Daily tips for November 25

Note: Bets are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).


Racing for November 25

Horse racing: Hamilton (Vic), Scone (NSW). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Globe Derby (SA), Horsham (Vic), Newcastle (NSW), Pinjarra (WA). Greyhound racing: Albion Park (Qld), Angle Park (SA), Ballarat (Vic), Bathurst (NSW), Geelong (Vic), Launceston (Tas), Northam (WA), Nowra (NSW), Shepparton (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW).

It’s the turn of the harness racing fraternity to occupy the racing spotlight this week with the running of the $750,000 SEW Eurodrive Miracle Mile at TABCORP Park Menangle on Saturday night. To underline how much times have changed, the race was first held in 1967 as the Craven Filter Miracle Mile and, at that time, it was the richest sprint race ever staged in trotting in the Southern Hemisphere. When the Miracle Mile was run for the first time at Harold Park, the title seemed grandiose as the ‘magical’ two-minute barrier was still to be bettered by a pacer in a race in the Southern Hemisphere. But history was made on that balmy night in 1967, however, when a crowd of 20,287 gave eight-year-old mare Robin Dundee a champion’s ovation after she scorched over the Glebe circuit in 1:59.

 

The field for the 2013 race was finalised at TABCORP Park Menangle on Saturday night when For A Reason and Mach Beauty earned the last two invitations into what is shaping as one of the best editions of the Miracle Mile on record. Smoken Up (pictured with driver/trainer Lance Justice) earned the last automatic invitation after a devastating 1:49.9 win, joining the earlier invitees Beautide, Im Victorious, Terror To Love, Restrepo and Christen Me. Cordina Sprint third placegetter Abettorpunt was named first reserve for next weekend’s $750,000 Miracle Mile ahead of Bitobliss, Ideal Scott, who reportedly pulled up lame after missing a place in the Cordina Sprint and defending champion Baby Bling, who again disappointed when unplaced behind Smoken Up. Watch for a full preview of the race later in the week.

Confirmed bets

Scone R7 #4 Husswick (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Leans

Hamilton R3 #13 Opening Bell (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($1.50)

Hamilton R5 #1 Escadrille (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Scone R5 #8 Londane (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Scone R8 #2 Capitano (win) 1st ($3.80)

Harness racing tip: Horsham R1 #1 Adam Cartwright (win) LOSE (2nd)

Greyhound racing tip: Shepparton R10 #4 Forensics (win)

NBA for November 25

Sacramento Kings (4-8, 1-3 away) @ Los Angeles Lakers (6-7, 5-3 home), STAPLES Center (pictured), Los Angeles, CA, Monday, November 24, 1.40pm

This might not be the greatest Lakers side ever to take to the court, but they’re just a whisker under .500 and slowly clawing their way back into the competition after a horror start to the 2013 NBA season. They also start a favorable stretch of the schedule here when they attempt to continue their home success against the Sacramento Kings. Los Angeles (6-7) went 45-37 last season before being swept by San Antonio in the opening round of the playoffs due partly to missing Kobe Bryant, who is still recovering from a torn Achilles tendon. Steve Nash has been limited to six games this season and is out for at least another week. However, the Lakers are coming off back-to-back wins for the first time this season, beating Golden State 102-95 on Friday after winning 114-99 over Detroit five days earlier. Pau Gasol had 24 points against the Warriors and is scoring 13.8 per game. After facing the Kings (4-8), the Lakers begin a three-game road trip at Washington on Tuesday before visiting Brooklyn and Detroit.

The Lakers have won nine of their last 10 home games against Sacramento, averaging 110.8 points, and took both meetings at Staples Center last season by double digits. The Kings are hoping to avoid losing there for a second straight night, having fallen 103-102 to the Clippers on Saturday. They rallied from a 20-point deficit, but DeMarcus Cousins missed a potential game-winning jumper at the buzzer. Sacramento’s average of 22.6 points in the first quarter is among the lowest in the NBA, including 19.8 on the road while going 1-3. Cousins has posted a season-best three straight double-doubles, averaging 23.0 points and 14.3 rebounds, but he’s scored 13.8 per game in nine career meetings with the Lakers. The Kings have surpassed 100 points in three consecutive games, and they’re facing a Los Angeles team that has held three straight opponents under that mark despite ranking among the NBA’s worst in points allowed at 103.2 per game. I like the Lakers in this spot with a lean to the game total going ‘under’.

