Daily tips for November 23

Note: Bets are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).


A-League (round 7) for November 23

Melbourne Victory (2-2-2) v Adelaide United (1-2-3), Etihad Stadium, Melbourne, Saturday, November 23, 7.45pm

The latest chapter in the A-League’s original rivalry will be written at Etihad Stadium tonight where Melbourne Victory coach Kevin Muscat will be hoping a return home can halt his team’s poor run when they host Adelaide United. After consecutive losses in Sydney, Victory will be back in Melbourne in Round 7 and hoping to continue their unbeaten form on their own turf. The Big V will have recent history against them, however, as they have only overcome Adelaide once in their past nine meetings. Three games into Muscat's tenure with Victory and the issues that held the Big V back from being true championship contenders under Ange Postecoglou remain unresolved. Melbourne have produced some top football in their past three matches and arguably gave league leaders Western Sydney their biggest scare of the season last week. But Victory still struggle to break down packed defences and seem unable to alter the momentum of a match when the opposition gets on top.

The Reds – so long the victim against Victory, having lost 10 matches in a row from September 2008 to October 2010 – have turned that around in the past couple of years, although they enter this week’s encounter in poor form and coming off a trip to Perth where the played in 35C heat. Josep Gombau’s men have not won since the opening round of the season but could leapfrog Victory on the ladder with a win at Etihad Stadium. The Reds need to tighten up in defence, having not kept a clean sheet this season, despite having arguably the best goalkeeper in the competition in captain Eugene Galekovic. The Reds have some solid inclusions with Nigel Boogaard back from suspension, Bruce Djite returning from injury and Michael Zullo returning from international duty to all provide some fresh legs. In 31 meetings, these two teams in 31 matches have never had a scoreless game, and in 15 matches in Melbourne, they average dead on three goals per game.

Confirmed bet

Melbourne Victory v Adelaide United +2.5 (one unit @ $1.77) WIN (3-0)

Leans

Melbourne Victory WIN $1.76 v Adelaide United WIN (3-0)

Sydney FC WIN $1.69 v Wellington Phoenix WIN (2-1)

Perth Glory v Central Coast Mariners BTS $1.77 WIN (1-2)

College Football (week 13) for November 23

Navy Midshipmen (6-4) @ San Jose State Spartans (5-5, MW 4-3), Spartan Stadium, San Jose, CA, Saturday, November 22, 1.30pm

With next week’s season finale against the undefeated Fresno State Bulldogs, now is the time for San Jose State to snatch the victory needed to ensure its bowl eligibility. But the quick-strike offensive attack the Spartans used to build a four-game winning streak earlier this season has slipped off track and they'll need to find a solution as they host the Navy Midshipmen. San Jose State looked outmatched in a 38-16 loss to the Nevada Wolf Pack last time out. The Spartans had little trouble moving the ball through the air against the Wolf Pack, as QB David Fales (pictured) racked up 326 yards and a score. But the rushing game managed just 58 total yards on the ground as San Jose State fell to 0-2 after stringing together four consecutive victories. The Spartans averaged 39 PPG during its mid-season winning streak, thanks in large part to Fales. The senior QB has a whopping 3202 passing yards on the season – second to Fresno State's Derek Carr atop the Mountain West.

The name on the front of the jersey may be synonymous with the sea, but the Midshipmen are one of the most dangerous teams in the country when it comes to ground-and-pound. Navy ranks sixth in the FBS at 308.9 rushing yards per contest, led by sophomore quarterback Keenan Reynolds (884 rushing yards, 19 TDs). He has had at least one passing and rushing touchdown in five consecutive games, and 26 combined scores on the season. The Midshipmen used their nationally renowned rush attack to subdue South Alabama 42-14 and Navy had no such trouble with its ball-carrying juggernaut against the Jaguars, finishing with 351 rushing yards and four touchdowns in the one-sided win. The Midshipmen are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games against Mountain West opponents. The ‘under’ is 14-3 in Navy's last 17 games on fieldturf while the ‘over is 4-0 in San Jose State's last four home games against teams with losing road records.

Confirmed bet

Navy Midshipmen @ San Jose State Spartans WIN (one unit @ $1.87) LOSE (58-52)

Lean

Navy Midshipmen @ San Jose State Spartans +59.5 $1.91 WIN (58-52)

Racing for November 23

Today’s highlights

Ascot R6 G2 $400,000 Sky Racing WA Guineas (1600m, set weights, 3yos)

Ascot R7 G1 $500,000 Crown Perth Winterbottom Stakes (1200m, WFA, 3yo+)

Ascot R8 G1 $1 million Carlton Draught Railway Stakes (1600m, quality, 3yo+)

Horse racing: Moonee Valley (Vic), Randwick (NSW), Eagle Farm (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Ascot (WA), Mornington (Vic), Newcastle (NSW), Gold Coast (Qld), Ballina (NSW), Armidale (NSW), Dalby (Qld), Darwin (NT), Geraldton (WA). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Bunbury (WA), Geelong (Vic), Globe Derby (SA), Menangle (NSW), Temora (NSW). Greyhound racing: Wentworth Park (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), The Gardens (NSW), Cannington (WA), Richmond (NSW), Shepparton (Vic), The Meadows (Vic).

