Daily tips for November 15

Note: Bets are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).

A-League (round 6) for November 15

Melbourne Heart (0-2-3) v Sydney FC (2-0-3), AAMI Stadium, Melbourne, Friday, November 15, 7.30pm

The Melbourne Heart may be playing a nice style of football but in front of goal, they haven’t been able to hit a cow’s arse with a banjo. The Heart could sure use what Sydney managed last week – a win – to ease the pressure on a coach under growing scrutiny. John Aloisi’s men are winless this season and their last victory came in February – at home to the Sky Blues. Aloisi (pictured) is adamant, and correct, when he says his side is creating enough opportunities to win matches, but if they continue to miss the target their goalless run will continue. Malta international Michael Mifsud has threatened; as have David Williams, Golgol Mebrahtu and Iain Ramsay, but the Heart need goals and they need to test the opposition goalkeeper more often. The Heart are without a goal in their past three matches and have scored in just one game this campaign. Aloisi and the Heart desperately need a win or the pressure will only grow. I’m expecting the Heart to turn things around tonight.

Frank Farina was under similar pressure heading into his side's clash against the Melbourne Victory, but they came away with a hard-fought 3-2 win despite playing over an hour with 10 men. The question remains just whether the Sky Blues can reproduce a similar performance to the one they managed against arch-rivals the Victory. After left-back Marc Warren was sent off, Sydney scored a penalty through Alessandro Del Piero and then held on resolutely as the Victory were unable to break them down. The performance came as the pressure on coach Farina grew and they need to build on the emotionally and physically draining win. The Italian superstar celebrated his 39th birthday with a winning goal against the Victory. He was fouled 12 times during the clash and has drawn criticism for going to ground too easily. It was his clever body positioning which drew many of the fouls and he showed his class throughout. His ability to break games open in the attacking third makes him a scoring threat whenever he’s on the park.

Confirmed bet

Melbourne Heart DNB v Sydney FC (one unit @ $1.70) LOSE (0-2)

Leans

Melbourne Heart v Sydney FC -2.5 $1.90 WIN (0-2)

Melbourne Heart WIN v Sydney FC $2.37 LOSE (0-2)

Racing for November 15

Horse racing: Traralgon (Vic), Gundagai (NSW), Port Macquarie (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Geraldton (WA), Moonee Valley (Vic – night), Canterbury (NSW – night). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Albury (NSW), Bendigo (Vic), Newcastle (NSW), Port Pirie (SA), Gloucester Park (WA), Kalgoorlie (WA). Greyhound racing: Casino (NSW), Gawler (SA), Warragul (Vic), The Gardens (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Wagga (NSW), Geelong (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Mandurah (WA).

There may be bigger races, but none have a better name than the $55,000 XXXX Gold Snake Gully Cup, which highlights the start of a two-day carnival at Gundagai and a packed program around the country featuring metro meetings at Canterbury and Moonee Valley tonight. And following the trend of great names, I’ll be having a small play on #12 Daryl in the feature. The winner of six from 16 starts, the 5yo gelding will be ridden by experienced Canberra hoop Kevin Sweeney for Keith Dryden. Sweeney and Dryden are both former winners of the Snake Gully Cup, Sweeney with Supreme Butterfly (2000) and Dryden with Green Waters (1996 and 1999). The horse hasn’t been without problems this year but was a last start winner at Canberra over 1200m and is ready for the step up to 1400m.

Confirmed bets

Gundagai R7 #12 Daryl (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Gundagai R8 Oh So Adorable (win) 1st ($2.40)
Port Macquarie R3 #1 Charleah (win) LOSE (2nd)

Ipswich R7 #7 Fifth Chance (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.40) 

Moonee Valley R7 #6 Use The Lot (win) 1st ($2.60)

Leans

Traralgon R2 #4 Reign Again (E/W 1x4) 1st ($4.30/$1.60)

Traralgon R3 #5 Robbo The Bold (win) LOSE (4th)

Gundagai R3 #4 Merveille (win) LOSE (U/P)
Port Macquarie R7 #2 Mucho Caliente (E/W 1x3) 1st ($5.30/$2.00)