Confirmed bets

Sacramento Kings @ Los Angeles Lakers -4 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (86-100)

Chicago Bulls @ Los Angeles Clippers +194.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (82-121)

Leans

Detroit Pistons @ Brooklyn Nets +190.5 WIN (109-907)

Phoenix Suns @ Orlando Magic WIN $1.83 LOSE (104-96)

Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder -13.5 $1.91 WIN (73-95)

Sacramento Kings @ Los Angeles Lakers -204 $1.91 WIN (86-100)

NHL for November 25

Ottawa Senators (9-10-4, 22pts) @ Carolina Hurricanes (8-10-5, 21pts), PNC Arena, Raleigh, NC, Monday, November 25, 9.10am

After a massive Sunday of action, we’re served up two pretty average contests today featuring some of the worst performed sides in the NHL so far this season. The best of the bad bunch is Ottawa, which heads to Carolina. The Hurricanes will try to snap their four-game skid by continuing their home dominance of the Senators here. Carolina (8-10-5) is struggling through a 4-8-2 stretch (through no fault of the Storm Squad, pictured) which began with a season-worst five-game slide from October 25-November 3. The Hurricanes are on the brink of matching that after losing 3-2 in overtime at Boston on Saturday. Carolina was outshot 26-10 in the first two periods and 38-24 overall. The Hurricanes have to like their chances after going 9-0-1 in their last 10 home games against Ottawa (9-10-4), including a 1-0 victory on February 1. They haven't lost in regulation to the Senators at PNC Arena since a 6-0 defeat on December 12, 2007.

Ottawa will try to build on a 4-2 win at Detroit on Saturday that snapped its losing streak at three games. Goaltender Robin Lehner, who had 34 saves against the Red Wings, may return to the bench in favour of Craig Anderson, despite compiling a 2.01 goals-against average while winning four of his last five games. Anderson has lost three of his last four with a 3.77 GAA, and he’s 2-1-3 with a 2.39 GAA over six career visits to Raleigh. Erik Karlsson leads all NHL defensemen with 24 points, but he’s recorded only one in seven career games at Carolina with none in the past three. The 2012 Norris Trophy winner had a pair of assists Saturday, giving him six points during a five-game streak. Bobby Ryan, facing the Hurricanes for the first time as a member of the Senators, has mustered just two assists in five previous meetings while with Anaheim.

Confirmed bet

Ottawa Senators WIN @ Carolina Hurricanes (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (1-4)

Leans

Detroit Red Wings @ Buffalo Sabres +5 $1.80 LOSE (3-1)

Ottawa Senators @ Carolina Hurricanes +5.5 $2.20 LOSE (1-4)

CFL (Grey Cup Championship Game) for November 25

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (12-8) @ Saskatchewan Roughriders (13-7), Mosaic Stadium at Taylor Field, Regina, SK, Monday, November 25, 10am

As regular followers of this blog will know, I’m a keen fan of Canadian football with the 2013 season culminating on Monday morning (Australian time) when the Saskatchewan Roughriders battle the upstart Hamilton Tiger-Cats for the 101st edition of the Grey Cup.  You might remember the item last week relating to the fierce wind that the Ti-Cats had to contend with in their East Division semi-final win over Montreal. That was nothing. Regina, Saskatchewan, is a little chilly at the moment. Temperatures on Wednesday, when the Tiger-Cats held practice outdoors, reached -16°C, with a wind chill of -24°C. Yesterday, when both the Ti-Cats and Roughriders practiced outside, the wind chill dipped to -31°C. To put that into perspective, the temperature is -36°C at the South Pole today.

Hamilton practiced outside because coaches wanted to start getting players acclimatised. However, they paid a heavy toll with assistant Paul Osbaldiston confirming several players suffered non-serious cases of frostbite. In addition, helmet visors frosted over, a playbook shattered into multiple pieces and four footballs cracked from the cold. In contrast, offensive lineman Joel Figueroa, who was born in Miami, was excited by the whole “snow” thing: “I kinda feel like a little kid out here.” The temperature at kick-off is expected to be a balmy -18°C. Similarly, the Tiger-Cats and Roughriders took very different routes to the Grey Cup final. Hamilton began its season plagued by injuries and uncertainty but is 11-4 since the end of July as veteran quarterback Henry Burris eyes his third Grey Cup championship.

