Daily tips for October 11

A-League (round 1) for October 11

Sydney FC v Newcastle Jets, Allianz Stadium, Sydney, Friday, October 11, 7.30pm

The A-League is growing in popularity among punters both here and abroad. The eight-team competition is one of the most evenly balanced national leagues on the planet. Yes, there’s plenty of money on A-League games coming from Asia but I’ve seen no evidence of match-fixing despite its (now widely publicised) prevalence at the State level. The 2013-14 season is shaping as one of the biggest on and off the park, and kicks-off with Newcastle’s trip to Sydney tonight at Allianz Stadium. Neither side is anywhere near full strength – seven of Sydney’s starting XI out either injured or on national duty while Heskey, Bridges and Gibbs miss for the Jets. It's always difficult to judge how a team is heading into a new season on the back of results in the pre-season. While Sydney have travelled to Italy and Japan and performed strongly, their recent results haven't exactly filled their fans with confidence. Most punters have pegged this as a 2-1 win for Sydney, but I can’t see too many goals here.

Four straight defeats to A-League and NSW Premier League opposition is hardly ideal but Sydney coach Frank Farina will be judged on what happens from this point on. In contrast the Jets have produced some strong form and impressive results and head into the season-opener on the back of four consecutive wins. Sydney FC's squad has undertaken a bit of a revamp over the Australian winter and it will be interesting to see how quickly they can gel. Young attacker Corey Gameiro will miss the start of the season through injury, meaning much of the attacking impetus alongside Alessandro Del Piero (pictured) will fall to the likes of Richard Garcia and Joel Chianese. Newcastle's main man Emile Heskey is also unavailable due to a knee injury picked up against Melbourne Victory in the pre-season, robbing the fans of another all-star match-up with Del Piero, that attracted more than 35,000 fans to Allianz Stadium roughly 12 months ago. Socceroos prospect Adam Taggart is set to lead the line in the former English International's absence.

Suggested bets: Game total -2.5 (2.5 units @ $2.10) WIN, Newcastle DNB (one unit @ $2.65) LOSE (2-0)

Racing for October 11

Horse racing: Kyneton (Vic), Cranbourne (Vic – night), Port Macquarie (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Canberra (ACT). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Wagga (NSW), Globe Derby (SA), Melton (Vic), Newcastle (NSW), Gloucester Park (WA), Kalgoorlie (WA). Greyhound racing: Casino (NSW), Mount Gambier (SA), Traralgon (Vic), The Gardens (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Geelong (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Mandurah (WA).

The fact that Tony McEvoy (pictured) is making the long trek to the NSW mid-north coast for the running of today’s $80,000 Carlton Mid Port Macquarie Cup underlines his confidence in Assertive Billy. The Cup is race 7 on an eight-race card, with weather expected to be fine and the track rated a good (3). #4 Assertive Billy will be chasing back-to-back in the race and looks extraordinarily well placed to do so. McEvoy has a tremendous record at NSW country tracks since opening his operation at Hawkesbury earlier in the year. McEvoy has had 12 runners during that period for seven winners – that’s a 58 per cent winning strike rate. Four of the remaining five runners finished in the placings with the other runner finishing fourth. The 8yo gelding is unbeaten at Port Macquarie winning the Cup Prelude on September 29 and drops a massive 5kg after shouldering 59kg last-start. Two of his nine wins have been at 2000m while Robert Thompson stays aboard after piloting to victory a fortnight ago.

