Daily tips for November 22

Note: Bets are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).


A-League (round 7) for November 22

Brisbane Roar (4-0-2) v Western Sydney Wanderers (4-2-0), Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, Friday, November 22, 8pm

It’s another marquee night in the A-League with a top-of-the-table clash between the Brisbane Roar and the Western Sydney Wanderers providing both teams an opportunity to underline their title credentials early in the season. Brisbane is coming off a shock loss to Newcastle last week and their record against Western Sydney isn’t flash. They should regain Ivan Franjic and Matt McKay (pictured) after international duty, while Besart Berisha, Liam Miller and Shane Stefanutto look set to return from injury. Suncorp Stadium was the venue for the Wanderers’ historic first ever win in the A-League, which came with a 1-0 victory in October last year. Brisbane failed in three further matches against the Wanderers, scoring just one goal in the four matches. This Roar side is a different one and is more than capable of beating Western Sydney. Roar have completed the most passes in the league (3451) this season at the second best pass accuracy (82.6 per cent) and have averaged 58 per cent possession of the ball all season with their ‘pass and move’ philosophy.

The Wanderers are unbeaten this season and two points clear at the top, picking up where they left off in their premiers’ plate-winning first campaign. Tony Popovic’s men have not needed to play too aggressively so far this season, but there will come a time when more goals are needed. They have eight in six games (equal second most in the competition) but their success has been based on their excellent and stubborn defence. Injuries and regular changes to the line-up have made it difficult, but it may only be a matter of time before they start clicking in attack. Popovic's side have the lowest percentage of backward passes league this season - they're always looking to break, at speed, and with deadly precision when they disrupt their opponents' attack. It will be intriguing to see two relentless units go at each other in a match that should be of finals quality. As impressive as the Wanderers have been so far this season, I fancy the Roar to take at least a share of the spoils.

Confirmed bet

Brisbane Roar DNB v Western Sydney (two units @ $1.66)

Leans

Brisbane Roar (by 1) v Western Sydney $4.15

Besart Berisha (to score anytime) $2.70

Racing for November 22

Horse racing: Cranbourne (Vic – night), Kyneton (Vic), Hawkesbury (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Orange (NSW). Harness racing: Newcastle (Vic), Young (NSW), Albion Park (Qld), Cranbourne (Vic), Maryborough (Vic), Gloucester Park (WA), Kalgoorlie (WA). Greyhound racing: Bendigo (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Casino (NSW), Cranbourne (Vic), Mount Gambier (SA), The Gardens (NSW), Mandurah (WA).

It’s the ultimate night of the year for punting degenerates as Cranbourne hosts the second edition of its world famous tri-codes meeting. Under this unique concept, which is being held under lights for the first time, racegoers will have the chance to enjoy eight thoroughbred, eight harness and eight greyhound races. The meeting has also been boosted by an innovative BIG6 that will give punters the chance to score a big result early in the night. Punters will know there fate after little more than an hour with the BIG6 taking in the first two races for each of the cards trots, greyhounds and gallops. I’ll post my best for each of the three cards later this afternoon.

Confirmed bets

Kyneton R8 #4 Cobden (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Hawkesbury R6 #1 Kobi Sun (win) 1st ($1.80)

Orange R6 #3 Wild Journey (win) LOSE (U/P)

Cranbourne R1 #8 Merry Magic (win) 1st ($2.40)

Leans

Kyneton R1 #8 Victorious Tale (place) 2nd ($4.20)

Kyneton R3 #1 Al Command (win) LOSE (U/P)

Hawkesbury R3 #1 Son Of Ross (E/W 1x2) 1st ($4.20/$2.10)

Hawkesbury R5 #3 Belted (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Orange R5 #1 Jenner (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.30)

Orange R8 #4 Templestone (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Ipswich R4 #1 Cyclone Al (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Ipswich R7 #5 Cooloola (E/W) 2nd ($2.40)

Cranbourne R5 #1 Kafil (E/W) 3rd ($2.30)

Cranbourne R8 #5 Velonski (E/W 1x2)

Harness racing tip: Cranbourne R6 #8 Stuck In Second (win)

Greyhound racing tip: Cranbourne R4 #3 Lites And Sirens (E/W 1x3)

NFL (week 12) for November 22

New Orleans Saints (8-2, 2-2 away) @ Atlanta Falcons (2-8, 2-3 home), Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA, Friday, November 22, 12.10pm

A year ago, the Atlanta Falcons were vying for the best record in the NFC while the New Orleans Saints were mired in one of the most frustrating seasons in team history. With the roles reversed in 2013, the visiting Saints can sweep the season series by extending the Falcons’ longest skid in six years to five games. The return of coach Sean Payton and addition of defensive coordinator Rob Ryan (pictured) has helped New Orleans (8-2) leave the dismal 7-9, bounty-scandal season of 2012 in the past and thrive once again. The Saints are 1.5 games behind Seattle for the best record in the NFC and looking for a third straight victory after rallying from a six-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat San Francisco 23-20 at home Sunday. New Orleans might be the most complete team in the league with Drew Brees directing the potent pass-heavy attack and Ryan’s revamped unit continuing to play well. Injuries are mounting on the defensive side, though, with cornerback Jabari Greer suffering a gruesome knee injury Sunday and rookie safety Kenny Vaccaro still questionable after missing the past two games.

