Daily tips for November 11

Note: Bets are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).

Remembrance Day (November 11) marks the anniversary of the armistice, which ended the First World War (1914–18). Each year we observe a minute’s silence at 11am on November 11, in memory of those who died or suffered in all wars and armed conflicts. Lest We Forget. Pic: Flora Haggis/Flickr


Racing for November 11

Horse racing: Mornington (Vic), Ballina (NSW). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Cobram (Vic), Globe Derby (SA), Tamworth (NSW), Pinjarra (WA), Canberra (ACT). Greyhound racing: Ballarat (Vic), Nowra (NSW), Geelong (Vic), Bathurst (NSW), Angle Park (SA), Shepparton (Vic), Grafton (NSW), Launceston (Tas), Albion Park (Qld), Northam (WA).

After a long Melbourne Cup Carnival week, I’m taking a breather today – all the best to anyone having a punt!

NHL for November 11

Florida Panthers (3-10-4, 10pts) @ New York Rangers (8-8-0, 16pts), Madison Square Garden, New York, NY, Monday, November 11, 11.10am

The respective records of these sides don’t truly reflect the gulf between team – the New York Rangers are rolling after a rocky start and insist they’re not overlooking a Florida Panthers squad reeling from eight straight losses. The Rangers will try to continue their impressive turnaround when they host the Panthers at Madison Square Garden. New York (8-8-0) opened the season with six losses in its first eight games, surrendering an average of 3.9 goals, but has bounced back by winning six of eight while yielding 1.5 goals per game. The Rangers evened their record with Thursday’s 4-2 win at Columbus, one day after routing Metropolitan Division-leading Pittsburgh 5-1. A favorable two-game stretch should further help the Rangers as they host New Jersey on Tuesday. Henrik Lundqvist (pictured) will likely be back in net after Cam Talbot made 32 saves against Columbus. Lundqvist has won three of his last four starts (all of them at MSG) with a 1.01 goals-against average and one shutout.

The Panthers (3-10-4) are in transition after coach Kevin Dineen was fired Friday morning. The only team trailing Florida in the standings is league-worst Buffalo (7). They enter this contest on their longest slide since dropping 10 straight from March 19-April 8, 2011. The Panthers got closer to matching that dubious mark with Saturday’s 3-2 loss at Ottawa in interim coach Peter Horachek’s debut behind the bench. The only consistency has been negative for the Panthers, who own the worst power play in the NHL at an 8.5-per cent success rate. They’ve gone 1 for 25 with the advantage during the losing streak, scoring only 14 goals. Tomas Fleischmann leads Florida with 11 points, but he’s come up empty and was a minus-5 over the last two games. He had a goal and an assist in a 3-2 home win over the Rangers on April 23, but doesn't have a point on his last five visits to the Garden.

Confirmed bets

Florida Panthers @ New York Rangers WIN (three units @ $1.45) WIN (3-4)

Edmonton Oilers @ Chicago Blackhawks +5.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (4-5)

Washington Capitals @ Colorado Avalanche WIN (one unit @ $1.65) WIN (1-4)

Leans

New York Islanders @ Montreal Canadiens -5.5 $1.83 LOSE (2-4)

San Jose Sharks @ Winnipeg Jets +5.5 $2.10 WIN (4-5)

Florida Panthers @ New York Rangers -1.5 $2.35 LOSE (3-4)

Vancouver Canucks @ Anaheim Ducks WIN $1.62 WIN TT +2.5 $1.66 WIN (1-3)
Nashville Predators WIN $1.95 @ New Jersey Devils LOSE (0-5)

Edmonton Oilers @ Chicago Blackhawks -1.5 $2.25 LOSE (4-5)

Grand Salami +38.5 $1.91 WIN (45)

NBA for November 11

Washington Wizards (2-3, 1-2 away) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1, 2-0 home), Chesapeake Energy Arena, Oklahoma City, OK, Monday, November 11, 11.10am

Like a car engine on a cold morning, it took a couple of attempts before the Oklahoma City Thunder kicked into gear but they’re quickly approaching peak performance. The Thunder go for a fourth successive win against the visiting Washington Wizards, who also appear to have turned a corner following a slow start. Averaging an NBA-best 29.6 points in the early going, Kevin Durant (pictured) scored 37 and added eight rebounds, seven assists and three steals in Friday's 119-110 victory at Detroit. The three-time scoring champion, who shot 9 of 15 and made 17 of 19 free throws, has compiled 93 points on 52.0 per cent shooting during the team’s run. Oklahoma City (4-1) also got a huge boost from rookie Steven Adams, who chipped in 17 points and 10 rebounds off the bench. Adams, selected 12th overall in this year's NBA draft, had scored a combined 18 points in the first four games but could start to see a bigger role going forward. The Thunder’s reserves are averaging 34.6 points, 4.8 more than last season's mark, and guard Jeremy Lamb is fourth on the team with 10.2 per contest.

