Daily tips for November 30

Note 1: Bets are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).


Harness racing for November 30

G1 $750,000 SEW Eurodrive Miracle Mile (1609 metres), TABCORP Park Menangle, NSW, Saturday, November 30, 9.30pm

It’s the turn of the harness racing fraternity to occupy the racing spotlight tonight with the running of the $750,000 SEW Eurodrive Miracle Mile at TABCORP Park Menangle at 9.30pm. The race was first held in 1967 as the Craven Filter Miracle Mile and, at that time, it was the richest sprint race ever staged in trotting in the Southern Hemisphere and attracted a crowd of 20,287 to Harold Park. Australasian pacing's premier speed-test has brought together another exceptional field over the “flying mile”, with the track record of 1:48.5 likely to be tested if the rain stays away. In a strong field, there is none stronger than dual Miracle Mile winner, the 11yo Smoken Up (pictured). The Lance Justice-trained and driven champion holds the track record and made his way in to the field with an impressive win in last week's Cordina Sprint, breaking 1:50 for the mile leading all the way from barrier 9. Drawn barrier 1, Justice has promised an aggressive drive to either hold the lead, or if crossed to come off the fence and pour the pressure on.

The main danger will start on the shoulder of Smoken Up. For a Reason (trainer Belinda McCarthy; driver Luke McCarthy) starts from barrier 2 and will be hoping for plenty of speed as he sits just off the pace and tries to run over the top of tiring leaders. After a two-year injury absence the 7yo has returned in very good form with five runs, all over the mile at Menangle, for three wins and two seconds including 1:49.4 and 1:50.0 wins by 20m. There is little doubt that he is in this to his eyeballs. The best outsider is Terror to Love (trainer Graham Court; driver Ricky May), which finished second in last season’s Mile, coming from last at the 400m in a last quarter of 27.7 to fall just short. He was a last start winner of the NZ Cup over 3200 metres! If the pace is torrid he will be coming hard from near the back of the field, having drawn wide in 7, and will be hitting the line hardest.

Confirmed bets

Menangle R3 #10 Amore Stride (E/W 1x2) 1st ($5.90/$2.00)

Menangle R5 Boxed exacta 3-10 LOSE (10-5)

Menangle R8 #1 Smoken Up (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Racing for November 30

Today’s highlights

Rosehill R6 Listed $100,000 Blackwoods Stanley Dewalt Festival Stakes  (1500m, quality, 3yo+)

Rosehill R7 Listed $100,000 Blackwoods Alemlube Starlight Stakes (1100m, quality, 3yo+)

Caulfield R7 BM96 $100,000 CFV Ambassadors Plate (2000m, handicap)

Horse racing: Caulfield (Vic), Rosehill (NSW), Doomben (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Ascot (WA), Hawkesbury (NSW), Cranbourne (Vic), Gold Coast (Qld), Yarra Glen (Vic), Gunnedah (NSW), Wagga (NSW), Esperance (WA). Harness racing: Leeton (NSW), Albion Park (Qld), Menangle (NSW), Globe Derby (SA), Gloucester Park (WA), Melton (Vic). Greyhound racing: Shepparton (Vic), The Meadows (Vic), Richmond (NSW), The Gardens (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Cannington (WA), Wentworth Park (NSW).

It may be the day before the start of summer, but Melbourne is serving up cool and breezy conditions for the eight-race card scheduled at Caulfield today, which will be run on a dead (4) with the rail out nine metres. I’m expecting the track to favour on-pacers, which will suit #4 Gracious Prospect in the CRV Hospital Helping Hand Plate (race 3) over 1400 metres. It looks as if the 3yo colt will take up a prominent position from barrier 6 for Stephen Baster and make its own luck in the eight-horse field. He’s a last start winner at Geelong for his first victory in 14 starts and is priced in our favour at $5 (I have him rated at $3).

