Daily tips for November 27

Note: Bets are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).


Racing for November 27

Horse racing: Bendigo (Vic), Canterbury (NSW), Eagle Farm (Qld), Gawler (SA), Ascot (WA), Launceston (Tas – night). Harness racing: Bathurst (NSW), Mildura (Vic), Redcliffe (Qld). Greyhound racing: Albion Park (Qld), Bendigo (Vic), Richmond (NSW), Angle Park (SA), Bulli (NSW), The Meadows (Vic), Cranbourne (Vic), Cannington (WA), Ballarat (Vic), The Gardens (NSW), Rockhampton (Qld).

Yesterday’s meeting at Bairnsdale was abandoned due to heavy rain in the preceding 48 hours. Today at Bendigo, they’ll be racing on a rapidly improving dead (4) in mid-30s heat. Gotta love Victoria! The track will certainly have dried out by the time of race 8, the Christmas/Family Day 22Dec Showcase F&M 0-64 Handicap over 1600 metres. #3 Galway Warrior looks a clear best on the card, with Damien Oliver (pictured) taking the ride for Mornington trainer Jerome Hunter and the Graebar Park team. The lightly raced 4yo mare broke her maiden after four starts with victory at Bendigo on November 14 over 1400m by almost five lengths! That form is good enough for this bunch, and I’m happy to take anything better than $2.50 for the win.

Confirmed bets

Bendigo R7 #14 Chilli Beach (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($1.80)
Bendigo R8 #3 Galway Warrior (win) LOSE (4th)

Canterbury R6 #6 Megathink (E/W 1x4) 1st ($3.00/$1.40)

Ascot R5 #9 Storienda (win)

Leans

Bendigo R5 #3 To Infinity (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Bendigo R6 #3 Oltre Finito (win) LOSE (2nd)

Canterbury R2 #8 Limitation (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.50)
Eagle Farm R7 #12 Travieso (E/W) 1st ($4.60/$1.70)

Eagle Farm R8 #4 Octane Flyer (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.60)

Gawler R4 #5 Knightline (win) LOSE (2nd)

Gawler R6 #2 Lurch (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.40)

Ascot R4 #4 Antelpen (E/W)


College Football (week 14) for November 27

MAC: Western Michigan Broncos (1-10, 1-6 MAC) @ Northern Illinois Huskies (11-0, 7-0 MAC), Huskie Stadium, DeKalb, IL, Wednesday, November 27, 11am

Talk about incentive – Northern Illinois remains in contention for a second straight BCS appearance but needs to leapfrog Fresno State in the standings to earn a berth, making a big victory over Western Michigan here essential. They’ve have already clinched a spot in the Mid-American Conference title game for a fourth straight year. The Huskies rank seventh nationally in scoring (43.7 points) behind the stellar play of dual-threat quarterback Jordan Lynch. Garnering Heisman Trophy consideration for a second straight season, Lynch improved to 23-2 as a starter after throwing for 202 yards and running for 161 with three second-half touchdowns during Wednesday’s 35-17 win at Toledo. He has thrown 21 touchdown passes while rushing for an additional 17. Junior Cameron Stingily (pictured below) ran for 146 yards at Toledo, and needs 42 to join Lynch as the first two players in NIU history to rush for 1000 yards in the same season. The Huskies, whose last home loss came against Idaho in 2009 and last league defeat to Central Michigan in 2011, have outscored Western Michigan 165-80 during a four-game series-winning streak.

Things have gone much differently for Western Michigan, which hopes to play spoiler in its season finale for PJ Fleck, the youngest head coach in the FBS and former Huskie. The Broncos have just one win on the season, a 31-30 decision at one-win Massachusetts. Other than that, it has been a dismal season as Western Michigan has been outscored by an average of more than three touchdowns and ranks tied for 108th in the nation in rushing (118.3 yards). The Broncos haven’t beaten the Huskies since opening the 2008 MAC season with a 29-26 victory. Wide receiver Corey Davis has been a bright spot in an otherwise disappointing season as he is 87 yards away from becoming the fourth wide receiver in MAC history to reach 1000 yards receiving in their rookie season. Dareyon Chance had a 29-yard scoring run in the Tigers’ last loss, a 27-22 setback against Central Michigan. The Broncos team rank near the bottom of the MAC allowing 35.6 points per contest. NIU, meanwhile, is seventh in the FBS averaging 43.7 per game.