Injuries, combined with a poor running game and struggling defence, has Atlanta (2-8) tied for the worst record in the conference after finishing an NFC-best 13-3 and coming within one win of the Super Bowl last season. The Falcons lost 41-28 to Tampa Bay on Sunday and have dropped four straight for the first time since a six-game slide in 2007 – the season before coach Mike Smith’s arrival. Atlanta’s defence was shredded by a rookie quarterback and a running back making his first NFL start versus Tampa Bay, so the Falcons might be in big trouble against Brees and the Saints’ high-powered attack. The offence has been far too one-dimensional, ranking 31st at 73.1 rushing yards per game, which doesn’t bode well against the Saints’ third-ranked pass defense. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan's 14 interceptions match his career high set in 2009 while his 89.2 rating is his lowest since an 80.9 mark in 2009. Atlanta’s defence is getting closer to full strength with linebacker Sean Weatherspoon back, but the unit continues to struggle and has allowed more than 400 total yards in two straight games.

Confirmed bet

None – I have this pegged as a letdown spot for the Saints after such a tough game last week, but can’t have the Falcons in their current state.

Leans

New Orleans Saints -9.5 @ Atlanta Falcons LOSE (17-13)

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons +53 LOSE (17-13)

College Football (week 13) for November 22

MW: UNLV Rebels (5-5, 3-3 MW) @ Air Force Falcons (2-8, 0-6 MW), Falcon Stadium (pictured), United States Air Force Academy, Colorado Springs, CO, Friday, November 22, 1.30pm

Snow and a temperature of -10°C will await the UNLV Rebels are they aim to get their season back on track against Air Force. The Rebels have lost three of their last four games (including back-to-back home defeats to San Jose State and Utah State) to spoil what had been a solid start to the year. The Falcons have struggled all season long but have been better of late, defeating Army at home before dropping a 45-37 shootout against host New Mexico. The X-factor in this game could be Rebels senior quarterback Caleb Herring, who will look to solve a Falcons pass defence that ranks fourth in the conference in yards against per game. Herring has thrown for more than 250 yards in three straight games, with seven touchdowns and just three interceptions over that span. His performance could ultimately determine whether feature back Tim Cornett (970 yards, 11 TDs) has room to run.

The Rebels may be in for a struggle here as they bring a shaky run defense into Falcon Stadium. UNLV ranks eighth in the 12-team Mountain West Conference in rushing yards allowed per game (234.5) while surrendering 22 touchdowns on the ground and 5 1/2 yards per carry. If Air Force has done one thing well this season, it's running the ball – the Falcons are second in the conference and 11th in the FBS in rushing yards per game at 277. Solving the Falcons' offence isn’t difficult – Air Force has run the ball an unfathomable 538 times so far in 2013, while attempting just 141 passes. But stopping the Falcons' ground attack is a much harder task; they're averaging better than five yards per carry with 26 rushing touchdowns spread out among nine different players. Eighteen different Falcons have at least one carry, led by Anthony LaCoste with 111 for 781 yards and six scores.

Confirmed bets

UNLV Rebels @ Air Force Falcons -58.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (21-41)

Rice Owls @ UAB Blazers +63 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (37-34)

Leans

Rutgers Scarlet Knights +17.5 $1.91 @ Central Florida Knights LOSE (17-41)

Rice Owls -17.5 $1.91 @ UAB Blazers LOSE (37-34) 

UNLV Rebels @ Air Force Falcons -2 $1.91 WIN (21-41)

NBA for November 22

Los Angeles Clippers (8-4, 3-3 away) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (7-3, 4-0 home), Chesapeake Energy Arena, Oklahoma City, OK, Friday, November 22, 12.10pm

There are just two games for consideration in the NBA today with the Clippers and Bulls chasing successive road wins. Chicago faces a tricky match-up in Denver so I’m going to focus on the visit of the Clippers to Oklahoma City. Chris Paul is setting NBA records as he drags the Los Angeles Clippers to the top half of the Western Conference. Paul will look to notch his 13th straight points-assists double-double to begin the season. Paul scored 16 of his 20 points in the fourth quarter and handed out 11 assists on Wednesday to guide Los Angeles past the Minnesota Timberwolves in the opener of a two-game trip. Paul went for 14 points and 16 assists in the first meeting with the Thunder but was overshadowed by teammate Matt Barnes, who got into a shoving match with Oklahoma City forward Serge Ibaka (pictured) after which both were ejected and was followed by some profane tweets from Barnes in the locker room. I’m kinda sorry Barnes is out for the rematch!

