Daily tips for November 17

Note: Bets are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).


Racing for November 17

Horse racing: Geelong (Vic), Newcastle (NSW), Sunshine Coast (Qld), Strathalbyn (SA), Mt Barker (SA), Donald (Vic), Hobart (Tas), Pioneer Park (NT), Canberra (ACT). Harness racing: Griffith (NSW), Launceston (Tas), Ballarat (Vic), Northam (WA). Greyhound racing: Healesville (Vic), Mount Gambier (SA), Sandown Park (Vic), Canberra (ACT), Strathalbyn (Vic), Sale (Vic), Albion Park (Qld).

There’s a strong Aussie presence at Kranji this afternoon for the running of the Group 1 $1.35 million Longines Singapore Gold Cup. Jockeys including Craig Newitt, Glen Boss, Tommy Berry and Dean Yendall will join Singapore-based duo Corey Brown and Danny Beasley will ride in the 2200m race while Australian-bred horses dominate the field. And it’s Singapore-based Aussie trainer Michael Freedman who has a strong hand with two runners including favourite #1 Super Ninetyseven. The 4yo gelding has won seven of 13 including three of his past four. Despite trouble in the run, Alan Munro was able to stoke him up in time to claim victory in the Group 1 Raffles Cup on October 27. I’m leaning towards #6 Wild Geese. He was third to Super Ninetyseven in the Raffles Cup but will carry just 51.5kg over the extra trip at which both horses are unproven.

Confirmed bets

Singapore R11 #6 Wild Geese (E/W 1x2)

Donald R7 #4 Doing Our Best (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.30)

Geelong R7 #3 Smashing Doubt (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Newcastle R5 #5 Sansui Drawing (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.60)

Leans

Donald R3 #4 Benefit (win) LOSE (3rd)

Donald R5 #3 Quick Trip (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Geelong R2 #12 Blonde (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Geelong R5 #2 Magniloquent (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.60)

Newcastle R2 #3 Street Savvy (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($1.90)
Newcastle R4 #10 Another Prayer (win) 1st ($2.40)

Sunshine Coast R4 #3 Splendora (win) 1st ($3.10)

Sunshine Coast R6 #2 Torcello (win) LOSE (U/P)

Strathalbyn R4 #7 Speedalla (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($1.80)

Hobart R4 #4 Incumblonde (E/W) LOSE (4th)

NHL for November 17

New York Rangers (9-9-0, 18pts) @ Montreal Canadiens (10-8-2, 22pts), Bell Centre, Montreal, QC, Canada, Sunday, November 17, 11.10am

The respective records may be fairly similar but it’s hard to ignore the dominance of the Canadiens over the New York Rangers in Montreal. Carey Price hasn’t allowed a goal at home to the New York Rangers in almost three years. The Montreal Canadiens haven't lost to them at Bell Centre in over four. Price is expected to be back in net looking to continue his dominance of the Rangers and help the Canadiens to a ninth straight win over their Original Six rival. Montreal (10-8-2) has outscored the Rangers 30-7 over the past eight home meetings, including 16-1 in the past five. The Canadiens’ last defeat to New York on their home ice came in a shootout on March 17, 2009. That marks Price's only blemish at home versus the Rangers. He’s 6-0-1 with a 0.99 goals-against average over his past seven, posting four straight shutouts with 103 total saves. He last yielded a goal to the Rangers in a 3-2 win on January 15, 2011.

Not surprisingly, the Rangers would like to avoid discussing the past. Goaltender Cam Talbot said: “You never want to think about what’s happened in the past. You just want to keep looking forward.” The rookie may be accustomed to that strategy considering he’s started each time during the Rangers’ three-game road winning streak, compiling a 1.95 GAA in the process. That may be reason enough to have Talbot face the Canadiens for the first time. Henrik Lundqvist has lost four straight games in Montreal, racking up a 4.63 GAA. Lundqvist made 25 saves in Tuesday’s 3-2 loss to New Jersey, but drew some blame from coach Alain Vigneault for allowing a goal late in the second period on a backhand shot from a sharp angle. Chris Kreider is giving the Rangers a jolt offensively, getting 10 points in 11 games since being recalled from Hartford of the AHL. Rick Nash may be nearing a return from a concussion suffered in a loss at San Jose on October 8. He travelled with the team, but it’s unclear if he'll be available.

Confirmed bets

Grand Salami +49.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (55)

Chicago Blackhawks @ Nashville Predators +5.5 (one unit @ $1.95) WIN (2-7)
New York Rangers @ Montreal Canadiens WIN (one unit @ $1.77) LOSE (1-0)

Florida Panthers @ Colorado Avalanche WIN NT (one unit @ $1.72) LOSE (4-1)

Leans

Detroit Red Wings WIN $1.87 LOSE @ New York Islanders +5.5 $2.10 WIN (4-5)

Pittsburgh Penguins WIN $1.74 @ New Jersey Devils LOSE (1-4)

New York Rangers @ Montreal Canadiens -5 $1.91 WIN (1-0)

Buffalo Sabres @ Toronto Maple Leafs +5 $1.74 WIN (2-4)

