In their first home game under new head coach Phil Moss and riding high after a last-gasp win away to Perth Glory, the Mariners welcome a Victory side coming off a convincing 3-0 triumph at home Adelaide despite playing with 10 men for the second half. Victory have plenty of unfinished business at the Bluetongue – they were on the wrong end of a 6-2 thrashing there last season, and their finals challenge ended at the same venue in the semi-finals later in the campaign. A trip to tackle the champions without suspended duo Leigh Broxham and Adrian Leijer will be a major test of Victory's credentials under their own rookie boss Kevin Muscat, who is slowly finding his feet in the top job after the departure of Ange Postecoglou to coach the Socceroos.

Likewise, Phil Moss is attempting to fill big shoes after Graham Arnold (the pair are pictured above) departed Central Coast for a plum job in Japan. He made a strong start in the top job last weekend, altering the Mariners' travel plans and subsequently ending their sequence of negative results in Perth. Moss will also be keen to test the Victory’s road form, as they are yet to win on the road this season, coming from 2-0 down to draw in Adelaide, before suffering successive defeats in the Harbour City to Sydney FC and the Wanderers. All eyes will also be on the Argentine playmaker Marcos Flores, who underwhelmed at Victory after being unveiled to great fanfare prior to the 2012-13 campaign. His ressurgence with the Mariners has been promising enough to date, but it remains to be seen if he can fully recapture the magic that set the league alight during his time with Adelaide in 2010-11. At least Moss is likely to utilise his talents efficiently after Postecoglou insisted on playing his out of position.

Confirmed bet

Central Coast Mariners WIN v Melbourne Victory (one unit @ $2.00) LOSE (0-0)

Leans

Central Coast Mariners v Melbourne Victory -2.5 $1.80 WIN (0-0)

Central Coast Mariners v Melbourne Victory (1-0) $6.50 LOSE (0-0)

Racing for November 29

Horse racing: Moonee Valley (Vic – night), Randwick (NSW), Pakenham (Vic), Ipswich (Qld), Naracoorte (SA), Canberra (ACT). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Tamworth (NSW), Burnie (Tas), Ballarat (Vic), Young (NSW), Globe Derby (SA), Gloucester Park (WA), Kalgoorlie (WA). Greyhound racing: Casino (NSW), Gawler (SA), Bendigo (Vic), The Gardens (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Wagga (NSW), Geelong (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Mandurah (WA).

Confirmed bets

Randwick R3 #1 Perplexity (win) 1st ($2.00)

Pakenham R1 #8 Shattered Dreams (win) 1st ($1.85)

Canberra R6 #5 Back To Zero (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($1.90)

Ipswich R8 #1 Polar Blitz (win) LOSE (3rd)

Leans

Randwick R6 #4 Lucky News (E/W 1x3) 1st ($5.50/$2.00)

Randwick R7 #11 Worldly Impact (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Pakenham R5 #9 Yougopowpow (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Pakenham R7 #5 Little Hero (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($1.40)

Ipswich R6 #1 I Couldn’t See It (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.40)

Canberra R3 #1 Bonzar (win) 1st ($3.60)

Canberra R7 #3 Miss Expresso (E/W) 1st ($8.60/$2.50)

Naracoorte R3 #2 Hasta La Gorby (win) LOSE (U/P)

Moonee Valley R6 #2 Peninsula Dane (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Moonee Valley R8 #3 Baluch (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.50)

Harness racing tip: Ballarat R9 #5 My Bella Star (win) 1st ($1.70)

Greyhound racing tip: The Gardens R7 #1 White Fin (win) 1st ($1.65)

NHL for November 29

Edmonton Oilers (7-16-2, 16pts) @ Nashville Predators (13-10-2, 28pts), Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN, Friday, November 29, 12.10pm

After a brief burst of glory, the Edmonton Oilers have returned to struggle street with a visit to an improving Nashville on Thanksgiving unlikely to help turn things around. While the Oilers (7-16-2) followed a 1-9-1 stretch with a season-best three straight victories, their woes resumed on Monday in a 5-1 loss to Chicago. Devan Dubnyk allowed the game’s first four goals before getting pulled in favour of Ilya Bryzgalov 5:49 into the second period. The veteran Bryzgalov, who was signed on November 8 and called up from Oklahoma City nine days later, stopped 12 of 13 shots in his Oilers debut. Edmonton ranks 29th in the NHL with a 3.52 goals-against average. He’ll get a chance to build on that showing Thursday in his first start. He is 6-3-1 with a 2.27 GAA and one shutout in his last 10 match-ups against Nashville. Oilers forward Ales Hemsky has notched nine and 12, respectively, during a 21-game stretch versus Nashville.

