Daily tips for October 16

Racing for October 16

Today’s highlights

Caulfield R6 G1 $500,000 Schweppes Thousand Guineas (1600m, set weights, 3yo fillies) 

Caulfield R7 G3 $135,000 Snowhite Maintenance Stakes (1600m, SWP, 4yo+ mares)

Horse racing: Caulfield (Vic), Warwick Farm (NSW), Eagle Farm (Qld), Murray Bridge (SA), Northam (WA). Harness racing: Bendigo (Vic), Redcliffe (Qld). Greyhound racing: Albion Park (Qld), Angle Park (SA), Ballarat (Vic), Bendigo (Vic), Bulli (NSW), Cannington (WA), Cranbourne (Vic), Richmond (NSW), Rockhampton (Qld), The Gardens (NSW), The Meadows (Vic).

Thousand Guineas Day is an oddity on the Melbourne Spring Carnival calendar. It’s run midweek, it’s generally a pretty one-sided affair (as is the case again this year) and the card isn’t anywhere near the standard of other major meetings this month. But the Melbourne Racing Club insist on leaving it as a stand-alone day, and it will still provide an excuse for 15-20,000 Melburnians to call in sick! I’m afraid I don’t have much to offer in the feature race today. #1 Guelph is a class above anything in this field with back-to-back Group One wins under her belt this preparation.

The Darley stable of Peter Snowden already has the Caulfield Guineas in the bag (thanks to Long John) and, at $1.40, Guelph (pictured) is priced accordingly to make it two Group 1 3yo features in four days. The speed map looks favourable for her, while she has twice attained ratings (Sires Produce and Tea Rose Stakes) that blow this field out of the water. Instead, I like the place price of #2 Gregers. She’s a winner of four from six including last time out at Caulfield on September 21. I’d prefer some give in the track but she should have enough class to fill a placing.

Suggested bet: Caulfield R7 #2 Gregers PLACE (two units @ $2.20) 3rd ($2.20)

Other tips

Caulfield R1 #5 Gravitational (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Caulfield R2 #1 Junoob (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.90)

Caulfield R3 #4 Specter (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.50)

Caulfield R4 #5 Hosting (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Caulfield R5 #1 Backbone (E/W) 1st ($13.30/$4.00)

Caulfield R7 #13 Godspiel (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Caulfield R8 #3 Academus (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($1.70)

Warwick Farm R1 #4 Transfers (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Warwick Farm R2 #3 Gallatin (E/W 1x2) 1st ($4.10/$1.60)

Warwick Farm R3 #8 Chez Harmony (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($2.10)
Warwick Farm R5 #1 Iriomote (E/W 1x3) LOSE (U/P)

Eagle Farm R1 #1 Rock Home Late (E/W 1x3) 1st ($2.50/$1.70)

Murray Bridge R5 #3 Late Night Drink (win) 1st ($2.20)

Murray Bridge R8 #8 Komovi (E/W) LOSE (4th)

NHL for October 16

Dallas Stars (2-2-0) @ Colorado Avalanche (5-0-0), Pepsi Center, Denver, CO, Wednesday, October 16, 12.10pm

Paced by solid goaltending, the Colorado Avalanche remain focused during their best start since relocating from Quebec 18 years ago. The Avalanche look to continue their unbeaten streak when they host the Dallas Stars here. After missing the playoffs in the past three seasons, Colorado (5-0-0) joins San Jose and St. Louis as the only NHL teams without a loss. However, first-year coach and Hall-of-Fame goaltender Patrick Roy (pictured), who helped lead the Avs to Stanley Cup titles in 1996 and 2001, does not want to make too much of the team’s surprising start. Prior to this year, the club had never won its first five games since moving to Denver in 1995. The Avs are within striking distance of the franchise-best 7-0-0 start by the 1985-86 Nordiques because of the stellar play of Semyon Varlamov and Jean-Sebastien Giguere, who have combined to allow only four goals on 171 shots. Varlamov made 40 saves in Sunday’s 5-1 victory at Washington, improving to 4-0-0 with a 1.00 goals-against average. Giguere stopped 39 shots during a 2-0 win at Boston on Friday in his only start.

Center Nathan MacKinnon, the 18-year-old No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft, scored his first goal and added one of his team-leading five assists on Sunday. Matt Duchene got his third goal of the season as Colorado jumped out to a 2-0 first-period lead against the Capitals. Duchene has two goals and two assists in his last three games, but has gone without a point in his previous four against Dallas. Colorado dropped two of three last season against the Stars (2-2-0), who are looking to bounce back from a 5-1 loss at Minnesota on Sunday. Dallas gave up a goal 12 seconds in and trailed 4-0 before Jordie Benn scored on the power play in the second period. Dan Ellis made 31 saves against the Wild and could again be called on to start in place of Kari Lehtonen, who is day-to-day with a lower-body injury suffered during Saturday’s 4-1 victory at Winnipeg. Ellis has a 2.76 GAA during a personal four-game winning streak against Colorado. Stars center Tyler Seguin has recorded both of his goals and all four assists during the last three games.

