Daily tips for November 4

Note: Bets are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).


A-League (round 4) for November 4

Melbourne Victory (1-2-0) v Wellington Phoenix (0-2-1), Etihad Stadium, Melbourne, Monday, November 4, 7.45pm

It’s a rare Monday night fixture to complete round 4 in the A-League marking Kevin Muscat’s first game at the helm of Melbourne Victory. Last week Ange Postecoglou farewelled the Victory against his former club Brisbane Roar, and the sense of symmetry continues with Muscat promoted to the top job and set to meet his former long-term mentor Ernie Merrick, now in charge of the Phoenix. It was Merrick who gave Muscat his first taste of senior football at Sunshine George Cross in 1989-90 and the fiery defender later became the Scotsman's stalwart captain as the pair won two A-League titles together at Victory. Now Merrick will return to confront to his former pupil and bring another Victory old boy Carlos Hernandez with him. All eyes will be on Muscat to see how the former Socceroo handles the pressure of stepping into Postecoglou’s sizeable shoes, while Merrick will be determined to prove Victory wrong for letting him go in 2011.

Muscat is unlikely to make any major changes to Postecoglou's preferred style and approach, but the 40-year-old will surely have his own ideas about how the game should be played. It will also be interesting to see how the Victory squad reacts to losing their authoritative, inspired tactician to the national team, and how they respond to the new man in charge. Consistency has been a concern for the Phoenix so far under Merrick. They impressed for spells in all three of their games to date, but have only two points to show for their efforts after conceding late to lose to Brisbane and failing to beat a substandard Newcastle side in Napier last weekend. A gritty 1-1 draw at Western Sydney was their best result to date, and more of the same fighting spirit may required if they are to keep Victory at bay here. Pablo Contreras is available again after serving a two-match suspension, but it remains to be seen if he will return to the starting XI straight away after Nick Ansell and Adrian Leijer impressed in his absence against Brisbane last week.

Confirmed bet

Melbourne Victory WIN v Wellington Phoenix (one unit @ $1.60) WIN (3-2)

Lean

Melbourne Victory v Wellington Phoenix -2.5 $2.10 LOSE (3-2)

Racing for November 4

Horse racing: Ballarat (Vic), Ballina (NSW). Harness racing: Menangle (NSW), Albion Park (Qld), Globe Derby (SA), Geelong (Vic), Terang (Vic), Pinjarra (WA). Greyhound racing: Albion Park (Qld), Launceston (Tas), Nowra (NSW), Wentworth Park (NSW), Angle Park (SA), The Meadows (Vic), Geelong (Vic), Ballarat (Vic), Bathurst (NSW), Northam (WA).

It’s the day before the Melbourne Cup, and you’d reckon that racing authorities would want to maximise the opportunity to promote the industry. Nope. There are just two meetings scheduled for today – a pretty standard midweek affair in Ballarat to go with the meeting at Ballina on the northern NSW coast. That’s it, unless you want to include the Cup parade through the streets of the city. Leave it to Greyhound Racing Victoria to take the initiative with a great night scheduled at The Meadows with the running of the Group 1 Hume Cup over 600m ($75,000 to the winner) and the Group 3 RSN Silver Bullet (525m). Entry is just $5. There’s a vast array of activities for the kids, who are admitted free if accompanied by an adult. I’ll post some tips for the meeting later in the day, to go with my Melbourne Cup preview and early leans.

