Daily tips for November 10

Note: Bets are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).

Racing for November 10

Horse racing: Ararat (Vic), Armidale (NSW), Warwick (Qld), Mt Gambier (SA), Pinjarra (WA), Benalla (Vic), Warren (NSW). Harness racing: St Arnaud (Vic), Maitland (NSW), Hobart (Tas). Greyhound racing: Healesville (Vic), Sandown Park (Vic), Sale (Vic), Strathalbyn (SA), Albion Park (Qld), Canberra (ACT).

The spotlight shifts from the city to the country today with cups scheduled in several regional centres including Ararat, Benalla (Euroa), Armidale (Guyra) and Warren. Sadly, today’s racing will be overshadowed by the loss of another jockey after the death of Desiree Gill as a result of injuries she received in a fall at the Sunshine Coast last night. Gill was taken to Nambour Hospital on Saturday night in a critical condition and passed away this morning. The 45-year-old (pictured, with thanks to the Gympie Times) was an experienced rider who had spent 30 years in the industry. After recovering from horrific injuries she received five years ago when a horse trained by husband Barry kicked her in the face, Gill had won the SE Queensland Country premiership for the past two years and rode four winners at Bundaberg on Melbourne Cup day. Gill's death comes just a few months after Darwin's leading rider Simone Montgomerie died following a fall at the annual Cup meeting in August. We were all saddened by the death of Melbourne Cup runner Verema on Tuesday, which received widespread mainstream media coverage. I hope that the mainstream media acknowledges the career and life of Desiree Gill with equal dedication. Rest In Peace.

Confirmed bets

Warwick R6 #1 Dragon Master (win)  1st ($1.90)

Warren R4 #3 Tread Well (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($1.90)
Ararat R6 #8 Murcielaga (win) LOSE (2nd)

Benalla R1 #6 Smart Guy (win) 1st ($1.90)

Leans

Ararat R2 #6 Pendles (win) 1st ($4.90)

Ararat R3 #1 Black Rushin’ (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Ararat R7 #1 Bianmick (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Warren R5 #1 Hidden Strategy (E/W 1x3) SCRATCHED

Warren R7 #3 Path To Freedom (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.60)

Armidale R2 #7 Lucky Sky (win) LOSE (3rd)

Armidale R4 #1 Tara Brave (E/W 1x2) 1st ($5.50/$2.00)

Benalla R5 #4 Tilla Bell Rings (win) LOSE (U/P)

NBA for November 10

Los Angeles Clippers (3-3, 1-3 away) @ Houston Rockets (4-2, 2-1 home), Toyota Center, Houston, TX, Sunday, November 10, 12.10pm

The ‘under’ is 14-4 in Houston’s past 18 home games but I’ll be playing against that trend here as there wasn’t a lot of defence played when Los Angeles and Houston played on Monday, and it figures to be another high-scoring affair when the Rockets host the Clippers here. Los Angeles posted a 137-118 victory in the first meeting, making 15 3-pointers and receiving 23 points and 17 assists from point guard Chris Paul. The Clippers matched a franchise record with 78 first-half points in that victory but have since lost back-to-back games to Orlando and Miami. Rockets star James Harden has been hobbled by a foot injury but still managed a monster performance of 35 points, nine rebounds, five assists and four steals in Friday’s 99-98 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers. Houston lost the contest when Steve Blake drained a late three-pointer for the Lakers. Paul is off to a great start with averages of 22.5 points and 12.5 assists and has recorded a double-double in each game.

Clippers forward Blake Griffin (pictured) was a stand out in Friday’s loss to Miami with 27 points and 14 rebounds. Paul typically takes over games in the fourth quarter but he acknowledged that he should have acquiesced more to Griffin in the loss to Miami. Griffin made 11-of-15 shots while Paul was only 3-of-11. Griffin is averaging 21.7 points and 11.3 rebounds and already has four 20-point, 10-rebound outings. The Clippers are 2-6 ATS in their past eight road games, and the over is 7-2 in the Clippers’ past nine overall. Los Angeles has won six of the past seven meetings. Harden’s ability to get to the free-throw line and Howard’s presence means Houston will get numerous attempts from the line all season. The Rockets were just 33-of-52 in the loss to the Lakers, marking the second time already that they have attempted more than 50 free throws. Houston hadn’t shot 50 free throws in a game since November 24, 2010, prior to this season. Howard was the biggest culprit by making just 5-of-16 against the Lakers.

