Daily tips for November 28

Note: Bets are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).


Racing for November 28

Horse racing: Seymour (Vic), Wyong (NSW), Rockhampton (Qld), Albany (WA). Harness racing: Redcliffe (Qld), Bendigo (Vic), Penrith (NSW). Greyhound racing: Dubbo (NSW), Albion Park (Qld), Angle Park (SA), Warrnambool (Vic), Dapto (NSW), Hobart (Tas), Maitland (NSW), Sandown Park (Vic), Warragul (Vic), Mandurah (WA), Traralgon (Vic).

We’re off to Wyong on the NSW Central Coast where the temperature is a warm 30º for today’s eight-race card on a dead (4). My best of the day comes up in race 4, the Rinnai Australia Maiden Handicap over 1600 metres. #1 Hot Albert has been unlucky to run into some handy gallopers in his career to date and Chris Waller has taken him to Wyong for a confidence booster. Although still a maiden after six starts, a quick glance of his form shows runs behind the likes of Eurozone, Suit, Arabian Gold and Stamina. His last-start third also looks strong now with the second-placed Artistic Lad since bolting in by 6.3 lengths. First there was sharp filly Papillon Rouge. He’ll stride along out the back from the wide draw but will be within striking distance given the small field. Looks the race to break the duck.

Confirmed bets

Seymour R8 #6 Marks Matilda (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.30)

Wyong R4 #1 Hot Albert (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($1.50)

Leans

Seymour R1 #1 Hotel Sierra (win) 1st ($1.30)

Seymour R3 #1 Bernicatti (E/W 1x2) 1st ($5.20/$1.60)

Wyong R1 #1 Maddhal (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($2.80)

Wyong R7 #1 Crown Of Ascot (E/W) 1st ($6.30/$2.00)

Rockhampton R1 #1 Razandies Jester (E/W 1x2) 1st ($6.60/$2.90)

Rockhampton R5 #3 Vandalised (win) 1st ($2.10)

Harness racing tip: Penrith R3 #1 Long Road To Fame (win) 1st ($1.40)

Greyhound racing tip: Dapto R5 #4 Lachlan Bomber (win) 1st ($2.20)

NHL for November 28

Toronto Maple Leafs (14-9-1, 29pts) @ Pittsburgh Penguins (15-9-1, 31pts), CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA, Thursday, November 28, 11.40am

I was genuinely surprised to see the Penguins open $1.50 favourites here. Toronto trails Pittsburgh by just points and the hosts have a hefty injury list with which to deal. Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and James Neal are providing plenty of offense for the Pittsburgh Penguins, but the team’s overall play over the last two games has left something to be desired. Pittsburgh looks to avoid a third straight defeat here. Crosby’s goal with 0.3 seconds remaining in regulation Monday forced overtime, but the Penguins (15-9-1) eventually fell 4-3 to Boston. Neal had two goals for the second straight contest and Evgeni Malkin had an assist to give him eight along with a goal during a five-game point streak. Crosby has a goal in four of the last five, including one in each contest during Pittsburgh's three-game winning streak prior to the current skid. Neal has five goals and four assists during a four-game streak of recording multiple points. Pittsburgh forward Tanner Glass is expected to miss three to four weeks with a broken hand, while defenseman Paul Martin will miss this game with a lower-body injury.

The Maple Leafs have some issues of their own. Goaltender James Reimer (pictured) didn't have much to say after allowing each goal on 21 shots in Monday's 6-0 loss to Columbus, as the Maple Leafs (14-9-1) fell for the second time in three games. Reimer entered that contest 6-2-0 with a 2.10 goals-against average and an NHL-best .947 save percentage. Toronto allowed its most goals of the season, and its 18 shots were its second-fewest. Phil Kessel has three goals and no assists over his last 11 games, while Nazem Kadri had his three-game point streak snapped Monday. Kessel had a goal and an assist, Kadri scored and James van Riemsdyk had two assists in Toronto’s 4-1 victory over Pittsburgh on October 26. Reimer made 37 saves in that contest, though it's unclear if he or Jonathan Bernier will get start here. Maple Leafs forward Joffrey Lupul suffered a groin injury on Monday, and his status for this contest is unclear. BTW, Marc-Andre Fleury, whose seven goals allowed over the last two games match the total from his previous five, could be in net for the Penguins.