Confirmed bets

Ballarat R4 #5 Spinderbella (win) 1st ($2.40)
Ballina R8 #5 Mucho Caliente (win) 1st ($2.50)

Leans

Ballarat R3 #13 Goddess Pele (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($1.70)
Ballarat R6 #11 Respect Me (E/W 1x3) LOSE (U/P)
Ballina R4 #3 Cool Tycoon (E/W 1x2) LOSE (U/P)
Ballina R5 #3 Object Of Virtue (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.60)

Harness racing tip: Terang R1 #6 Five Star Looka (win) 1st ($2.30)
Greyhound racing tip: The Meadows R8 #6 Bookkeeper (win) LOSE (2nd)

NHL for November 4

Calgary Flames (5-6-2, 12pts) @ Chicago Blackhawks (9-2-3, 21pts), United Center, Chicago, IL, Monday, November 4, 11.40am

There are just three NHL games on the card for today with goals assured in two of them. The Chicago Blackhawks haven’t lost at home to the Calgary Flames in more than five years. Continuing their recent scoring barrage against one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL would likely keep it that way. The Blackhawks look to run their staggering home win streak in the series to 14 games when they host the Flames here. Chicago (8-2-3) is 19-6-0 over its last 25 meetings with the Flames (5-6-2), including the playoffs. The Blackhawks have been particularly dominant at home, winning 13 straight while averaging 4.2 goals. Calgary is allowing an average of 3.54 goals this season, a stat that doesn’t bode well against a Blackhawks team riding a three-game winning streak in which they’ve received 16 goals from 11 different players. Patrick Kane (pictured) has gone without a point in Chicago's last two games but has done plenty of damage against the Flames with 28 points in 27 games against them. Another offensive outburst would give Chicago its longest winning streak since a seven-game run from April 6-19.

Corey Crawford has won all three of his home meetings with Calgary but he may be rested after making 26 saves Saturday. That would mean turning to Nikolai Khabibulin, who is 0-6-1 with a 4.19 GAA over his last seven against the Flames. Calgary will try to snap its long slide in Chicago while opening a four-game, six-day road trip. The Flames have picked up no momentum of late, giving up two goals in the first period of a 4-3 loss to Detroit on Friday that was their sixth in eight games. Sean Monahan, drafted sixth overall in June, is looking to build on his goal against the Red Wings after coming up empty in four straight games. The center is the team’s unexpected leader with seven goals, while Jiri Hudler has five and a club-high 10 assists. It’s unclear if Calgary will start goaltender Joey MacDonald, who has lost three straight with a 3.42 GAA after making 18 saves against Detroit. After this contest, the Blackhawks will be recognised by President Obama for their Cup title when they visit the White House on Tuesday.

Confirmed bets

Calgary Flames @ Chicago Blackhawks +5.5 (two units @ $1.80) LOSE (3-2) 
New Jersey Devils @ Minnesota Wild TT +2.5 (one unit @ $1.85) WIN (0-4)

Leans

Dallas Stars @ Ottawa Senators +5.5 $2.05 WIN (4-3) 
Calgary Flames @ Chicago Blackhawks -1.5 $2.22 LOSE (3-2) 
New Jersey Devils @ Minnesota Wild -5 $1.80 WIN (0-4)

NBA for November 4

Phoenix Suns (2-0, 0-0 away) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (1-1, 0-0 home), Chesapeake Energy Arena, Oklahoma City, OK, Monday, November 4, 11.10am

The return of All-Star guard Russell Westbrook (pictured) is timely as things haven't exactly gone as planned so far for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Coming off their most lopsided loss in three seasons, the Thunder open their home schedule seeking an 11th consecutive win over the unbeaten Suns on Sunday night. While the Thunder (1-1) got by lowly Utah 101-98 in Wednesday’s season opener thanks to 42 points from Kevin Durant, they couldn’t overcome Russell Westbrook’s absence in a 100-81 defeat at Minnesota on Friday. Reserve Jeremy Lamb scored a team-high 16 points but Durant had only 13 for the Thunder, who remain without Westbrook due to a knee injury suffered during the opening round of last season's playoffs. The loss was Oklahoma City’s worst since a 111-88 defeat at Orlando on February 25, 2011. Westbrook’s absence was also felt in the turnover department, as Oklahoma City had 21 giveaways. His replacement at point guard, Reggie Jackson, committed seven. The Thunder shot 48.1 per cent to finish third in the NBA last season, but have made 37.8 per cent in the early going.