Suggested bet: Port Macquarie R7 #4 Assertive Billy E/W 1x2 (two units) LOSE (4th)

Other tips

Port Macquarie R1 #3 La Disco (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($2.00)

Port Macquarie R3 #3 Siberian (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Port Macquarie R4 #8 Zing Zang Ziva (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Kyneton R1 #1 Aajwaad (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($2.20)

Kyneton R6 #2 Livery (win) LOSE (2nd)

Ipswich R2 #3 Vino Volo (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.60)

Ipswich R5 #7 Banchory Lass (win) LOSE (2nd)

Canberra R3 # Exacta 2/4-5 2-4 ($3.10)

Canberra R8 #13 Zuccherina (E/W) 1st ($6.90/$2.10)

Cranbourne R1 #5 Navajo Run (E/W)

Cranbourne R3 #4 Like A Carousel (E/W 1x2)

Harness racing tip: Melton R7 #6 Bettor Give It (win)
Greyhound racing tip: Wentworth Park R7 #1 Avondale Porche (win)

NFL (week 6) for October 11

New York Giants (0-5, 0-3 away) @ Chicago Bears (3-2, 2-1 home), Soldier Field, Chicago, IL, Friday, October 11, 11.35am

The wheels have completely fallen off for the New York Giants, who are off to a disastrous start and face a short turnaround when they visit the Chicago Bears to kick-off week 6 in the NFL. The Giants have dropped their first five games, the franchise's worst start in a non-strike season since 1979, and have shown little resistance while surrendering a league-worst 36.4 points per game. As bad as the Giants have been, they are only two games out of first place in the NFC East. While New York's defence has been abysmal, the running game is in shambles with second-year back David Wilson suffering a neck injury on Sunday and still dealing with tingling on Monday. That has forced Eli Manning to carry a one-dimensional offense and the results have not been pretty – he's thrown a league-high 12 interceptions and been sacked 15 times. New York has allowed at least 31 points in the first five games, matching a league record set by the Chicago Cardinals in 1954.

There is also plenty of concern in Chicago, which is coming off back-to-back losses following a 3-0 start to the season. A stout defense is normally a staple of the Bears, but they have been burned for an average of 28 points per game and have yet to hold an opponent under 21. Quarterback Jay Cutler (pictured) threw for 358 yards in Sunday’s 26-18 home loss to New Orleans, but Chicago’s defence allowed Drew Brees and the Saints to control the ball for 36 minutes. One of the few positives to come out of Sunday's loss was the immense performance of second-year wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey, who had 10 receptions for a franchise-record 218 yards. Of course, Jeffrey's monster day came at the expense of fellow wideout Brandon Marshall, who was limited to four catches for 30 yards and expressed his frustration after the game. But Bears RB Matt Forte has rushed for 375 yards and also had 27 receptions for 200 more.

Suggested bets: Chicago -6.5 (1.5 units @ $1.63) LOSE, Chicago TT +27.5 (1.5 units @ $1.83) LOSE, game total +47.5 (2.5 units @ $1.91) WIN (21-27)

NHL for October 11

Florida Panthers (1-2-0) @ Tampa Bay Lightning (2-1-0), Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL, Friday, October, 11, 10.40am

The Tampa Bay Lightning have demonstrated an early knack for comeback victories. Their coach would like to see a more complete performance. Tampa Bay follows a three-game trip with its home opener against the cross-state rivals the Florida Panthers. The Lightning are 2-1-0 despite not holding a lead in regulation. After a 3-1 loss at Boston last Friday, they scrapped for a 3-2 shootout victory in Chicago, overcoming a two-goal, third-period deficit. Then they erased a 2-1 hole on the way to a 3-2 overtime victory in Buffalo on Wednesday. A high-sticking penalty negated a goal by Thomas Vanek, then Teddy Purcell tied the game on the ensuing advantage, and Alex Killorn scored the winner in the extra period. Meanwhile, the Panthers (1-2-0) are looking to earn a split of their four-game road trip. To do so, they’ll likely need to break through on the power play, where they're scoreless despite 16 chances. Tampa Bay has yielded three goals on 12 penalty kills.

