Daily tips for October 23

Note: Bets will now be listed in three categories on the Last at Cannington blog – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but no bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).

Racing for October 23

Today's highlights

Geelong R7 G3 $300,000 Sportingbet Geelong Cup (2400m, handicap)

Horse racing: Geelong (Vic), Randwick (NSW), Doomben (Qld), Strathalbyn (SA), Ascot (WA), Launceston (Tas). Harness racing: Ararat (Vic), Bathurst (NSW), Redcliffe (Qld). Greyhound racing: Albion Park (Qld), Bendigo (Vic), Richmond (NSW), Angle Park (SA), Bulli (NSW), The Meadows (Vic), Cranbourne (Vic), Cannington (WA), Ballarat (Vic), Rockhampton (Qld).

Racegoers are normally accustomed to fine and sunny skies for the running of the Geelong Cup, but that’s not the case today with the nine runners in the $300,000 event facing a heavy (9). That makes it mighty hard to find a winner, but creates some excellent value in a market that would have been dominated by the Irish runner #2 Forgotten Voice. The outcome of the race is only further complicated by the complete lack of pace. I was prepared to make Forgotten Voice my tip in Saturday’s Caulfield Cup if he’d scored a run but have big doubts about the 9yo gelding’s chances on a heavy track. All nine of his wins have been on firm going or all-weather surfaces, and he figures to get a long way back in the running here. I’m now leaning to the 8yo gelding #4 Moudre, with Craig Williams taking the ride for Ciaron Maher. He placed third behind Foreteller and Puissance de Lune in the Makybe Diva Stakes first-up this Spring and, although recent runs haven’t been too flash, he’s a proven wet-tracker with two wins and two placings from six starts on worse than dead. #7 Crafty Cruiser looks the next best.

Confirmed bets

Randwick R5 #1 Footy Fan (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.70)

Randwick R6 #8 Perplexity (E/W 1x2) LOSE (U/P)

Geelong R6 #8 Cavallo Nero (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($1.50)

Geelong R7 #4 Moudre (E/W) 3rd ($2.20)

Leans

Randwick R2 #10 Lorna May (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.30)

Geelong R1 #8 Paige’s Boy (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($2.00)

Geelong R4 #2 Slade De Cerisy (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.40)

Geelong R9 #10 Triple Tease (E/W 1x2) LOSE (U/P)

Doomben R3 #3 Pretty Gully (E/W) 1st ($5.30/$2.90)

Strathalbyn R6 #1 Irish Cheer (E/W 1x3) LOSE (U/P)

NHL for October 23

Edmonton Oilers (2-6-1, 5 pts) @ Montreal Canadiens (5-3-0), 10 pts), Bell Centre, Montreal, QC, Canada, Wednesday, October 23, 10.35am

The injury list is mounting for the Montreal Canadiens but the Edmonton Oilers are in no position to offer much sympathy. With Danny Briere and Brandon Prust being added to the lengthy injury list, the Canadiens will try to rebound from their most recent result and beat the Oilers for the second time in less than a fortnight. Montreal (5-3-0) has eight players on injured reserve, including another stint by Max Pacioretty (pictured) – the team's scoring leader in each of the last two seasons – with a hamstring strain. Two more Canadiens went down during Sunday’s 2-1 defeat to Nashville, as Briere was lost indefinitely to a concussion while Prust is out four weeks with a right shoulder injury. The injuries could mean increased ice time for rookie Michael Bournival, who has one point in each of the last two games. He could find himself on Montreal’s top line with center Tomas Plekanec and right wing Brian Gionta, who have combined for just seven points.

The Oilers have six players on injured reserve after adding star left wing Taylor Hall (tied for the team lead with eight points) to the list due to a left knee injury. He’ll miss a month after getting hurt on Saturday at Ottawa. GM Craig MacTavish said that forward Ryan Smyth is expected to be out for a week with a groin injury. The Oilers recalled forwards Ben Eager and Tyler Pitlick from the minors. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had two goals and an assist in the 3-1 victory over the Senators to improve to 1-3-1 on this six-game road trip. Edmonton got some good news on the injury front with forward Jordan Eberle expected to play after missing two practises. Tied for the team lead with eight points, Eberle is likely to skate with Nugent-Hopkins and Nail Yakupov on a line that the banged-up Oilers need to produce. Eberle has three goals and three assists on the trip while Smyth scored in that meeting.