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Phoenix Coyotes +5.5 $2.10 WIN (3-6)

Chicago Blackhawks WIN NT @ Nashville Predators $1.87 LOSE (2-7)
Carolina Hurricanes @ St Louis Blues WIN NT $1.62 WIN (2-4)

Edmonton Oilers @ Calgary Flames TT +2.5 $1.66 LOSE (4-2)

NBA for November 17

Dallas Mavericks (5-4, 1-4 away) @ Orlando Magic (4-5, 4-1 home), Amway Center, Orlando, FL, Sunday, November 17, 11.10am

They’ve been solid at home, but the Dallas Mavericks have started the season with a series of sluggish performances on the road. Perhaps facing the sub-.500 Orlando Magic, who they've beaten in seven consecutive road meetings, can help them figure things out. The Mavericks (5-4) are undefeated at home while averaging 114.3 points. They haven’t been nearly as successful on the road, going 1-4 including a 110-104 loss to Miami on Friday. Dallas committed a season-high 24 turnovers, with eight on steals by Dwyane Wade. The club is committing 17.2 turnovers per game and 19.2 per road contest. Dirk Nowitzki and Monta Ellis combined for 48 points but also committed five turnovers each. Ellis is one of the league’s most turnover-prone players with 4.2 per game. Fortunately for the Mavericks, Orlando (4-5) forces only 14.4 turnovers per game and averages 14.9 points off those mishaps. Plus, Dallas is 4-0 against teams with losing records, winning by an average of 12.3 points. Dallas remains one of the NBA's best shooting teams at 46.5 per cent.

Conversely, the Magic have been strong at home, going 4-1, though they were all but single-handedly bailed out by Arron Afflalo’s career-high 36 points in a 94-91 win over Milwaukee on Wednesday. Afflalo (pictured) scored 29 in the second half and finished 11 of 15 from the field, helping erase a deficit that was as large as 19 points in the second quarter. Afflalo hit five 3-pointers in the third, tying the team record for the most in one quarter, and was 8 of 11 from long distance on the night. The seventh-year pro is hitting 52.0 per cent of his 3-point attempts after connecting on 30.0 per cent last season. Dallas is letting opponents shoot 40.8 per cent from beyond the arc on the road, but Afflalo will still likely need more help Saturday. His teammates hit 35.8 per cent of their field goals on Wednesday, and Nikola Vucevic was the only teammate to score more than 10. The Mavericks have won 15 of the last 20 meetings, including seven in a row at Orlando since a 108-99 loss on March 31, 2006.

Confirmed bets

Dallas Mavericks @ Orlando Magic -204.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (108-100)

Philadelphia 76ers +8.5 @ New Orleans Pelicans (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (98-135)

Denver Nuggets @ Houston Rockets +211 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (111-122) 
Oklahoma City Thunder -10.5 @ Milwaukee Bucks (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (92-79)

Leans

Miami Heat -7.5 $1.91 WIN @ Charlotte Bobcats +194.5 $1.91 LOSE (97-81)

Dallas Mavericks @ Orlando Magic +3 $1.91 LOSE (108-100)

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Washington Wizards +193 $1.91 WIN (103-96)
Indiana Pacers (1-10) $2.75 @ Chicago Bulls LOSE (94-110)

Atlanta Hawks +4 $1.91 @ New York Knicks WIN (110-90)

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Milwaukee Bucks +197.5 $1.91 LOSE (92-79)

Boston Celtics @ Minnesota Timberwolves +202.5 $1.91 LOSE (88-106)

Brooklyn Nets @ Los Angeles Clippers +204 $1.91 WIN (103-110)

Football (World Cup qualifiers) for November 17

Africa group round 3, second leg: Nigeria v Ethiopia, UJ Esuene Stadium, Calabar, Nigeria, Sunday, November 17, 2am

The African champions Nigeria are within reach of a fifth World Cup finals after winning the first leg of this playoff against Ethiopia in Addis Ababa by 2-1. The Super Eagles have made four previous appearances at the Mundial in 1994, 1998, 2002 and 2010. They’ve also created a soft-landing ahead of the second leg clash in Calabar although they will be without injured duo Nosa Igiebor and Uche Nwofor. Coach Stephen Keshi has called up FC Toronto forward, Bright Dike to take up Nwofor’s place. The Nigerian manager has continued to stick to a large number of the squad from the 2013 Africa Cup of Nations the recalled pair Kenneth Omeruo and Gabriel Reuben. Nigeria was indebted to striker Emmanuel Emenike (pictured) for their first leg lead. He scored twice in Ethiopia and it should just be a matter of finishing the job off for the Super Eagles now. The African champions have six British-based players in their squad for this contest with the likes of Victor Moses and Shola Ameobi looking to provide alternative firepower to Emenike up front. John Obi Mikel will shield the back four and keep the Ethiopians at bay.