Confirmed bets

Los Angeles Clippers @ Houston Rockets +213 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (107-94)

Portland Trail Blazers @ Sacramento Kings WIN (one unit @ $1.80) LOSE (96-85)

Leans

Utah Jazz +9 $1.91 @ Toronto Raptors LOSE (91-115)

Orlando Magic @ Atlanta Hawks -199.5 $1.91 WIN (94-104)

Indiana Pacers WIN $2.00 @ Brooklyn Nets WIN (96-91)

Philadelphia 76ers @ Cleveland Cavaliers -200.5 $1.91 LOSE (125-127)

Boston Celtics +13 @ Miami Heat $1.91 WIN (111-110)

Golden State Warriors +3 @ Memphis Grizzlies $1.91 LOSE (90-108)

Portland Trail Blazers @ Sacramento Kings +198.5 $1.91 LOSE (96-85)

NHL for November 10

Washington Capitals (9-7-0, 18pts) @ Phoenix Coyotes (11-4-2, 24pts), Jobing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ, Sunday, November 10, 12.10pm

For the match of the day, we head west to the fortress of Phoenix into which the rapidly improving Washington Capitals journey. The Caps are starting to pick up steam with Alex Ovechkin (pictured) back on the ice. Extending their winning streak to five, though, could prove difficult here in Phoenix, where the Coyotes have been nearly unbeatable. After missing two games with an upper-body injury, Ovechkin returned to post two goals and an assist in Tuesday’s 6-2 rout of the New York Islanders. The superstar forward went on to score his team-leading 13th goal on Thursday, helping Washington (9-7-0) pull out a 3-2 shootout victory over Minnesota. Left wing Marcus Johansson tied it with 3:08 left in regulation and Braden Holtby made 33 saves. Holtby, 6-1-0 with a 2.04 GAA and one shutout in his last seven starts, has never faced Phoenix. The Capitals have outscored opponents 17-6 in winning each of their four games this month. Washington plays three of its next four on the road, where it is 3-4-0, and visits Western Conference powerhouse Colorado tomorrow night.

This is the first match-up between the Capitals and Coyotes in almost two years. They last met on November 21, 2011, with Washington winning 4-3. Phoenix (11-4-2) has made things especially tough on opponents at home, going 7-0-1 while averaging 3.8 goals. The Coyotes will be trying to win seven straight on their own ice for the first time since February 4-28, 2012. Phoenix looks to get back on track following Wednesday’s 5-2 loss at Anaheim. Captain Shane Doan scored for the fifth time in seven games while goalie Mike Smith struggled for the Coyotes, who blew two one-goal leads as their five-game winning streak was snapped. Smith could be in for another long night against a Capitals team that has had his number. He has gone 0-6-0 while compiling a 5.03 goals-against average, his highest mark versus any team, and will be facing the Capitals for the first time since 2010 while with Tampa Bay. Coyotes center Mike Ribeiro, who had 49 points in 48 games last season with Washington, has just two assists in his last seven contests.

Confirmed bets

Washington Capitals @ Phoenix Coyotes +5.5 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (3-4)

Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 @ Boston Bruins (two units @ $1.55) LOSE (1-3)

Vancouver Canucks WIN @ Los Angeles Kings (one unit @ $2.00) LOSE (1-5)

Minnesota Wild WIN @ Carolina Hurricanes (one unit @ $1.77) WIN (3-2)

Leans

Florida Panthers @ Ottawa Senators TT +2.5 $1.85 WIN (2-3)

Edmonton Oilers @ Philadelphia Flyers WIN $1.70 WIN (2-4)

Tampa Bay Lightning WIN $2.10 @ Detroit Red Wings WIN (3-2)

New York Islanders @ Columbus Blue Jackets 1P -1.5 $1.96 LOSE (1-1)

Pittsburgh Penguins @ St Louis Blues -5.5 $1.74 WIN (1-2)

Chicago Blackhawks TT +2.5 $1.71 WIN WIN $1.74 @ Dallas Stars WIN (5-2)

Washington Capitals WIN $2.20 @ Phoenix Coyotes LOSE (3-4)


College Football (week 11) for November 10

13 LSU Tigers (7-2, 3-2 SEC) @ 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0, 5-0 SEC), Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL, Sunday, November 10, noon