Confirmed bets

Canadiens WIN (two units @ $1.50) LOSE (4-3)

Flames @ Coyotes WIN NT (one unit @ $1.80) WIN (4-2)
Ducks @ Maple Leafs +5.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (2-4)

Capitals @ Jets -5.5 (one unit @ $1.83) LOSE (5-4)

Leans

Oilers -2.5 TT $1.74 @ Canadiens LOSE (4-3)

Ducks WIN $1.91 @ Maple Leafs LOSE (2-4)

Canucks WIN $1.83 WIN @ Islanders +5.5 $2.05 WIN (5-4)

Devils @ Blue Jackets WIN $1.70 WIN (1-4)

Blackhawks WIN $1.57 @ Panthers WIN (3-2)

Predators WIN $2.20 @ Wild LOSE (0-2)

Capitals WIN $1.95 WIN (5-4) @ Jets 1P -1.5 $1.92 WIN (0-0)

College Football (week 9) for October 23

Sun Belt: UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (4-2, 2-0 Sun Belt) @ Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-3, 1-0), Liberty Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, AR, Wednesday, October 23, 11am

When it comes to offensive production, the Arkansas State Red Wolves have kept fans guessing. The Red Wolves will need to be at their explosive best here as they welcome one of the nation’s most formidable offences in the UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns. Arkansas State is coming off an impressive 48-24 drubbing of the Idaho Vandals 10 days ago but will be in tough against the Cajuns, who have reeled off four consecutive victories. After relying on the arm of standout QB Terrance Broadway in consecutive wins over Akron and Texas State, the Ragin' Cajuns used a stout ground attack to subdue the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 37-20 in their previous game. Alonzo Harris led the way with 115 rushing yards and a pair of scores as UL Lafayette finished with three touchdowns on the ground, amassing 198 of its 254 rushing yards in the opening half. Broadway ranks third in the conference in quarterback efficiency, while Harris is third in rushing yards per game.

When they put points on the board, the Red Wolves have a great deal of success, and when they don't, a loss is nearly automatic. Arkansas State is averaging better than 50 points per game in its three victories (including a 62-11 rout in its season opener against Arkansas-Pine Bluff) and fewer than 12 points in its three losses. UL Lafayette has steamrolled its way to the top of the Sun Belt Conference standings, averaging 47.5 points during its winning streak. Senior QB Adam Kennedy had the game of his career last time out, erupting for a career-high 375 passing yards and four touchdowns in the win over the Vandals. The strong performance vaulted the Utah State transfer into third in the Sun Belt in passing yardage. David Oku led the ground attack with 69 yards and a touchdown, the 24th of his four-year collegiate career. The Red Wolves have one of the best third-down conversion rates in the country, making good on 48 per cent of their attempts.

Confirmed bet

UL Lafayette -2.5 (two units @ $1.82) WIN (23-7)

Leans

Game total +68 ($1.91) LOSE (23-7)

Football (UCL matchday 3) for October 23

Group F: Arsenal v Borussia Dortmund, Emirates Stadium, London, England, Wednesday, October 23, 5.45am

This is probably the most anticipated clash of the Champions League so far, matching two teams that play fast-paced and exciting football. Arsenal has returned to their swashbuckling ways and the top of the Premier League with some sublime displays. They’re also sitting pretty at the top of Group F after victories at Marseille and at home to Napoli. Arsenal has coped with the prolonged absence of Theo Walcott, Thomas Vermaelen, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Lukas Podolski. Summer signing Mesut Ozil has been in stunning form, with three goals and four assists from seven games). The German international playmaker has slotted seamlessly into the Arsenal system. He’s by no means the only Arsenal player in form, as Aaron Ramsey (pictured) has scored six goals and setting up four more in just nine appearances. Imposing centre-forward Olivier Giroud has taken time to adjust to Arsenal’s style, but he has scored five goals and contributed four assists, including a delicious pass for Jack Wilshere’s opener against Norwich. However, they’ll be without influential midfield stalwart Mathieu Flamini, who will miss here with concussion. Since their opening-day defeat to Aston Villa, Arsenal has won five home games in a row.

The picture isn’t so rosy for last season's runners-up Borussia Dortmund, who lost their opener in Naples before beating Marseille 3-0. BVB have been hit by a series of injury problems, and coach Jurgen Klopp (who will be banned from the touchline after his extraordinary meltdown in Naples) has admitted some of his players have been running on empty. There’s no doubt that Dortmund’s best XI is a match for any team on the continent, but their squad lacks depth. Last weekend’s 1-0 win over Hannover in the Bundesliga was far from impressive, and in the game before that Klopp's men suffered a rare defeat, losing 2-0 at Borussia Monchengladbach. Dortmund will welcome back Germany defender Mats Hummels from suspension, but BVB have kept just three clean sheets on the road this term. Left-back Marcel Schmelzer has only just returned from injury, while emergency right-back Kevin Grosskreutz will have his positional play fully-tested by Arsenal’s movement. Klopp has plenty of attacking options, and Marco Reus (five goals), Robert Lewandowski (six goals), Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (five goals) and Henrikh Mkhitaryan (three goals) could all feature. I have to go with the Gunners here – at home, in form and on top of their game.

Confirmed bets

Arsenal WIN (two units @ $2.50) v Borussia Dortmund LOSE (1-2)

Austria Wien v Atlético Madrid TO NIL (two units @ $1.95) WIN (0-3)

Olympique Marseille v Napoli WIN (one unit @ $2.50) WIN (1-2)

Leans

AC Milan (Double Chance) $2.40 v Barcelona WIN (1-1)

Celtic v Ajax Amsterdam NO BET

FC Porto v Zenit St Petersburg (Double Chance) $2.30 WIN (0-1)

Steaua Bucharest v FC Basel BTS $1.65 WIN (1-1)

Schalke 04 v Chelsea WIN $2.25 WIN (0-3)

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