Things have started to click for Washington (2-3), which is seeking a third straight victory after beating Brooklyn 112-108 in overtime Friday. Second-year guard Bradley Beal matched a career high with 29 points and Nene scored 20 as the Wizards erased an 11-point deficit with 4:25 left in regulation. Marcin Gortat added 15 points and 12 rebounds and John Wall delivered 17 points, 14 assists, six boards and four steals. Wall also had a rough shooting night as Washington suffered its fourth consecutive loss at Oklahoma City, 103-80 on March 27. The 2010 No. 1 overall pick went 3 for 18 from the field, finishing with 18 points and 12 assists. Wall is shooting 29.0 per cent in four career matchups against the Thunder, by far his lowest mark against any opponent. Russell Westbrook, meanwhile, is averaging 27.3 points on 52.3 per cent shooting and 8.0 assists in his last three home games versus Washington. The All-Star point guard, who went 5 of 19 from the field on Friday, is averaging 21.0 points but shooting just 36.4 per cent. Durant is averaging 32.0 points in seven meetings with the Wizards since 2009-10.

Confirmed bets

Washington Wizards @ Oklahoma City Thunder +203.5 $1.91 WIN (105-106) 
New Orleans Pelicans @ Phoenix Suns +2 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (94-101)

Leans

San Antonio Spurs -3 $1.91 @ New York Knicks WIN (120-89) 
Washington Wizards @ Oklahoma City Thunder -9 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (105-106) 
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Lakers +3.5 $1.91 LOSE (113-90)

Football (FA Cup round 1) for November 11

Burton Albion v Hereford United, Pirelli Stadium, Burton upon Trent, England, Monday, November 11, 2am

Just three games are scheduled tonight to complete the first round of the 2013-14 FA Cup, with my money on the Brewers of Burton Albion over the Bulls of Hereford United. The Brewers will be without Shane Cansdell-Sherriff, who was sent off towards the end of the home league defeat to Morecambe last weekend and the defender will miss Sunday's first-round tie while he serves a one-match ban. Rory Delap recently suffered a setback in his recovery from an ongoing hamstring problem and will remain on the sidelines. The former Derby and Stoke midfielder has not featured for Albion since a 2-0 home defeat to Oxford on September 7. Boss Gary Rowett has hinted that he may use the tie to give some of his fringe players some much-needed minutes on the pitch, so the likes of Zander Diamond, Alex MacDonald, Dominic Knowles and Michael Symes could come into contention for starting roles.

Hereford have the intention of getting themselves into the hat for the second round draw, or at the very least forcing a replay at Edgar Street to boost the club’s coffers. Kingsley James isn’t expected to have sufficiently recovered from his knee injury to be able to take part at Burton. Chris Sharp is working hard to get over a dead leg injury and he will be monitored up until Sunday. Chris Bush will also sit the match out as he serves his one-match suspension for picking up five yellow cards. Sunderland have recalled loan goalkeeper Jordan Pickford to cover injuries – No. 2 Dean Lyness hasn’t played a competitive match for two months but is expected to cover. Burton have started the League Two season solidly, and hold a playoff position after 15 games. Meanwhile, Hereford lie just out of the relegation zone on the Conference table.

Confirmed bet

Burton Albion WIN v Hereford United (two units @ $1.53) WIN (2-0)

Lean

Bishop's Stortford WIN $3.60 v Northampton LOSE (1-2)

Rugby League (World Cup) for November 11

Group C: Tonga v Italy, The Shay, Halifax, England, Monday, November 11, 3am

Incentive is a powerful tool and the Italians have plenty here as they have a quarter-final at their beckoning with victory here over Tonga. The good news for the Italians was that their big win over Wales means any win – even by a single point – puts them in front of the Scotland on differential, making the equation a simple one: win and progress; lose or draw and bow out. The frustrated Mate Ma'a were favoured to progress from Group C and they will be looking to make a statement in their final game of the tournament. After the USA, Italy has been the surprise packet of the tournament. Key men up front for the Azzurri will be their powerful props, Raider Paul Vaughan and former Tiger and Titan Anthony Laffranchi (pictured). As a pair, they are averaging 300 metres per game over the opening two fixtures and will be crucial to putting the Azzurri in strong field position – from where the likes of in-form centre Aiden Guerra (two try assists, two tries, 122 average metres and 13 tackle breaks) will look to take advantage.

