Daily tips for October 6

NRL Grand Final for October 6

Sydney Roosters v Manly Sea Eagles, ANZ Stadium, Sydney, Sunday, October 6, 7.15pm

After 29 weeks and exactly 200 games between the 16 NRL clubs, it all comes down to this as the Sydney Roosters look to win their first premiership in 11 years against the might of the Manly Sea Eagles. In pure footballing terms, it couldn’t have been scripted better. Minor premiers the Roosters have been the benchmark for most of the 2013 season – combining their scintillating brand of attack with some of the greatest defensive efforts ever seen in the modern era. Thriving under the tutelage of rookie coach Trent Robinson – named the Dally M Coach of the Year last Tuesday night – they have benefited enormously from the brilliance of Sonny Bill Williams and fellow newcomers Michael Jennings, James Maloney and Luke O’Donnell.

But if there is one side that can throw a cat among the pigeons it is this experienced Manly outfit. The road to the decider certainly hasn’t been so smooth for the Sea Eagles. In fact, up until Round 25 when they sent a message of intent by belting Melbourne 28-8, Manly hadn’t beaten a fellow top-four side in 2013. Their draw hasn’t been simple either. These two sides met just three weeks ago in the first week of the finals and played out a bruising encounter, which saw the Roosters escape with a thrilling 4-0, win. But while the Roosters were rewarded with a week off (followed by a grand final qualifier against an over-matched Newcastle side), Manly had to back up against Cronulla, then face-off against South Sydney for their spot in the decider.

In the three matches between the Roosters and the Sea Eagles so far in 2013, the Chooks won all three; 16-4 in round 9 at Brookvale, 18-12 in round 16 at Allianz and the bruising 4-0 victory in week one of the finals. In two out of these three games the Eagles were without their most influential player; Brett Stewart and in the game he did play in (round 16) he was making his return after missing five weeks through injury. Pace, precision, invention and a mixture of youth and experience mean that the Sea Eagles just have a lethal concoction when they get their hands on the football. Kieran Foran and Daly Cherry-Evans have an almost telepathic understanding and the young #7 has been the stand-out player in the second half of the season and the finals.

In saying that, the Roosters backs also have sheer brilliance up their sleeves. There is a definite edge in the forward department for the Chooks. Top scorers in the regular season, the Roosters have so many potential threats out wide and with Origin duo Maloney and Pearce plus veteran Anthony Minichello (playing in his sixth Grand Final) they certainly have the experience too. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, Frank-Paul Nuuausala and Sam Moa all lead the charge while it seems that, at times, the mercurial SBW does cannot be stopped. The Sea Eagles have 189 games of finals footy under their belts with the Roosters with exactly 100 games. Manly have 11 of the side who won the 2011 Grand Final still around while the Roosters have seven others returning from their losing effort the year before.

Centrebet will refund your head to head bet if your team is leading at half-time but loses the match, up to $100!

Suggested bets: Manly WIN (1.5 units @ $2.20), game total +33.5 (2.5 units @ $1.95), Clive Churchill Medal winners – Dale Cherry-Evans (0.5 units @ $6.00); Jamie Lyon (0.5 units @ $10.00)

Racing for October 6

Horse racing: Bairnsdale (Vic), Ballina (NSW), Kilcoy (Qld), Port Lincoln (SA), Northam (WA), Benalla (Vic), Cootamundra (NSW), Hobart (Tas), Pioneer Park (NT). Harness racing: Launceston (Tas), Shepparton (Vic). Greyhound racing: Albion Park (Qld), Sandown Park (Vic), Sale (Vic), Strathalbyn (SA), Healesville (Vic), Mount Gambier (SA).

 

Since Comrade galloped to victory in the first running of the race in 1920, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe has grown in reputation to become Europe’s premier all-aged middle distance (2400m) race. A superb field will contest tonight’s 92nd running of the ‘Arc’ at Longchamp with a massive €4 million in prizemoney up for grabs. Fillies have won three of the last five runnings (Zarkava, Danedream and Solemia) of the ‘Arc’ and I expect #18 Treve to continue that trend. Unbeaten in four starts, she looked a remarkably talented performer when slamming subsequent Irish Oaks winner Chicquita by four lengths in the Prix de Diane (French Oaks) at Chantilly in June, and she confirmed that impression when comfortably beating the smart Wild Coco in last month's Prix Vermeille.