The Thunder will be looking for some revenge after suffering a 111-103 defeat to the Clippers in Los Angeles on November 13. Oklahoma City fell again the next night but took its last two, including a 115-113 victory over Denver on Monday that kicked off a six-game homestand. That skirmish between Barnes and Ibaka ended up being much worse for Oklahoma City, which squandered a nine-point half-time lead. Ibaka had been 6-for-6 from the floor in that first half before being tossed with six seconds left in the second quarter, and the team is increasing his role in the offence as it works in a smaller line-up. Ibaka is shooting 60.3 per cent from the floor over his last five games but was held to six points on 3-of-7 shooting against the Nuggets on Wednesday. I really like the Clippers here. They’re 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Oklahoma City while the Thunder are 1-8 ATS in their its last nine home games, with the majority of their wins coming by fewer than six points.

Confirmed bets

Los Angeles Clippers +5.5 @ Oklahoma City Thunder (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (91-105)

Leans

Los Angeles Clippers @ Oklahoma City Thunder -212.5 $1.91 WIN (91-105)

Chicago Bulls @ Denver Nuggets +1.5 $1.91 WIN +199.5 $1.91 LOSE (87-97)

NHL for November 22

Buffalo Sabres (5-17-1, 11pts) @ Washington Capitals (8-10-2, 18pts), Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA, Friday, November 22, 11.10am

Having struggled in the early stages of the season, the Flyers of Philadelphia have suddenly discovered their wings and have doubled their season’s win total in just over a week. Winners of four of five games, the Flyers look for a fifth straight home victory over the reeling Buffalo Sabres. Philadelphia (8-10-2) defeated Ottawa 5-2 on Tuesday, and has tallied at least four goals three times in its last five games after reaching that mark just once in its first 15 contests. Kimmo Timonen (pictured) had a goal and two assists against the Senators while Claude Giroux, Sean Couturier, Wayne Simmonds and Adam Hall also scored. Steve Mason made 32 saves and has a 1.56 goals-against average in his last five starts. By picking up nine points in their last five games, the Flyers have doubled their point total from November 9. They’re averaging 3.6 goals in their last five after recording 1.5 per game in their first 15. The Flyers have outscored the Sabres 17-7 in winning four straight meetings in Philadelphia, including the 2011 playoffs.

The Sabres (5-17-1) could use a turnaround of their own. Buffalo, which has an NHL-worst 11 points, has just two regulation victories, and the team is coming off Tuesday’s 4-1 loss to St Louis. Interim coach Ted Nolan, who took over on November 13 for Ron Rolston, said his team’s young roster still has a long way to go before it can be competitive. One major problem for Buffalo this season has been awful starts to games. The team has been completely dominated in the first 20 minutes of action, getting outscored 31-4. The Sabres have been outscored just 41-35 the rest of the way. Buffalo was actually able to find the back of the net on Tyler Ennis’ goal just 10 seconds into Tuesday's game. Buffalo gave it right back, however, as St. Louis tied the score less than a minute later, and added another first-period goal for good measure. Buffalo took two of three from Philadelphia last season with each team winning at home. A good spot for Philly, with the over also a solid play.

Confirmed bets

Buffalo Sabres @ Philadelphia Flyers WIN NT (two units @ $1.80) WIN (1-4)

Colorado Avalanche @ Phoenix Coyotes +5.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (4-3)
Nashville Predators @ Toronto Maple Leafs -5.5 (one unit @ $1.83) LOSE (4-2)
St Louis Blues @ Boston Bruins -5 (one unit @ $1.83) PUSH (3-2)

Leans

Buffalo Sabres @ Philadelphia Flyers +5 $1.83 PUSH (1-4)

Nashville Predators TT -2.5 @ Toronto Maple Leafs LOSE (4-2)

Carolina Hurricanes @ Detroit Red Wings -5 $1.91 LOSE (3-4)

Chicago Blackhawks WIN $1.70 @ Winnipeg Jets WIN (6-3)

New York Rangers WIN $1.91 WIN @ Dallas Stars -5 $1.95 PUSH (3-2)

Colorado Avalanche WIN $2.20 @ Phoenix Coyotes WIN (4-3)

Florida Panthers @ Edmonton Oilers WIN $1.74 WIN (1-4)

Tampa Bay Lightning @ San Jose Sharks WIN NT $1.77 WIN (1-5)

New Jersey Devils @ Los Angeles Kings WIN NT $1.75 LOSE (2-1)
Grand Salami -54.5 $1.91 LOSE (58)

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