Daily tips for October 19

A-League (round 2) for October 19

Brisbane Roar (1-0-0) v Sydney FC (1-0-0), Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, Saturday, October 19, 7.45pm

The blue army of Sydney FC was buoyant after the opening round victory over Newcastle, but their side won’t be afforded near the time to move the ball at Suncorp Stadium in the match of the round. Both Sydney and Brisbane made winning starts to the new season last weekend. The Roar came from behind to beat an under-strength Wellington 2-1, while the Alessandro Del Piero-inspired Sky Blues defeated Newcastle 2-0. Sydney coach Frank Farina should have Socceroos veteran Brett Emerton (back) available again while Rhyan Grant, who came off the bench last weekend, is edging nearer to full fitness and a chance to start. The two sides met in the pre-season with Brisbane running out comfortable winners and the Roar have a superior head-to-head record against Sydney, winning two of the three clashes last season. I’m expecting the Roar to continue that run of success here with too much firepower for the Sky Blues.

Brisbane will again play their open, attractive brand of football under Mike Mulvey. They created a host of opportunities against Wellington and took two to ensure they left the 'Cake Tin' with all three points. While he would have been delighted with the way his side played, Mulvey will want his strikeforce, led by Beshart Berisha (pictured), to be more clinical in front of goal, especially when they come up against the stronger sides in the A-League. The Sky Blues answered a host of critics with their win over Newcastle in the season-opener. The challenge for Sydney and Farina now is to keep it going. Consistency in performances was the side's big problem last season, rarely able to string good games together in a row. With a big derby against the Western Sydney Wanderers to come in round 3, the Sky Blues can ill-afford to take two steps back after starting the campaign on the front foot.

Suggested bets: Brisbane WIN (2.5 units @ $1.63) WIN, game total +2.5 (1.25 units @ $1.68) WIN, both teams score (1.25 units @ $1.72) LOSE (4-0)

Other tips

Melbourne Heart v Central Coast Mariners +2.5 $2.21 WIN (2-2)

Racing for October 19

Today's highlights

Caulfield R4 G3 $150,000 Jacob Park Thoroughbreds Norman Robinson Stakes (2000m, SWP, 3yo)
Caulfield R6 G3 $150,000 Sportingbet Moonga Stakes (1400m, SWP, 4yo+)
Caulfield R7 G2 $220,000 Perri Cutten Caulfield Sprint (1100m, handicap)
Caulfield R8 G3 $150,000 David Jones Cup (2000m, handicap)
Caulfield R9 G2 $220,000 Yellowglen Tristarc Stakes (1400m, SWP, 4yo+ mares)
Caulfield R10 G1 $2.5 million BMW Caulfield Cup (2400m, handicap)
Randwick R8 G3 $150,000 City Tattersalls Club Nivison (1200m, SWP, 4yo+ mares)
Ascot R7 G3 $125,000 Northerly Stakes (1400m, handicap, 3yo+)

Horse racing: Caulfield (Vic), Randwick (NSW), Doomben (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Ascot (WA), Newcastle (NSW), Bendigo (Vic), Gold Coast (Qld), Wodonga (Vic), Narromine (NSW), Wagga (NSW), Rockhampton (Qld), Darwin (NT). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Globe Derby (SA), Menangle (NSW), Narrogin (NSW), Newcastle (NSW), Swan Hill (Vic). Greyhound racing: Ipswich (Qld), Wentworth Park (NSW), Cannington (WA), Nowra (NSW), Richmond (NSW), Shepparton (Vic), The Meadows (Vic).

OK, before I preview the Caulfield Cup, how would you like to make a guaranteed profit on the race? Guaranteed. There are some great promotions being offered by most sites across the carnival, with one of the best being double fixed odds (called Double The Odds) on Ladbrokes. This promotion is available on all the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival feature races, including today's Caulfield Cup (Betstar is also offering the same promotion from 1-2pm on Saturday). Say you want to back the favourite Hawkspur (priced at $5), Ladbrokes will guarantee a price of $10. Next – bet Hawkspur or any other Caulfield Cup starter to win (the maximum bet is $50 and only one selection is permitted per account). Then, using Betfair, lay the same horse to the same value of your win bet on Ladbrokes.