Port Macquarie R8 #6 Zizoom (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Ipswich R5 #4 Cliff’s Dream (win) SCRATCHED
Ipswich R6 #3 Vino Volo (win) LOSE (4th)

Canterbury R1 #1 Our Boy Nicholas (win) LOSE (4th)

Canterbury R5 #3 Tralfaz (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.70)

Moonee Valley R3 #2 Godspiel (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($2.30)

Moonee Valley R4 #9 Tucanchoo (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($1.50)

Harness racing tip: Bendigo R7 #4 Jazz King (win) 1st ($1.30)
Greyhound racing tip: Wentworth Park R6 #1 Zipping Summah (win) 1st ($1.50)

NFL (week 11) for November 15

Indianapolis Colts (6-3, 3-1 away) @ Tennessee Titans (4-5, 2-3 home), LP Field, Nashville, TN, Friday, November, 15, 12.30pm

38-8? To the Rams? Chuck Pagano is still processing the Colts' stunning four TD loss to St Louis in Indianapolis last Sunday but already faces a tricky visit to Tennessee for Thursday Night Football. Not that the Titans are in any better shape having handed Jacksonville its first win of the season last week while losing QB Jake locker to a foot injury. Indianapolis has beaten league heavyweights Seattle, San Francisco and Denver but its three losses have come against three clubs without a winning record. The Rams burned the Colts with three long touchdowns by rookie Tavon Austin, taking away Indianapolis' chances of trying to establish running back Trent Richardson (pictured), who has been a disaster since his acquisition from Cleveland, averaging 35.7 yards rushing over seven games. Although Andrew Luck threw for 353 yards, he was picked off three times – matching his total from the previous eight games. The Colts have won three straight meetings and swept the season series by a combined 10 points. I’m expecting a sterner effort from Indianapolis but that three-point line looks a bit scary.

Locker was on crutches following Sunday’s game amid fears that he suffered a Lisfranc injury, continuing a trend that has seen him unable to stay healthy in his first three seasons. Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 54.3 per cent of his passes with a touchdown and four interceptions while starting for the injured Locker in consecutive losses to Kansas City and Seattle last month. He was 22 of 33 for 264 yards with two TDs and no picks. He also threw for 264 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday but his fumble with just over two minutes to play stalled Tennessee’s comeback. The Titans did not commit a turnover in their first four games but have coughed up the ball 13 times in their last five. Running back Chris Johnson broke out of his season-long doldrums with 150 yards and two touchdowns before the bye week, but was limited to 30 yards on 12 carries by the Jaguars. Tennessee has dropped eight of nine to the Colts, who it will face twice in three weeks. The Titans’ lone win during that stretch came at home, 27-10 on October 30, 2011.

Suggested bet

Indianapolis Colts WIN @ Tennessee Titans (one unit @ $1.70) WIN (30-27)

Leans

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans +42.5 ($1.91) WIN (30-27)
Indianapolis Colts TT +22.5 $1.80 @ Tennessee Titans WIN (30-27)

College Football (week 12) for November 15

ACC: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-3, 5-2 ACC) @ 8 Clemson Tigers (8-1, 6-1 ACC), Memorial Stadium, Clemson, SC, Friday, November 15, 11.30am

Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins have made it look easy for Clemson, which has posted eye-popping numbers since losing last month. Looking to pick up where they left off before their bye, the No. 8 Tigers host Georgia Tech in this ACC showdown. Clemson has thrashed opposing defences since being held to 14 points in a blowout loss to Florida State on October 19, scoring 99 points in its past two games entering this contest in Death Valley (pictured) against Georgia Tech. The Tigers are 15th nationally in scoring as senior QB Boyd continues rewriting the school and ACC record books. Boyd’s four TDs in Clemson’s 59-10 rout of Virginia on November 2 gave him 116 career touchdowns, most in ACC history, and he needs three more passing touchdowns to snap the conference record. Sammy Watkins has benefited from Boyd’s strong season, needing just 18 yards to record his second career 1000-yard receiving season and is 112 yards from the school’s career receiving yardage mark. Defensive lineman Vic Beasley has 10 sacks in nine games, helping fuel a Clemson defence that has allowed 14 points or less six times.

