Daily tips for November 16

Note: Bets are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).

Racing for November 16

Today’s highlights

Caulfield R3 G3 $150,000 Snowhite Maintenance Eclipse Stakes (1800m, quality) 

Caulfield R5 G3 $135,000 Ronald McDonald House Monash Sandown Stakes (1400m, quality) 

Caulfield R6 G2 $350,000 Deadly Design Zipping Classic (2400m, WFA)

Caulfield R7 G2 $350,000 Sportingbet Sandown Guineas (1600m, set weights, 3yos)

Caulfield R8 G3 $135,000 TMB Printing Kevin Heffernan Stakes (1200m, WFA)
Caulfield R9 G3 $135,000 Le Pine Funerals Summoned Stakes (1600m, SWP, 4yo+ mares)
Ascot R6 G3 $200,000 Skyy Vodka WA Champion Fillies Stakes (1600m, set weights, 3yo fillies)
Ascot R7 G3 $125,000 RJ Peters Stakes (1500m, handicap, 3yo+)
Riccarton R8 G1 $250,000 Christchurch Casino 150th New Zealand Cup (3200m, handicap)

Horse racing: Caulfield (Vic), Rosehill (NSW), Eagle Farm (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Ascot (WA), Gundagai (NSW), Dunkeld (Vic), Kembla Grange (NSW), Gold Coast (Qld), Roma (Qld), Wellington (NSW), Darwin (NT), Esperance (WA), Sunshine Coast (Qld – night). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Menangle (NSW), Melton (Vic), Globe Derby (SA), Dubbo (NSW), Bunbury (WA). Greyhound racing: The Gardens (NSW), Bendigo (Vic), The Meadows (Vic), Richmond (NSW), Wentworth Park (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Cannington (WA).

With the $3.2 million upgrade to Sandown not scheduled for completion until January, its premier meeting – the Zipping Classic – has been transferred to Caulfield. It’s a terrific card with still plenty of quality runners seeking a slice of the Spring Carnival spoils. I’m expecting the Caulfield track to race evenly after heavy midweek rain but, as always, watched the early races for signs of any bias. My best on the card comes up in the final race – the Summoned Stakes over 1600m for the mares. It hasn’t been a great carnival for Peter Moody or Luke Nolen but I’m expecting they’ll get the win here with #10 Floria. She was a last-start sixth in the G1 Myer Classic and is making just her third start for this preparation in contrast to most the field here. The 6yo mare also ran into Red Tracer in the G2 Dane Ripper at Eagle Farm after placing fourth in the Scone Cup behind Speediness. She looks the good here.

Confirmed bets

Caulfield R4 #3 Melrose Place (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Caulfield R6 #2 Sertorius (E/W 1x3) 1st ($3.80/$1.60)

Caulfield R9 #10 Floria (E/W 1x4) 1st ($2.70/$1.60)

Rosehill R6 #2 Alma’s Fury (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Rosehill R7 #10 Specific Choice (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.30)

Rosehill R8 #14 Koroibete (E/W 1x2) 1st ($3.50/$1.80)

Eagle Farm R3 #1 Nuptse (E/W) LOSE (4th) 
Ascot R1 #2 Testamezzo (win) 1st ($2.60)

Morphettville R3 #7 Big On Bling (win) LOSE (U/P)

Leans

Caulfield R2 #3 Caravan Rolls On (win) 1st ($2.20)

Caulfield R3 #9 Savitar (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Caulfield R5 #2 Lord Of Brazil (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Caulfield R7 #3 Equator (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($1.90)

Caulfield R8 #10 Famous Seamus (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($2.50)

Rosehill R3 #1,3-4 Exacta WIN 1,3 ($7.50)

Rosehill R4 #8 Sindarin (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Rosehill R5 #7 Cape Kidnappers (win) LOSE (2nd)

Eagle Farm R4 #6 Plumage (E/W) 3rd ($2.60)

Eagle Farm R6 #1 Dalton (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Eagle Farm R7 #2 Fillydelphia (E/W) 1st ($5.80/$2.30)