Suggested bets: Avalanche WIN (3.5 units @ $1.59) WIN, game total +5.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (2-3)

Other tips

Wild @ Maple Leafs +2.5 TT $2.02 WIN WIN $1.73 WIN (1-4)

Sabres @ Islanders WIN $1.50 LOSE (4-3)

Canucks WIN $1.92 @ Flyers WIN (3-2)

Oilers @ Penguins -1.5 $2.21 LOSE (2-3)

Blackhawks @ Hurricanes 1P +1.5 $1.88 WIN (2-0)

Kings @ Lightning WIN $1.96 WIN (1-5)

Blue Jackets WIN $2.11 LOSE @ Red Wings -5.5 $1.72 WIN (1-2)

Sharks @ Blues 1P +1.5 $2.15 WIN (2-0)

Panthers TT +2.5 $1.80 @ Predators WIN (3-4)

Canadiens @ Jets WIN $2.15 LOSE (3-0)

Senators WIN $2.25 WIN @ Coyotes +5 $2.32 WIN (4-3)

MLB playoffs for October 16

ALCS game 3 (series tied 1-1): Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers, Comerica Park, Detroit, MI, Wednesday, October 16, 7.10am

David Ortiz added to his playoff lore in Game 2 with the big blow of a memorable comeback and the Boston Red Sox seek to take a 2-1 lead in the American League Championship Series when the scene moves to Detroit for Game 3 on Tuesday. Boston recovered from a five-run deficit with Ortiz hitting a game-tying grand slam in the eighth and Jarrod Saltalamacchia driving in the winning run an inning later. The Tigers attempt to recover behind red-hot Justin Verlander. They appeared headed to a 2-0 series lead prior to the bullpen meltdown that saw Ortiz belt the 15th post-season homer of his career, a blast off Joaquin Benoit that Detroit right-fielder Torii Hunter was unable to grab and flipped over the low wall and into the Boston bullpen. Hunter injured his head, neck and shoulder with his tumble into the bullpen but said he will play in Game 3. The Red Sox are 1-7 in the last eight meetings in Detroit while the ‘over’ is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings.

Tigers RH Verlander (pictured, 13-12, 3.46) hasn’t allowed a run in 15 post-season innings this October and Boston hitters have struggled against Detroit starters in the series, totaling one run and two hits while striking out 25 times in 13 innings against Anibal Sanchez and Max Scherzer. Verlander struck out 21 while allowing six hits and two walks against Oakland in the ALDS. He allowed four runs and seven hits in five innings in a no-decision against Boston on June 23 and his career record is 3-4 with a 3.65 ERA in 11 starts. Verlander was 6-7 with a 3.73 ERA in 17 regular-season home starts. Red Sox RH John Lackey (10-13, 3.52 ERA) defeated Tampa Bay in the AL Division Series when he gave up four runs and seven hits in 5 1/3 innings. He went 0-1 with a 3.14 ERA in two starts against Detroit this season and his career mark is 6-3 with a 3.89 ERA in 12 outings. Lackey went 3-7 with a 4.35 ERA after the All-Star break, a huge drop from a 2.78 mark beforehand.

Suggested bets: Detroit (1.5 units @ $1.64) LOSE, game total -7.5 (3.5 units @ $1.77) WIN (1-0)

Football (international friendly) for October 16

Canada v Australia, Craven Cottage, London, UK, Wednesday, October 16, 6am

At a time when Aussie football fans should be celebrating our qualification for the 2014 World Cup finals, the national side is at its lowest ebb in years. Coach Holger Osieck was dismissed after Australia’s 6-0 loss to France last week while captain Lucas Neill displayed a fair degree of delusion in an interview in London yesterday as to the reasons for recent poor performances. That’s the backdrop to Australia’s friendly against Canada at Craven Cottage. Coincidentally Osieck led Canada to an unexpected triumph in the 2000 CONCACAF Gold Cup, and was at the helm of Australia when they qualified for Brazil 2014 earlier this year. Even though our World Cup ticket is already booked, the Socceroos should be motivated for the clash with Canada – not just to wash away the taste of their recent humiliating defeats, but to show the team’s new manager (whoever it may be) that they’re worthy of inclusion in next summer’s tournament squad. Canada and Australia last met in 1993, when they contested the CONCACAF/OFC intercontinental playoff in World Cup qualifying. Canada won the first leg, played in Edmonton, by a score of 2-1. The second leg, played in Sydney, also ended 2-1.