Example: Bet Hawkspur to WIN ($50) @ $10 on Ladbrokes; lay Hawkspur to LOSE ($50) @ $5.90 on Betfair. Best result (Hawkspur WIN) = $400 profit; worst result (Hawkspur 2nd or worse) = $195 profit.

Onto the race, and here’s my Caulfield Cup tip for punters – look elsewhere today! I’ve assessed the top 10 chances to within two lengths making it bloody tough to find the 2013 winner, let alone eliminate too many runners from contention. That said, there’s excellent value down the field and for those on course today, I’d expect that rails bookmakers who’ve yet to accept too many big bets will take on the top three or four chances. I’m happy to just play the value here. Based on recent history, some runners offering excellent value emerge. Only five winners of the Metropolitan have journeyed south for the Caulfield Cup over the past decade, with two of those five (Railings and Tawqeet) winning the race.

Julienas (pictured) placed second in the Metropolitan, maps to get every chance on the speed and could also be aided by the other Gai Waterhouse runner Glencadam Gold at the head of the field. We’re well aware of the appalling record of international runners first-up in the Melbourne Cup, but it’s a much different story when they have their first run at 2400m. In 23 attempts across races including the Herbert Power, Geelong Cup and Caulfield Cup, internationals have won seven races from 23 starts. Betting those runners would have returned a staggering profit. That puts Dandino into the frame although, at $9, he’s at least four points under the odds. FWIW, Hawkspur probably wins but there are safer bets today.

Suggested bets: Caulfield R10 #4 Waldpark (E/W), #10 Moriarty (E/W), #13 Julienas (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Daily tips

Caulfield R1 #3 Scarlett Billows (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Caulfield R1 #1 Roop All (place) 2nd ($3.90)

Caulfield R2 #6 Hucklebuck (E/W 1x4) 1st ($2.80/$1.40)

Caulfield R3 #7 Fantome Gris (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Caulfield R4 #4 San Diego (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($1.90)

Caulfield R5 #4 Avoid Lightning (win) LOSE (4th)
Caulfield R6 #1 Boban (E/W 1x2) 1st ($3.40/$1.70)

Caulfield R7 #11 Chiaramonte (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Caulfield R8 #5 Spurtonic (win) 1st ($3.10)

Caulfield R9 #1 Red Tracer (E/W 1x2) 1st ($3.90/$1.70)

Randwick R3 #2 Barbed (win) LOSE (4th)

Randwick R3 #2 Boss Lane (E/W) 1st ($9.10/$3.50)

Randwick R4 1/4/8 Boxed Trifecta WIN 4/8/1 ($69.70)
Randwick R5 #1 Famous Seamus (E/W 1x2) 1st ($3.10/$2.00)

Randwick R6 #7 Hippopus (E/W 1x2) LOSE (U/P)

Randwick R7 #2 Coup Ay Tee (E/W) 2nd ($2.50)
Randwick R8 #3 She's Clean (win) LOSE (U/P)

Doomben R2 #2 Borehole (E/W) LOSE (4th)
Doomben R3 #1 Belltone (win) 1st ($3.70)
Doomben R6 #6 Anna Lizzie (win) 1st ($2.20)
Doomben R7 #8 Billy Aucash (E/W) LOSE (4th)
Doomben R8 #1 Cape Kidnappers (win) 1st ($1.70)

Morphettville R3 #3 Pistoller (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($1.70)
Morphettville R5 #7 Brave Journey (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Morphettville R6 #4 Heart Of A Lion (win) 1st ($1.90)
Morphettville R7 #4 Karacatis (win) LOSE (3rd)
Ascot R1 #5 Ora Dare (win) 1st ($2.00)
Ascot R8 #14 Arcadia Rose (win) 1st ($2.60)
Ascot R9 #3 Woken (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($1.90)

CFL (week 17) for October 19

Calgary Stampeders (12-3) @ Edmonton Eskimos (3-12), Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton, AB, Saturday, October 19, 12.10pm

The Calgary Stampeders have a chance to wrap up first place in the Canadian Football League’s West Division when they visit the Edmonton Eskimos for a Week 17 clash at Commonwealth Stadium. A win combined with a Saskatchewan loss clinches top spot for the Stampeders, who own a four-point lead over the second-place Roughriders and a six-point lead over the third-place BC Lions. Sitting back in fourth place and eliminated from contention, meanwhile, is their Alberta rival, the Eskimos – yet even though 18 points separate the two teams, the Stampeders aren’t about to take this week’s opponent lightly as they aim for their fourth straight win. The Stampeders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Edmonton.