Confirmed bets

Caulfield R1 #6 Nordic Empire (E/W) 1st ($5.10/$1.70)
Caulfield R3 #4 Gracious Prospect (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.60)

Caulfield R7 #8 Multilateral (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($1.70)

Rosehill R5 #10 Specific Choice (win) LOSE (U/P)

Rosehill R7 #3 Zaratone (E/W 1x2) 1st ($6.80/$1.90)

Doomben R6 #5 Rudy (win) 1st ($2.60)

Morphettville R6 #3 Detox (win) LOSE (U/P)

Ascot R2 #8 Looking Ahead (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($1.70)

Ascot R5 #1 Testamezzo (win) LOSE (2nd)
Hawkesbury R8 #10 Negociant (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.70)

Leans

Caulfield R2 #2 Girl In Flight (win) 1st ($2.40)
Caulfield R4 #4 The New Boy (win) LOSE (3rd)
Caulfield R5 #2 Lady of Harrods (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Caulfield R8 #13 Murcielaga (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Rosehill R3 #2 Kristy Lee (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($1.50)
Rosehill R4 #1 Maluckyday (E/W) LOSE (4th)
Rosehill R6 #2 Alma’s Fury (E/W) 3rd ($4.50)
Rosehill R6 #11 Ninth Legion (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Rosehill R8 #10 Sir Berus (E/W) 3rd ($3.20)

Doomben R3 #2 Sporting Page (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Morphettville R2 #1 Rebel Truce (win) 1st ($2.50)

Morphettville R3 #7 Pressure Down (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Morphettville R5 #9 Misty Eyes (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($1.50)

Ascot R7 #7 Magnifisio (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.40)

Ascot R8 #12 Bedamijo (E/W) 2nd ($5.50)

Hawkesbury R2 #3 Sweet Talkin Woman (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($1.90)
Hawkesbury R7 #4 Patinage (win) 1st ($2.50)

Cranbourne R2 #7 Kirani (E/W) SCRATCHED

Gold Coast R5 #2 One Grey (win) LOSE (4th)

NBA for November 30

Los Angeles Lakers (8-8, 2-5 away) @ Detroit Pistons (6-9, 4-4 home), The Palace of Auburn Hills, Detroit, MI, Saturday, November 30, 11.40am

There’s nothing like a 20-point loss to a demoralised Chicago line-up to motivate an NBA side, and that’s the spot the Detroit Pistons find themselves as they host the Los Angeles Lakers here. Pau Gasol and the Lakers started their turnaround at the expense of the Pistons earlier this month. They'll now attempt to cap their three-game road swing on a winning note Friday night by completing a sweep of their inter-conference series. With Kobe Bryant sidelined, the Lakers spluttered early in the season, averaging 98.1 points while shooting 42.0 per cent. LA (8-8), though, has scored 105.2 points per game in winning four of five, shooting 47.8 per cent in that span. Gasol has typified that improved efficiency, averaging 18.8 points and making 52.5 per cent of his shots while also averaging 7.0 rebounds and 3.8 assists. The veteran Spaniard provided the inside presence in the Lakers’ 99-94 win at Brooklyn on Wednesday night, scoring 21 points on 9-of-17 shooting. Nick Young delivered a career-high 26 points and teamed with Jordan Farmer to hit nine of Los Angeles' 13 shots from three-point range.

Gasol, who has averaged 17.8 points in 22 career games versus the Pistons, has recorded double-doubles in six straight at Detroit. The Pistons (6-9) know all about offensive inconsistency, failing to get a season-high third straight win Wednesday after they were stifled 99-79 by Chicago. Rodney Stuckey (pictured) scored 25 off the bench, but Detroit had only 26 second-half points and went scoreless over 10 possessions in a game-deciding 7:08 stretch of the fourth quarter. Yet coach Maurice Cheeks opted to focus on his team’s defence at practice on Thursday, and with good reason. The Pistons are last in the league in defending inside the arc (allowing opponents to shoot 51.8 per cent) and can be exploited by a savvy veteran like Gasol. Stuckey has embraced his role as supersub, averaging a team-best 16.6 points, but has stepped up his play of late. He’s scored 20.8 per contest while shooting 56.0 per cent from the field and 84.8 per cent from the foul line over the last six games. The Lakers are going for their second straight season sweep of the Pistons after a 114-99 victory two weeks ago.