Morphettville R4 #3 Goldbya (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.35)
Morphettville R5 #7 Mossego (E/W 1x3) 1st ($4.00/$1.55)

Morphettville R7 #2 Potiche (win) LOSE (U/P)

Ascot R6 #2 Miss Rose De Lago (win) 1st ($1.80)

Ascot R7 #4 Rohan (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.30)

Ascot R8 #9 Mr Utopia (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

College Football (week 12) for November 16

Pac-12: Washington Huskies (6-3, 3-3 Pac-12) @ UCLA Bruins (7-2, 4-2 Pac-12), Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA, Saturday, November 16, 1pm

UCLA freshman Myles Jack (pictured with coach Jim Mora, thanks to latimes.com) probably won’t kick any field goals when the No. 15 Bruins host Washington, but even that can’t be ruled out after last week’s performance. The talented linebacker/running back sparked the Bruins’ 31-26 victory over Arizona with eight tackles while rushing for 120 yards on six carries, including a 66-yard touchdown. He’ll need another big game for the Bruins to keep pace with Washington, which has averaged 50 points and amassed 1270 yards of total offence in the last two games. UCLA is in position to win the Pac-12 South Division for the second time in two seasons after winning for the seventh time in nine games. The Huskies’ secondary may also want to be ready for QB Brett Hundley, who has thrown long TD passes early in the first quarter of the Bruins’ past two games. Hundley has completed 74 per cent of his passes over the last three games, and is also been the team’s leading rusher over the past five games. The Bruins boast an embarrassment of riches at linebacker, where Jack joins Eric Kendricks, Anthony Barr and Jordan Zumwalt.

But Washington, which gained bowl eligibility with last week’s 59-6 rout of Colorado, certainly has the offensive firepower to derail UCLA’s Rose Bowl hopes. Quarterback Keith Price threw two touchdowns and ran for two more against Colorado, and running back Bishop Sankey surpassed 100 yards rushing for the seventh time this season. Sankey, third in the nation at 145.0 yards per game, has tallied 384 and three scores in his last two games. He'll face a UCLA defence that allowed Arizona’s Ka’Deem Carey, the country’s second-leading rusher, to run for 149 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins recorded a season-high 62 receiving yards, and coach Steve Sarkisian indicated the team would look to get the pre-season All-American more involved this week. Safety Sean Parker has a team-high four interceptions for the Huskies, who rank second in the Pac-12 in pass defence. Following a three-game losing streak to No. 5 Stanford, then-No. 2 Oregon and Arizona State, Washington is back on track after racking up 1270 total yards in blowout wins over California and the Buffaloes.

Confirmed bet

Washington Huskies @ UCLA Bruins +59.5 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (31-41)

Lean

Washington Huskies @ UCLA Bruins -3 $1.87 WIN (31-41)

NHL for November 16

Toronto Maple Leafs (11-6-1, 23pts) @ Buffalo Sabres (4-15-1, 9pts), First Niagara Center, Buffalo, NY, Saturday, November 16, 11.10am

The Buffalo Sabres have made their worst start to an NHL season in 20 years. Predictably, owner Terry Pegula fired general manager Darcy Regier and coach Ron Rolston last week and installed former star Pat LaFontaine (pictured) to oversee hockey operations while Ted Nolan steps behind the Sabres' bench for the first time in almost 17 years as interim coach against the visiting Toronto Maple Leafs. Absent from the playoffs the past two seasons, Buffalo (4-15-1) has the fewest points in the NHL. The Sabres got their first win in 10 home games with a 3-2 shootout victory over Los Angeles on Tuesday but that couldn’t save Regier and Rolston. The 55-year-old Nolan went 73-72-19 and won a Jack Adams Award while coaching in Buffalo from 1995-97. He inherits a team that has four players under the age of 20 on the current roster and is scoring a league-worst 1.65 goals per game. The Sabres look to win consecutive games for the first time this season.