Projected by many to finish at the bottom of the Western Conference, the Phoenix Suns, in contrast, have been surprising. Oklahoma City’s 10 straight wins over Phoenix (2-0) have come by an average of 14.8 points, the latest being a 97-69 victory February 10. The Thunder have won the past two meetings by 29.5 points per game. Taking down the Suns, though, could prove more difficult this time around. Phoenix, in its first season under coach Jeff Hornacek, is off to its best start since opening 4-0 in 2009-10. After beating Portland 104-91 in their first game, the Suns pulled out an 87-84 victory over the Jazz two nights later on Eric Bledsoe’s tiebreaking three-pointer with 0.7 seconds left. Second-year forward Miles Plumlee has also provided a huge boost with 31 points, 28 rebounds and six blocks through the first two games. Phoenix may need to lean on Bledsoe and Plumlee all the more with Goran Dragic uncertain to play. The Suns have dropped five in a row and six of seven at Oklahoma City. The Thunder have won their past four home openers.

Confirmed bets

Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder +196 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (96-103)
Boston Celtics TT -91.5 @ Detroit Pistons (one unit @ $1.87) WIN (77-87)

Leans

Boston Celtics @ Detroit Pistons -192 $1.91 WIN (77-87) 
Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat -13 $1.91 LOSE (93-103) 
Brooklyn Nets @ Orlando Magic +6 $1.91 WIN (86-107) 
Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder -13 $1.91 LOSE (96-103) 
Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5 @ New York Knicks $1.91 WIN (109-100)

Atlanta Hawks WIN @ Los Angeles Lakers $1.91 LOSE (103-105)

NFL (week 9) for November 4

Philadelphia Eagles (3-5, 3-1 away) @ Oakland Raiders (3-4, 3-1 home), O.co Coliseum, Oakland, CA, Monday, November 4, 8.10am

It didn’t take the other NFL teams too long to decipher Chip Kelly’s offence and, thanks in part to their instability at quarterback, the Philadelphia Eagles are having trouble producing any offence at all after a hot start. Now the Eagles will turn back to Nick Foles, who will try to make the most of another chance against a Raiders team seeking its third straight win at home. Although the Raiders held on for a 21-18 victory over Pittsburgh last Sunday, they continued their recent trend of starting strong before having to rely on their improving defence in the second half. Terrelle Pryor (pictured) broke loose on a 93-yard touchdown run and Darren McFadden ran in a pair of scores to help the Raiders build a 21-3 halftime lead before they were outscored 15-0 in the fourth quarter. Oakland has outscored opponents 59-20 while averaging 196.3 yards over the first 30 minutes in its last four games, but has been crushed by a 63-10 margin and generated just 91.3 yards in the second half of those contests.

Though they’re only one game behind Dallas in the NFC East despite two straight losses, the Eagles appear to be heading in the other direction after Sunday’s 15-7 defeat against the Giants. With Michael Vick out for the second time because of a hamstring injury, Foles makes his third start just two weeks after suffering a concussion against the Cowboys. Foles has appeared in five games, two as a starter, and has completed 52 of 90 passes for 622 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions. He completed only 11 of 29 attempts for 80 yards before getting knocked out against Dallas a week later. Foles will try to jump-start an offence that has scored three points in its last two losses after averaging 27.7 during a 3-3 start. LeSean McCoy, who leads the NFL with 733 yards rushing, managed only 103 on 33 carries in his last two games. Leading receiver DeSean Jackson had 11 catches for 84 yards in those contests. While the teams haven’t played since 2009, the Raiders have won three of the last four meetings.