The fact they have been bundled out early will make the Mate Ma’a even more fired up, and their host of NRL players makes them dangerous across the park. Despite his team’s lacklustre performances, Warriors centre Konrad Hurrell has been devastating, averaging 165 metres per game with six tackle breaks and one runaway try. The battle between the experienced Brent Kite plus explosive Fuifui Moimoi and the in-form Azzurri bookends should be a highlight of this game. Both sides have won the yardage battle very comfortably in both their games so far – Italy by more than 300 metres against Wales and more than 400 metres against Scotland, and Tonga by 150 against the Cook Islands and by almost 450 against Scotland, yet they still lost. These have been two of the tougher sides to tip in the tournament. It remains to be seen how the fact that Tonga can’t progress will affect their motivation – or whether the fact there is a finals spot on the line will bring out the nerves in the Italians. I’ll happily take the Azzurri at the ‘plus’ here.

Confirmed bet

Tonga v Italy +4 (one unit @ $1.91)

Leans

Tonga v Italy WIN $2.42

Wales (1-12) $3.25 v Cook Islands

CFL (playoffs) for November 11

East Semi-final: Montreal Alouettes (8-10) @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats (10-8), Alumni Stadium, Guelph, ON, Monday, November 11, 5.10am

After a shocking start to the season, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats enter the playoffs on a high note as they prepare to host the Montreal Alouettes in the Canadian Football League East Semi-final. Hamilton won four of its last five games to finish the regular season 8-2 against East Division opponents, including two wins in three contests against Montreal. Tiger-Cats quarterback Henry Burris led the league with 4925 passing yards and running back C.J. Gable (pictured) was named East Division Most Outstanding Rookie. Gable recorded 1380 yards from scrimmage despite missing time early on due to injuries. Three Hamilton receivers – Bakari Grant, Andy Fantuz and Greg Ellingson – finished with at least 800 receiving yards. Mark Beswick was named Most Outstanding Special Teams Player with a league-high 24 special teams tackles, while linebacker Brandon Isaac has four sacks since joining the team mid-season. The ‘over’ is 5-1 in the past six meetings in Hamilton, and the Tiger-Cats are 9-4 ATS in their past 13 games overall. Hamilton was 6-3 playing its home games at Alumni Stadium in Guelph this season.

The Alouettes season began with Anthony Calvillo at QB and Dan Hawkins as coach. With Hawkins fired and Calvillo injured, Montreal finished the season with a very different look under new pivot Troy Smith, but defence remains its most reliable asset. Alouettes linebacker Chip Cox was named East Division Most Outstanding Defensive Player after leading the league with 114 tackles and adding 12 sacks and four interceptions for a defense that allowed a league-low 88.4 rushing yards per game. Smith has yet to reach 1000 passing yards in the CFL and his inexperience shows in his accuracy: a 60-for-114 completion rate with five interceptions. Smith has plenty of targets available, including S.J. Green, Arland Bruce and rookie Duron Carter, who finished the regular season with 909 receiving yards despite making his CFL debut in August. Alouettes RB Tyrell Sutton rushed for 185 yards in the last two games against the Tiger-Cats. Montreal’s defence was tied for the league-lead in interceptions with 24, with a league-best seven caught by cornerback Geoff Tisdale. The ‘under’ is 10-4 in the Alouettes past 14 against the East.

Confirmed bets

Montreal Alouettes @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats WIN (two units @ $1.60) WIN (16-19)

BC Lions @ Saskatchewan Roughriders -51.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (25-29)

Leans

Montreal Alouettes @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats -51.5 $1.91 WIN (16-19)

BC Lions +4.5 $1.91 @ Saskatchewan Roughriders WIN (25-29)

NFL (week 10) for November 11

Carolina Panthers (5-3, 2-2 away) @ San Francisco 49ers (6-2, 3-1 home), Candlestick Park, San Francisco, CA, Monday, November 11, 8.10am

The Carolina Panthers are one of the form teams in the NFL but their winning streak hasn’t come against the best competition (combined record 8-33). They have the chance to confirm their status as a legitimate playoff contender when they visit the San Francisco 49ers. A five-game win streak by the 49ers is the only one among NFC teams currently longer than the Panthers (5-3), who have won four in a row and scored at least 30 points in each victory while limiting opponents to 15 or fewer. The play of Carolina QB Cam Newton has illustrated the pattern of their season. He completed 57.5 per cent of his passes with six TDs, five interceptions and a 78.4 passer rating in the team’s first four games. During the win streak, Newton is completing 72.3 percent with seven TDs, two picks and a 109.8 rating along with three rushing touchdowns. The Panthers have clearly found a game-plan that works for Newton’s skill set. Carolina is a game behind New Orleans for the NFC South lead as the franchise seeks its first five-game win streak since a six-game run in 2005.