Frankie Dettori, who fractured his ankle in a fall at Nottingham earlier this week, will not be able to take the mount on a filly that could have sealed his riding comeback on one of the biggest stages in horse racing, but two-times Arc winning rider Thierry Jarnet is a more than adequate replacement. So far, Treve has always been ridden to produce stunning late-race acceleration and she's going to need some luck to slice through the big field. Normally, her high draw (15) would have been regarded as disadvantageous but it may help her stay clear of trouble and, in receipt of either or both the age and sex allowance from her rivals, she can prove too classy up the home straight.

Suggested bet: Longchamp R5 #18 Treve E/W 1x2 (two units) 1st ($5.80/$1.70)

• It’s also Cup Day at Benalla, Bairnsdale and Cootamundra. Anthony Freedman’s #1 Waldpark just failed to get a start in yesterday’s Turnbull Stakes so the 6yo stallion has been sent up the Hume Freeway for today’s $100,000 Benalla Toyota Gold Cup (race 8) over 2046 metres. The German import’s first two starts in Australia were in Group 1 company (the Maybe Diva Stakes and Underwood Stakes) so takes a big drop in class here. Dwayne Dunn will have to haul 62kg from the outside barrier but even that might not be enough to stop a stayer with eyes on a Cups campaign in the city.

Daily tips

Benalla R3 #9 Googly Gander (win) 1st ($2.00)

Benalla R7 #10 Godspiel (win) 1st ($1.60)

Benalla R8 #1 Waldpark (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Bairnsdale R5 #1 Danarule E/W 1x2) 2nd ($2.00)

Bairnsdale R6 #15 Pro Tour (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.70)

Bairnsdale R7 #5 Naturally Magic (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Cootamundra R3 #5 Anaveil Miss (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Cootamundra R7 #4 Street Ride (E/W) 1st ($19.00/$4.40)

Kilcoy R8 #7 Saveeda (E/W 1x4) 1st ($3.00/$1.30)

Port Lincoln R6 #8 Hank’s Nephew (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Hobart R1 #3 Credit Trader (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.50)

Hobart R5 #8 Spinning Jenny (win) LOSE (U/P)

NHL for October 6

Washington Capitals (1-1-0) @ Dallas Stars (0-1-0), American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX, Sunday, October 6, 10.10am

The Washington Capitals conceded three goals in the third period but still managed to defeat Calgary on Friday. The Capitals (1-1-0) dug out of a three-goal first-period hole for a 5-4 shootout victory over Calgary. The Stars, meanwhile, gave up three in the third to spoil their season opener in a 4-2 home loss to Florida. Both will try to avoid such 20-minute breakdowns in Dallas. Through two games, Washington fans have been exposed to some quality theatre. The Capitals came back from three one-goal deficits in Wednesday’s opener at Chicago and took their first lead early in the third period only to lose 6-4. They trailed 3-0 after one period Friday and 4-1 midway through the second before rallying to win. Alex Ovechkin had two second-period goals Thursday to get Washington within one. He and offseason acquisition Mikhail Grabovski both assisted on Nicklas Backstrom’s tying goal in the third and scored in the shootout. The poor start on Friday resulted in a goaltending change from Braden Holtby to Michal Neuvirth, but Holtby still start here.

The Stars’ bid to kick off 2013-14 on a positive note as they try to end a five-year playoff absence was going well until the last 10 minutes. Brenden Dillon scored to give Dallas a 2-1 lead 7:32 into the third, but the Panthers scored three unanswered goals from the 10:32 mark. First-year Stars coach Lindy Ruff watched his team get outshot 39-27, including 15-8 in the third. Alex Chiasson also scored for the Stars, who had earned at least a point in their last 14 home openers. Kari Lehtonen had won his previous three season openers before losing on Friday despite making 35 saves. Along with All-Star Jamie Benn (pictured), the centrepiece of the Stars’ scoring this season figures to be Tyler Seguin, who is familiar with Washington after being traded from Boston in the off-season. He has just three points in 11 career games against the Capitals. Washington and Dallas haven’t played since November 8, 2011, a 5-2 Dallas win. The Stars are 8-1-1 in this series dating back to 2002 and 9-0-2 at home against the Capitals since a regulation loss October 17, 1995.

