Daily tips for November 2

Note: Bets are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).

Blog #200!

Last At Cannington turns 200 (well, in terms of days!) and I'd like to thank those who've supported the blog since April. In the coming weeks, I'll be making some exciting announcements about the future of the blog and the content featured here each day. Cheers, Sean.

Racing for November 2

Today's highlights

Flemington R1 G3 $200,000 Carbine Club Stakes (1600m, SWP, 3yos)

Flemington R2 G2 $300,000 Wakeful Stakes (2000m, SWP, 3yo fillies)

Flemington R3 G3 $300,000 Lexus Stakes (2500m, quality)

Flemington R4 G3 $500,000 Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m, set weights, 3yos)

Flemington R5 G1 $1 million Longines Mackinnon Stakes (2000m, WFA, 3yo+)

Flemington R6 G1 $1.5 million AAMI Victoria Derby (2500m, set weights, 3yos)

Flemington R7 G1 $500,000 Myer Classic (1600m, WFA, 3yo+ fillies & mares)

Flemington R8 G2 $300,000 Yellowglen Stakes (1200m, handicap)

Flemington R9 G3 $200,000 TAB.com.au Stakes (1400m, handicap)

Horse racing: Flemington (Vic), Rosehill (NSW), Eagle Farm (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Ascot (WA), Traralgon (Vic), Gold Coast (Qld), Newcastle (NSW), Dubbo (NSW), Mortlake (Vic), Pioneer Park (NT), Sunshine Coast (Qld – night). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Menangle (NSW), Shepparton (Vic), Canberra (ACT), Globe Derby (SA), Kalgoorlie (WA). Greyhound racing: The Gardens (NSW), Shepparton (Vic), Richmond (NSW), The Meadows (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Cannington (WA).

The AAMI Victoria Derby is the toughest race of the Melbourne Cup Carnival to find a winner. A bunch of 3yo contenders stepping up to 2500m with no exposed form greater than 2000m. I’ve never understood why the race wasn’t shortened to 2000m but the unpredictability of which horse will step up on the big stage is part of the package. It’s also been seven years since a favourite (Efficient in 2006) saluted in the VRC Derby underlining that it’s a tricky affair in the face of often overwhelming evidence. Let’s start with the profile of a horse that is most likely to contend here. Firstly, the 2500m start at Flemington means runners have barely 200 metres to find a good position in the running before the first turn. The two major lead-up races for the Derby are the Vase (run at Moonee Valley last Saturday) and the Norman Robinson (run at Caulfield two weeks ago).

History shows that the Derby winner is more likely to have run in the Vase than the Norman Robinson. Amalfi (2001) was the last Derby winner to have taken out the Norman Robinson. Next is one of the strongest filters that can be applied to the Derby. No Derby winner has been unplaced in his lead-up start for the past two decades. History also shows that 3yos benefit from a long preparation heading into their ‘grand final’. Of the past 20 Derby winners, 13 have won the race at their sixth or higher run for the preparation. This also underlines the importance of the actual birthdate of the horse, as some may have just turned three or may even still be 2yos. Some horses are having their first ever preparation when running in the Derby, but only three have won in the past 20 years.

Not surprisingly, these factors suggest that the three of the top horses in the market – #3 Savvy Nature, #1 Criterion and #4 Polanski – are best placed in the Derby. Indeed, favourite Savvy Nature is the only horse that meets all the criteria detailed above. Another leading contender, #2 Complacent, is also highly ranked along with two at an excellent price – #9 Epic Saga ($41) and #11 Pinstripe Lane ($27). Purely on merit, I loved the run of Polanski (pictured with trainer Robbie Laing, thanks to heraldsun.com.au) in winning the Norman Robinson but the ‘fairytale’ story of his purchase for $4000 has flooded the mainstream media and I suspect he’ll end up under the odds (I have him rated at $6). I realise everyone wants a tip for the feature race of the day, but I’ll only be playing the value here – much richer pickings elsewhere today!

Confirmed bets


Flemington R2 #2 May's Dream (win) LOSE (2nd) 
Flemington R5 #3 Side Glance (E/W) 1st ($14.00/$3.50)
Flemington R8 #8 Albrecht (E/W) LOSE (U/P) 
Flemington R9 #3 Galah (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($1.90)
Rosehill R1 #4 White Sage (win) 1st ($1.55)
Rosehill R8 #3 King Cobia (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($1.90)

Eagle Farm R6 #1 Whiskey Allround (win) LOSE (4th) 
Ascot R1 #2 Ora Dare (win) LOSE (3rd)

Suggested quadrella (Flemington)