San Francisco is coming off its bye week after winning five in a row by a 174-61 margin after being outscored 56-10 in losses to Seattle and Indianapolis. The 49ers' win streak hasn't come against top-flight competition, either, with those opponents posting a 13-28 record. Both quarterbacks figure to be tested, with Newton going up against a San Francisco defence that ranks fourth in opponent passer rating (75.3). Colin Kaepernick (pictured) has rushed 18 times for 122 yards and three scores in his last two games, but Carolina has given up a total of 43 yards on 21 carries to opposing quarterbacks this year with no TDs. Frank Gore, second in the NFL in rushing since Week 3 with 558 yards, is facing the league’s second-best run defence (79.1 ypg). While the 49ers’ passing game has floundered (they rank last in yardage) Kaepernick should be helped by Mario Manningham’s expected season debut. Manningham, out since suffering a knee injury last December, was second on the team last season with 42 receptions for 449 yards. Carolina has won seven of the last nine meetings, including three of four in San Francisco. Not this time.

Confirmed bets

Carolina Panthers @ San Francisco 49ers -5.5 (two units @ $1.91) LOSE (10-9)

Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints -6.5 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (17-49)

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers +58 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (28-20)

Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers -43 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (10-23)

St Louis Rams @ Indianapolis Colts -9 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (38-8)

Oakland Raiders @ New York Giants -44.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (20-24)

Leans

Jacksonville Jaguars +14 $1.80 @ Tennessee Titans WIN (29-27)

Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers +47 $1.91 LOSE (27-13)

Oakland Raiders +7.5 $1.83 @ New York Giants WIN (20-24)

St Louis Rams @ Indianapolis Colts +44 $1.91 WIN (38-8)

Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons -45 $1.91 WIN (33-10)

Cincinnati Bengals WIN $1.83 @ Baltimore Ravens LOSE (17-20)

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears WIN $1.83 LOSE (21-19)

Houston Texans +3 $1.91 PUSH @ Arizona Cardinals +42 $1.91 WIN (24-27)

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers +8.5 $1.80 WIN (28-20)

EPL for November 10-11

Manchester United (5-2-3) v Arsenal (8-1-1), Old Trafford, Manchester, England, Monday, November 11, 3.10am

Despite being four points clear at the top of the Premier League table, and with impressive victories over Liverpool and Dortmund under their belt, Arsenal find themselves $3.30 outsiders for this visit to Old Trafford. However, closer examination shows the price is fair. Manchester United have rallied in recent weeks after a difficult start to life under David Moyes, and are currently on an eight-match unbeaten streak and have had an extra day’s rest compared to Arsenal after matchday 4 of the Champions League. David Moyes has rotated his side well over the past week – only four outfielders started both the Fulham and Real Sociedad games, whereas Arsene Wenger has limited options because of injuries and named an unchanged side for the Dortmund game. Wayne Rooney (pictured) and Robin van Persie have 16 goals between them. Rooney has scored 12 league and cup goals against the Gunners, including a hat-trick in the 8-2 hammering of 2011. He was also accused of diving to win a penalty in the infamous “Pizzagate” clash that ended the Arsenal Invincibles’ unbeaten run of 49 games in 2004.

This Arsenal side is good enough to become European champions, according to Borussia Dortmund boss Jurgen Klop. Arsenal are confident Mathieu Flamini will be fit despite a recent groin problem, while Jack Wilshere's ankle injury will be assessed but Theo Walcott, Yaya Sanogo, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Lukas Podolski and Abou Diaby all remain sidelined by injury. United have flunked their big tests so far against Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City. Another defeat would leave them 11 points behind the Gunners and the title would be gone. The Red Devils have lost just one of their last 12 league and cup games against the Gunners (W9, D2, L1). Arsenal are the only Premier League club to have scored in every game this season. The last team to shut-out the Gunners was David Moyes’ Everton in a 0-0 draw at the Emirates on April 16. Wenger has registered 14 Premier League victories against Moyes – his highest tally against any manager. I expect the attacking talent on show here to generate at least one more to cover the 2.5-goal line.

Confirmed bets

Manchester United v Arsenal +2.5 (two units @ $1.70) LOSE (1-0)
Tottenham v Newcastle United – double chance (one unit @ $2.45) WIN (0-1)
Swansea City v Stoke City -2.5 (one unit @ $1.60) LOSE (3-3)

Leans

Sunderland +2 $1.62 WIN v Manchester City -2.5 $2.35 WIN (1-0)

Manchester United WIN $2.30 v Arsenal WIN (1-0)

Swansea City WIN $1.87 v Stoke City LOSE (3-3)

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