The most-hyped game of the week in College Football might turn out to be a mis-match as top-ranked Alabama’s bid for its third consecutive national championship continues when they host rival Louisiana State, which has won five of the last six meetings in Bryant-Denny Stadium. The 12th-ranked Tigers have fallen out of the national title race, but Alabama-LSU games are invariably worth the high price of admission. The past six regular season meetings have each been decided by less than 10 points, with an average margin of victory of just 5.3. The Crimson Tide hope to begin November where they left off after allowing a total of 20 points while scoring 45 or more in all four games last month. LSU is 2-10-1 all-time against No. 1-ranked teams, but coach Les Miles and his players are eager to snap the Tigers’ two-game losing skid against Alabama. LSU are 6-1-1 ATS in their past eight meetings in Alabama and 4-0 ATS in their past four games following a bye week. I’m expecting Alabama to defy these stats and win well here.

LSU running back Jeremy Hill faces a tough test against the stout Alabama run defence, but he collected 107 yards and a score in last year’s 21-17 loss to the Crimson Tide (he’s averaging 7.2 yards per carry this season with 12 touchdowns). Wide receivers Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry have eight TD receptions apiece, but QB Zach Mettenberger has struggled over his past three games (four TDs and five interceptions). Linebacker Lamin Barrow has a team-high 64 tackles for the Tigers (ranked third in the SEC in total defence). Alabama QB AJ McCarron (pictured), who is 33-2 as a starter, has entered the Heisman Trophy discussion by completing 72.6 per cent of his passes for 15 touchdowns with two interceptions over the last seven games. Alabama’s offensive line hasn't allowed a sack since the third quarter against Ole Miss on September 28, and running backs T.J. Yeldon and Kenyan Drake have combined for 17 rushing touchdowns this season. The nation's best scoring defense (9.8 points per game) includes safety Landon Collins, a New Orleans native who ranks second on the team with 34 tackles.

Confirmed bets

Boston College -25 @ New Mexico State (two units @ $1.91) LOSE (48-34)

BYU @ Wisconsin -8 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (17-27)

LSU @ Alabama -13.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (17-38)

Mississippi State @ Texas A&M +66.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (41-51)

Arizona State -6.5 @ Utah (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (20-19)

Kansas @ Oklahoma State -30.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (6-42)

Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh -51 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (21-28)

Leans

Nebraska @ Michigan +55.5 $1.91 LOSE (17-13)

Illinois @ Indiana -79 $1.91 LOSE (35-52)

Syracuse @ Maryland -55.5 $1.91 WIN (20-3)

Hawaii +15.5 $1.95 @ Navy WIN (28-42)

UTEP @ North Texas -27 $1.91 WIN (7-41)

NC State @ Duke +55.5 $1.91 WIN (20-38)

Texas -5.5 $1.95 @ West Virginia WIN (47-40)

Houston @ Central Florida -11.5 $1.91 LOSE (14-19)

Arkansas State @ UL-Monroe -3 $1.91 LOSE (42-14)

Southern Miss @ Louisiana Tech -17 $1.91 WIN (13-36)

Colorado @ Washington -27.5 $1.91 WIN (7-59)

UCLA WIN $2.05 @ Arizona WIN (31-26)

Fresno State @ Wyoming +79 $1.91 LOSE (48-10)

Note: No bets/leans were posted for the early games today due to connection issues (thanks to the world's most unreliable service provided by Vodafone Vodafone Vodafone)

EPL for November 9-10

Liverpool (6-2-2) v Fulham (3-1-6), Anfield, Liverpool, England, Sunday, November 10, 2am

A trip to Anfield couldn’t have come at a much worse time for Fulham boss Martin Jol. His chances of staying in the job are rapidly diminishing. His Cottagers have the worst record in the league against top-half opposition – five defeats from five. In 32 trips to Anfield, Fulham has won just once (in 2011-12). Martin Skrtel’s own goal that day was the only one they’ve managed in their last seven visits. Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge have more league strikes between them this season than the Fulham team combined. Sascha Riether begins a three-match ban after his stamp on Adnan Januzaj was retrospectively punished while captain Brede Hangeland has only just returned to training following a nerve problem in his leg. The Cottagers have only once scored more than one goal in a Premier League game this season (4-1 v Crystal Palace) and have only kept two clean sheets in 13 games in all competitions this season. Among teams who have played 100 or more games, only Derby County (15 per cent) have a worse EPL away-win percentage than Fulham (15.5 per cent).