R6: 2,3,4,9 

R7: 1,2,3,4

R8: 1,7,8,11,14,17 

R9: 1,3,8

$75 = 21%

Leans

Flemington R1 #4 Equator (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.60)
Flemington R2 #3 Arabian Gold (place) LOSE (4th)
Flemington R4 #9 Missy Longstocking (place) LOSE (U/P)

Flemington R5 #1 Mourayan (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Flemington R6 #4 Polanski (E/W) 1st ($5.50/$2.10)
Flemington R6 #9 Epic Saga (place) LOSE (U/P)
Flemington R7 #5 Xanadu (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Rosehill R4 #2 Zaratone (E/W 1x2) LOSE (U/P)
Rosehill R5 #4 The Offer (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($1.90)
Rosehill R7 #7 Taxmeifyoucan (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.50)
Rosehill R8 #6 Solemn (E/W) 2nd ($3.50)

Eagle Farm R3 #4 Elmantosh (E/W 1x3) 1st ($2.80/$1.40) 
Eagle Farm R5 Boxed Trifecta 5/6/8 LOSE

Eagle Farm R7 #3 Morning Captain (E/W 1x3)

Morphettville R2 #1 Natural Disaster (E/W) 3rd (NTD)
Morphettville R9 #5 Benefit (E/W 1x2)

Ascot R7 #6 Vermeer (E/W 1x2)

Ascot R8 #5 Elite Bell (win)

College Football (week 10) for November 2

Pac-12: USC Trojans (5-3, 2-2 Pac-12) @ Oregon State Beavers (6-2, 4-1 Pac-12), Reser Stadium, Corvallis, OR, Saturday, November 2, noon

USC’s stellar defence will to be put to the test against Oregon State at Reser Stadium, where the Trojans haven’t won since 2004. The Trojans held Utah to 201 total yards in a 19-3 victory last week, but weren’t facing Beavers QB Sean Mannion (pictured), who leads the nation in passing yards and touchdown passes. USC has been ravaged by injuries, especially to its offensive line and receiving corps, and All-American receiver Marqise Lee (knee) is expected to miss at least one more week. The Trojans dropped to 116th in the country on third-down conversions with a 27.6-percent success rate after going 3-for-15 against Utah. Andre Heidari kicked four field goals against the Utes to lead USC’s offense, which needs to see continued growth from sophomore quarterback Cody Kessler. The injury bug has impacted the entire roster, but defensive end Leonard Williams has been a constant force while leading the Trojans in tackles (54), tackles for loss (11) and sacks (five).

Oregon State bounced back from its season-opening loss to FCS team Eastern Washington with six straight wins before yielding eight sacks in a 20-12 loss to Stanford last week. After struggling against Stanford, the Beavers' offensive line squares off against a USC squad that leads the Pac-12 in total defense and forced four Utah turnovers last week. Brandin Cooks leads the nation in receiving yards, receptions and receiving TDs, but the Beavers rank 122nd among 123 FBS teams in rushing at 66.6 yards per game. The Beavers are coming off their best defensive game of the season, and are ranked tied for fifth nationally in turnover margin and tied for sixth in interceptions. USC leads the all-time series 59-11-4, but Oregon State has won three of the past five meetings and the home team is 7-1 ATS in the past eight meetings. USC are a woeful 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games.

Confirmed bet

USC @ Oregon State -51.5 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (31-14)

Leans

USC @ Oregon State -4.5 $1.91 LOSE (31-14)

Oregon State TT -29.5 $2.00 WIN (31-14)

NHL for November 2

New York Islanders (4-5-3, 11pts) @ Ottawa Senators (4-6-2, 10pts), Canadien Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON, Canada, Saturday, November 2, 10.40am

Leaky defence looks set to characterise this match-up in the Canadian capital as the Islanders visit the Senators. Both have lost four of five, with the Islanders (4-5-3) allowing at least three goals in each and the Senators (4-6-2) surrendering 11 goals over back-to-back losses. Each club permits 3.1 goals per game, ranking near the bottom of the league. New York's penalty kill has been lacking, allowing opponents to convert 3 of 7 chances in consecutive defeats, including two goals on four opportunities in Wednesday’s 3-2 loss to the Rangers. The Islanders also went scoreless on six power plays in those two losses after going 7 for 18 in their previous five games. Seeking his first goal as an Islander will be Thomas Vanek, who didn't record a point against the Rangers after being acquired from Buffalo on Sunday in exchange for Matt Moulson and two draft picks. Vanek was slotted on the team's top line alongside Kyle Okposo and John Tavares, who had a 10-game point streak snapped. Vanek is without a point in his last five meetings with Ottawa.