Confirmed bets

Miami Heat -6 @ Toronto Raptors (one unit @ $2.00) WIN (90-83)

Los Angeles Lakers @ Detroit Pistons -202 (one unit @ $1.95) LOSE (106-102)

Washington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers -10 (one unit @ $1.94) WIN (73-93)

Los Angeles Clippers @ Sacramento Kings +4 (one unit @ $1.95) LOSE (104-98)

New York Knicks @ Denver Nuggets -202 (one unit @ $1.93) WIN (95-97)

Milwaukee Bucks @ Charlotte Bobcats +182.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (76-92)

Leans

San Antonio Spurs @ Orlando Magic +9.5 $1.95 LOSE (109-91)

Dallas Mavericks @ Atlanta Hawks +1 $2.00 WIN (87-88)

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics NO LEAN

Los Angeles Lakers @ Detroit Pistons -5.5 $1.95 LOSE (106-102)

Brooklyn Nets @ Houston Rockets NO LEAN

Golden State Warriors @ Oklahoma City Thunder +203.5 $1.97 WIN (112-113)

New Orleans Pelicans -4.5 $1.91 @ Philadelphia 76ers WIN (121-95)

Phoenix Suns @ Utah Jazz +2 $1.94 LOSE (112-101)

Los Angeles Clippers @ Sacramento Kings -205 $1.95 WIN (104-98)

NHL for November 30

Calgary Flames (8-12-4, 20pts) @ Anaheim Ducks (17-7-3, 37pts), Honda Center (pictured), Anaheim, CA, Saturday, November 30, 8.40am

The Anaheim Ducks are the only NHL team yet to lose at home in regulation and will be aiming for an 18th consecutive home victory over the Calgary Flames here. Anaheim (17-7-3) led 2-1 after two periods on Tuesday at Dallas but gave up three goals in a 53-second span early in the third en route to a 6-3 loss. It was the most goals the Ducks have allowed since a season-opening 6-1 defeat at Colorado. Returning home to face Calgary (8-12-4) should be just the tonic for the Ducks. Besides the Flames having the Western Conference's second-worst record, Anaheim is 9-0-1 at the Honda Center, led by Ryan Getzlaf’s nine goals and seven assists. The Ducks are averaging 3.90 goals there even after a 1-0 win over Tampa Bay last Friday in their most recent home game. That nearly perfect record in Anaheim includes a 3-2 victory over Calgary on October 16, their 17th straight home win over the Flames since a 5-1 loss January 19, 2004. Ducks coach Bruce Boudreau, however, will make sure his team remembers nine of the last 10 meetings in Anaheim were decided by one goal – two in overtime and three in a shootout.

Getzlaf has registered a point in 12 straight home games against the Flames. He enters this match-up on a seven-game point streak. The Ducks have killed all 13 of their opponents’ power plays over the past three contests and 31 of 35 in Anaheim this season. Calgary went 0 for 4 there last month and is converting 12.7 per cent (10 for 79) while averaging 2.0 goals during the 17-game road slide to the Ducks. The Flames appeared to be in good shape to post a second straight win on Wednesday, holding a 2-0 third-period lead versus Chicago. However, the Blackhawks capped a three-goal rally with 18 seconds left to hand the Flames a 3-2 home loss. Calgary’s Lee Stempniak has been held without a point in three straight games but has four goals and four assists in his last eight against the Ducks. The Flames, already missing captain Mark Giordano (ankle), Curtis Glenncross (knee) and Dennis Wideman (hand), will also be missing rookie Sean Monahan due to a fracture in his foot. The 19yo Monahan is second among NHL rookies with 15 points, including nine goals.

Confirmed bets

Calgary Flames @ Anaheim Ducks WIN NT (two units @ $1.77) WIN (2-5)

Detroit Red Wings @ New York Islanders +5.5 (one unit @ $2.10) LOSE (5-0)

Colorado Avalanche @ Minnesota Wild -5 (one unit @ $1.96) WIN (3-1)

Montreal Canadiens WIN @ Washington Capitals (one unit @ $1.88) LOSE (2-3)

New York Rangers @ Boston Bruins WIN (one unit @ $1.73) WIN (2-3)

Leans

Winnipeg Jets @ Philadelphia Flyers -5 $2.40 WIN (1-2)

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Tampa Bay Lightning WIN $2.25 LOSE (3-0)

