Daily tips for November 7

Note: Bets are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).

College Football (week 11) for November 7

MAC: Central Michigan Chippewas (3-5, 2-2 MAC) @ Ball State Cardinals (8-1, 5-0 MAC), Scheumann Stadium, Muncie, IN, Thursday, November 7, noon

Great conference races are currently in full swing coast-to-coast from the ACC to the Pac-12, but one of the best at the FBS level is in the Mid-American Conference where six of the 13 teams are still in the chase for the title game and at least an invite to one of three bowls with guaranteed MAC tie-ins. Indeed, the Ball State Cardinals face the Northern Illinois Huskies next week in a game that could very well decide who finishes atop the MAC’s West Division. But the Cardinals can’t afford to look past this week’s match-up against the Central Michigan Chippewas. Ball State has reeled off six consecutive wins, while Central Michigan is coming off a 38-17 loss to the Huskies. Ball State’s fortunes rest on the cannon arm of senior QB Keith Wenning (pictured), who is well on his way to locking up conference Player of the Year honors. Wenning leads the MAC in passing yards (2865) and touchdowns (28), and is coming off an impressive five-TD performance in a 42-24 victory over the Akron Zips back on October 26. The Chippewas will be in tough against the Cardinals’ high-powered offence, having surrendered a whopping 33.4 points per game.

For Chippewas fans seeking reason for optimism, Cooper Rush has provided plenty over the past two games. The freshman quarterback struggled following an impressive three-touchdown debut on September 7 against New Hampshire, but has returned to form with five TD passes against just two interceptions over his previous two games. Starting running back Saylor Lavallii has racked up 388 yards over his last three games. A trio of receivers have benefited the most from Wenning's outstanding senior campaign. Willie Snead leads the conference in receptions (65), receiving yards (1,057) and touchdowns (10) while teammate Jordan Williams ranks second in yardage (792) and scores (seven). Senior wideout Jamill Smith has also been solid so far this season, ranking seventh in the conference with 592 receiving yards and adding four TDs. Weather may be an issue here – temperatures will be in the high-50s with showers expected but should drop into the 40s throughout the evening. The Chippewas are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week while the Cardinals are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following an ATS win.

Confirmed bet

Central Michigan +21.5 @ Ball State (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (24-44)

Leans

Central Michigan 1H +12 @ Ball State $1.91 LOSE (3-31)

Central Michigan @ Ball State +58 $1.91 WIN (24-44)


Racing (Oaks Day) for November 7

Today’s highlights

Flemington R4 G3 $200,000 G.H. Mumm Stakes (1100m, SWP, 4yo+ mares)

Flemington R6 G1 $1 million Crown Oaks (2500m, set weights, 3yo fillies)

Hawkesbury R6 Listed $100,000 Lander Toyota Ladies Day Cup (1400m, handicap)

Horse racing: Flemington (Vic), Hawkesbury (NSW), Eagle Farm (Qld), Gawler (SA), Northam (WA), Pakenham (Vic), Albury (NSW), Warrnambool (Vic). Harness racing: Redcliffe (Qld), Devonport (Tas), Narrogin (WA), Penrith (NSW), Yarra Valley (Vic). Greyhound racing: Angle Park (SA), Maitland (NSW), Warragul (Vic), Albion Park (Qld), Warrnambool (Vic), Dapto (NSW), Hobart (Tas), Sandown Park (Vic), Mandurah (WA), Grafton (NSW), Shepparton (Vic).

Pure class is enough to get a handful of champions over the line in the VRC Oaks. Light Fingers, Surround, Rose Of Kingston, Research and Miss Finland are just some of the more celebrated winners of the 2500m-feature race traditionally held on the third day of the Melbourne Cup Carnival. But there’s no automatic choice for this year’s running of the $1m Crown Oaks – indeed, I believe the favourite may have been misjudged by the market after the running of the traditional lead-up race, the Wakeful Stakes, on Derby Day at Flemington. The tempo went through the roof at the home turn (more than 600m from the finish in the 2000m race), which clearly hampered horses that had been ridden quietly. But it played into the hands of #3 Kirramosa, with Tommy Berry coming from last to claim victory by 1.25 lengths. As a result, John Sargent’s charge has been installed favourite with a torrent of money coming for the Kiwi filly over the past 24 hours.

The other interesting runner that has attracted interest from punters is Guy Walter’s #8 Zanbagh. She’s unbeaten in her last two starts but the formlines from those wins don’t make great reading for this. Both races were at Ballarat, with the latter over 2000m on a heavy (8). I’m not overly keen on betting in this race as the top two in the market are well under the odds, but can make a case for #1 May’s Dream (pictured) as she’s still representing reasonable value.  Trained by Darren Weir and ridden by Caulfield Cup winning jockey Nick Hall, she was a solid runner-up to Kirramosa in the Wakeful but returned her best rating in finishing second to Guelph in the Thousand Guineas. She’s an ideal fifth-up here and has a bloodline that suggests 2500m won’t be a problem (remember, none of these horses have ever raced beyond 2000m). With a significant query over the favourite, May’s Dream is attractively priced at $6.