Confirmed bets

Philadelphia Eagles @ Oakland Raiders WIN (two units @ $1.77) LOSE (49-20)

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers +42 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (10-34)
Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys +49.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (23-27)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks +40 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (24-27)

Tennessee Titans WIN @ St Louis Rams (one unit @ $1.74) WIN (28-21)

Leans

New Orleans Saints -6.5 @ New York Jets $1.87 LOSE (20-26) 
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills -41.5 $1.91 WIN (23-13) 
Tennessee Titans @ St Louis Rams -39.5 $1.91 LOSE (28-21) 
San Diego Chargers @ Washington Redskins +51 $1.91 WIN (24-30) 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +17 @ Seattle Seahawks $1.91 WIN (24-27) 
Baltimore Ravens WIN @ Cleveland Browns $1.77 LOSE (18-24) 
Pittsburgh Steelers +6 @ New England Patriots $1.83 LOSE (31-55) 
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans +43.5 $1.91 WIN (27-24)

Feature: Finding the Melbourne Cup winner

One of the world’s great handicap contests, the Melbourne Cup is also much more than a horse race – it’s a revered sporting, social and cultural event, that continues to play a significant role in defining Australia's national identity. Scores of TAB and picnic race meetings across the nation (almost 50 this Tuesday) along with thousands of office parties and BBQs on Melbourne Cup Day help define the event as the race that truly stops the nation. The Melbourne Cup is also one of the toughest races in the world to win. And if you listen to optimistic jockeys, trainers, owners, commentators, Home and Away cast members, etc; you’d think every horse has a chance of victory. The TAB and corporate bookies are more than happy to perpetuate the myth. Of the 24 runners that will greet the starter on Tuesday, less than half the field has any chance of winning the race. Any chance.

The realistic list of potential winners is probably as little as five or six. You’ll hear every single reason under the sun why horse X can win the race, but it’s a combination of factors that ends the hopes of many before the race is run – the ability to run out a strong 3200 metres on firm going under handicap conditions. Some are weighted ideally, some have great staying ability and others love a hard track but the combination proves a death knell for the bulk of the international contenders. That’s before you even consider the impact of the marathon trip from Europe, a long break between runs, weight, barrier and questionable Northern Hemisphere form. Having eliminated those without a genuine chance, there are some proven filters to run through the remaining contenders to come up with a list of potential winners.

1) In the 22 editions of the Melbourne Cup since 1991, 15 of the 21 winners had returned a career-best rating at their previous start. This tells us that the horse has been given the best possible preparation and is in the best form of his or her career.

2) A short campaign in the autumn carnivals (in Australia or New Zealand) also suits Melbourne Cup runners. This factor has produced six winners over the past 16 years. You’d have made good money betting this factor alone.

3) The horse is having its fifth run back from a spell. From a very small sample, this factor has provided five winners from nine years. In the past 18 years, there have only been 11 qualifiers. No horse qualified on this criterion last year, but eventual winner Green Moon (pictured top with jockey Brett Prebble) came closest.

4) Since 1993, there have been 13 editions of the Melbourne Cup where an international runner was racing at its second Australian start this preparation. This factor has provided four winners from 13 runners and also shows a nice profit.

5) Since 1993, when Vintage Crop won for Ireland, there have been 67 international starters entered in the Cup without a previous run in Australia. They have all lost! One day, this streak is bound to be broken but I’m happy to back against it happening in 2013.

I’ll be back later tomorrow (Monday) with my preview and tips for the 2013 Emirates Melbourne Cup, worth a lazy AUD $6 million!

EPL for November 4

Cardiff City (2-3-4) v Swansea City (3-2-4), Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff, Wales, Monday, November 4, 3am

This match-up marks a slice of EPL history as the first-ever Welsh derby. It’s safe to say that the hosts have more at stake here. There’s been a bit of everything in Cardiff’s early season schedule with that stirring come-from-behind home victory over Manchester City the undoubted highlight. That is the only time the home fans have witnessed a league win so far, though the visiting sides were Everton (0-0), Spurs (0-1) and Newcastle (1-2). Cardiff were unlucky during a battering at Chelsea but scored a last-minute winner to take all three points at Fulham. Most worryingly were rumours of unrest between owner Vincent Tan and manager Malky Mackay after the manager’s right hand man Iain Moody was sacked in early October. Instability at this key time of the season could derail the club’s attempts to stay up. Cardiff kept only their second Premier League clean sheet last weekend, against Norwich. The Bluebirds have faced more shots (174) than any other team in the Premier League this season. Craig Bellamy is expected to return to Cardiff's starting line-up while Craig Noone should also be available.