Georgia Tech leads the Coastal Division with a 5-2 mark after a three-game winning streak, but must beat Clemson and avoid tying Miami and Virginia Tech atop the division standings to return to the conference title game. Georgia Tech’s Jemea Thomas has won two of the past three ACC Defensive Back of the Week honors. The Yellow Jackets have improved defensively during their past three games, holding opponents to 35 points and recording a season-high five sacks in a 21-10 victory over Pittsburgh on November 2. It is no secret the Yellow Jackets want to run the football, averaging 311.2 yards on the ground, and 170cm A-back Robert Godhigh has established himself as Georgia Tech’s go-to back. Godhigh is averaging 11.3 yards of total offense per play, and 55 per cent of his offensive touches result in first downs or touchdowns. The triple option attack that GT runs could provide some headaches for the Tigers and given their strength on the other side of the ball, I like the Yellow Jackets to cover here.

Confirmed bets

Georgia Tech +10.5 @ Clemson (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (31-55)

Marshall @ Tulsa +62.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (45-34)

Leans

Georgia Tech @ Clemson +61 $1.91 WIN (31-55)

Marshall -14 @ Tulsa $1.91 LOSE (45-34)

NHL for November 15

Anaheim Ducks (15-4-1, 31pts) @ Tampa Bay Lightning (13-5-0, 26pts), Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL, Friday, November 15, 11.40am

The story of this match-up is the key players who’ll miss rather those who’ll hit the ice in Tampa as the Lightning host Anaheim. The Lightning managed to get back into the win column in their first game without star forward Steven Stamkos but the Ducks couldn't extend their win streak during captain Ryan Getzlaf's absence. With Getzlaf (pictured) out again, the Ducks will attempt to spoil Tampa Bay’s brief return home Thursday night in an early showdown of conference leaders. Stamkos was taken off on a stretcher after fracturing his right tibia in gruesome circumstances during the 3-0 defeat in Boston on Monday and underwent surgery to stabilise the injury the next day, sidelining him indefinitely. His teammates were in Montreal on Wednesday night and pulled out a 2-1 shootout win without one of the league’s top scorers. The Atlantic Division-leading Lightning (13-5-0), whose 26 points lead the Eastern Conference, now face the team that has the most in the NHL in their only home game until November 25. The Ducks (15-4-1), though, are coming off the end to a five-game win streak.

Anaheim also suffered its first regulation loss in 10 games with Wednesday’s 3-2 defeat in Florida, the opener to a four-game trip. Getzlaf missed his second straight contest because of an upper-body injury and did not skate with his team at yesterday’s practice in Tampa. With Getzlaf out, the Ducks couldn't hold on to an early 2-0 lead against the Panthers, and goaltender Frederik Andersen suffered his first loss in seven NHL appearances. The Ducks are facing the Lightning for the first time since their three-game series win streak was snapped with a 3-2 loss in Tampa Bay on February 21, 2012. Stamkos scored the first two goals in that game and assisted on Teddy Purcell’s game-winner. With Getzlaf out, Andrew Cogliano will try to help Anaheim by extending a career-best, four-game goal-scoring streak. Cogliano has six goals in 20 games this season. Cogliano's scoring binge has done little to provide the Ducks with a more consistent power play. Anaheim has converted 8 of its 71 chances (11.3 per cent) this season and gone 0-5 in the last two games.

Confirmed bets

Anaheim Ducks @ Tampa Bay Lightning -5.5 (one unit @ $1.72) LOSE (1-5)

Grand Salami -38.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE

Colorado Avalanche @ St Louis Blues +5 $1.83 WIN (3-7)
Columbus Blue Jackets @ Boston Bruins WIN NT (one unit @ $1.77) WIN (2-3)

Leans

Los Angeles Kings @ New York Islanders WIN $2.00 LOSE (3-2)

Anaheim Ducks @ Tampa Bay Lightning WIN $1.91 WIN (1-5)

Phoenix Coyotes @ Chicago Blackhawks +5.5 $1.91 WIN (4-5)