Confirmed bet

Western Michigan Broncos @ Northern Illinois Huskies -35 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (14-33)

Lean

Western Michigan Broncos @ Northern Illinois Huskies -63 $1.94 WIN (14-33)

NBA for November 27

Golden State Warriors (8-6, 3-4 away) @ New Orleans Pelicans (6-7, 5-2 home), New Orleans Arena, New Orleans, LA, Wednesday, November 27, 12.10pm

It’s a relatively quiet day with just four NBA games scheduled, but there’s enough to keep bettors on their toes with no better example than the Warriors’ visit to New Orleans. Golden State (8-6) has followed a four-game winning streak with three consecutive defeats, falling 113-101 to red-hot Portland on Saturday. Klay Thompson scored 30 points on 10-of-13 shooting before fouling out and Stephen Curry added 22 and 11 assists. Bouncing back, though, could prove difficult without two key pieces as Andrew Bogut will join Andre Iguodala on the sidelines as the Warriors open a four-game road trip against the Pelicans. The Warriors, who led 70-56 with 7:53 left the third quarter, saw things start to fall apart minutes later after Bogut got into a shoving match with Trail Blazers center Joel Freeland. Bogut received a one-game suspension for his role in the scuffle. The former No. 1 overall pick is tied with David Lee for the team lead with 9.4 rebounds per contest. Jermaine O’Neal is also uncertain to be available after missing the last four games with a bruised knee.

The Warriors play seven of their next eight on the road, where they’ve averaged 89.3 points during a 1/3 stretch. However, they averaged 102.5 in taking all four match-ups against New Orleans (6-7) last season. The Pelicans had won three straight (all at home) before falling 112-93 at San Antonio on Monday. Leading scorer Anthony Davis was held to a season-low 10 points on 3-of-8 shooting as New Orleans fell behind by as many as 32. New Orleans was limited to 38.1 per cent shooting, going a season-worst 2 of 15 (13.3 per cent) from 3-point range. The Pelicans have outscored foes by an average of 14.7 points during a four-game home winning streak. New Orleans hasn’t won five straight on its own court since a six-game run January 12-February 1, 2011. Eric Gordon, who has scored 32 points on 31.6 per cent shooting in his last three games, is averaging 24.0 points in his last five match-ups against Golden State. The Warriors’ injury list combined with the Pelican’s home form should be enough for the home side here.

Confirmed bets

Golden State Warriors @ New Orleans Pelicans +3 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (102-101)

Los Angeles Lakers @ Washington Wizards -197.5  (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (111-116)

Leans

Brooklyn Nets @ Toronto Raptors -6.5 $1.91 LOSE (102-100)

Los Angeles Lakers @ Washington Wizards -4.5 $1.81 WIN (111-116)

Orlando Magic @ Atlanta Hawks +198.5 $1.91 WIN (109-92)

Golden State Warriors @ New Orleans Pelicans +207.5 $1.91 LOSE (102-101)

NHL for November 27

Anaheim Ducks (17-6-4, 37pts) @ Dallas Stars (11-9-24, 24pts), American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX, Wednesday, November 27, 12.10pm

There’s just one game on the slate in the NHL today featuring Pacific Division leaders Anaheim and a Dallas side chasing it’s first home win in more than a month. The Ducks look to have bounced back from their roughest stretch of the season. They’re winners of two in a row while the Stars will try to avoid a season-high third straight defeat. Anaheim (17-6-3) followed an 8-0-1 stretch with an 0-3-2 slide that ended with Friday’s 1-0 overtime victory over Tampa Bay. One night later, the Ducks snapped a four-game road skid with a 4-2 victory over Phoenix. Despite various injuries and illnesses this season, the Ducks are among the top teams in the NHL after finishing with the third-most points in the league during the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season. Dustin Penner scored twice as Anaheim broke open a 1-1 game Saturday with three straight second-period goals. Penner has scored half of his six goals in the last five games. The Ducks also have clamped down defensively in the last two games after allowing 18 goals in the previous five contests. Anaheim killed all 10 penalties against the Lightning and Coyotes.

