Daily tips for December 1

Note 1: Bets are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).


Racing for December 1

Horse racing: Wodonga (Vic), Kembla Grange (NSW), Sunshine Coast (Qld), Murray Bridge (SA), Geraldton (WA), Swan Hill (Vic), Lismore (NSW), Goondiwindi (Qld), Hobart (Tas), Pioneer Park (NT). Harness racing: Parkes (NSW), Launceston (Tas), Stawell (Vic), Kalgoorlie (WA), Tamworth (NSW). Greyhound racing: Albion Park (Qld), Bendigo (Vic), Canberra (ACT), Healesville (Vic), Mount Gambier (SA), Sale (Vic), Sandown Park (Vic), Strathalbyn (SA).

It’s Wodonga Cup day on the Victoria/NSW border while for my best of the day, we’re off to Kembla Grange where today’s eight-race meeting is being run on a dead (4). Race 4 is the Lake Illawarra CG&E Maiden Plate over 1200 metres at set weights. #7 Centre Pivot is a superbly bred More Than Ready colt out of Waterwise owned by Segenhoe and trained for them by John O'Shea (pictured). This striking 3YO has had five trials dating back to October 12, with his last two (November 1 and November 21, which he won by two lengths) for O'Shea after the horse moved from Graeme Rogerson's stable a few doors down at Randwick. He looks a class above this bunch.

Confirmed bets

Wodonga R2 #7 Miss Pin Up (win) 1st ($1.65)

Kembla Grange R4 #7 Centre Pivot (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.30)

Kembla Grange R6 #1 Lucky Lucky Lucky (E/W 1x2) 1st ($4.00/$1.70)

Sunshine Coast R5 #3 Arctic Passage (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($2.30)

Lismore R3 #13 Tiana (win) SCRATCHED

Hobart R8 #5 Bag Of Monkeys (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.50)

Leans

Wodonga R1 #3 Reggio (win) 1st ($1.75)

Wodonga R7 #3 Stacey Lee (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Kembla Grange R2 #4 O’Reilly’s Revenge (win) 1st ($3.00)

Kembla Grange R7 #9 Chosen Song (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Sunshine Coast R6 #7 Sizzling Song (win) LOSE (4th)

Murray Bridge R6 #2 Whitten’s Brew (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Murray Bridge R7 #2 Love A Giggle (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($2.20)

Lismore R4 #8 Don’t Tell Me (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Lismore R7 #3 Perfect Timing (E/W 1x2) 1st ($3.60/$2.30)

Swan Hill R4 #5 Quantum Light (win) 1st ($2.70)

Swan Hill R6 #2 Hanging Loose (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Goondiwindi R3 #1 Bam’s Boy (win) LOSE (3rd)

Hobart R3 #5 Niloufar (win) 1st ($1.90)

NHL for December 1

Calgary Flames (8-13-4, 20pts) @ Los Angeles Kings (16-6-4, 37pts), STAPLES Center, Los Angeles, CA, Sunday, December 1, 2.10pm

The Los Angeles Kings have earned at least one point in 11 consecutive games, but leaving a few on the table recently has tempered their mood a bit. They look to keep that streak alive by picking up the maximum at home against a banged-up Calgary Flames team that has dropped three of four. The Kings (16-6-4) are 7-0-4 during their run as Ben Scrivens (pictured) has gone 5-0-4 with a 1.34 goals-against average. He’s been the regular starter since Jonathan Quick, expected to miss at least another three weeks, suffered a Grade 2 groin strain on November 12. Los Angeles beat Vancouver 3-2 on Monday following back-to-back overtime losses to New Jersey and Colorado, respectively, but fell 3-2 to San Jose on Wednesday after an eight-round shootout. Despite the long point streak, the Kings have gained only four in that span on Pacific Division co-leaders Anaheim and San Jose, which are three points ahead of Los Angeles. Jeff Carter scored Monday in his second game back after missing 10 with a lower-body injury, marking his first goal since scoring in the first meeting with the Flames on October 21.