For Swansea this is game 18 of the season already but they seem to be juggling European football with the rigours of the Premier League successfully. After nine league games, Michael Laudrup’s team have an identical record to last year (W3, D2, L4), and their only defeats have been to Manchester United, Spurs, Arsenal and Southampton. Swansea’s ball retention and movement can be sublime at times and will irritate the opposition both on and off the pitch. When faced with easier opposition, the Swans tend to capitalise as shown by wins over Crystal Palace, Sunderland and West Brom. The return of Ashley Williams (pictured) return last weekend was a big bonus and it’s just possible that Swansea could take all three points without conceding. It was one clean sheet apiece the last time these two met (each recording 1-0 wins away from home in the 2010-11 season) and both come into this game off the back of 0-0 draws. Wilfried Bony and Michu have scored more goals between them (13) than the entire Cardiff squad combined this term (12). I suspect this will be an ultra-tight derby with goals in short supply.

Confirmed bets

Cardiff City v Swansea City -2.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (1-0)

Everton (double chance) v Tottenham (1.5 units @ $1.40) WIN (0-0)

Leans

Everton v Tottenham (correct score 1-1) $7.00 LOSE (0-0)

Cardiff City v Swansea City WIN $2.30 LOSE (1-0)

Motorsport (F1) for November 4

Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, Yas Marina Circuit, United Arab Emirates, Monday, November 4, midnight

Sebastian Vettel secured his fourth successive World Championship in style last week in India after winning his 10th race of the season. Red Bull also claimed the constructor’s championship for the fourth successive time. Some may, therefore, suspect the Red Bulls will lack motivation in the final three races of the season. I think it’ll be quite the opposite, at least this week. Aussie Mark Webber is racing F1 for the last time this season so he desperately wants to win another Grand Prix before exiting. Vettel has the chance to win his seventh Grand Prix in a row here, behind only Michael Schumacher (7) and Alberto Ascari (9). Abu Dhabi is typically hot and dry for the day practice sessions while the twilight start means the race is run in cooler conditions. The circuit is mostly low-speed but it’s an impressive spectacle with the harbour location and lights from the city. Webber put in a lightning lap to take pole over Vettel. Mercedes drivers Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton fill the second row.

Rosberg was second last week in India. It could have been Hamilton just as easily had he managed his tyres better and had a little luck. Therefore, there’s value in Rosberg and particularly Hamilton, having won here in 2011 and finishing second in 2010. While many fans would like to see Webber win a Grand Prix, the issue remains his poor starts. Vettel, Rosberg and Hamilton could easily pass Webber. Even if they don’t, Webber has not performed well here or on similar circuits so he needs to perform against the grain to win. Vettel is still a reasonably short price but he’s done nothing to suggest he won’t win again here in Abu Dhabi. Last year he finished third and won in 2010, the car is fast and well suited to the conditions, and he will want to win. Kimi Raikkonen will start from the back of the grid after his car failed scrutineering after qualifying fifth. Even though he won here last year. Fernando Alonso looks a safer bet to finish in the top 6. (Preview by Stephen Doig)

Confirmed bet

Sebastian Vettel WIN (two units @ $1.70) WIN (1st)

Leans

Driver leading after first lap (driver started second on the grid) $3.75 WIN

Lewis Hamilton (top 3) $1.90 LOSE (7th)

Fernando Alonso (top 6) $1.95 WIN (5th)

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