Daily tips for November 12

Note: Bets are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).


Racing for November 12

Horse racing: Kilmore (Vic), Quirindi (NSW), Townsville (Qld), Queanbeyan (NSW – abandoned). Harness racing: Menangle (NSW), Albion Park (Qld), Terang (Vic), Northam (WA). Greyhound racing: Gawler (SA), Devonport (Tas), Goulburn (NSW), Horsham (Vic), Ipswich (Qld), Lismore (NSW), Warragul (Vic), Gosford (NSW), Townsville (Qld), Mandurah (WA).

While Victoria shivers through its coldest November in 30 years (global warming, yeh right), the bushfire threat north of the border has been eased with heavy rain over the past 48 hours, resulting in the abandonment of today’s meeting Queanbeyan. The Quirindi meeting will go ahead on a slow (7) and I’m hoping for a winning start to the day aboard #4 Snip Of Magic in the Benchmark 55 Handicap over 1000 metres. Resuming with a last start third at Muswellbrook over 900m, the 4yo gelding steps up to the 1000m today where he has had the 10 starts for one win (on a slow track) and four placings. Top country jockey Greg Ryan stays on board after recommending to trainer Tim McIntosh to start the horse here.

Confirmed bets

Quirindi R1 #4 Snip Of Magic (win)

Kilmore R7 #2 Present Glow (win)

Leans

Quirindi R4 #2 Hammoon Bay (E/W 1x3)

Quirindi R6 #15 Feature (E/W 1x2)

Quirindi R7 #2 Mount Annan (E/W 1x2)

Kilmore R3 #7 Tunisia Traveller (E/W 1x3)

Kilmore R4 #1 Eight Jewels (E/W 1x4)

Kilmore R5 #4 He’snotthemessiah (win)

Townsville R3 #4 Sheridan (win)

Townsville R5 #1 Steel Dragon (win)

NFL (week 10) for November 12

Miami Dolphins (4-4, 2-2 away) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-8, 0-4 home), Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL, Tuesday, November, 12.40pm

One winless NFL franchise based in Florida broke its duck yesterday after Jacksonville defeated Tennessee. Will the Buccaneers open their account for 2013-14 against the crisis-riddled Miami Dolphins, who are without victory in Tampa since 1988? Tampa Bay have been the NFL's poster boys for dysfunction for much of the season, but the Miami Dolphins have seized that mantle in the midst of an explosive soap opera. The Dolphins will try to overcome a highly publicised rift by offensive linemen Richie Incognito (pictured) and Jonathan Martin when they visit the Buccaneers for Monday Night Football. The Dolphins will have 10 days between games since a stunning 22-20 overtime victory over Cincinnati that snapped a four-game losing streak, but new developments continue to emerge in the ongoing saga in which Martin left the team after accusing Incognito of repeated bullying. Tampa Bay is dealing with another gut-wrenching loss, blowing a 21-point lead in Seattle last week. Coach Greg Schiano has been on the hot seat amid reports that several players are unhappy with his demanding style although the money has come for the Bucs.

The most pressing on-field question for Miami is how to overcome the loss of 40 per cent of an offensive line that has already allowed Tannehill to be a sacked a league-high 35 times. The Dolphins may have salvaged their season by rallying to beat Cincinnati after blowing a 14-point second-half lead for the second consecutive week. Running back Lamar Miller is coming off his first 100-yard day for Miami, which is averaging 156.5 yards rushing in the past two games. Tampa Bay's 27-24 overtime loss in Seattle was its fourth defeat by three or fewer points this season. Running back Doug Martin, who rushed for 1454 yards as a rookie last season, has been sidelined with a torn labrum since October 20 and could be headed to injured reserve. Rookie Mike James has been a capable replacement, running for a career-high 158 yards in last week's loss while rookie quarterback Mike Glennon has thrown five TD passes and no interceptions in his past three games. However, I suspect we’ll see a statement game from the Fins here.

Confirmed bet

Miami Dolphins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers +40.5 (one unit @ $1.91)

Leans

Miami Dolphins WIN $1.76 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Miami Dolphins (by 7-12) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers $5.50

NBA for November 12

Memphis Grizzlies (3-3, 0-2 away) @ Indiana Pacers (7-0, 4-0 home), Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN, Tuesday, November 12, 11.10am

The Indiana Pacers and Memphis Grizzlies reached their respective conference finals last season, but only one team looks on track for continued success so far this season. The Pacers look to extend the best start in franchise history here when they put their unbeaten mark on the line at home against Memphis. The Pacers are 7-0 for the first time ever after a 96-91 win at Brooklyn on Saturday, maintaining their status as the lone unbeaten in the NBA. Although it is early, Indiana has already opened a four-game advantage on its Central Division opponents, each of who have losing records. The Pacers finished one win shy of the NBA finals last season and not having homecourt advantage for Game 7 against Miami played a significant role. Memphis finished a 2-1 homestand with a 108-90 win over Golden State on Saturday. It matched the Grizzlies’ largest margin of victory since March 3 and pushed the club back to .500 for the third time as it exchanges losses and wins on the young season. Zach Randolph, who left the previous game early for the birth of his son, had 23 points and 11 rebounds.