Anaheim has allowed three goals in each of the last two meetings with Dallas (11-9-2), but overcame to a 3-1 first-period deficit to beat the Stars for the fourth time in five games, 6-3 at home on October 20. Perry had two goals and an assist and Ryan Getzlaf added one with three assists. Getzlaf has seven goals and four assists during a seven-game point streak. Held to five goals in the last three games, the Stars look to get back on track after their six-game road-winning streak ended with a 6-1 loss to St Louis on Saturday. Defenseman Brenden Dillon had the goal for Dallas, which has been outscored 9-3 in the last two games despite recording 78 shots. The Stars rank near the bottom of the league on the power play at 11.5 per cent and 1 for 29 at home after defenseman Stephane Robidas scored in a 3-2 loss to the Rangers on Thursday. Tyler Seguin has not scored in three games since recording four goals in a 7-3 win at Calgary on November 14. Can’t believe we’re getting better than a pick’em price for the Ducks!

Confirmed bet

Anaheim Ducks WIN @ Dallas Stars (one unit @ $2.00) LOSE (3-6)

Leans

Anaheim Ducks @ Dallas Stars +5.5 $2.10 WIN (3-6)

Ryan Getzlaf to score (NT) $2.70 LOSE

Football (UCL matchday 5) for November 27

Group F: Arsenal (3-0-1) v Olympique de Marseille (0-0-4), Emirates Stadium, London, England, Wednesday, November 27, 6.45am

If Arsenal defeats bottom-of-the-group Marseille and Borussia Dortmund fail to defeat Napoli in Group F's other game, Arsene Wenger’s team will reach the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League for the 14th successive season. Arsenal sit top of the group, equal on points with Napoli, having beaten French side Marseille 2-1 in their first group game at the Stade Vélodrome. Wenger is expected to include £42.5m signing Mesut Özil in the team, defending the German attacker’s form after subdued performances in his last two Premier League games against Southampton and Manchester United. Midfielder Mathieu Flamini (pictured) returns after suspension while forward Theo Walcott is also in contention after playing in the 2-0 win over Southampton following two months out with an abdominal problem. It is the third successive season that Arsenal has faced French opponents in the UEFA Champions League. A year ago on matchday five they beat Montpellier Hérault SC 2-0 to register their first win in the competition at home to Ligue 1 sides.

Any hope of Marseille extending their own European campaign disappeared following a fourth-straight Group F defeat in Napoli, where they lost 3-2. European results to do not tell the whole story for Elie Baup’s team, who are fourth in Ligue 1, 10 points behind leaders Paris St Germain. They scored a morale boosting 3-1 win on the road to AC Ajaccio on Saturday. But they face an uphill battle here with France winger Dimitri Payet and Ghana midfielder Andre Ayew already ruled out. France playmaker Mathieu Valbuena and in-form centre-forward Andre-Pierre Gignac are doubtful. Valbuena is the team’s creative force, Gignac their most reliable goal scorer and Andre Ayew a player that often peaks on big occasions and has an excellent Champions League goal scoring record. I have to go with the Gunners in this spot – Marseille just don’t have the cattle to go with the EPL side on their home turf, with a clean margin of at least two goals a likely outcome.

Confirmed bets

Arsenal AH -1.5 v Olympique de Marseille (two units @ $1.93) WIN (2-0)

Ajax (double chance) v FC Barcelona (one unit @ $2.30) WIN (2-1)

FC Basel v Chelsea -2.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (1-0)
Borussia Dortmund v Napoli BTS (one unit @ $1.60) WIN (3-1)

Leans

Zenit St Petersburg v Atletico Madrid -2.5 $1.65 WIN (1-1)

Arsenal v Olympique de Marseille +2.5 $1.53 LOSE (2-0)

FC Basel v Chelsea (score 0-1) $7.50 LOSE (1-0)

Celtic (double chance) v AC Milan $1.55 LOSE (0-3)

Borussia Dortmund v Napoli +1 $2.45 LOSE (3-1)

FC Porto (to nil) v Austria Wien $1.75 LOSE (1-1)

Steaua Bucharest v Schalke 04 NO LEAN

• Prices with thanks to Centrebet (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.