Confirmed bets

Flemington R6 #1 May’s Dream (E/W 1x2) LOSE (U/P)

Flemington R7 #4 Gallatin (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.30)

Flemington R8 #3 Snitzerland (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.80)

Eagle Farm R5 #3 Sister Souss (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.50)

Hawkesbury R8 #8 Bel Barrage (E/W 1x2) SCRATCHED 
Albury R6 #2 Living On A Prayer (E/W 1x3) 1st ($2.80/$1.40) 
Warrnambool R5 #1 Rock Flyer (win) ABANDONED

Leans

Flemington R1 #1 Marmelo (E/W 1x3) 1st ($3.10/$1.40)

Flemington R2 #12 Name The Day (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Flemington R3 #8 Melrose Place (E/W) 1st ($8.60/$2.40)

Flemington R4 #3 Dystopia (E/W 1x2) 1st ($4.30/$1.90)

Flemington R5 #14 Parishon (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Flemington R9 #6 Pro Tour (E/W 1x2) SCRATCHED

Hawkesbury R2 #3 Trent’s Quest (E/W 1x3) LOSE (U/P)

Hawkesbury R4 #2,6,7,8 Boxed Trifecta (6,2,7 $133.20)

Hawkesbury R5 #3 Magnetron (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Hawkesbury R6 #3 Pipette (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Warrnambool R1 #3 Shin Cracker (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.50)
Pakenham R7 #2 Buster McGee (E/W 1x2) LOSE (U/P)

NHL for November 7

Nashville Predators (7-5-2, 16pts) @ Colorado Avalanche (12-1-0, 19pts), Pepsi Center, Denver, CO, Thursday, November 7, 1.40pm

The Avalanche is an appropriate nickname for a Colorado side that has proved virtually unstoppable in the opening weeks of the 2013-14 NHL season. They’re expected to continue that trend with Semyon Varlamov (pictured) drawing the start against the Nashville Predators in their attempt at the best start in franchise history. Colorado coach Patrick Roy made a controversial move on Saturday in starting Varlamov two days after he was arrested for alleged domestic abuse. Allowed to travel with the team following one night in jail, the team’s No. 1 goaltender stopped 27 shots in a 3-2 win in Dallas. After Jean-Sebastien Giguere helped lead them to a 4-1 win over Montreal on Sunday, the Avalanche will turn back to Varlamov again as they try to improve to 13-1-0 for the first time. In their final season before moving to Colorado, the Quebec Nordiques went 12-1-0 to begin 1994-95. The Avalanche are also seeking their first seven-game win streak since an eight-game run from December 31, 2005 until January 17, 2006.

Colorado is also expected to have forward Jamie McGinn back in the line-up for its pursuit of a season-high fourth straight home win. Colorado also seeks a fourth consecutive home win against Nashville (7-5-2) after posting a 3-1 victory October 4. P.A. Parenteau scored two goals and Varlamov stopped 26 shots as the Avalanche won for the third time in four overall match-ups. Parenteau snapped a nine-game goal drought Saturday, and Nathan MacKinnon scored the tiebreaker with 11:59 remaining. The Predators avoided a season-high third consecutive loss Saturday by bouncing back quickly from a blown two-goal lead for a 4-3 win in Los Angeles. David Legwand’s second goal of the game with 3:56 left broke the tie. With Pekka Rinne out due to a hip injury, Nashville’s goaltenders have a combined seven games of experience – none against Colorado. Marek Mazanec, called up from the minors on Tuesday, has never appeared in an NHL game. Varlamov has allowed one goal in his last two games against Nashville. He outdueled Rinne in a 1-0 overtime victory in Denver on March 30.

Confirmed bets

Nashville Predators @ Colorado Avalanche WIN (two units @ $1.57) LOSE (6-4)

Winnipeg Jets TT -2.5 @ Chicago Blackhawks (two units @ $1.67) WIN (1-4)

Leans

Pittsburgh Penguins @ New York Rangers -5 $2.00 LOSE (1-5)

Winnipeg Jets @ Chicago Blackhawks -5.5 $1.87 WIN (1-4)

Nashville Predators @ Colorado Avalanche TT +2.5 $1.70 WIN (6-4)

Phoenix Coyotes @ Anaheim Ducks TT +2.5 $1.71 WIN (2-5)

NBA for November 7

Phoenix Suns (3-1, 1-1 away) @ San Antonio Spurs (3-1, 1-0 home), AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX, Thursday, November 7, 12.40pm

It’s been a tough start to the season for NBA punters as several of the leading contenders are yet to hit their straps, and there are always surprise packets that make a statement of intent over the opening weeks. That’s certainly the case with the Phoenix Suns. With Eric Bledsoe (pictured) providing a huge spark, the Suns are off to a strong start after finishing with the Western Conference's worst record last season. Here they'll have the chance to see how far they've come against the defending conference champs. The surprising Suns look for their first 4-1 start since their last playoff season four years ago as they visit the San Antonio Spurs. Following a 25-57 finish last season, Phoenix (3-1) was expected to be more in contention for the top spot in the 2014 draft lottery than the playoffs. The Suns, however, rallied from a 10-point second-half deficit to even their record on this three-game road swing with a 104-98 victory in New Orleans. Bledsoe, acquired from the Clippers in July, finished with 25 points on 10-of-12 shooting with five assists and three steals.