Suggested bet: Game total +5.5 (two units @ $1.95) LOSE, Dallas WIN (one unit @ $1.93) WIN (1-2)

Other tips

Flyers @ Canadiens WIN $1.79 WIN -6 $1.80 WIN (1-4)

Senators @ Maple Leafs WIN $1.76 WIN (4-5)

Red Wings WIN $2.52 @ Bruins LOSE (1-4)

Blue Jackets @ Islanders WIN $1.83 LOSE (3-2)

Sabres @ Penguins -1.5 $2.14 WIN -6 $1.80 WIN (1-4)

Lightning @ Blackhawks +5.5 $1.88 LOSE (3-2)

Ducks @ Wild WIN $1.74 LOSE (4-3)
Oilers @ Canucks WIN $1.70 WIN (2-6)

Coyotes @ Sharks -5.5 $1.67 WIN (1-4)

CFL (week 14) for October 6

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2-11) @ Calgary Stampeders (10-3), McMahon Stadium, Calgary, AB, Sunday, October 6, 8.35am

The Calgary Stampeders have opened a massive 16-point favourite but they do possess the best record in the CFL after battling through injuries to go 4-1 in September. Calgary will try to keep its momentum going when it hosts the struggling Winnipeg Blue Bombers. Veteran quarterback Kevin Glenn started the last game for the Stampeders and threw three touchdowns in a dominating 35-11 victory over the Hamilton Tiger-Cats, while quarterback Drew Tate (pictured) recorded a rushing touchdown as he continues to rehabilitate from an elbow injury. Kicker Rene Paredes and running back Jon Cornish were named players of the month for September. Paredes earned special teams honours after making 12-of-13 field goals from Weeks 11-14, while Cornish was named top Canadian player after rushing for 398 yards in that span. Slotback Jabari Arthur has filled in admirably for the injured Nik Lewis, with four catches for 103 yards and two touchdowns last week against Hamilton. The Blue Bombers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.

A deflated Winnipeg team was manhandled 53-17 at home by the BC Lions last week after the Blue Bombers blew a 20-point lead at home against the Edmonton Eskimos a week prior. A road trip might seem like just the right thing for Winnipeg, but its road record is 1-5 - almost as bad as its 1-6 showing at home. Quarterback Max Hall started the last game for the Blue Bombers, who have alternated between Hall and Justin Goltz as they search for a solution to their league-worst offense, which has produced 268 points. Hall will start Saturday, but will need a strong performance to avoid being replaced by Goltz. Defensive end Alex Hall leads the league with 15 sacks after posting nine in his first CFL season. The league record for sacks in a season is 26.5, meaning Hall will need another 12 in his final five games to break it. Linebacker Henoc Muamba leads the team with 76 tackles. The ‘over’ is 9-1 in Stampeders last 10 home games.

Suggested bets: Game total -54 (three units @ $1.91) WIN, Winnipeg +16 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (11-38)

Other tips

Montreal +3 WIN @ Edmonton +50 WIN (47-24)

MLB playoffs for October 6

ALDS game 2: Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox, Fenway Park, Boston, MT, Sunday, October 6, 7.05am (Red Sox lead 1-0)

The biggest worry for the Boston Red Sox prior to Game 1 of the American League Division Series was rust after taking four days off between games. That turned out to not be much of a concern in a 12-2 victory, and the Red Sox will look to take a commanding lead in the best-of-five series when they host Game 2. Tampa Bay finished second in the majors in fielding percentage but looked uncomfortable on defence in Game 1. Rays left fielder Sean Rodriguez had trouble judging balls off the “Green Monster” and rookie Wil Myers let a fly ball drop on the warning track in deep right-center, leading to big innings for the Red Sox. With right-hander John Lackey scheduled to start for Boston here, Tampa Bay will likely give Rodriguez the start off in Game 2. Every Red Sox starter recorded at least one hit in Game 1, and seven different players had at least one RBI. Rays LH David Price (10-8, 3.33 ERA) pitched Tampa Bay into the playoffs by holding the Texas Rangers to two runs on seven hits in a complete game on Tuesday.