Los Angeles let at least a point slip away in that contest, as T.J. Brodie scored on the power play with 30 seconds remaining to give Calgary a 3-2 victory that ended its four-game skid in the series. The Flames (8-13-4) have lost 12 of 16 since that contest, though, and are dealing with multiple injuries. Most notably, standout rookie Sean Monahan is week to week with a non-displaced fracture in his left foot. Monahan is second among rookies in scoring with nine goals and six assists, but he missed Saturday’s 5-2 loss to Anaheim and won’t play here. Defenseman Dennis Wideman broke his left hand in Wednesday’s loss to Chicago, and he will have surgery that will force him to miss 6-8 weeks. Calgary allowed the first three goals and couldn't recover Saturday despite goals from David Jones and Ladislav Smid. Reto Berra made 33 saves before being replaced by Karri Ramo, who stopped all four shots he faced. Ramo will get his first start since November 8 on Saturday. He made 27 saves in the first meeting with the Kings and is 2-4-1 with a 3.59 GAA in eight appearances.

Confirmed bets

Calgary Flames @ Los Angeles Kings -1.5 (one unit @ $2.05) LOSE (2-1)

Vancouver Canucks @ New York Rangers +5 (one unit @ $1.94) WIN (2-5)

Chicago Blackhawks @ Phoenix Coyotes +5.5 (one unit @ $1.80) WIN (5-2)

Minnesota Wild @ Colorado Avalanche WIN (one unit @ $1.77) WIN (2-3)

Columbus Blue Jackets @ Boston Bruins WIN NT (one unit @ $1.70) WIN (1-3)

Leans

Columbus Blue Jackets @ Boston Bruins -5 $2.10 WIN (1-3)

Toronto Maple Leafs WIN $2.50 @ Montreal Canadiens LOSE (2-4)

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Florida Panthers -5.5 $1.83 LOSE (5-1)

Buffalo Sabres @ New Jersey Devils -5 $1.83 WIN (0-1)

Washington Capitals WIN $1.91 @ New York Islanders WIN (3-2)

Philadelphia Flyers WIN $2.00 @ Nashville Predators WIN (3-2)

Calgary Flames @ Los Angeles Kings +5 $1.74 LOSE (2-1)

Anaheim Ducks @ San Jose Sharks WIN NT $1.77 WIN (3-4)

NBA for December 1

Chicago Bulls (7-7, 2-7 away) @ Cleveland Cavaliers (4-12, 3-3 home), Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH, Sunday, December 1, 11.40am

There are days when you look at an NBA card and the value jumps off the page even before you look at the key numbers. Today is not one of those days, with a minefield awaiting punters who choose to tip-toe their way across the card. An ideal example is the visit of the Bulls to 4-12 Cleveland – Chicago may not be putting up great numbers but they’re sure as hell better than the woeful Cavs. The Bulls appear to have regrouped after absorbing the shock of losing Derrick Rose again. The Bulls (7-7) ended a four-game skid with Friday’s 99-79 win at Detroit, its third game without Rose after he was lost for the season due to a torn meniscus. They were blasted for a 39-point defeat against the Los Angeles Clippers in the next game, then took an overtime loss against league-worst Utah on Monday despite holding the Jazz to 38.8 per cent shooting. Chicago's defense put the clamps on the Pistons in the second half, giving up just 26 points on 27.8 per cent shooting.

Luol Deng (pictured) is shooting 51.4 per cent from three-point range over his last 11 match-ups with Cleveland, though he was three of 12 from the floor overall in Chicago’s 96-81 home win on November 11, the Bulls’ 12th victory in 13 meetings. Chicago scored 29 points off 18 Cleveland turnovers. With a struggling offence, the Cavaliers may not prove much of a challenge as Chicago closes its six-game road trip. The Cavs (4-12) dropped their fifth straight with a 103-88 loss at Boston. Playing Chicago likely won't cure Cleveland’s offensive lull, as the team is averaging 90.7 points through a 1-8 stretch, including four games with 86 points or fewer. The Cavaliers managed just 10 points in Friday’s first quarter and shot 37.2 per cent for the game. Kyrie Irving had another inefficient performance, scoring 17 on 7-of-16 shooting with four turnovers compared to three assists. He’s shooting 39.2 per cent over his past four contests, including 1 of 16 from three-point range. Irving has also struggled against Chicago, hitting just 35.7 per cent of his field goals in four meetings.