Calgary veteran quarterback Kevin Glenn is posting the most efficient season of his 13-year CFL career, with a completion percentage of 67.3 and a passer rating of 102. Starting pivot Drew Tate is almost ready to return full-time for the Stampeders, but Glenn is making it difficult for the team to ignore what he’s done in Tate’s absence. Running back Jon Cornish (pictured) already has a career-best 1545 rushing yards with three games remaining. Kick returner Clifton Smith had a massive debut for Calgary last week against the BC Lions, totaling 188 return yards and a receiving touchdown. Defensive linemen Cordarro Law and Charleston Hughes have 25 sacks combined (more than half the team total of 49).

Edmonton quarterback Mike Reilly has thrown for an impressive 3589 yards despite being sacked a division-high 48 times, making his case to remain the Eskimos starter beyond this lost season. Slotback Adarius Bowman has 27 catches for 357 yards and two touchdowns since returning from a knee injury on September 6. Linebacker JC Sherritt remains out indefinitely with a fractured thumb, which he re-injured two weeks ago against the Montreal Alouettes. Edmonton’s offense is fairly one-dimensional, with Reilly leading the team in rushing yards with 581 – 56 more than running back Hugh Charles. The Eskimos have allowed a league-worst 135.1 rushing yards per game while Edmonton SB Fred Stamps has a league-leading 1127 receiving yards.

Suggested bets: Game total -54 (three units @ $1.91) WIN, Calgary -4.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (27-13)

NHL for October 19

St Louis Blues (5-1-0, 10 pts) @ Winnipeg Jets (3-4-0, 6 pts), MTS Centre, Winnipeg, MB, Canada, Saturday, October 19, 11.10am

It’s been a good week for St Louis sports. The NFL Rams smashed the Texans, the Cardinals are on the march to another World Series while the Blues have lost just one of their opening six games in the 2013-14 NHL season. Following a lousy defensive performance in San Jose, the Blues tightened things up in impressive fashion against the defending Stanley Cup champions and will aim to avoid a letdown against a struggling Winnipeg Jets team that could be without Evander Kane. With Brian Elliott expected to get his first start, the Blues look to open the season 6-1 for the second year in a row Friday night when they visit Winnipeg. St Louis (5-1-0) had given up just seven goals while winning its first four games before Jaroslav Halak (pictured) yielded four on 26 shots before getting pulled in a 6-2 loss to San Jose on Wednesday. Halak, however, returned to form Thursday by stopping 27 of 29 shots (and all three shootout attempts) in a 3-2 win at Chicago. The Blues, who hope to challenge the Blackhawks atop the Central Division, also defeated their rivals 3-2 in St Louis on October 9.

Though Kane’s right leg injury is believed to be minor, he needed help off the ice during Wednesday’s practice. The winger, tied for the team lead with three goals, is expected to be a game-time decision. With Bryan Little also banged-up but likely to play, the Jets (3-4-0) could use Kane's skill. Since scoring 10 times during a promising 2-0-0 start, they’ve tallied seven goals while dropping four of five games. They couldn’t get any of their 36 shots past Carey Price in Tuesday’s 3-0 loss to Montreal. Blake Wheeler, Winnipeg’s leader with 19 goals last season, has only one goal and three points. He has five goals and six points in five career games against the Blues. Wheeler scored twice in a 3-2 shootout loss to St Louis on February 25, 2012, the only other meeting since the club moved from Atlanta. Though Ondrej Pavelec stopped 22 of 24 shots against the Canadiens, he has a 3.05 goals-against average and looks to avoid his fifth straight loss. Center Alexander Steen has goals in five of six games for St Louis, which ranks among the NHL’s top scoring clubs with 24 goals.