The racing spotlight turns to the west today for Carlton Draught Super Saturday and the running of the G1 Railway Stakes at Ascot as part of the 2013-14 Festival of Perth Racing. But the $1 million mile race has been slightly overshadowed by the G2 WFA Winterbottom Stakes over 1200 metres where Group 1 winning trainer Rob Heathcote is ready for the battle that faces him and his superstar #1 Buffering when they take on #4 Barakey, who’s yet to be defeated in Western Australia amongst other challengers. Having broken his G1 duck in impressive fashion during the Melbourne Spring Carnival with wins in the Manikato Stakes and the VRC Spring Classic (both at better than $8). We won’t get anything like that price today, but I fully expect the Queensland sprint star to add another black-type victory here. The WFA conditions mean he’s not giving away anything to his main rivals, and anything better than $2.00 is worth betting.

Confirmed bets

Moonee Valley R3 #5 Thorn Star (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Moonee Valley R7 #4 Such Hope (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Moonee Valley R8 #3 Dashitude (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Randwick R3 #3 Instrumentalist (E/W 1x3) 1st ($4.30/$1.90)

Randwick R8 #5 Field Marshall (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Eagle Farm R1 #11 Sleep Tight (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Morphettville R6 #8 Hirad (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Mornington R2 #11 Strazero (E/W) 1st ($6.40/$2.20)

Ascot R2 #11 The Corporation (E/W) 3rd ($2.70)

Ascot R5 #2 Rouge Dior (E/W) 1st ($35.60/$7.90)
Ascot R7 #1 Buffering (win) 1st ($2.10)

Leans

Moonee Valley R1 #1 Romancingthestone (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Moonee Valley R2 #1 Thubian (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($2.50)

Moonee Valley R4 #9 Xavi (win) LOSE (U/P)

Moonee Valley R6 #3 Electric Fusion (E/W) 2nd ($3.00)

Randwick R1 #6 Occitan (win) 1st ($3.20)

Randwick R4 #1 Calming Influence (win) LOSE (3rd)

Randwick R5 #7 Terravista (win) 1st ($1.70)

Eagle Farm R2 #2 Volkhere (E/W) 2nd ($2.40)

Eagle Farm R7 #7 Audacious Spirit (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Eagle Farm R8 #13 Stradon (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($2.00)

Morphettville R1 #2 Natural Disaster (win) LOSE (U/P)

Morphettville R3 #9 Hail Maher (E/W 1x2) LOSE (4th)

Morphettville R5 #1 Streetcar Valour (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($2.10)

Mornington R4 #3 Odd Socks (E/W 1x2) 1st ($4.60/$1.80)

Ascot R3 #1 Petrol Power (E/W 1x3) 1st ($3.20/$1.50)

Ascot R6 #9 Vitello (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Ascot R8 #11 Longport (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

NBA for November 23

Brooklyn Nets (3-8, 1-6 away) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (7-6, 5-2 home), Target Center, Minneapolis, MN, Saturday, November 23, 12.10pm

There’s a big card of 11 games scheduled in the NBA today and it’s safe to say the best of them won’t be played in Minneapolis where the Timberwolves will host the woeful Nets. Brooklyn (3-8) made several major moves in the off-season but has so far failed to live up to expectations. The Nets have allowed an average of 103.7 points in losing six of seven, and injuries aren't helping. Deron Williams landed on an opponent’s foot and re-injured his left ankle in the second quarter of Wednesday’s 95-91 loss at Charlotte. The injury forced him to miss the two previous games. Andrei Kirilenko is still dealing with back spasms that has kept him out for seven games now and Jason Terry is also being held out as a precaution because of a bruised left knee. Center Brook Lopez will miss his fourth straight game with a sore ankle. He leads the Nets with 20.5 points per game. Brooklyn is averaging 34.0 points in the paint over the last three games after putting up 46.4 during the five previous contests with Lopez in the line-up.