Confirmed bets

Chicago Bulls @ Cleveland Cavaliers -182.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (93-97)

Brooklyn Nets @ Memphis Grizzlies -9 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (97-88)

Boston Celtics -2 @ Milwaukee Bucks (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (85-92)

Houston Rockets @ San Antonio Spurs +205 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (112-106)

Leans

Atlanta Hawks @ Washington Wizards +191 $1.91 WIN (101-108)

Brooklyn Nets @ Memphis Grizzlies -186 $1.91 PUSH (97-88)

Minnesota Timberwolves -2 $1.91 @ Dallas Mavericks WIN (112-106)

Houston Rockets +6 $1.91 PUSH @ San Antonio Spurs +205 $1.91 WIN (112-106)

Utah Jazz +9 $1.91 @ Phoenix Suns WIN (112-104)

College Football (week 14) for December 1

1 Alabama Crimson Tide (11-0, 7-0 SEC) @ 4 Auburn Tigers (10-1, 6-1 SEC), Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL, Sunday, December 1, 7.30am

It may not be the best betting game of the weekend, but it’s the game that’s the talk of the nation (and among a random set of bettors on this side of the world). Fans have been camped out since last weekend in anticipation of the latest installment of a bitter rivalry, as No. 5 Auburn hosts No. 1 Alabama with a trip to the SEC Championship on the line. As if an intra-state rivalry dating to 1893 wasn't enough, the victor will remain in the national championship discussion. The winner of the Iron Bowl has won the BCS National Championship in the past four seasons. The early-season concerns about the Crimson Tide’s defence have proven unfounded, as Alabama ranks third in the nation in total defense (263.9 yards per game) and leads the nation at 9.3 points allowed per contest. The offence is often downplayed, but quarterback A.J. McCarron is enjoying another outstanding season, completing 68.6 per cent of his passes for 2399 yards with 23 touchdowns and five interceptions. Leading rusher T.J. Yeldon (1022 yards, 12 TDs) sat out last week’s 49-0 win over Tennessee-Chattanooga with a toe injury but is expected to play.

Both teams are enjoying charmed seasons – Alabama has claimed nine of its 11 games by 21 points or more, and Auburn has won seven straight since a 35-21 loss at LSU. They'll have to be at their very best to knock off the Crimson Tide, who have won the last two meetings 42-14 and 49-0 and did not allow an offensive touchdown in either game. The Tigers boast the top ground game in the SEC with Tre Mason (1153 yards, 17 TDs) and quarterback Nick Marshall (823 yards, nine TDs) leading the way, but they know they'll need to be more balanced against a tough Alabama defence. Auburn can't afford a slow start that would force it to the passing game, so the sometimes-suspect defense must slow down the Crimson Tide early. If the Tigers are going to pull off the upset, they might need a big play on special teams from returner Chris Davis, who leads the nation in punt return average at 22.5 yards including an 85-yard touchdown at Tennessee. Alabama is 1-4 ATS in its past five road games versus a team with a winning home record.

Confirmed bets

Alabama @ Auburn -56 (one unit @ $1.95) LOSE (28-34) 
Minnesota +17 @ Michigan State (one unit @ $1.95) WIN (17-28) 
Rutgers @ Connecticut -48.5 (one unit @ $1.94) WIN (17-28)

Virginia Tech @ Virginia +12.5 (one unit @ $1.94) WIN (16-6)
Notre Dame @ Stanford +49 (one unit @ $1.94) LOSE (20-27)
Arizona @ Arizona State +60.5 (one unit @ $1.94) WIN (21-58)
Ohio State -15.5 @ Michigan (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (42-41)
Baylor @ TCU +64.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (41-38)
Duke +6 @ North Carolina (one unit @ $1.90) WIN (27-25)
Texas A&M @ Missouri +66 (one unit @ $1.88) LOSE (21-28)
UTEP @ Middle Tennessee +56 (one unit @ $1.94) WIN (17-48)
New Mexico +37 @ Boise State (one unit @ $1.86) WIN (17-45)
UCLA @ USC +51.5 (one unit @ $1.85) LOSE (35-14)
Clemson +3.5 @ South Carolina (one unit @ $1.81) LOSE (17-31)