Detroit Red Wings WIN $1.96 @ New York Islanders WIN (5-0)

Calgary Flames @ Anaheim Ducks +5.5 $1.91 WIN (2-5)

St Louis Blues @ San Jose Sharks +5.5 $2.05 WIN (3-6)

Colorado Avalanche WIN $2.15 @ Minnesota Wild WIN (3-1)

New Jersey Devils WIN $2.02 @ Carolina Hurricanes WIN (5-2)

Edmonton Oilers WIN $2.15 @ Columbus Blue Jackets LOSE (2-4)

Toronto Maple Leafs WIN $1.80 @ Buffalo Sabres LOSE (2-3)

Chicago Blackhawks WIN $1.77 @ Dallas Stars +5.5 $1.91 LOSE (2-1)

College Football (week 14) for November 30

Pac-12: Oregon State Beavers (6-5, 4-4 Pac-12) @ Oregon Ducks (9-2, 6-2 Pac-12), Autzen Stadium, Eugene OR, Saturday, November 30, 11am

A month ago, Oregon was on a path to the BCS title game, but now the Ducks are simply on a path to redemption. Following a crushing defeat against Stanford on November 7 and last week's stunning blowout at Arizona, Oregon returns home looking to take out some anger against rival Oregon State in the Civil War game. The Ducks appear to be catching the Beavers at the right time as Oregon State has dropped four straight games, including a 69-27 pounding against Washington last week. The Ducks were ranked No. 2 in the BCS prior to their loss to the Cardinal and following last week’s defeat, Oregon will sit back and watch as Stanford and Arizona State play for the conference title next weekend. Ducks QB Marcus Mariota (3127 passing yards, 529 rushing yards, 36 total touchdowns) suffered a head injury last week but passed the concussion protocol and expects to play against the Beavers. Still, that could mean a heavier workload for De’Anthony Thomas, who racked up 227 all-purpose yards on 27 touches against Arizona.

The Beavers’ rushing defense could be the key this weekend as they allowed 530 yards on the ground against the Huskies. The Ducks, while led by the Heisman Trophy candidate Mariota, also possess a strong rushing attack that ranks 10th in the country at 277.9 yards per contest. Brandin Cooks is one of the offensive headliners for Oregon State, already possessing the school's single-season record with 110 receptions, just eight shy of the Pac-12 record set last season by Marqise Lee of USC. Of course, behind any record-setting receiver there is a big-time quarterback, and Sean Mannion has been terrific in 2013, completing 66 per cent of his passes for 4089 yards with 34 touchdowns. However, the Oregon State defence has allowed 37.5 points on average during its four-game slide and gave up 692 total yards to the Huskies last weekend. Oregon State has six wins, but the Beavers are not guaranteed a bowl game, as the Pac-12 has seven bowl agreements but nine teams already bowl eligible.

Confirmed bets

Oregon State +22.5 @ Oregon (two units @ $1.91) WIN (35-36)

Fresno State -7 @ San Jose State (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (56-62)

East Carolina @ Marshall +66 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (28-59)

SMU @ Houston -9 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (0-34)

Massachusetts @ Ohio -18.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (23-51)

Toledo -7.5 @ Akron (one unit @ $1.87) LOSE (29-31)

Arkansas +24.5 @ LSU (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (27-31)

Iowa @ Nebraska -2 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (38-17)
Washington State @ Washington -16.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (17-27)

Leans

East Carolina @ Marshall -3 $1.91 WIN (28-59)

SMU @ Houston +64 $1.91 LOSE (0-34)

Miami (Ohio) @ Ball State -34 $1.91 WIN (14-55)

Bowling Green -3 $1.95 @ Buffalo WIN (24-7)

Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan -18.5 $1.91 WIN (10-42)

Texas State +7 $1.87 @ Troy LOSE (28-42)

Florida Intl +28.5 $1.91 @ Florida Atlantic WIN (6-21)

Miami (Florida) @ Pittsburgh +56 $1.91 WIN (41-31)

Fresno State @ San Jose State +71 $1.91 WIN (56-62)

Oregon State @ Oregon +68.5 $1.91 WIN (35-36)

South Florida @ Central Florida -27 $1.91 LOSE (20-23)

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