The home side will be desperate to bounce back from defeat at Arsenal, and they’ve won five of six games this season against bottom-half teams. Liverpool are a joy to watch at the moment with such freedom of movement, and clinical finishing. The two strikers are in devastating form, and the midfield has been boosted by the return of Philippe Coutinho (pictured). The Reds are still a work in progress, but with Riether’s suspension weakening Fulham, there can be only one winner here. Glen Johnson is fit again for Liverpool after missing their defeat at Arsenal with a jaw infection while fellow full-back Jose Enrique could also return after a month on the sidelines with a knee problem. The Reds have only conceded three goals in 12 Premier League home games against Fulham. They’ve also won all six EPL matches in which they opened the scoring this season, the best record in the division. Sturridge is the joint-leading Premier League scorer in 2013 with 18 goals, the same as Robin van Persie and Christian Benteke. Sturridge’s only Premier League hat-trick came against Fulham in May.

Confirmed bets

Liverpool (to nil) v Fulham (two units @ $2.05) WIN (4-0)

Crystal Palace v Everton TT +1.5 (one unit @ $1.73) LOSE (0-0)

Aston Villa v Cardiff City -2.5 (one unit @ $1.60) WIN (2-0)

Leans

Aston Villa WIN $2.10 v Cardiff City WIN (2-0)

Crystal Palace v Everton 0-2 $8.00 LOSE (0-0)

Chelsea v West Bromwich Albion +2 $1.80 WIN (2-2)

Liverpool v Fulham +3.5 $2.05 WIN (4-0)

Southampton v Hull City 1-0 $5.50 LOSE (4-1)

Norwich City v West Ham United -2.5 $1.70 LOSE (3-1)

Football (FA Cup round 1) for November 9-10

FA Cup round 1: Gloucester City v Fleetwood Town, Whaddon Road, Cheltenham, England, Sunday, November 10, 2am

My proudest sporting moment as a competitor is related to the FA Cup. Playing at a level not much above park level in the south-east suburbs of London, my team Beckenham Town FC reached the second qualifying round of the FA Cup in 1992. We defeated Kingsbury Town 3-2 on the road in the first round before bowing out in a replay 1-0 to the ‘giants’ of Berkhamsted Town in the second round (and two full rounds short of the main draw). So what, I can claim an FA Cup start of sorts, and I’m bloody proud of it. There are still plenty of minnows on show as the opening round of the 2013 FA Cup continues tonight with League One and Two clubs taking on non-League sides from throughout the country. From a betting perspective, there’s outstanding value on offer in these early rounds as struggling League outfits meet aspiring opposition often situated just outside the League structure. There are plenty of amateurs looking to claim a big scalp too among the staggering 737 clubs that entered the competition this season.

One of the games that caught my eye was Fleetwood Town’s visit to Gloucester City. The latter have been on a permanent road trip since 2007 after floods destroyed their Meadow Park stadium. They play in the Skrill North competition at the sixth level of English football and are without victory in their past 10 starts. Gloucester City boss David Mehew will also be without former Bristol Rovers player Lewis Hogg for this clash with Sky Bet League Two leaders Fleetwood Town. Based on the Lancashire coast in north-west England, Fleetwood earned promotion to the League in 2012. Bizarrely nicknamed the Cod Army, Fleetwood looks good things here despite the absence of record signing Jamille Matt but loanees Charlie Taylor and Emmanuel Dieseruvwe have been given permission to play by respective parent club Leeds and Sheffield Wednesday.

Confirmed bets

Gloucester City v Fleetwood Town WIN (three units @ $1.57) WIN (0-2)

Leyton Orient -1 v Southport (two units @ $1.70) WIN (5-2)

Oldham Athletic v Wolverhampton Wolves WIN (one unit @ $2.10) LOSE (1-1)

Tamworth v Cheltenham Town BTS (one unit @ $1.67) LOSE (1-0)

Leans

Grimsby Town v Scunthorpe United WIN $2.60 LOSE (0-0)

Bury Town v Cambridge United WIN $3.20 POSTPONED

Gillingham WIN $1.44 v Brackley Town LOSE (1-1)

Hednesford +1 $2.00 Town v Crawley Town PUSH (0-1)

Gloucester City v Fleetwood Town +2.5 $1.57 LOSE (0-2)

Hartlepool WIN $2.35 v Notts County WIN (3-2)

Braintree Town WIN $2.80 v Newport County LOSE (1-1)

MK Dons -1 $1.91 v Halifax WIN (4-1)

Brentford -2 $2.70 v Staines Town WIN (5-0)

Preston North End WIN $1.50 v Barnet WIN (6-0)

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