The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner allowed two runs in each of his last five starts, including over eight innings against the Red Sox on September 10. Price is 1-3 with a 3.96 ERA in his post-season career but came out of the bullpen against Boston in the 2008 ALCS, including closing out a Game 7 win. Speculation is swirling that this could be Price's last start in a Rays uniform. He'll become a free agent after 2015 and Tampa Bay (which is unlikely to retain him with one of baseball's lowest payrolls) could seek a return on him through the trade market. Red Sox RH John Lackey (10-13, 3.52) last pitched at Colorado on September 24 and struggled to a 4.98 ERA in five starts over the final month of the season. The veteran faced Tampa Bay twice in 2013 and was knocked around for nine runs on 19 hits in 10 total innings. Lackey is making his first post-season appearance since 2009, when he was with the LA Angels, and is 3-4 with a 3.12 ERA in 14 career playoff games.

Suggested bets: Tampa Bay WIN (one unit @ $1.87) LOSE, game total +7.5 (two units @ $1.95) WIN (4-7)

Other tips

ALDS game 2 (Tigers lead 1-0): Detroit Tigers WIN $1.86 @ Oakland Athletics LOSE (0-1)

NCAAF (week 6) for October 6

Pac-12: Washington Huskies (4-0, 1-0 Pac-12) @ Stanford Cardinal (4-0, 2-0 Pac-12, Stanford Stadium, Stanford, CA, Sunday, October 6, 12.30pm

Stanford (home of the most bizarre mascot in College Football, pictured) aims for its 13th straight win when the fifth-ranked Cardinal host #18 Washington, which is 4-0 for the first time since 2001. The Huskies defeated Stanford 17-13 a year ago in Seattle, but the Cardinal offence has undergone a transformation this season while scoring at least 34 points in each of its first four games. Pre-season All-American David Yankey missed last week’s rout of Washington State to attend to a family situation, but he’ll be back at left guard. Stanford’s stellar offensive line has helped the Cardinal out rush their last two opponents – Washington State and Arizona State – by a 478-101 margin. Linebackers Shayne Skov and linebacker Trent Murphy, who returned an interception for a touchdown last week against the Cougars, lead the defence. A year ago, Stanford failed to score an offensive touchdown against Washington. Former quarterback Josh Nunes completed 18 of 37 passes for 170 yards and an interception, often throwing at the feet of receivers or misfiring completely. The Cardinal, who ran for a school-record 446 yards in a 65-21 win over Washington in 2011, were held to 65 yards on the ground.

The Huskies lead the Pac-12 in total defence and will be tested by a Stanford offence that is led by junior quarterback Kevin Hogan, who is 9-0 as a starter. Hogan threw for three touchdowns in last week's 55-17 victory over Washington State and Devon Cajuste added 115 receiving yards, including two long TD catches. The Huskies are coming off a 31-13 win over Arizona last Saturday, when junior running back Bishop Sankey had a school-record 40 carries for 161 yards and a score. A massive wind and rain storm blew through the area and forced Washington to make significant changes to the game plan. Sankey ranks first in the nation with 151.8 rushing yards per game and senior QB Keith Price ranks 12th in pass efficiency for the Huskies, who haven't trailed all season. While the offence has lived up to expectations, the much-improved defence has been critical to Washington's early success. Safety Sean Parker and linebackers Princeton Fuimaono and Shaq Thompson lead the defense, which is allowing just 3.8 yards per play this season (third-best in the nation).