The fourth-year guard will try to lead the Suns to their second straight win over the Spurs (3-1), though it would be only their third in the past 12. It isn’t likely to come easy against a San Antonio team that scored 27 points off 23 Denver turnovers and limited the Nuggets to 16 fourth-quarter points en route to a 102-94 victory on Tuesday. Tony Parker finished with a game-high 24 points on 9-of-13 shooting and Tim Duncan had 17 with eight rebounds, eight assists and four blocks. Parker tallied 53 points on 22-of-37 shooting with 15 assists against the Suns last season. Duncan finished with 19 points and 11 boards in the most recent meeting, but the Suns snapped a six-game losing streak to San Antonio with a 105-101 overtime win on February 27. The Spurs could be without Matt Bonner after he sat out the second half Tuesday because of tightness in his left calf. Gerald Green could get another start for the Suns alongside Bledsoe with Goran Dragic doubtful because of an ankle injury.

Confirmed bets

Phoenix Suns +14 @ San Antonio Spurs (two units @ $1.91) WIN (96-99)

Golden State Warriors WIN @ Minnesota Timberwolves $1.83 WIN (106-93)

Toronto Raptors WIN @ Charlotte Bobcats (one unit @ $1.77) LOSE (90-92)

Leans

Chicago Bulls +2.5 $1.95 @ Indiana Pacers LOSE (80-97) 

Toronto Raptors @ Charlotte Bobcats -186.5 $1.91 WIN (90-92) 

Los Angeles Clippers @ Orlando Magic -208.5 $1.91 LOSE (90-98)

Washington Wizards WIN $1.70 @ Philadelphia 76ers WIN (116-102)

Utah Jazz @ Boston Celtics 1Q -1.5 $1.87 LOSE (26-23)

Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota T'wolves +206.5 $1.87
New Orleans Pelicans @ Memphis Grizzlies NO LEAN

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Milwaukee Bucks WIN $2.00 WIN (104-109)
Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder NO LEAN

Football (UCL matchday 4) for November 7

Group G: Zenit St Petersburg v FC Porto, Petrovsky Stadium, St Petersburg, Russia, Thursday, November 7, 4am

I’m not ashamed to say that the opening night of matchday four in the UEFA Champions League was pretty disastrous but there’s nothing like a kick in the arse to help re-focus! A former Porto favourite won’t need a dose of gamma radiation (or a kick in the arse) to get motivated for this match-up as Hulk (pictured) has vowed to show no mercy to his former club when Zenit St Petersburg look to take a big step towards qualification for the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League. Victory for Zenit over their Group G rivals would lift them four points clear of Porto in second place and make them heavy favourites to progress along with group leaders Atletico Madrid. The Brazilian striker, who scored 54 goals in 99 league games for Porto from 2008-12, said securing such a crucial advantage for his new club is the only thing on his mind. Zenit have stumbled slightly since their superb 1-0 win in the reverse fixture in Porto last month, being dumped out of the Russian Cup by lower-league Tyumen before drawing their home league clash with Amkar Perm on Saturday.

Zenit have received a boost on the eve of the game with the news that Axel Witsel will be able to line up against Porto after having an additional suspension for his red card in an earlier group game against FK Austria scrubbed by a UEFA appeal committee. Porto boss Paulo Fonseca saw his own side suffer a lapse in form at the weekend when they could only draw 1-1 at Belenenses, a result that cut their lead at the top of the Portuguese Primeira Liga to three points. Fonseca has recalled midfielders Mikel and Diego Reyes to his squad, which is set to take place in freezing temperatures in the Russian city. Hector Herrera is banned after his red card against Zenit last month. Porto were surprise losers at home to Zenit in the last round. “These are two sides of roughly the same standard. Zenit's players are very strong and skilled, but teamwork is even more important,” Fonseca said. I suspect goals will be premium here as there’s incentive for both sides to eke out a result.

Confirmed bets

Zenit St Petersburg (double chance) v FC Porto (three units @ $1.40) WIN (1-1)

Atletico Madrid (to nil) v Austria Wien (two units @ $1.55) WIN (4-0)

Borussia Dortmund v Arsenal – double chance (one unit @ $2.25) WIN (0-1)

Leans

Ajax (Siem De Jong to score) $2.50 LOSE v Celtic +1 $1.95 PUSH (1-0)

Atletico Madrid -2 v Austria Wien $1.83 WIN (4-0)

Barcelona v AC Milan +3.5 $2.15 WIN (3-1)

FC Basel WIN v Steaua Bucharest $1.62 LOSE (1-1)

Chelsea v Schalke 04 (correct score 3-0) $10.00 WIN (3-0)

Napoli v Olympique Marseille +2.5 $1.73 WIN (3-2)

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