Daily tips for November 9

Note: Bets are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).


A-League (round 5) for November 9

Sydney FC (1-0-3) v Melbourne Victory (2-2-0), Allianz Stadium, Sydney, Saturday, November 9, 7.45pm

It’s the second Sydney v Melbourne showdown of the round after the Wanderers defeated the Heart in Melbourne last night. However, a Sydney result if far from assured at Allianz Stadium tonight as the Sky Blues host Melbourne Victory. As coach Frank Farina (pictured) said before the season, Sydney fans don't demand success; they expect it. With just one win from four games, there's no doubt the pressure is building. Three straight losses have turned up the heat on everyone at Sydney FC and talk of turfing the coach so early in the campaign isn’t unusual. The question is will the players dig in and fight for their boss or is the speculation and scrutiny weighing them down? A clash with the Victory will certainly answer that. There is good news for Sydney with skipper Alessandro Del Piero likely to come into the side after returning from his calf injury in the loss to Perth last weekend. Right-back Pedj Bojic (calf) should also be available after missing the last two games.

The Victory started life without coach Ange Postecoglou last week in good fashion, holding on for a 3-2 win over Wellington on Monday night to maintain their unbeaten start to the season. New boss Kevin Muscat will be relieved to have started his tenure with a win and it seems the Victory's all-action attacking style will continue under the former Socceroos hard-man. Muscat will have been happy to see Archie Thompson break his goal-scoring drought with his first of the season against the Phoenix, which the Victory boss will hope is the start of things to come for the rest of the season. Victory enjoys the better of it in the history of the 'Big Blue' and came away with a win and draw from two clashes at Allianz Stadium last season. Postecoglou achieved some great things with the Victory in his short stint at the helm but his greatest gift before moving on to the national team could well be the signing of fringe Socceroos striker James Troisi, who is improving with every performance.

Confirmed bets

Sydney FC v Melbourne Victory +2.5 (two units @ $1.66)

Wellington Phoenix WIN v Perth Glory (one unit @ $2.15) LOSE (1-1)

Leans

Sydney FC DNB v Melbourne Victory $2.05

Wellington Phoenix (by 1) v Perth Glory $4.00 LOSE (1-1)

Adelaide United WIN v Newcastle Jets $1.91 LOSE (1-2)

Racing for November 9

Today’s highlights

Flemington R1 Group 3 $150,000 The Hong Kong Jockey Club Maribyrnong Plate (1000m, set weights, 2yos)

Flemington R5 Group 2 $300,000 Momentum Energy Stakes (2000m, SWP, 4yo+ mares)

Flemington R6 Group 1 $1 million VRC Sprint Classic (1200m, WFA)

Flemington R7 Group 1 $1 million Emirates Stakes (1600m, quality)

Flemington R8 Group 3 $300,000 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2600m, quality)

Horse racing: Flemington (Vic), Randwick (NSW), Eagle Farm (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Ascot (WA), Gold Coast (Qld), Newcastle (NSW), Geelong (Vic), Goulburn (NSW), Inverell (NSW), Sunshine Coast (Qld – night). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Globe Derby (SA), Bunbury (WA), Melton (Vic), Newcastle (NSW). Greyhound racing: Wentworth Park (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), The Gardens (NSW), Bendigo (Vic), Cannington (WA), Richmond (NSW), The Meadows (Vic).

After a fine and sunny week to go with firm tracks, Melbourne’s unpredictable weather will have a major impact on Emirates Stakes Day. Despite more than 24 hours of cold and wet weather the track is rated a dead (4) today, while runners will face a strong headwind on the front straight. I have no faith in the track rating and suggest that it will behave on the slower side of dead. In today’s straight races, I also suspect that the outside of the track will provide the best going as it is protected from the worst of the south-westerly wind by the grandstands. Likewise, in the longer races, I expect runners to head for home as far away from the rail as possible even though it’s three metres out. The feature looks a bloody tough race to navigate. The Emirates Stakes has always been a minefield for favourites and I have nothing rated worse than 40-1.