The Nets ended an eight-game slide in Minnesota with a 91-83 win on January 23, but they didn’t have to contend with forward Kevin Love, who missed both meetings last season with injuries. This time, Brooklyn could benefit from the Timberwolves (7-6) being in a stretch of playing five games in seven days. Minnesota lost 104-100 at Washington on Tuesday and shot 37.8 per cent from the floor, including 5 of 22 from 3-point range, in a 102-98 home defeat to the Los Angeles Clippers the next night. Love is looking to bounce back after he shot 2 of 14 and finished with 10 points. Still, he’s among the league leaders with 25.4 points and 13.3 rebounds per game. Kevin Martin (pictured) isn’t far behind with an average of 23.6 points. He scored 28 and added a season-high 10 boards Wednesday. Martin, though, has tallied 23 points over his last three meetings with the Nets. On paper, the Wolves look morals here but I suspect that they’ll do what they need to get the win and no much more, especially with a trip to Houston ahead tomorrow.

Confirmed bets

Brooklyn Nets @ Minnesota Timberwolves -202 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (81-111)

San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies WIN (one unit @ $2.00) LOSE (102-86)

Atlanta Hawks @ Detroit Pistons -197 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (96-89)

Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics TT -88.5 (one unit @ $1.87) WIN (97-82)

Leans

Phoenix Suns +3 $1.91 @ Charlotte Bobcats WIN (98-91)

Milwaukee Bucks @ Philadelphia 76ers +199.5 WIN (107-115)

Washington Wizards +5 $1.91 @ Toronto Raptors LOSE (88-96)

Atlanta Hawks +4.5 @ Detroit Pistons WIN (96-89)

San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies -186 $1.91 LOSE (102-86)

Cleveland Cavaliers @ New Orleans Pelicans -6.5 LOSE (100-104)

Utah Jazz +11.5 $1.91 @ Dallas Mavericks WIN (93-103)

Chicago Bulls +3.5 $1.95 @ Portland Trail Blazers WIN (95-98)

Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers +6 $1.91 WIN (95-102)

NHL for November 23

Tampa Bay Lightning (14-8-0, 28pts) @ Anaheim Ducks (15-6-3, 33pts), Honda Center, Anaheim, CA, Saturday, November 23, 2.10pm

Despite their respective impressive records, both the Tampa Bay Lightning and Anaheim Ducks have headaches to address ahead of this meeting in Southern California today. Defensive issues in the third period are a major problem for the Anaheim Ducks. Perhaps drawing some inspiration from one of the franchise’s greatest defensemen can help. On a night when they’ll honour Scott Niedermayer (pictured), the Ducks will try to solve their late-game issues and snap their longest losing streak in two years against the Lightning. Anaheim (15-6-3) has lost five games in a row for the first time since dropping seven straight from November 13-27, 2011. The Ducks have been outscored 6-1 in the third period during the current slide, and that includes giving up a goal in a 5-1 loss at Tampa Bay on November 14. Those issues persisted before a bizarre sequence capped Wednesday's 4-3 overtime loss to New Jersey. Anaheim allowed the tying goal with 1:01 left in regulation before Ben Lovejoy’s attempted clearance in front of the net hit Corey Perry, and cannoned past Jonas Hiller for the decisive score.

As coach Bruce Boudreau’s team aims to get back in the win column, the Ducks will honour Niedermayer for his induction into the Hockey Hall of Fame. Niedermayer played for the Ducks from 2005-10 and won the Conn Smythe Award while captaining them to the 2007 Stanley Cup. Hiller hasn’t been particularly sharp his last two starts, allowing nine goals on 45 shots. Ryan Getzlaf is doing his part in the offensive end, collecting six goals with three assists during a five-game point streak. Like the Ducks, Tampa Bay (14-8-0) has found itself struggling defensively. The Lightning have been outscored 16-6 while losing the first three of this four-game road trip after winning six of their previous seven. The slide continued with Thursday’s 5-1 defeat at San Jose. Part of Tampa Bay’s problems stem from losing top scorer Steven Stamkos indefinitely to a broken leg. The team had won its first two games without him before embarking on this jaunt. Tyler Johnson picking up some of the scoring slack, getting a point in each of the last four games. The center’s streak started with an assist against the Ducks, and he kept it going with his fifth goal of the season on Thursday.

Confirmed bets

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Anaheim Ducks WIN (one unit @ $1.90) WIN (0-1)
Columbus Blue Jackets @ Vancouver Canucks -5 (one unit @ $1.83) LOSE (2-6)

Leans

New York Islanders @ Pittsburgh Penguins +5.5 $1.83 WIN (3-4)

Montreal Canadiens @ Washington Capitals WIN $1.87 LOSE (3-2)

Florida Panthers WIN $2.20 LOSE @ Calgary Flames +5.5 $1.91 WIN (3-4)

Columbus Blue Jackets +1.5 $1.60 @ Vancouver Canucks LOSE (2-6)

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Anaheim Ducks -5.5 $1.83 WIN (0-1)

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