Dallas Stars WIN $1.91 @ Calgary Flames WIN (7-3)

San Jose Sharks @ Vancouver Canucks WIN $1.91 LOSE (2-1)

NBA for November 15

Oklahoma City Thunder (5-2, 2-2 away) @ Golden State Warriors (5-3, 3-0 home), ORACLE Arena, Oakland, CA, Friday, November 15, 2.40pm

There are just two games scheduled in the NBA today but both are slippery little suckers. I’m posting just one bet based on the fact that the Golden State Warriors have trailed for just 23 seconds in three home games this season. Those wins have come by an average of 20.0 points on 54.7-percent shooting even though similar numbers will be a tough to attain against the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Western Conference’s best road team in 2012-13. The Warriors (5-3) are coming off their best shooting night of the season in a 113-95 win over Detroit that snapped a two-game skid. Golden State shot 60.0 per cent and hit 8 of 16 from beyond the arc. It was the team’s best shooting performance in the regular season since March 25, 2011, when they hit 61.4 per cent in a 138-100 win over Toronto. Stephen Curry (pictured) led the way with 25 points on 7-for-10 shooting before resting for the entire fourth quarter. The solid display from the field combined with a 43-34 rebounding advantage to overshadow 23 turnovers (their 20.3 per game is the worst average in the league).

A similar shooting performance might be necessary against the Thunder, who have won seven of eight against the Warriors. They took three of four meetings last season and outscored Golden State by an average of 20.0 points in the last two, shooting 50.6 per cent. The Thunder (5-2) lost 111-103 on Wednesday at the Los Angeles Clippers, despite getting 33 points and 10 assists from Kevin Durant. It was the Thunder’s first loss this season with Russell Westbrook on the floor and snapped a four-game winning streak. They’re playing back-to-back games for the first time this season. Though they’re 4-1 since Westbrook returned, he still hasn't found his shot. He’s gone 16 of 53 (30.2 per cent) in his last three games and is shooting 34.8 per cent overall. The Thunder were out-rebounded 50-35, including 18-8 on the offensive glass. It was the first time this season they haven’t reached double digits in offensive boards, while their 27 defensive rebounds were also a season low. Westbrook averaged 20.0 points in four games against the Warriors last season. The teams last met April 11 in the Thunder’s 116-97 win at Golden State. 

Confirmed bet

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Golden State Warriors WIN (two units @ $1.50) WIN (115-116)

Leans

Houston Rockets WIN $1.83 WIN @ New York Knicks -206 $1.91 LOSE (109-106)

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Golden State Warriors +207 $1.91 WIN (115-116)

Another week on the punting Callander

Welcome to this regular feature of the Last At Cannington blog highlighting some of the stories and results that have caught my punting eye over the past seven days. By Sean Callander.

The Victoria Racing Club was delivered a timely kick in the arse as they reflected on another Melbourne Cup Carnival earlier this week with Racing NSW’s announcement of The Championships. The revamped Randwick portion of the Autumn Carnival will comprise 10 ‘Championship’ races across consecutive Saturdays (April 12-19). More than $18 million in prizemoney will be awarded over the two headline days making The Championships one of the richest racing carnivals in the world. On the first Saturday, The Star Doncaster Mile (1600m) will be worth $3 million, while the Darley TJ Smith Stakes (1200m) is now $2.5 million and the BMW Australian Derby (2400m) offers $2 million in prizemoney.

The Group One Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) becomes a $4 million race on the second day with three $1 million and two $500,000 Championship races. That will make the Doncaster the world’s richest 1600m race ($3 million); the TJ Smith the world’s richest open 1200m race ($2.5 million); while the Queen Elizabeth Stakes becomes the world’s richest 2000m race on turf with the potential to lure horses of which Racing Victoria could only dream for the Cox Plate. Importantly, Racing NSW has an addition war chest to help lure the best of the best.