Suggested bet: Stanford -7.5 (2.5 units @ $1.91) LOSE, game total -52.5 (1.5 units @ $1.91) LOSE (28-31)

Daily tips (two units)

Georgia State @ Alabama -54.5 WIN (3-45)

Rutgers @ SMU +4.5 WIN LOSE +48 WIN (55-52)

Texas San Antonio @ Marshall -15 WIN +65 LOSE (10-34)

Florida International +17 WIN @ Southern Miss -46.5 LOSE (24-23)

Massachusetts @ Bowling Green -50.5 WIN (7-28)

Texas State @ Louisiana Lafayette +55 WIN (24-48)

Arkansas @ Florida -43 WIN (10-30)

Fresno State -27 WIN @ Idaho +66.5 WIN (61-14)

New Mexico State @ New Mexico -9.5 WIN +59.5 WIN (17-66)

Daily tips (one unit)

Michigan State @ Iowa -1 LOSE (26-14) 
Army @ Boston College -50.5 LOSE (27-48)

Georgia Tech @ Miami -5 WIN (30-45)

Louisville @ Temple -58 WIN (30-7)

Maryland @ Florida State -16 WIN +56.5 WIN (0-63)

North Carolina State @ Wake Forest -47 WIN (13-28)

North Texas -2.5 @ Tulane LOSE (21-24)

North Carolina @ Virginia Tech -45.5 WIN (17-27)
Kansas State @ Oklahoma State +59 WIN (29-33)

Washington State @ California -66 PUSH (44-22)

Ohio @ Akron -57 WIN (43-3)

Arizona St -6 @ Notre Dame LOSE (34-37)
Mississippi @ Auburn -56.5 WIN (22-30)

LSU @ Mississippi State +55 WIN (59-26)

TCU @ Oklahoma -46.5 WIN (17-20)

Kentucky @ South Carolina -54.5 LOSE (28-35)

West Virginia @ Baylor +69.5 WIN (48-73)

San Jose -5 @ Hawaii WIN (37-27)

EPL for October 5-6

Liverpool (4-1-1) v Crystal Palace (1-0-5), Anfield, Liverpool, Sunday, October 6, midnight

The tone of the season appears to be already settled for these sides, with Liverpool setting lofty aspirations while Palace look in a world of hurt. Given how newly-promoted Palace have started this campaign, only their most optimistic fans will expect similar thrills here. The corrosive effect of three successive defeats without scoring will have bitten into the dressing room optimism of five months ago. Ian Holloway is just the man to get them going again but he urgently needs to settle on his strongest side. However, they will have a decent spell. November is a crucial month for them with winnable games. Palace’s only previous league win away to the Reds was on November 2, 1991, when Marco Gabbiadini and Geoff Thomas scored for the visitors. The Eagles are also winless in 16 Premier League away matches (D5, L11), a run dating back to a 1-0 victory at Birmingham in October 2004.

The return of Luis Suarez to complement Daniel Sturridge (pictured) gives Liverpool formidable firepower. The Uruguayan has 18 goals in his last 21 games, while the Englishman has 18 in 24 Reds appearances (and eight of their last 12 EPL goals). Liverpool played five league games at Anfield during Luis Suarez’s ban for biting. Those matches produced a total of four goals. Whether their squad has the strength to stay in the top four all season is debatable. But Brendan Rodgers has made good signings and is assembling a squad to challenge for silverware again soon. The hosts are not invincible by any means – a home defeat to Southampton and a 2-2 draw at Swansea highlights that point – but surely the gulf in class will ultimately become clear as it did on their travels at bottom club Sunderland and I expect the Reds to win without conceding.

Suggested bets: Liverpool 2+ (three units @ $1.83) WIN, correct score 2-0 (0.5 units @ $6.50) LOSE, correct score 3-0 (0.5 units @ $7.00) LOSE

Other tips

Manchester City v Everton DNB $3.75 LOSE (3-1)

Cardiff City v Newcastle United +2.5 $1.95 WIN (1-2)

Fulham v Stoke City -1.5 $3.00 WIN (1-0)

Hull City v Aston Villa WIN $3.40 LOSE (0-0)
Sunderland v Manchester United WIN $1.62 WIN (1-2)

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