Leans

Rutgers @ Connecticut +2.5 $2.07 WIN (17-28)

Florida State -27 $1.98 @ Florida WIN (37-7)

Kansas State @ Kansas +51.5 $1.94 LOSE (31-10)

Minnesota @ Michigan State -41 $1.96 WIN (3-14)

Wake Forest @ Vanderbilt -14 $1.95 LOSE (21-23)

Air Force @ Colorado State -15.5 $1.82 WIN (13-58)

Maryland @ North Carolina State +3 $1.96 LOSE (41-21)

Colorado @ Utah +56 $1.94 LOSE (17-24)

Tulane +10.5 $1.95 @ Rice WIN (13-17)

Brigham Young -15.5 $1.94 @ Nevada LOSE (28-23)

Baylor @ TCU +13 $2.08 WIN (41-38)

Alabama @ Auburn +10.5 $1.94 WIN (28-34)

Georgia @ Georgia Tech +3 $1.95 LOSE (41-34)

Penn State @ Wisconsin +49.5 $1.94 WIN (31-24)

Northwestern @ Illinois +59.5 $1.94 WIN (37-34)

Louisiana Tech @ UTSA -52.5 $1.94 WIN (10-30)

UTEP +24 @ Middle Tennessee $1.87 LOSE (17-38)
Notre Dame +14.5 $2.00 @ Stanford WIN (20-27)
Texas A&M +5 $1.97 @ Missouri LOSE (21-28)

UCLA +3.5 $2.01 @ USC WIN (35-14)

San Diego State @ UNLV +55 $1.94 WIN (19-45)

EPL for December 1

Everton (5-6-1) v Stoke City (3-4-5), Goodison Park, Liverpool, England, Sunday, December 1, 2am

It might be a bit too much to ask for a repeat of last week’s pulsating 3-3 draw that Everton played out in one of the more memorable editions of the Merseyside derby. However, the momentum gathered in that cracking effort against Liverpool will serve the Toffees well against an anaemic Stoke City here. One of Everton’s standouts last week was Romelu Lukaku (pictured) – his two goals against Liverpool mean that he’s currently in possession of the best minutes-per-goal ratio (118) of any player with at least 20 Premier League goals – better than the likes of Thierry Henry, Ruud van Nistelrooy and Alan Shearer. Remember, he’s a loan player from Chelsea! Everton have only lost one Premier League game this season, fewer than anyone other side, and have only had more points at this stage once before. For all that, Roberto Martinez would like to see more wins and fewer draws.  With games away to Manchester United and Arsenal to start December, winning this would seem to be all the more important.

A Stoke win this time would seem the most unlikely outcome. They’ve only made victorious trips home from Everton twice in 22 visits since 1966, and have gathered only four points from six away games this season. The additional blow of losing central defender Robert Huth to injury is particularly telling given the threat of Lukaku. It could mean more responsibility on the shoulders of Ryan Shawcross – in last December’s 1-1 draw he scored an own goal, set up the Stoke equaliser and received a head-butt from Marouane Fellaini! The last seven meetings between these sides have produced just nine goals. The Potters have won two of 10 Premier League games against the Toffees. Stoke won 1-0 at Goodison Park on December 4, 2011, but that is their only victory there in the last 32 years. The Potters have scored eight times in their last four league games, having netted just four times in their opening eight matches. But 11 of the 14 Premier League goals they have conceded this season have come in away matches.

Confirmed bets

Everton WIN v Stoke City (two units @ $1.62) WIN (4-0)
West Ham v Fulham -2.5 (one unit @ $1.70) LOSE (3-0)
Newcastle United v West Brom BTS (one unit @ $1.65) WIN (2-1)

Leans

Aston Villa WIN $2.00 v Sunderland LOSE (0-0)

Cardiff City v Arsenal WIN $1.62 WIN (0-3)

Everton (to nil) v Stoke City $2.35 WIN (4-0)

Norwich City (win) v Crystal Palace $2.00 WIN (1-0)
West Ham v Fulham (draw/WH) $4.50 WIN (0-0/3-0)
Newcastle United v West Brom (double chance) $1.73 LOSE (2-1)

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