Bryzgalov could be in for a stiff test against the Predators (12-10-2), who have outscored opponents 21-8 while winning five of six. Two nights after beating Phoenix 4-2, Nashville stayed hot with a 4-0 win at Columbus on Wednesday. Rookie Marek Mazanec made 19 saves for his second shutout in five games while Matt Cullen and Nick Spaling each had a goal and an assist. Ryan Ellis and Gabriel Bourque both added two helpers. The Predators have killed off 16 consecutive chances on the penalty kill dating to November 15 and allowed an NHL-low seven power-play goals since October 12. David Legwand (pictured) tallied his fifth goal and team leading 20th point against the Blue Jackets. Nashville, which is 10-2-1 when he records at least one point, also improved to 11-1-2 when scoring first and 9-0-1 when leading after the opening period. The Preds outscored Edmonton 9-2 in taking both home games last season and are 11-4-0 in the series at home since November 2005.

Confirmed bets

Edmonton Oilers @ Nashville Predators WIN NT (one unit @ $2.10) LOSE (3-0)

Vancouver Canucks WIN $1.80 @ Ottawa Senators WIN (5-2)

Leans

Vancouver Canucks @ Ottawa Senators -5.5 (one unit @ $1.77) LOSE (5-2)
Edmonton Oilers @ Nashville Predators -1.5 $3.10 +5.5 $2.10 LOSE (3-0)

College Football (week 14) for November 29

SEC: Ole Miss Rebels (7-4, 3-4 SEC) @ Mississippi State (5-6, 2-5 SEC); Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS; Friday, November 29, 11.30am

Rivalry week, the end of the regular season and Thanksgiving – it doesn’t get much bigger for the four schools in action in today’s two College Football games. I think the better value lies in Starkville where the battle for the Egg Bowl returns to Thanksgiving night for the first time in 10 years as Mississippi takes on Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are looking for their fourth victory in the last five meetings with the Rebels, who hold a considerable 61-42-6 edge in the series.  In addition to capturing the Egg Bowl, Mississippi can prevent the Bulldogs from becoming bowl-eligible. Hugh Freeze's team is already assured of a bowl game for the second straight season and is eyeing a .500 record in the SEC. Quarterback Bo Wallace battled flu-like symptoms in a 24-10 loss to Missouri, which is one of four ranked teams to beat the Rebels this season. Freeze was unable to update the condition of the Wallace, who has completed 64.4 per cent of his passes this season for 2908 and 17 touchdowns, but the junior was at practice on Monday.

However, the Bulldogs are in far worse shape. Mississippi State may lack the necessary energy to become bowl eligible, considering it comes off a 24-17 overtime victory over the Arkansas Razorbacks as 2.5-point road favorites last Saturday—a game that followed physical football games against Alabama, Texas A&M and South Carolina. The Bulldogs may also have to play this game without the services of their top two quarterbacks. Damien Williams is expected to start at quarterback after scoring the winning touchdown (and his first ever in College Football) in last week's victory over Arkansas in relief of starter Tyler Russell, who injured his shoulder. Dak Prescott (arm) leads the team in passing and rushing, but won't be available unless the Bulldogs qualify for a bowl for the fourth consecutive season. This will be the 99th consecutive season the teams will meet. Mississippi is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a SU loss while the ‘over’ is 5-1 in Mississippi's last six games following an ATS loss. In the other game, Texas should be too strong for a Texas Tech aiming to avoid a fifth straight loss.

Confirmed bets

Ole Miss Rebels -4 @ Mississippi State Bulldogs (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (10-17)

Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Texas Longhorns +67 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (16-41)

Leans

Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Texas Longhorns -4.5 WIN (16-41)

Ole Miss Rebels @ Mississippi State Bulldogs -53.5 $1.91 WIN (10-17)

NFL (week 13) for November 29

Green Bay Packers (5-5-1, 2-3 away) @ Detroit Lions (6-5, 3-2 home); Ford Field, Detroit, MI; Friday, November 29, 4.30am

The turkey might have been cooked to perfection, but Thanksgiving Day has generally left bad taste in the mouths of Detroit fans. They’ve suffered a nine-game losing skid on the holiday Thursday and have covered only twice during that decade-long drought. But with no Aaron Rodgers to contend with here and Lions fans are as buoyant as ever that the trend will be reversed here. Two of the NFC North’s three five-loss teams go to battle when Matt Flynn (pictured) leads the visiting Green Bay Packers against the Detroit Lions with more than a drumstick at stake. Rodgers has been ruled out for a third straight game after suffering a broken left collarbone on November 4 against Chicago.  The Packers (5-5-1) are 0-3-1 since Rodgers got hurt. Flynn, playing his first game with the Packers since backing up Rodgers from 2008-11, went 21 of 36 for 218 yards and a touchdown in the 26-26 tie with the Vikings last Sunday. Green Bay has averaged 18.0 points in the past four weeks, tied for 25th in the league. Through Week 8, the Packers were third in the league with Rodgers at 30.3 points per game.