Confirmed bets

Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 @ Pittsburgh Penguins (two units @ $1.57) WIN (5-6)

Ottawa Senators @ Washington Capitals +5.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (6-4)

Chicago Blackhawks @ Calgary Flames +5.5 (one unit @ $1.77) LOSE (2-3)

Los Angeles Kings @ San Jose Sharks -5 (one unit @ $1.77) PUSH (2-3)

Leans

Winnipeg Jets @ New York Islanders +5.5 $1.91 LOSE (3-2)

Nashville Predators WIN $1.95 @ Columbus Blue Jackets WIN (4-0)

Montréal Canadiens WIN NT $2.00 @ Buffalo Sabres WIN (3-1)

Carolina Hurricanes WIN $2.13 @ New Jersey Devils WIN (4-3)

New York Rangers @ Florida Panthers +5 $2.10 WIN (5-2)

Philadelphia Flyers @ Tampa Bay Lightning -5.5 $1.93 LOSE (2-4)

Phoenix Coyotes WIN $2.05 @ Minnesota Wild WIN (3-2)

St Louis Blues WIN $1.83 @ Colorado Avalanche WIN (4-1)

Boston Bruins WIN $1.87 @ Detroit Red Wings LOSE (1-6)

Los Angeles Kings @ San Jose Sharks WIN $1.62 WIN (2-3)


NBA for November 28

San Antonio Spurs (13-1, 6-1 away) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (9-3, 6-0 home), Chesapeake Energy Arena (pictured), Oklahoma City, OK, Thursday, November 28, 12.10pm

The battle between two title contenders highlights a huge day of NBA action. The San Antonio Spurs have won 11 consecutive games and can set a franchise record for best start to a season if they can beat the host Oklahoma City Thunder. San Antonio also started 13-1 in 2010-11 before losing its 15th game. They’re outscoring opponents by 12 points per game and rank second in the NBA in scoring defense (90.1). San Antonio has posted seven double-digit victories during the 11-game winning streak, giving veterans like Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Parker plenty of opportunities to stay fresh. All the starters played 25 minutes or less in Monday’s 112-93 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans. San Antonio center Tiago Splitter (ankle) is probable after missing the second half of the victory over New Orleans. San Antonio is 6-1 on the road with the only loss coming against the Portland Trail Blazers on November 2. Spurs are 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings in Oklahoma City. The teams split four meetings last season with the home team winning each game.

Oklahoma City has won four consecutive games and is undefeated in six home contests. The Thunder are off to their best home start since relocating to Oklahoma City and the last better season-opening home stretch for the franchise was when the Seattle SuperSonics won nine straight in 2004-05. Point guard Russell Westbrook will be well-rested for the match-up with San Antonio’s Tony Parker after sitting out Sunday’s win over the Utah Jazz. Westbrook has had five full days of rest for his surgically repaired knee since he last played in Thursday’s victory over the Los Angeles Clippers. The Thunder saw the scheduling quirk – and a game against the lowly Jazz – as an ideal time to give the knee a break after Westbrook played 30 or more minutes in nine straight games since his return. He is averaging 21.6 points and 5.1 assists and has scored 20 or more points six times. Kevin Durant averaged 23.3 points against the Spurs last season with his outputs ranging from 19 to 26 points. The home team and favourite is 4-0-1 ATS in the past five meetings.

Confirmed bets

San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (88-94)

Indiana Pacers -7.5 @ Charlotte Bobcats (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (99-74)

Chicago Bulls @ Detroit Pistons -3 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (99-79)

Washington Wizards @ Milwaukee Bucks -190 NT (one unit @ $1.90) WIN (87-87)

Leans

Indiana Pacers @ Charlotte Bobcats -181 $1.91 WIN (99-74)

Memphis Grizzlies @ Boston Celtics -182 $1.91 LOSE (100-93)

Los Angeles Lakers @ Brooklyn Nets -200 $1.91 WIN (99-94)

Miami Heat @ Cleveland Cavaliers 1H +5 $1.91 LOSE (49-42)

Denver Nuggets +7 @ Minnesota Timberwolves $1.91 WIN (117-110)

Atlanta Hawks +9 $1.91 @ Houston Rockets LOSE (84-113)

Philadelphia 76ers @ Orlando Magic -208 $1.91 WIN (94-105)
Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks -5 $1.91 LOSE (99-103)

New York Knicks @ Los Angeles Clippers -9.5 $1.91 WIN (80-93)

Portland Trail Blazers -3.5 $1.91 @ Phoenix Suns LOSE (106-120)

Golf for November 28-December 1

The Emirates Australian Open, Royal Sydney Golf Club, November 28-December 1

The Royal Sydney Championship Course (pictured) plays host to the Australian Open for the first time in five years where 2013 Masters’ champion Adam Scott will aim to follow in Robert Allenby’s footsteps and become just the second man ever to win the Triple Crown of the Australian PGA, Australian Masters and Australian Open. Scott is undeniably the star player in this field but there’s value in taking him on at $3.60 as his form appears to have been tapering in the past fortnight. Likewise, I think it’s unlikely that Jason Day prevails here. He’s been on an emotional roller coaster having led Australia to victory in the World Cup at Royal Melbourne last week while mourning the loss of several relatives after Typhoon Haiyan swept through the Phillipines earlier this month.

Leading my list of contenders is 2006 US Open champion Geoff Ogilvy, who found a return to form with his return to Australia when finishing 67-69 for seventh in the Talisker Masters. That weekend display caught the eye for many reasons – he bettered Adam Scott across the same 36 holes and was just half a shot down on runner-up Matt Kuchar in terms of scoring average. More relevant is the fact that those rounds came after a switch in putter, which saw Ogilvy (once one of the most deadly operators on the green) find some confidence. It’s not lacking in his long game, with the former US Open champion claiming he’s “hitting the ball well enough to contend anywhere”. He is an outspoken champion of classic course design and Royal Sydney is one of Australia's finest examples.