Mediocre goaltending from Craig Anderson (pictured) has hurt the Senators. He’s allowed 11 goals on 69 shots in losses to San Jose and Chicago, including a hat trick to Jonathan Toews in Tuesday’s 6-5 loss to the Blackhawks. After blowing a 4-3 second-intermission lead against the Blackhawks, coach Paul MacLean experimented with various combinations among forwards and defensemen at practice on Thursday, particularly at the blue line. But Anderson, who had gone 4-2-2 with a .930 save percentage in his first eight starts, also pointed to the defence in front of him. The Senators surrendered 40 shots to the Blackhawks, and are allowing an NHL-worst 37.0 per game. Anderson is 3-0-1 with a 0.99 goals-against average in his last four starts versus New York. Jason Spezza has eight points in his last six games against the Islanders. The Senators are 8 for 20 on power plays during their current 5-1-0 stretch in the series, while the Islanders are 1 for 22. I have the slightest of leans towards the home team here but the game total looks far more attractive.

Confirmed bets

New York Islanders @ Ottawa Senators +5.5 (two units @ $1.80) WIN (5-4)
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Carolina Hurricanes +5.5 (one unit @ $1.87) LOSE (3-0)

St. Louis Blues TT +2.5 @ Florida Panthers (one unit @ $1.60) WIN (4-0)

Leans

Washington Capitals WIN @ Philadelphia Flyers $1.80 WIN (7-0)

Columbus Blue Jackets @ Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5 $2.60 WIN (2-4)

Tampa Bay Lightning WIN $1.80 @ Carolina Hurricanes WIN (3-0)

St. Louis Blues WIN $1.55 @ Florida Panthers WIN (4-0)

Montreal Canadiens @ Minnesota Wild +5 $1.95 WIN (3-4)

Colorado Avalanche @ Dallas Stars 1P +1.5 $2.11 LOSE (1-0)

Detroit Red Wings @ Calgary Flames WIN $1.95 LOSE (4-3)

Grand Salami +44.5 $1.91 WIN (48)

NBA for November 2

Dallas Mavericks (1-0, 0-0 away) @ Houston Rockets (1-0, 1-0 home), Toyota Center, Houston, TX, Saturday, November 2, 11.10am

Dallas owner Mark Cuban stirred the pot ahead of this cross-state meeting when he stated that Houston’s prize recruit Dwight Howard (pictured) made a poor decision leaving the Lakers for the Rockets. Howard's first game in Houston went about as well as could be expected when he scored 17 points on 8-of-14 shooting and pulled down a career high-tying 26 rebounds in Thursday’s 96-83 win over Charlotte. The Rockets (1-0) are hoping Howard will inject even more enthusiasm into the team and its fan base than James Harden and Jeremy Lin did last year. Harden scored a game-high 21 points against the Bobcats, while Lin added 16 off the bench. Starting point guard Patrick Beverley left the game in the second quarter with bruised ribs and did not return. Omer Asik started at center and finished with 14 rebounds as coach Kevin McHale elected to go with a big starting five. The move paid off, with the Rockets limiting the Bobcats to 36.7 per cent shooting (33 of 90) and owning the glass by a 54-37 margin.

Cuban is still steaming after his Mavericks lost the recruiting battle for Howard to the Rockets, but Cuban believes that's because the big man made a bad decision. "Obviously, he made a mistake in judgment. Do I blame him? No, that's what young kids do. They make mistakes in judgment." The Mavericks (1-0) went 44 of 77 from the floor, including 11 of 24 from 3-point range, in a 118-109 season-opening win over Atlanta on Thursday. They seek their first 2-0 start since 2004-05. Monta Ellis scored 32 on 11-of-17 shooting with eight assists in his Mavs debut after signing a three-year deal in the off-season. Dirk Nowitzki, who missed last year’s opener while recovering from knee surgery, added 24 points. He was 8 of 14 from the floor and 4 of 6 from 3-point range. The Mavericks have won 10 of 11 against the Rockets dating to November 29, 2010, including three of four last season. During his one season with the Lakers in 2012-13, Howard went 3-1 against Dallas, averaging 16.8 points and 10.5 rebounds.

Confirmed bets

Dallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets +204.5 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (105-113)

New Orleans Pelicans @ Orlando Magic -195 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (90-110)

Detroit Pistons TT -90.5 @ Memphis Grizzlies (one unit @ $1.87) LOSE (95-95)

Leans

Cleveland Cavaliers -3 $1.91 @ Charlotte Bobcats LOSE (84-90)

Philadelphia 76ers @ Washington Wizards NO LEAN

Toronto Raptors +3.5 $1.91 @ Atlanta Hawks LOSE (95-102)

Milwaukee Bucks +2 $1.91 @ Boston Celtics WIN (105-98)

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Minnesota Timberwolves -201.5 $1.91 WIN (81-100)

Miami Heat 1-10 $2.75 @ Brooklyn Nets LOSE (100-101)