#2 Boban has been a cash cow for us in recent weeks but he’d definitely have preferred a firm track and at $3.50 is well under the odds. #4 Toydini looks to get every favour for Guy Walter and Blake Shinn and, despite the draw in 12, will be storming home. At $6.50, he’s also under the odds, but he’s my tip (no bet for me). The highlight of the day for me is the $1 million VRC Sprint Classic, featuring Hong Kong superstar #1 Lucky Nine and Queensland sprint champ #2 Buffering, in a re-match of their Manikato Stakes showdown. Buffering’s record at Flemington is staggering, and could well have returned three Group victories without the presence of Black Caviar or Hay List. Lucky Nine is unproven on soft-ish group, but it won’t bother #3 Epaulette, who looks well in this up to his ears at the right price.

Confirmed bets

Flemington R5 #2 Zurella (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Flemington R6 #2 Buffering (E/W) 1st ($8.60/$2.70)

Flemington R7 #4 Toydini (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Flemington R8 #2 Precedence (E/W) 1st ($6.30/$2.20)

Randwick R5 #7 Field Marshall (E/W 1x4) 1st ($3.40/$1.50)

Randwick R6 #2 Pendolin (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Randwick R8 #8 Reflectance (E/W) 2nd ($4.20)

Eagle Farm R5 #1 Better Than Ready (win) 1st ($3.00)

Morphettville R3 #6 My Little Friend (E/W 1x2) LOSE (U/P)

Leans

Flemington R1 #9 Silent Whisper (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($1.70)
Flemington R2 #3 Sysmo (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($1.50)

Flemington R3 #4 Hioctdane (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Flemington R4 #6 Apollo’s Choice (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Flemington R5 #4 Lake Sententia (win) LOSE (U/P)
Flemington R7 #2 Boban (win) 1st ($3.70)
Flemington R9 Limes (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Randwick R2 #6 Earthquake (E/W 1x2) 1st ($5.80/$2.00)

Randwick R4 #3 Flak Jacket (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Randwick R7 #3 Reigning (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Randwick R8 #11 Terravista (win) 1st ($2.50)

Eagle Farm R3 Boxed Trifecta 2,4,7,9 WIN ($113.90)

Eagle Farm R7 #1 Venture On (E/W 1x3)

Morphettville R4 #7 Miss Intensus (E/W) LOSE (4th))

Morphettville R6 #4 Longshoreman (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.50)

Morphettville R7 #7 Jayconi (win) 1st ($2.70)

Ascot R7 #1 Petrol Power (E/W 1x2)

Ascot R8 #12 Rive Gauche (E/W)

NBA for November 9

Utah Jazz (0-5, 0-3 away) @ Chicago Bulls (1-3, 1-0 home), United Center, Chicago, IL, Saturday, November 9, 12.10pm

Neither side has impressed over the opening fortnight of the NBA season, but I’m expecting a breakout performance from the Bulls here against the woeful Jazz. Looking to avoid a third straight defeat, the Bulls are aiming for a sixth consecutive victory over the Jazz. Admittedly, even with Derrick Rose (pictured) back from missing last season with a knee injury, Chicago (1-3) has yet to find its rhythm. The Bulls' only victory came by one point over New York on a late shot by Rose. They blew a 15-point half-time lead in a 107-104 loss at Philadelphia on Saturday, then were on the wrong end of a 12-2 fourth-quarter run during Wednesday's 97-80 loss at Indiana. Chicago is averaging 90.3 points on 41.2 per cent shooting and giving up 98.0 per game while mired in its worst start since going 1-6 in 2007-08. The Bulls didn’t allow more than 92.9 points per contest in each of the previous three seasons under coach Tom Thibodeau. Rose is averaging 15.0 points and shooting 31.3 per cent – well below his career marks of 20.9 and 46.2.

The Jazz (0-5), who are off to their worst start since losing the first 11 of their inaugural 1974-75 season in New Orleans. Chicago won both meetings with Utah by a combined five points last season, but it will have Rose this time. He’s averaged 24.6 points on 50.4 percent shooting and 7.3 assists in seven games against the Jazz. Utah shot a season-high 46.3 per cent but failed to score 90 points for the third time in four games during Wednesday’s 97-87 loss at Boston. Gordon Hayward had 28 points, nine rebounds and five assists as the Jazz trailed by as many as 25 before closing within six in the fourth quarter. Waiting for ninth overall pick Trey Burke (finger) and veteran forward Marvin Williams (Achilles) to make their season debuts, the Jazz were outscored 27-8 in the second quarter and committed at least 20 turnovers for the fourth time. Hayward has scored 50 points on 20-of-36 shooting in the past two games, but he tallied 15 and went 5 of 12 from the field while playing significant minutes in his last two against the Bulls.