As Racing NSW's chief executive Peter V'Landys said: “We don't want to disadvantage the Australian horses but at the same time if you want a world class event you want the world's best horses." The likes of 2012 American horse of the year and dual Breeders' Cup Mile winner Wise Dan and European superstar Treve (winner of the Arc de Triomphe) are said to be on the wish list. Racing NSW administrators yesterday played down the suggestion that this was a direct attack on Melbourne racing and its world-class spring carnival. I doubt they’re feeling the same way about it south of the border.

• Flemington was again packed across the four days of the Melbourne Cup Carnival but it’s clear that the attendance levels of a decade ago may never be reached again. From peaks of 100,000, Oaks Day now barely attracts 70,000 while Stakes Day suffered from inclement weather. The Melbourne Cup Carnival provides a conundrum for the racing industry. Local media coverage of racing throughout October and the first week of November surpasses coverage of other major global racing carnivals by a staggering amount.

But the Seven Network’s coverage is a mish-mash of celebrity, fashion and racing while the racing industry’s own station TVN is reduced to a bit player with no mounting yard footage and, bizarrely, no live footage (only sound) of the four features races. There are always great stories among the winning horses, jockeys and trainers, and 2013 was no exception. The fairytale win of Polanski in the Derby, Jim Cassidy’s 100th Group 1-winning ride, Gai Waterhouse’s first Melbourne Cup win with the recently reinstalled Damien Oliver on board Fiorente after serving a 10-month suspension and the stunning victory of Buffering (pictured) in the VRC Spring Classic after spending years in the shadow of Black Caviar were just some of the highlights.

But the program across the four days is in desperate need of overhaul. The Cup Day and Oaks Day programs don’t measure up against other feature days across the spring, but the most glaring issues are on Derby Day. Firstly, it’s no longer “Australia’s greatest day of racing”, and hasn’t been for years. The Mackinnon Stakes looms like a T-Rex over Derby Day, as it can no longer be taken seriously as a lead-in race to the Melbourne Cup. Along with other adjustments, it probably belongs on the final day. However, I’m bullish that the VRC will rise to the challenge set by the ATC and Racing NSW and deliver us two world-class racing carnivals that push each other to greater heights.

• Imagine the furore if a runner started lame in the Melbourne Cup, with the full knowledge of the owners and trainer. Racing officials would have little sympathy and those in the know could expect significant penalties. Weeks after the 2013 AFL Grand Final, it was revealed this week that Fremantle forward Michael Walters (pictured below) played in the season finale with a strained posterior cruciate ligament in his left knee. Walters was heavily restricted in his sprinting and ability to turn tightly around the Dockers goalmouth throughout the finals series.

It was also revealed that Michael Johnson and Luke McPharlin would not have played if the big occasion had not been a Grand Final. Johnson and McPharlin both required painkillers to get through light training loads in the days leading into the Grand Final. AFL clubs have no requirement to reveal the physical condition of their players, and coaches lie about injuries on a weekly basis throughout the season. This wouldn’t normally be a problem, except that millions of dollars are bet on AFL games throughout the season. The AFL is also happy to accept product fees from corporate bookmakers, in addition to deciding which markets bookies are allowed to frame.

AFL CEO Andrew ‘Mr Belding’ Demetriou (himself a keen punter along side offsider Gillon ‘Screech’ McLachlan) has always responded hypocritically to this conflict of interest: “Punters beware”. Of course, elite sports teams hide the true fitness of players on a daily basis, but that doesn’t make it right when punters have big money on board.  This practise also provides a direct route to match-fixing (how many tennis players have used the old sore back trick over the years), with those “in the know” clearly able to use their inside information to benefit financially. Of course, match-fixing/tanking doesn’t happen in the AFL. The Melbourne Football Club was fined $500,000 for not doing it.

Final word: Weather affects sporting events in many ways, but we were served up a treat by the books last weekend in the opening round of the Canadian Football League playoffs. With the game total line set at 51, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and Montreal Alouettes (and more than 13,000 brave souls at Alumni Stadium) battled a 45-knot gale that blew straight down the field. Oh yeh, the wind chill made it feel like -1°C. The half-time score was just 2-0, and we covered handily as the Ti-Cats won the East Division semi-final 19-16.


• Prices with thanks to Centrebet (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.