Portland Trailblazers @ Denver Nuggets -198 $1.91 LOSE (113-98)

Utah Jazz +3.5 $1.91 @ Phoenix Suns WIN (84-87)

Los Angeles Clippers @ Sacramento Kings +202 $1.91 WIN (110-101)

San Antonio Spurs -8 $1.91 @ Los Angeles Lakers LOSE (91-85)

CFL (week 19) for November 2

Calgary Stampeders (14-3) @ BC Lions (10-7), BC Place, Vancouver, BC, Saturday, November 2, 1.10pm

Punters should tread carefully in the opening two games of week 19 in Canadian football as all four combatants have secured playoff berths and cannot advance their respective positions heading into next week’s conference semi-finals. It’s a case of the old argument pitting momentum against resting starters in preparation for a charge to the Grey Cup final. The BC Lions are 7-1 at home and can tie Calgary for the best home record in the league with victory here, while the Stampeders are looking for their sixth straight win. Quarterback Kevin Glenn started Calgary’s last game, but Drew Tate (pictured) finished it and looks to have regained his spot atop the depth chart. Defensive lineman Charleston Hughes and running back Jon Cornish were both named players of the week. Hughes received defensive honours for his three-sack performance, which vaulted him into the league lead with 18 while Cornish was named Canadian player of the week for the seventh time in 2013 after adding to his league-leading rushing yards total of 1799. Slotback Marquay McDaniel reached 1000 receiving yards for the first time in his fifth CFL season.

BC quarterback Buck Pierce provided the spark that snapped the Lions out of their three-game losing streak last week, tossing three touchdown passes against the Edmonton Eskimos in his first real action with BC since being traded. With Travis Lulay still nursing a shoulder injury and back-up Thomas DeMarco struggling, the Lions will need Pierce’s veteran leadership if they hope to make a dent in the playoffs. A strong performance against the Stampeders, who have one of the top defenses in the league, would go a long way to giving BC some confidence heading into the postseason. Pierce is 17-for-27 since arriving back in BC and has targets such as slotback Nick Moore, who reached 1000 receiving yards for the first time and has replaced Geroy Simon as the Lions’ top option in the air. Linebacker Adam Bighill has had another stellar season with a team-leading 89 tackles and eight sacks despite missing time early on due to injuries. Cornerback Cord Parks has six interceptions – one behind league-leader Geoff Tisdale of Montreal.

Confirmed bet

Calgary Stampeders @ BC Lions game total +52.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (7-26)

Leans

Montreal Alouettes @ Toronto Argonauts WIN $1.87 LOSE (23-20)

Rugby League (World Cup) for November 2

Group B: New Zealand v France, Parc Des Sports, Avignon, France, Saturday, November 2, 6am

The 2013 Rugby League World Cup has provided great punting (and profit) across the first week and I’m hoping it continues with arguably the best bet of the tournament to date. It’s been 13 years since New Zealand embarrassed France in the quarter-finals of the 2000 World Cup, but the hosts here have the perfect opportunity to exact some revenge. The winner will sew up a quarter-final berth against the winner of Group C (Scotland, Tonga or Italy). This match, to be staged in Avignon, is the first of two games the French are hosting in the World Cup. The Tricolours’ final group game against Samoa on November 11 will be played in Perpignan. Veteran prop Jamal Fakir had run more than 100m just twice in his 27 games for the Dragons in the Super League this year, so his 136-metre effort against a tough Papua New Guinean pack was a herculean effort. His front row partner Remi Casty (pictured) made just 86 metres and 37 tackles against PNG, but will be primed for a big performance against future NRL Roosters team-mates Sonny-Bill Williams, Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Frank-Paul Nuuausala.

The defending champions will be out to atone for a poor second-half showing against Samoa in their first game. The Kiwis led 36-4 before letting the Samoans back into the game. They’ll also be without Sonny Bill Williams after the Roosters star was left out of their team to face France, in order to give more game time to Alex Glenn and Frank Pritchard. The Kiwis might be playing on foreign soil, but they do have experience in beating the French on their home turf. The last time New Zealand played France was during the Four Nations in 2009, when they racked up a 62-12 victory in Toulouse. They mightn’t be directly opposite each other but chances are there will at least be one highlight between French full-back Morgan Escare and Kiwi winger Roger Tuivasa-Sheck. The two air-walkers possess an uncanny ability to score tries. The Kiwis deserve to be favourites here but the 32.5 points on offer looks ridiculous. New Zealand can turn in the odd inconsistent performance and, in a tournament of this magnitude, upsets aren’t uncommon.

Confirmed bet

New Zealand v France +29.5 (one unit @ $2.10) LOSE (48-0)

Leans

New Zealand 1-12 v France $7.00 LOSE (48-0)

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