While Ogilvy’s old adversary Allenby must be considered on a course that rewards the former’s exceptional driving, it’s Aaron Baddeley who is worth adding to the slip. Baddeley has endured a disappointing year or so, failing to build on his win at Riviera on the PGA Tour back in 2011. However, recent signs have been somewhat encouraging with a fifth in the CIMB Classic due reward for the work he’s been doing with coach Grant Waite. Back in 1999, Baddeley won the Australian Open at Royal Sydney while still an amateur, showing poise beyond his years. To prove that was no fluke, Baddeley returned to the course in 2006 and finished ninth despite an opening 75, producing a weekend score bettered only by the eventual first and second.

I’m keen to add John Senden to the list of contenders. The Queenslander is in good form, having finished in a tie for fourth in the US PGA tour McGladrey Classic at Sea Island, Georgia three weeks ago. He won the Australian Open on this course in 2006 and has finished in the top 10 on six of his last eight homeland appearances; twice as runner-up and never worse than 18th. That makes him a standout bet in the top-10 market. I’m also leaning to Matt Jones and Greg Chalmers based on their recent form in the US while Matt Goggin was runner-up at Royal Sydney five years ago and showed enough in Melbourne to suggest he could be among the front-runners here.

Confirmed bets

Geoff Ogilvy WIN (0.25 units @ $26)

Geoff Ogilvy – top 10 (1.75 units @ $2.75)

Aaron Baddeley – top 10 (one unit @ $2.75)

Leans

John Senden (top 10) $2.75

Matt Jones (top 10) $3.25

Greg Chalmers (top 10) $3.25

Matt Goggin (top 10) $4.00

Note: I'll be adding regular previews of PGA and European Tour events to the blog in 2014.

Football (UCL matchday 5) for November 28

Group D: CSKA Moscow (1-0-3) v FC Bayern Munich (4-0-0), Arena Khimki, Russia, Thursday, November 28, 4am

Bayern Munich are through to the last 16 of the UEFA Champions League and have injuries, snow and a much-improved CSKA Moscow side to contend with at Arena Khimki (pictured). Bayern have a perfect record in the group and will hope to continue that form here, as a win will secure top spot. CSKA are most likely playing for a Europa League spot bar an unlikely Manchester City implosion. Bayern dominated Dortmund last weekend for a 3-0 win and they’re favoured to take another three points here despite the absence of Franck Ribéry, Mario Mandžukić, Bastian Schweinsteiger, Xherdan Shaqiri, Claudio Pizarro, Diego Contento and Holger Badstube. Bayern can establish a UEFA Champions League record of 10 consecutive victories by beating CSKA, having equalled FC Barcelona’s 2002-03 feat of nine in a row when defeating Viktoria Plzeň last time out. Bayern have conceded just once in Group D, and have the best defensive record in the competition. Fringe players or not the personnel on the field for Bayern are still top quality.

CSKA Moscow haven’t impressed in this tough group with a tight win over the whipping boys Viktoria Plzeň their only success. Last time out in the tournament they were walloped 5-2 by Manchester City at the Etihad. CSKA have conceded at least two goals in each of their four Group D matches and have not kept a clean sheet in eight UEFA Champions League games, since a 0-0 draw at Trabzonspor AŞ on November 2, 2011. The Russian side are much improved since the clubs’ September meeting, surging up their domestic table with 20 points from their opening eight Premier Liga fixtures, their best start to a campaign this century. Seydou Doumbia scored the only goal at home to FC Spartak Moskva on Saturday, his seventh strike in five outings but Alan Dzagoev and Aleksandrs Cauņa will both miss here. Japanese striker Keisuke Honda is also in good form after scoring for his nation in recent international friendlies against Holland and Belgium. However, I expect Bayern to methodically eke out a win despite the conditions on offer here.

Confirmed bets

CSKA Moscow v Bayern Munich – to nil (one unit @ $2.45) LOSE (1-3)
Manchester City v Viktoria Plzeň +3.5 (one unit @ $1.96) WIN (4-2)

Real Madrid -1 v Galatasaray (one unit @ $1.75) WIN (4-1)

Shakhtar Donetsk WIN v Real Sociedad (one unit @ $1.67) WIN (4-0)

Leans

CSKA Moscow v Bayern Munich -2.5 $2.15 LOSE (1-3)

Anderlecht v Benfica WIN $2.05 WIN (2-3)

Juventus -2 $2.00 v FC Copenhagen WIN (3-1)

Bayer Leverkusen v Manchester United +2.5 $1.95 WIN (0-5)

Manchester City -2 $1.94 v Viktoria Plzen WIN (4-2)

Paris St Germain -1 $1.97 v Olympiakos WIN (2-1)

Real Madrid v Galatasaray +3.5 $1.99 WIN (4-1)

Grand Salami +23.5 $1.80 WIN (36)

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