Confirmed bets

Utah Jazz @ Chicago Bulls -12 (1.5 units @ $1.91) WIN (73-97)

Toronto Raptors @ Indiana Pacers -8.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (84-91)

Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic -5.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (91-89)

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Philadelphia 76ers -205.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (79-94)

Leans

New York Knicks @ Charlotte Bobcats NO LEAN (101-91)
Toronto Raptors @ Indiana Pacers 1H -93.5 $1.91 WIN (46-44)
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Philadelphia 76ers +3.5 $1.91 WIN (79-94)
Brooklyn Nets WIN $1.83 @ Washington Wizards LOSE (108-112)
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Detroit Pistons +3 $1.91 LOSE (119-111)
Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves -4 $1.91 WIN (108-116)
Los Angeles Lakers @ New Orleans Pelicans NO LEAN (85-96)
Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns -2 $1.91 WIN (103-114)Sacramento Kings +8 @ Portland Trail Blazers $1.91 LOSE (91-104)

College Football (week 11) for November 9

AAC: Louisville Cardinals (7-1, 3-1 AAC) @ Connecticut Huskies (0-7, 0-3 AAC), Rentschler Field, East Hartford, CT, Saturday, November 9, 12.30pm

A year is a long time in College Football. A triple-overtime loss to Connecticut served as the push that Louisville needed to close out the 2012 season on a high note. A conference change and less than a year later, a similar result seems highly unlikely when the 16th-ranked Cardinals hit the road to meet the winless Huskies. In their final Big East clash, Connecticut held Louisville scoreless for three quarters and intercepted Cardinals QB Teddy Bridgewater in the third overtime on the way to a 23-20 victory. That was the last time the Huskies won a game while Louisville clinched a BCS berth the following week against Rutgers and defeated Florida in the Sugar Bowl – setting the stage for a strong start to their first season in the American Athletic Conference. While the Cardinals had a week off to savour their 34-3 trouncing of South Florida, Connecticut is looking for answers following a 62-17 loss to Central Florida on October 26. The Huskies – off to their worst start since 1977 – have lost three of their last four games by at least 25 points.

In his first start of the season, Louisville’s Dominique Brown (pictured) set career highs in rushing yards (125), catches (six) and receiving yards (61). Bridgewater turned in another efficient performance versus South Florida, going 25-of-29 to increase his completion percentage to an FBS-high 73.7 per cent. The Cardinals limited the Bulls to three points and 38 yards rushing – the fifth time they have held an opponent to seven points or fewer and less than 100 yards rushing in the same game. Louisville’s second-ranked scoring defense (10.6 points per game) also ranks second in the country against the run (80.5 yards) and third against the pass (164). One of the few highlights from the Huskies’ loss to Central Florida was Casey Cochran’s 49-yard touchdown pass to Brian Lemelle – the first career scores for both freshmen. Tim Boyle, who replaced Chandler Whitmer as the starting quarterback three games ago, has yet to throw or run for a touchdown. Connecticut ranks second-to-last in the country in rushing yardage (537), as well as yards per carry (2.38) and has run for 91 yards or fewer in all but one game.

Confirmed bets

Louisville Cardinals -27 @ Connecticut Huskies (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (31-10)
Air Force Falcons @ New Mexico -3 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (37-45)

Leans

Louisville Cardinals @ Connecticut Huskies -49 $1.91 WIN (31-10)
Air Force Falcons @ New Mexico Lobos +59.5 $1.91 WIN (37-45)

NHL for November 9

Nashville Predators (8-5-2, 18pts) @ Winnipeg Jets (6-9-2, 14pts), MTS Centre, Winnipeg, MB, Canada, Saturday, November 9, 12.10pm

There might be only four games on the slate for today but it’s a tricky card with a massive upset alert attached. For my best of the day, I’ve settled on the rock-solid record of the Nashville Panthers against the Winnipeg Jets. The visiting Predators look for a fifth consecutive victory (and third this season) over the Jets. The teams didn't see much of each other when the Jets played in the Eastern Conference while based in Atlanta and then the past two seasons in Winnipeg. That’s something Nashville (8-5-2) is probably happy to see change, as it’s gone 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings and 8-1-1 in the past 10. In the teams’ first match-up since a 3-1 Nashville victory on March 24, 2012, the Predators won 3-1 in their first-ever game at Winnipeg on October 20. Four days later, Craig Smith (pictured) scored in overtime to give Nashville a 3-2 home victory over the Jets (6-9-2). Though the Predators have yielded 20 goals in five games since losing goaltender Pekka Rinne for at least four weeks with a hip injury, they’ve scored 18 while going 3-1-1 during that stretch.