Canada, meanwhile, are in much the same boat in their second camp under Benito Floro; but, of course, without a World Cup berth to look ahead to. Les Rouges are in full-on transition mode as Floro searches for the mix of players that will lead the program forward. To say it’s been a bad 12 months for Canada would be an understatement. After crashing out of World Cup qualifying with a humiliating 8-1 loss in Honduras almost exactly one year ago, the team has scored just one goal in 10 games (three draws and seven losses), with their most recent result being a 1-0 loss to lowly Mauritania last month. There are two big concerns for the Socceroos here. Firstly, Neill has further alienated the younger members of the squad with his bizarre comments describing, “the biggest problem in Australia right now is not the older guys who have been there doing it for a long time." Secondly, the defence, led by Neill, has carved apart with precision by both Brazil and France. Sure, Canada may not have the quality of those two but the core problems remain for the Socceroos.

Suggested bet: Game total +2.5 (2.5 units @ $1.95) WIN, draw (one unit @ $3.75) LOSE (3-0)

Football (World Cup qualifiers) for October 16

World Cup qualifier – Europe Group D: Turkey v Netherlands, Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium, Istanbul, Turkey, Wednesday, October 16, 5am

It’s the final night in the opening round of World Cup qualifiers for European nations with only five countries assured a place in the 2014 finals in Brazil next year. All eight European group winners will progress after tonight’s games, while the eight group runners-up will contest Round 2 across four home-and-away ties. Those four winners qualify for the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil. As such, there are vastly different levels of motivation at play. Some have already qualified, some are chasing a top two spot while, for others, the dream of qualification is already a memory. The seven countries with nothing at stake tonight are Belgium, Italy, Germany, Holland and Switzerland (all confirmed group winners) along with Croatia and Sweden (confirmed runners-up). Of course, places in these squads are being eagerly sought so players still have plenty to prove. Those with ‘meaningful’ games tonight are Bulgaria, Denmark, Turkey, Romania, Slovenia, Iceland, Russia, Portugal, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Greece, England, Spain and France.

The Group D battle is as intriguing as any. Turkey host group winners Netherlands, and Fatih Terim’s side are guaranteed runners-up spot if they can beat the Dutch. However, Romania (level on points) can leapfrog Turkey with a better result over Estonia. The Netherlands demolished Hungary 8-1 in their last game, and Louis van Gaal’s team are still intent on squeezing into the seeded positions for the Brazil 2014 group stage draw. Van Gaal (pictured) has also declared that beyond Rafael van der Vaart, Robin van Persie and Arjen Robben, all spots in the squad are up for grabs. Turkey are certainly a capable side, and come into this match having not lost a competitive game in almost exactly a year. Burak Yilmaz has been in superb form netting in each of his last four international matches and generally leading the line like a striker of genuine calibre. These combined factors should at least produce plenty of goals.

Suggested bet: Game total +2.5 (two units @ $1.67) LOSE, Netherlands WIN (two units @ $2.80) WIN (0-2)

Others tips

Azerbaijan v Russia DRAW $4.50 WIN (1-1) 

Portugal v Luxembourg 3-0 $5.50, 4-0 $5.00 WIN (3-0) 

Republic of Ireland v Kazakhstan -2.5 $2.00 LOSE (3-1)

Scotland WIN $3.40 v Croatia WIN (2-0) 

Norway v Iceland -2.5 $1.80 WIN (1-1) 

Switzerland v Slovenia WIN or DRAW $1.75 LOSE (1-0)

Israel WIN $1.44 v Northern Ireland LOSE (1-1) 

Lithuania v Bosnia-Herzegovina -2.5 $1.80 WIN (0-1) 

Greece v Liechtenstein 2-0 $5.00 WIN (2-0)

England v Poland BTS $2.50 LOSE (2-0) 

Serbia HT/FT $1.95 v FYR Macedonia WIN (3-0/5-1) 

Sweden v Germany +2.5 $1.60 WIN (3-5)

Belgium (only score) $1.62 LOSE v Wales 2-0 $6.00 LOSE (1-1) 

Romania v Estonia -2.5 $2.25 WIN (2-0)

Spain v Georgia Draw/Spain $4.00 LOSE (1-0/2-0)

France 2+ $1.56 v Finland WIN (3-0) 

Latvia v Slovakia WIN $2.20 LOSE (2-2) 

Bulgaria v Czech Republic -2.5 $1.95 WIN (0-1)

Paraguay v Colombia DRAW $3.10 LOSE (1-2)

Chile v Ecuador +2.5 $2.30 WIN (2-1)

Jamaica v Honduras DRAW $3.40 WIN (2-2)

Note: All times quoted on the Last at Cannington blog are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT)

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