A win would vault the Packers past the Lions (6-5), who haven't been able to take advantage of their division foe's misfortune or their own seemingly soft schedule. Detroit lost consecutive games for the first time this year against Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay, which have a combined 8-14 record. But both of those teams have won three in a row. The Lions haven’t exactly had the same quarterback of late, either. Matthew Stafford threw at least four interceptions for the first time since November 13, 2011, in Sunday’s 24-21 loss to the Buccaneers. He’d thrown eight in the previous 10 games this season with just one multi-interception game. Accuracy has been an issue as Stafford has completed a league-worst 49.6 per cent of his throws this month in three games after connecting on 62.4 per cent through Week 8. The off day against the Bucs came despite the return of one of Stafford’s top targets, Nate Burleson. The Lions’ No. 2 wide receiver had seven catches on 10 targets for 77 yards and a touchdown in his first game since September 22 after breaking his left arm in a car accident.

Confirmed bets

Green Bay Packers +6 @ Detroit Lions (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (10-40)

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 @ Baltimore Ravens (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (20-22)

Leans

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions -51 $1.91 WIN (10-40)

Oakland Raiders +11.5 $1.91 WIN @ Dallas Cowboys +47.5 $1.91 WIN (24-31)

Football (Europa League matchday 5) for November 29

Group D: Wigan Athletic (1-2-1) v SV Zulte Waregem (1-1-2), DW Stadium, Wigan, England, Friday, November 29, 7.10am

Things start to get a little trickier in Matchday 5 of the UEFA Europe League. The battle for top two positions in some of the 12 groups has already been decided while time differences across the continent mean a handful of games could be dead rubbers by the time of kick-off in Western Europe. A good example is in Group A, where Swansea and Valencia will have cemented the top two spots if Kuban Krasnodar defeats St Gallen. In contrast, only Russian side Rubin Kazan is assured of qualification from Group D with Wigan Athletic (England), SV Zulte Waregem (Belgium) and NK Maribor (Slovenia) all in contention for the second spot. That makes the clash between Wigan and Zulte Waregem all the more important. Wigan goalkeeper Lee Nicholls will keep his place as Scott Carson continues to recover from an ankle injury. Latics defender Juan Carlos Garcia strained his ankle on international duty and is out for six weeks.

Wigan met Zulte Waregem in what was their very first European fixture on Matchday 1. On a wet night in Belgium on Latics’ European debut the two sides fought out a competitive goalless draw. Zulte Waregem currently sit second in their domestic league behind Standard Liege, and are in good form with only one defeat in their last 10 league games. They’re also the second highest scorers in the league with 34 goals in 16 games (an average of more than two goals per game). Thorgan Hazard (pictured), the younger brother of Chelsea winger Eden, is part of the Zulte Waregem squad. The 20-year-old, who is on loan from Stamford Bridge, has scored nine goals in 16 games for the Belgian side this season. No Belgian side has recorded a European victory against an English team in the past nine attempts. More ominously perhaps for Waregem – no Belgian side has beaten an English team away in the last 29 attempts.

Confirmed bets

Wigan Athletic v SV Zulte-Waregem – double chance (two units @ $1.83) WIN (1-2)

FC Rubin Kazan (to nil) v NK Maribor (one unit @ $2.10) LOSE (1-1)

Tromsø IL v Tottenham Hotspur -1 (one unit @ $1.95) WIN (0-2)

Ludogorets Razgard (double chance) v PSV Eindhoven (one unit @ $1.70) WIN (2-0)
Chornomorets Odesa WIN v Dinamo Zagreb (one unit @ $1.67) WIN (2-1)

Leans

FC Kuban Krasnodar WIN $1.95 v FC St Gallen WIN (4-0)

Paços Ferreira v Fiorentina WIN $1.60 LOSE (0-0) 

FC Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk v CS Pandurii Târgu Jiu +2.5 $1.80 WIN (4-1) 

Girondins de Bordeaux WIN $2.60 v Eintracht Frankfurt LOSE (0-1)

KRC Genk v FC Dynamo Kyiv WIN $2.15 LOSE (3-1)

Sevilla FC -1 $1.75 v Estoril Praia LOSE (1-1)

Olympique Lyonnais WIN $1.85 v Real Betis WIN (1-0)

Trabzonspor AS -1 $2.15 v Apollon Limassol FC WIN (4-2)

Legia Warszawa v SS Lazio WIN $1.85 WIN (0-2)

FC Shakhter Karagandy v PAOK Salonika WIN $1.83 WIN (0-2)

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