It is going to be a tough ask for the Ethiopians to upset the applecart and go on to win in Calabar where their East African rivals, Kenya, came close to winning during qualifying but for Nnamdi Oduamadi’s late strike. The Walya Antelopes will fancy their chances but at the same time if they are going to qualify from here they are going to need to take risks and that should play into the hands of the home side. They have never qualified for the World Cup final. The Ethiopians have 21-year-old Bidvest Wits striker, Getaneh Kebede back after he missed the game in Addis Ababa owing to a knee injury. Kebede scored against Botswana and South Africa. Salhadin Said remains Ethiopia’s biggest threat on the offence. The 25-year-old scored four goals in qualification. Sewnet Bishaw’s men ruffled feathers in the ongoing qualification by finishing top of Group A ahead of South Africa, Botswana and Central African Republic in the second round after they were docked three points and three goals for fielding an ineligible player against Botswana in June. Nigeria have defeated Ethiopia eight times and lost only once.

Confirmed bets

Nigeria 2+ v Ethiopia (two units @ $1.77) WIN (2-0)

Senegal v Ivory Coast BTS (one unit @ $1.85) WIN (1-1)

Leans

Nigeria v Ethiopia (correct score 2-0) $4.10 WIN (2-0)

Senegal v Ivory Coast +2.5 $1.95 LOSE (1-1)

College Football (week 12) for November 17

Big 12: (12) Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-1, 5-1 Big 12) @ (24) Texas Longhorns (7-2, 6-0 Big 12), Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX, Sunday, November 17, 7.30am

Oklahoma State has a clear vision of the Big 12 title and a spot in a BCS bowl game, and that path runs through Austin where the Cowboys visit No. 24 Texas. The Longhorns bounced back from a pair of ugly losses early and are ripping through the Big 12 with six straight victories. Texas is in first place in the Big 12, joining Baylor as the only teams remaining undefeated in conference play. The Longhorns barely survived with a 47-40 overtime victory at West Virginia last week but suffered a pair of crushing injuries in the win when running back Johnathan Gray (Achilles tendon) and defensive tackle Chris Watley (knee) were lost for the rest of the season. The Longhorns were left for dead after falling to 1-2 in September but recovered behind embattled coach Mack Brown. Texas was already playing through injuries to quarterback David Ash and linebacker Jordan Hicks, but the two latest setbacks could hamper what had been a strong running game while making one of the team’s weaknesses – run defence – an even greater concern. Texas sits eighth stopping the run; surrendering 185.1 yards.

Oklahoma State sits a game back from Texas in the Big 12, with the Bears looming on the schedule next week. The Cowboys are set up nicely with an injury-depleted Texas squad on the road and home games against Baylor and rival Oklahoma finishing out the regular season. Mike Gundy’s squad handily beat Kansas last week, 42-6. Clint Chelf (pictured) seems to have settled in under center for Oklahoma State, tossing six touchdown passes while running for 190 yards and two scores in the past three games after replacing an ineffective J.W. Walsh. The senior set season highs in completions (19), attempts (37), yards (265) and TDs (3) against the Jayhawks. Running back Desmond Roland has scored 10 of his team-leading 12 touchdowns over the past four weeks, including a 19-yard TD catch from Chelf last week. He’s rushed for 140 yards in two games after gaining a career-high 219 with four scores in a 58-27 win at Iowa State on October 26. OSU has dropped 23 of 27 all-time meetings with Texas and 14 of 17 at Austin. However, the Cowboys have won the last two visits, including 38-26 on October 15, 2011.

Confirmed bets

ULL @ Georgia State +59 (two units @ $1.91) LOSE (35-21)

Central Florida @ Temple +17 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (39-36)

Florida @ South Carolina -12.5 (two units @ $1.91) LOSE (14-19)

Oklahoma State WIN @ Texas (two units @ $1.70) WIN (38-13)

Indiana @ Wisconsin +68 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (3-51)

Purdue @ Penn State +44.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (21-45)

Miami -3.5 @ Duke (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (30-48)

TCU @ Kansas State +46 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (31-33)

Houston @ Louisville -57.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (13-20)
Oregon State @ Arizona State +63.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (17-30)

San Diego State -5 @ Hawaii (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (28-21)

Leans

Cincinnati @ Rutgers WIN $1.80 LOSE (52-17)

West Virginia @ Kansas +47.5 $1.91 WIN (19-31)

Iowa State @ Oklahoma +48.5 $1.91 WIN (10-48)

Ohio State @ Illinois +33 $1.91 WIN (60-35)
UNC WIN $2.00 @ Pittsburgh WIN (34-27)

Florida Atlantic @ Southern Mississippi +17 $1.95 LOSE (41-7)

Akron @ Massachusetts +7 $1.87 WIN (14-13)

UAB @ East Carolina -28 $1.91 WIN (14-63)

Michigan State @ Nebraska +6 $1.91 LOSE (41-28)

TCU @ Kansas State -11 $1.91 LOSE (31-33) 
Georgia @ Auburn +64 $1.91 WIN (38-43)

Miami @ Duke +61 $1.91 WIN (30-48)

Syracuse +38.5 $1.91 @ Florida State LOSE (3-59)

Utah +28.5 $1.91 @ Oregon WIN (21-44)

Texas Tech @ Baylor +84.5 $1.91 WIN (34-63)

Wyoming +24 @ Boise State $1.91 LOSE (7-48)

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