The Tiger-Cats are making their first Grey Cup appearance since 1999, when they beat Calgary 32-21 for their eighth championship. Burris led the league in passing yards this season in part because of his deep and talented receiving corps, including Andy Fantuz, who had 114 yards on 11 catches against Toronto in the East final. Bakari Grant and Greg Ellingson have also been reliable targets for Burris, while rookie running back C.J. Gable has proven a capable receiver with 598 yards in the regular season. Linebackers Jamall Johnson, Brandon Isaac and Simoni Lawrence have gelled over the season to form the core of a versatile defence that appears ready for any challenge.

The Roughriders jumped out to a franchise-best 8-1 start before losing control of the West Division with some late-season stumbles, but recovered for two hard-fought playoff victories as they try to become the third consecutive team to win a Grey Cup at home. Saskatchewan is making its fourth Grey Cup final appearance in seven seasons after losing back-to-back finals in 2009 and 2010. The Roughriders last won the Cup in 2007, when they were coached by Kent Austin, who returned to the CFL this season to coach Hamilton and has led the Tiger-Cats to a decisive match-up against his old team.

Durant and running back Kory Sheets have been in top form through the first two playoff games, with Durant completing 43-of-53 passes for 550 yards and five touchdowns (while also scrambling for 115 yards on 10 carries) and Sheets rushing for 245 yards and a touchdown. Chris Getzlaf caught a TD in the West final despite playing with a knee injury, while Weston Dressler had 116 yards and a TD on five catches and Taj Smith added 60 receiving yards. Defensive end Ricky Foley has Saskatchewan’s only sack of the playoffs, while defensive tackle Jermaine McElveen caught a rare interception in the West final.

Confirmed bet

Hamilton Tiger-Cats +6.5 @ Saskatchewan Roughriders (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (23-45)

Lean

Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ Saskatchewan Roughriders +52 $1.91 WIN (23-45)

Motorsport for November 25

Formula 1 Brazil Grand Prix, Autódromo José Carlos Pace, São Paulo, Brazil, Monday, November 25, 3am

The 2013 Formula 1 season culminates here in Brazil and, after a wet few days for practice and qualifying, Sebastian Vettel has done it again to start pole for this race. Will he equal Alberto Ascari’s nine successive race wins? Other than the wet having a major effect, there is little reason to doubt he can. Nico Rosberg will start along side Vettel on the front row of the grid, with Fernando Alonso and Mark Webber (pictured) filling the second row. Unfortunately for his fans, it will be tough for Webber to win his final F1 race from this spot. Romain Grosjean will start fifth on the grid with Lewis Hamilton starting from position six. Although the winner of the constructor’s championship was determined several weeks ago (Red Bull Racing-Renault), the minor placings are still up for grabs with only 33 points separating Mercedes (second) and Lotus-Renault (fourth) with Ferrari in the sandwich.

Teamwork will be the order of the day because many millions of dollars are at stake based on team position at the end of the season. Mercedes is in the box seat with Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton having performed well in qualifying. It may come down to where Felipe Massa (Ferrari) and Heikki Kovalainen (Lotus) finish this race to determine the final standings. Weather could play an interesting part in this race with some chance of rain. Alonso will benefit if it is wet. Rosberg has been consistent in the latter part of the season except for last week the USA and could find the podium again. Romain Grosjean will be looking to give Lotus a chance in the constructor’s championship so should finish at least in the top six. Disappointing to see there are no markets listed on the likelihood of Webber steering his Red Bull into Vettel’s sidepod at some point during the race! (Preview by Stephen Doig)

Confirmed bets

Sebastian Vettel WIN (three units @ $1.33) WIN (1st)
Romain Grosjean TOP 6 (two units @ $1.33) LOSE (DNF)

Leans

Nico Rosberg TOP 3 $1.85 LOSE (5th)
Fernando Alonso TOP 6 $1.30 WIN (3rd)

H2H: Rosberg WIN v Hamilton $1.48 WIN

H2H: Ricciardo WIN v Vergne $1.58 WIN

NFL (week 12) for November 25 

Dallas Cowboys (5-5, 1-4 away) @ New York Giants (4-6, 3-2 home), MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ, Monday, November 25, 8.30am 

The quagmire that is the NFC East serves up an absolute ripper in week 12 as the resurgent New York Giants host the delusional Dallas Cowboys. After a horror start to the season, the Giants have won their past four (albeit against second string quarterbacks). The Dallas Cowboys are hoping a week off will help the league's worst defence demonstrate some much-needed improvement. There’s no way to spin how bad Dallas (5-5) has been defensively. The Cowboys are yielding an NFL-worst 456.7 yards per game, and a low point came in their 49-17 loss at New Orleans on November 10. Linebacker Sean Lee was lost to a hamstring injury in the first quarter and the Cowboys were horrendous, surrendering an NFL-record 40 first downs and 625 yards – two more than the franchise record set two weeks earlier in Detroit. Lee is out and fellow linebacker Justin Durant will also miss but defensive tackle Jason Hatcher will return after missing a week due to a neck injury.