Suggested bets: St Louis TT +2.5 (three units @ $1.75) WIN, game total -5.5 (two units @ $1.74) LOSE (3-4)

Other tips

Coyotes @ Ducks WIN (Reg) $2.00 LOSE -5.5 $1.83 WIN (2-3)

College Football (week 8) for October 19

AAC: Central Florida Knights (4-1, 1-0 AAC) @ 8 Louisville Cardinals (6-0, 2-0 AAC), Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium, Louisville, KY, Saturday, October 19, 11am

Coach Charlie Strong knows he needs a balanced showing from both his offence and defence over 60 minutes if his eighth-ranked Cardinals are to sidestep a tricky match-up against Central Florida. The Knights are 3-0 on the road including an upset of Penn State and were only narrowly defeated by 11th-ranked South Carolina 28-25. Louisville will attempt to remain among the 14 unbeaten teams in FBS here. The sixth-ranked Cardinals are coming off a 24-10 victory against Rutgers, one of the two teams they have faced with a winning record. Louisville’s opponents have combined to go 13-23, while none of the six remaining teams left on the schedule are ranked in the Top 25. Cardinals quarterback Teddy Bridgewater (pictured) had an off day by his lofty standards last Thursday. He may not catch much of a break against the Knights, who allow 16.6 points per game – good for the second-best mark in the American Athletic Conference. Central Florida has its own prolific signal-caller in Blake Bortles, who ranks second in the conference behind Bridgewater in passing efficiency (160.4).

While they only have one win against a ranked team in school history, the Knights have established themselves as a quality foe. Although they rank fourth in the conference in passing offence, wide receivers Breshad Perriman (fourth) and Rannell Hall (eighth) are among the top 10 in receiving yards. Perriman and Hall have combined for five of the team’s six 100-yard receiving efforts, the school’s most since 2006. With the Cardinals’ vaunted offense unable to score at least 30 points for the first time this season last week, the defence collected four interceptions (most in a game since 2000), eight sacks and held Rutgers to 12 yards rushing. Louisville has allowed 12 yards rushing or fewer two times over the last three games and a total of 63 yards on the ground over that same stretch. The Cardinals are yielding an FBS-low 7.3 points and 229.5 total yards per game, good for second in FBS. The Knights are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall while the ‘under’ is 5-1 in Knights last six games overall.

Suggested bets: Game total +55.5 (three units @ $1.91) WIN, Louisville -14 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (38-35)

MLB playoffs for October 19

NLCS game 6 (St Louis leads 3-2): Los Angeles Dodgers @ St Louis Cardinals, Busch Stadium, St Louis, MO, Saturday, October 19, 11.40am

For four successive starts, Michael Wacha (pictured) has been virtually untouchable while appearing oblivious to the stakes. The St Louis Cardinals need one more just like that from their pressure-proof rookie to get to the World Series for the second time in three years. Wacha outpitched NL Cy Young front-runner Clayton Kershaw in Game 2 of the National League Championship Series and the Cardinals won 1-0 on an unearned run to take a 2-0 series lead. They’re matched again here in Game 6. Offence had been at a premium throughout the series until the Dodgers busted out and swatted four homers (two by Adrian Gonzalez) to stave off elimination with a 6-4 victory in Game 5. St Louis failed to take advantage of some early scoring opportunities on Wednesday but its bats are starting to come around, producing 10 hits after managing a total of 12 in the previous three games. Cardinals’ left fielder Matt Holliday is 5-for-8 with a homer and three RBIs in the last two games. The Dodgers are trying to become the 12th team to rally from a 3-1 deficit to win a best-of-seven series. The Cardinals squandered a 3-1 series last fall against the Giants.

Kershaw (0-1, 0.00) was saddled with the loss in Game 2 despite allowing an unearned run on only two hits in his six-inning stint. In three starts this postseason, the likely NL Cy Young Award winner has yielded four runs (one earned) and eight hits while striking out 23 in 19 innings. As well as he pitched in Game 2, Kershaw has lost all three starts to St Louis this season. The Dodgers have also lost six straight post-season series when facing elimination at any point, dating to the 1995 NLDS. Wacha (1-0, 0.00) has pitched with the poise of a veteran rather than the rookie who entered the playoffs with nine regular-season starts. He struck out eight in 6 2/3 scoreless innings to outduel Kershaw in Game 2 and was dominant in his NL Division Series start, allowing one run and one hit with nine strikeouts in 7 1/3 innings. Wacha’s last three outings have been off the charts – the 22-year-old has yielded one run on seven hits while striking out 26 in 22 2/3 innings. The Cardinals are 10-1 in their last 11 home games against a team with a winning road record.

Suggested bet: St Louis (three units @ $2.09) WIN (0-9)

Note: All times quoted on the Last at Cannington blog are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT)

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