Hodgson has been one of the few bright spots while leading Buffalo with seven goals and eight assists. The Toronto native had three assists during the Sabres’ 5-4 home shootout victory over the Maple Leafs on March 21 in the teams' most recent meeting. Toronto (11-6-1) has earned five points in the last three games against the Sabres and owns one of the Eastern Conference’s best records, but expects a serious challenge from a team filled with some renewed purpose. Toronto has recorded three regulation goals while going 1-2-1 following a three-game winning streak during which it scored four times in each contest. Mason Raymond gave the Maple Leafs a 1-0 lead in the second period at Minnesota on Wednesday, but the Wild tied it late in the third and won 2-1 in a shootout. The Maple Leafs will be without forward Nazem Kadri, who was suspended for three games without pay by the NHL on Thursday for a hit to Minnesota goalie Niklas Backstrom’s head. Kadri has five goals and nine assists in 18 games.

Confirmed bets

Toronto Maple Leafs WIN @ Buffalo Sabres (two units @ $1.80) LOSE (1-3)

Florida Panthers @ Minnesota Wild TT +2.5 (two units @ $1.62) WIN (2-3) 

Nashville Predators @ Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5 (one unit @ $2.40) WIN (1-4) 

Boston Bruins WIN @ Ottawa Senators (one unit @ $1.83) LOSE (2-4)

Leans

Los Angeles Kings @ New Jersey Devils WIN $1.87 LOSE (2-0) 

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Buffalo Sabres -5 $2.20 WIN (1-3) 

Anaheim Ducks @ Carolina Hurricanes WIN $1.91 WIN (2-3)

Montreal Canadiens @ Columbus Blue Jackets WIN $1.91 LOSE (3-2)

Washington Capitals WIN $2.20 @ Detroit Red Wings WIN (4-3)
Boston Bruins @ Ottawa Senators +5 $1.77 WIN (2-4)
Florida Panthers @ Minnesota Wild WIN NT $1.70 WIN (2-3)

Philadelphia Flyers WIN $2.10 @ Winnipeg Jets LOSE (2-3)

San Jose Sharks WIN $1.62 @ Edmonton Oilers +5.5 $1.91 WIN (3-1)

NBA for November 16

Detroit Pistons (2-5, 0-3 away) @ Sacramento Kings (2-5, 2-3 home), Sleep Train Arena, Sacramento, CA, Saturday, November 16, 2.40pm

There are some real trap games on today’s packed card of 11 NBA games so it’s not without some trepidation that I’ve had to consider the Kings as one of the safer tips on the slate! Both Sacramento and visitors Detroit are 2-5 and, although the Pistons have had the better of the Kings in recent meetings, they’re on a four-game losing streak. It’s also a showcase game for two of the emerging big men who were selected two spots apart in the 2010 draft – DeMarcus Cousins (pictured) and Greg Monroe. Sacramento chose Cousins fifth overall and Detroit selected Monroe seventh in 2010, and both are key components for these rebuilding teams. Cousins is among the league leaders at 22.3 points per game, and Monroe is second on the Pistons with a scoring average of 17.6. Detroit is 5-1 in this series since these players joined these teams. Monroe is averaging 15.2 points on 56.7 percent shooting along with 9.5 rebounds per game in those meetings while Cousins is averaging 17.0 points on 46.6 per cent shooting along with 10.5 rebounds per contest.

Interior play could prove to be critical since neither team shoots three-pointers well. Sacramento is sixth-worst in the league at 30.7 per cent and Detroit is third-worst at 27.4. While Sacramento turned in its best defensive effort in its last game, Detroit was once again abysmal at that end of the floor its last time out. The Kings ended a five-game slide with a 107-86 home rout of Brooklyn on Wednesday, limiting the Nets to 37.8 per cent shooting – a season low for a Sacramento opponent. The Pistons’ losing streak reached four on Wednesday with a 113-95 defeat at Golden State, which shot 60.0 per cent to match the best effort by any team this season. Detroit is last in the NBA in opponent field-goal percentage at 49.3. The Pistons trailed by as many as 29 points against the Warriors. For Sacramento, Cousins was limited to 15 points Wednesday after tallying 68 in his last two games. Marcus Thornton helped pick up the slack with 24 points as part of a bench that scored 57. Kings reserves are averaging 43.0 points to rank third in the NBA.