The Cowboys have already allowed a league-record four 400-yard passers, and it may be surprising that Eli Manning (pictured) is one of them. Manning is enduring a difficult season with a passer rating of 70.8, his lowest since his rookie season. But his best effort came when he was 27 of 42 for 450 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions in a season-opening 36-31 loss at Dallas in which New York committed six turnovers. That was part of New York’s terrible start, and the team has more confidence now. Defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, who had a 24-yard interception return for a TD last weekend, was coming off off-season back surgery in that game. He spoke of beating the Cowboys this week, saying the Giants were “going to put it on them”, among other things. The Cowboys will also see one of their nemeses in Brandon Jacobs, who re-signed with New York on September 10. His 617 rushing yards against Dallas lead all active players. 

Confirmed bets

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants WIN (two units @ $1.74) LOSE (24-21)

Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 @ Cleveland Browns (two units @ $1.87) WIN (27-11)
San Diego Chargers +3.5 @ Kansas City Chiefs (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (41-38)
Jacksonville Jaguars +10 $1.91 @ Houston Texans (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (13-6)
New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens +39 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (3-19)
Tennessee Titans @ Oakland Raiders -44.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (23-19)
Denver Broncos WIN @ New England Patriots (one unit @ $1.77) LOSE (31-34)


Leans

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions +48.5 $1.91 LOSE (24-21)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans +43.5 LOSE (13-6)
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers -5.5 $1.91 LOSE (26-26)
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs +43 WIN (41-38)
Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins +5.5 $1.91 WIN (20-16)
Chicago Bears +1 $1.91 @ St. Louis Rams LOSE (21-42)
New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens -3.5 $1.87 WIN (3-19)
Tennessee Titans @ Oakland Raiders +1 $2.05 LOSE (23-19)
Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals -2 $1.91 WIN (11-40)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants +44.5 $1.91 WIN (24-21)
Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots +53 $1.91 WIN (31-34)

EPL for November 24-25 

Cardiff City (3-3-5) v Manchester United (6-2-3), Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff, Wales, Monday, November 25, 12.30am

It’s been a staggering 38 years – March 1975 – since Cardiff City played Manchester United in any competition. For the statos, Duncan Edwards made his debut for United, aged 16, in a match against Cardiff City. United have seldom lacked for top-class players, and the likes of Wayne Rooney and Robin van Persie will be the star attractions as Cardiff host the Red Devils in the top flight for the first time in more than 50 years. United are without Michael Carrick and Phil Jones because of respective Achilles and groin problems while van Persie and Danny Welbeck (pictured), both of whom withdrew from international duty because of injuries, will be assessed before kick-off. Prior to this weekend, van Persie was the leading Premier League scorer in 2013 with 19 goals. The Dutchman has scored in each of his last four top-flight appearances while the Red Devils are unbeaten in nine league and cup games (W6, D3). They have won their last three Premier League fixtures.

Cardiff have already claimed a couple of noteworthy scalps at home this season, beating 2011-12 champions Manchester City plus Welsh rivals Swansea City. Manchester United David Moyes knows this has the potential to be a boisterous and awkward afternoon if Malky Mackay’s team is given half a chance. Striker Peter Odemwingie has recovered from a minor muscle injury, while Aron Gunnarsson is fit despite hobbling off for Iceland on Tuesday. Andreas Cornelius, sidelined since August by an ankle injury, is also fit. Cardiff’s last win in this fixture was a 3-0 victory in a top-flight match at Ninian Park in November 1960. Cardiff is also looking to record back-to-back home wins in the top flight for the first time since April 1962, when they defeated Birmingham and then West Ham. Seven of the Bluebirds’ nine league goals this season have been scored after half-time and they’ve conceded six goals from outside the penalty area this season, a league high.

Confirmed bets

Cardiff City v Manchester United WIN (two units @ $1.62) LOSE (2-2)
Manchester City v Tottenham +2.5 (one unit @ $1.70) WIN (6-0)

Leans

Cardiff City v Manchester United (HT/FT double) $2.35 LOSE
Manchester City v Tottenham (Aguero score anytime) $2.00 WIN
 
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