Carter Hutton made 27 saves against the Avalanche to improve to 4-1-1 despite a 2.94 goals-against average. He stopped 72 of 75 shots in the two meetings with the Jets last month and recorded his first career win on October 20 at Winnipeg. Nashville has gone 5 for 7 on the power play while starting 2-0-1 on a season-high seven-game road stretch. It went 6 for 38 with the man advantage through the first 12 games. Colin Wilson snapped an 11-game goal drought when he scored on the power play Wednesday. The Jets lost for the fourth time in five games on Wednesday, 4-1 at Chicago. Devin Setoguchi spoiled Corey Crawford’s shutout bid late in the third period for the Jets, who have scored two or fewer goals in six of the last seven games. Winnipeg is 1 for 39 on the power play in the last 12 games, and 6 for 63 (9.5 per cent) on the season. Evander Kane has one of Winnipeg’s three goals against the Predators this season, but he could miss a third straight game with an unspecified injury.

Confirmed bets

Nashville Predators WIN @ Winnipeg Jets (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (0-5)
Calgary Flames @ Colorado Avalanche +5.5 (one unit @ $1.87) WIN (2-4)
New Jersey Devils @ Toronto Maple Leafs TT +2.5 (one unit @ $1.71) LOSE (1-2)

Leans

New Jersey Devils @ Toronto Maple Leafs +5 $1.84 LOSE (1-2)
Nashville Predators @ Winnipeg Jets -5.5 $1.75 WIN (0-5)
Calgary Flames +1.5 $1.70 @ Colorado Avalanche LOSE (2-4)
Buffalo Sabres @ Anaheim Ducks -1.5 $2.10 WIN -5.5 $1.72 LOSE (2-6)

Rugby League (World Cup) for November 9

Group B: New Zealand v Papua New Guinea, Headingley Carnegie Stadium, Leeds, England, Saturday, November 9, 7am

This could be viewed as a dead rubber but there’s plenty of pride at stake here as New Zealand takes on the Kumuls of Papua New Guinea to end the group stage in the 2013 Rugby League World Cup. For the league-mad Kumuls this final group game will be their last appearance at this tournament, and as such a final chance to extract some positives from what has been a disappointing fortnight.  For the Kiwis, it’s a chance to continue to build momentum following a crushing win over France, to put the other elite sides on notice, and for the players scrapping for a spot in the best 17. Coach Stephen Kearney has made six changes for this one, with Josh Hoffman coming back in for his second game, replacing Kevin Locke at fullback. Sonny Bill Williams (pictured) also plays his second game, replacing Frank Pritchard in the second row. Elijah Taylor moves into the starting side at lock, with skipper Simon Mannering earning a rest. Jesse Bromwich joins the side at prop while Jared Waerea-Hargreaves also earns a rest.

The Kumuls have a tough challenge improving on their 38-4 defeat at the hands of Samoa – especially given the dominant nature of the Kiwis’ 48-0 win over France, the heaviest defeat of the tournament to date. Pride, passion and desperation will be the Kumuls’ biggest assets here but don’t discount NRL regulars Ray Thompson and David Mead, as well as local player Jessie-Joe Nandye. He’s been arguably the best of the Kumuls, with 163 metres from 21 runs and 35 tackles in the opener against France. He backed that up with 104 metres and 37 tackles, as well as his side’s only try, when promoted to the starting side in the loss against Samoa. The Kumuls will well and truly have their work cut out trying to bring down this monster pack and if they can’t contain them, the likes of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Josh Hoffman in the backs could run riot. With the gulf in class and experience here, and clear weather forecast, it could be a long night for the gallant Kumuls.

Confirmed bet

New Zealand -41.5 v Papua New Guinea (three units @ $1.60) WIN (56-10)

Lean

New Zealand v Papua New Guinea (no try) $2.25 LOSE

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