Point guard Mike Conley (pictured) has been a big part of the Memphis scoring attack over the years – averaging double digits in each of the past five seasons – but he has elevated his game on that end of the floor this season. Conley poured in 20 points on a 9-of-11 effort from the floor in just 25 minutes against Golden State, and is averaging a team-high 20.2 points on 52.3 per cent shooting. His performance has helped the Grizzlies shoot 47.4 per cent as a team, the fourth-highest mark in the league entering Sunday’s action. Paul George scored 24 points and three others had at least 15 in Saturday’s win at Brooklyn, which saw Indiana put forth another strong defensive effort. All seven of the Pacers’ victims have been held to 91 points or fewer; Indiana allows the fewest points (85.3) in the NBA by a wide margin. In 2012-13, the Pacers ranked second in that category to the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies are 8-2 ATS in the past 10 meetings against Indiana but the Pacers are 7-0 ATS in their past seven against the NBA Southwest.

Confirmed bets

Memphis Grizzlies @ Indiana Pacers -183.5 (one unit @ $1.91)

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Clippers +210.5 (one unit @ $1.91)

Detroit Pistons +4.5 @ Portland Trail Blazers (one unit @ $1.91)

Suggested bets

San Antonio Spurs -6.5 $1.91 @ Philadelphia 76ers

Denver Nuggets @ Utah Jazz +3 $1.91

Leans

Atlanta Hawks -2.5 $1.91 @ Charlotte Bobcats

Memphis Grizzlies +6.5 $1.91 @ Indiana Pacers

Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtics (by 1-10) $2.75 -191 $1.91

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Chicago Bulls -186.5 $1.91

Toronto Raptors @ Houston Rockets +203

Detroit Pistons @ Portland Trail Blazers +197 $1.91

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Clippers -6.5 $1.91

Football (FA Cup round 1) for November 12

Shortwood United v Port Vale, The Meadowbank Ground, Nailsworth, England, Tuesday, November 12, 6.45am

Having spent several years covering the FA Cup in 1990s, I’ve always marveled at the UK media’s ability to shine an opening round fixture into the national spotlight mainly based on the fact that it’s the only game scheduled for the day! However, at least there’s a story to be told here as Shortwood United is the lowest ranked team left in the FA Cup. The Calor League Southern Division One South & West club, based in Nailsworth, Gloucestershire, is facing a side 125 places above them in the football pyramid. There are two teams plying their trade in Nailsworth (population 5000), the largest of which is Forest Green Rovers of the Conference Premier, who play at the nearby New Lawn stadium. They sit a lowly fifth-bottom on the table although they have a number of games in hand on the teams around them due to their Cup run. However, all 1300 tickets have been sold and club chairman Pete Webb said: “We’ve never seen anything like it in our lives. It’s fantastic.”

But it’s a tough ask for the Woods to progress from here (after knocking out Aldershot Town in the fourth qualifying round – the first time they’ve reached this stage of the competition) as Port Vale boss Micky Adams is expected to freshen things up after his side’s 5-2 loss to Swindon in their last outing. Left-back Daniel Jones is in contention to return to the starting XI, while striker Lee Hughes (a West Brom favourite who spent three years in prison after being convicted of causing death by dangerous driving, pictured) who came off the bench to score against Swindon, may start. Port Vale are in reasonable form, winning two of their last three matches including away to Crawley 3-0 a few weeks ago. With this in mind, Port Vale should be comfortable here and Shortwood concede loads of goals so Port Vale to win with a -2 handicap looks the way to go. Conference Premier side Salisbury awaits the winners of this tie in the second round of the competition.

Confirmed bet

Shortwood United v Port Vale -1 (two units @ $1.62) WIN (0-4)

Lean

Shortwood United v Port Vale (0-2) $7.50 LOSE (0-4)

Rugby League (World Cup) for November 12

Group B: France v Samoa, Stade Gilbert Brutus, Perpignan, France, Tuesday, November 12, 6am

France and Samoa have already qualified for the Rugby League World Cup quarter-finals, but this is a crucial game for both teams. New Zealand have wrapped up top spot in Group B after beating the winless Papua New Guinea, and this match will determine the runner-up for the group. The winner here will take on Fiji in the sudden-death quarter-finals, but the loser will have to face the might of England on their home turf. Samoa have been the more convincing of the two sides so far in this World Cup, scoring 24 points against New Zealand in their first hit-out before thumping PNG 38-4. Samoa may been known for the raw power of their forward pack but they also boast a couple of the most dangerous backline stars at the World Cup in the form of Anthony Milford (pictured) at fullback and Joey Leilua in the centres. Milford made a whopping 14 tackle breaks, provided five offloads and kicked five goals against PNG. Both players have made 17 tackle busts from two games.

The French meanwhile were lucky to escape with a 9-8 win over Papua New Guinea – with the Kumuls missing what would have been a match-winning penalty goal in the dying moments – and were then flogged 48-0 by the Kiwis. That match was played on French territory and they’ll play at home here, but it was hardly an advantage against NZ. Five-eighth Thomas Bosc is the undoubted star for French. He’s scored 89 per cent of his team’s points. Granted, his team has only scored nine points in two games, but Bosc’s playmaking skills and willingness to take on the line from five-eighth still poses a genuine threat for Samoa. Bosc’s Catalans Dragons teammate Morgan Escare is another player to watch, having scored 14 tries from the wing in the Super League this year. Escare lines up at fullback for the national side, from where he made three tackle breaks against the Kumuls and two offloads against the Kiwis. But France have hardly been convincing in this tournament and Samoa should be the better team here.

Confirmed bet

France v Samoa -13.5 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (6-22)

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