Confirmed bets

Detroit Pistons @ Sacramento Kings WIN (1.5 units @ $1.77) LOSE (97-90)

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets WIN (one unit @ $2.00) WIN (113-117)  
Brooklyn Nets WIN @ Phoenix Suns (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (100-98) 
Charlotte Bobcats @ Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (86-80)

Portland Trail Blazers @ Boston Celtics +2 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (109-96)

Leans

Milwaukee Bucks @ Indiana Pacers -14.5 $1.91 WIN (77-104)

Chicago Bulls @ Toronto Raptors +182 $1.91 LOSE (96-80)

Dallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat +208.5 $1.91 WIN (104-110)
Philadelphia 76ers @ Atlanta Hawks 1H -104 $1.90 LOSE (54-56) 
Charlotte Bobcats @ Cleveland Cavaliers +189 $1.91 LOSE (86-80)
San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz +9.5 $1.91 WIN (91-82)
Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Lakers +198.5 $1.91 LOSE (89-86)

Detroit Pistons @ Sacramento Kings -196.5 $1.91 WIN (97-90)

Football (World Cup playoffs) for November 16

Europe group playoffs, first leg: Portugal v Sweden, Estadio da Luz, Lisbon, Portugal, Saturday, November 16, 6.45am

Cristiano Ronaldo v Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Portugal v Sweden. They’re match-ups that belong in the second round or quarter-finals of the World Cup finals. Instead, they’re battling for just one spot at Brazil 2014. Indeed, this marks the third successive major tournament that Portugal has featured in a playoff battle having qualified at the death for the 2010 World Cup finals and Euro 2012. Their campaign has been a disappointment – Group F winners Russia are a reasonable side, it has been more a case of Portugal losing the group rather than the Russians going out and winning it. Manager Paulo Bento's side flattered to deceive throughout qualifying, recording poor results at home to Israel and Northern Ireland (both 1-1 draws) as well as drawing 3-3 in Tel Aviv (after being 3-1 with 20 minutes left). The status of midfielder Miguel Veloso, who left training with pain in his knee, is the only injury concern. Fabio Coentrao and Joao Pereira both entered camp with nagging injuries but should be available barring a setback. Portugal have won eight of their last nine with the only loss coming against Brazil).

In contrast, Sweden has achieved the maximum that could have realistically been expected of them after they were drawn along side Germany in Group C. The Germans amassed an imposing 28 points from the 30 available; the only two points they dropped came in that astonishing 4-4 draw in Berlin against the Swedes in which the visitors fought back gamely from a 4-1 deficit. Sweden doesn’t boast the talent at Portugal’s disposal but as long as Ibrahimovic is on the pitch, anything can happen. He bagged 30 goals last season to help Paris St Germain to its first title in almost two decades and scored six goals to Ronaldo's four during qualifying. Ibrahimovic and Ronaldo (pictured), who will face Sweden despite a foot problem, both go into this game having scored hat-tricks for Real Madrid and PSG respectively at the weekend. Sweden has failed to record a victory against Portugal in seven attempts, a run dating back to 1984. The Swedes will be desperate to take something back to Solna next week but the home side have the edge here.

Confirmed bets

Portugal WIN v Sweden (two units @ $1.62) WIN (1-0)

Iceland (double chance) v Croatia (one unit @ $1.83) WIN (0-0)

Ukraine (double chance) v France (one unit @ $1.62) WIN (2-0)

Leans

Iceland v Croatia HT 0-0 $2.60 WIN (0-0)

Portugal v Sweden BTS $2.05 LOSE (1-0)

Ukraine v France DRAW $3.10 LOSE (2-0)

Greece WIN v Romania $2.00 WIN (3-1)

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