Florida squandered five advantages in a 2-1 loss at Philadelphia on Tuesday with Flyers goaltender Steve Mason stopping 33 shots. Brad Boyes accounted for the team’s lone goal. Goaltender Tim Thomas left in the first period due to a pulled groin and didn’t return, though coach Kevin Dineen said the injury didn’t appear serious. He was replaced by Jacob Markstrom, who stopped all 25 shots he faced. Thomas owns a .923 save percentage in 18 games against the Lightning, including 16 starts. Tampa Bay’s Martin St. Louis (pictured) is one point away from sole possession of 94th place on the league's all-time scoring list. His 915 points are tied with Bobby Orr. St. Louis has 34 points over his last 26 games versus Florida. Purcell owns six assists and one goal in his last four against the Panthers. Tampa Bay had won seven straight in the series before dropping the last two meetings, both at home. The Lightning haven’t lost three in a row at home to the Panthers since a five-game home slide from November 27, 1998-March 10, 2000.

Suggested bet: Lightning WIN (three units @ $1.57) WIN, game total +5.5 (one unit @ $1.74) WIN (2-7)

Other tips

Avalanche @ Bruins WIN $1.50 LOSE -5.5 $1.77 WIN (2-0)

Blue Jackets @ Sabres WIN $1.95 LOSE -5 $2.10 PUSH (4-1)

Hurricanes WIN $2.25 WIN @ Capitals +5.5 $1.87 LOSE (3-2)

Coyotes @ Red Wings -1.5 $2.75 LOSE (4-2)

Maple Leafs WIN $1.91 WIN @ Predators -5.5 $1.83 WIN (4-0)

Jets @ Wild WIN $1.65 WIN (1-2)

Canadiens @ Oilers WIN $1.77 LOSE -5.5 $2.10 WIN (4-1)

Sharks WIN $1.87 WIN @ Canucks -5.5 $1.72 WIN (4-1)

Rangers WIN $2.20 LOSE @ Ducks +5.5 $2.15 WIN (0-6)

MLB playoffs for October 11

ALDS game 5: Detroit Tigers @ Oakland Athletics, O.co Coliseum, Oakland, CA, Friday, October 11, 10.05am

It’s Justin Verlander and Sonny Gray, the encore. These decisive Game 5s sure are becoming familiar for Verlander. Not so much for the Oakland rookie. Just like last October in Oakland, the Tigers have been pushed to a winner-take-all fifth game in their AL division series against the Athletics. And Detroit will again have Verlander on the mound after he pitched a four-hit shutout in the 2012 clincher at the Oakland Coliseum. The last time the A's won a winner-take-all postseason game was in Game 7 of the 1973 World Series against the New York Mets. Oakland has lost its last five Game 5s in the AL division series since 2000. The Tigers finally found their offensive form in Game 4. They’re still not getting much from Miguel Cabrera but the supporting cast, led by Victor Martinez and Jhonny Peralta, has stepped up. The Tigers had scored in only two innings in the first three games to fall behind 2-1 in the best-of-five series but overcame a pair of deficits in Wednesday’s 8-6 triumph. The Athletics finally showed some vulnerability in the bullpen, which had three relievers combine to allow five runs in the final two innings of Game 4.

Verlander struck out 11 and allowed four hits in Sunday’s Game 2 but did not factor in the decision when Oakland ended up claiming a 1-0 victory. The former Cy Young Award winner has now made three ALDS starts against the Athletics in the last two seasons and yielded a total of one run and 11 hits while striking out 33 in 23 innings. Verlander threw at least 117 pitches in each one of those starts. Athletics starting pitcher Sonny Gray (pictured, 5-3, 2.67 ERA) matched Verlander pitch-for-pitch last Sunday, as he scattered four hits over eight strong innings, while issuing two walks and striking out nine batters. The rookie right-hander allowed opponents to hit just .200 against him at home during the regular season. Gray will also have the support of 48,000-plus fans with their swirling yellow rally towels packing the Coliseum. They are sure to be even more hyped up and fiery Thursday night after watching a disputed home run at Comerica Park in Tuesday's loss. A pair of fans reached out to grab the ball as right fielder Josh Reddick was leaping for it at the wall. The homer went to replay review and stood as a solo shot for Victor Martinez.

Suggested bets: Oakland WIN (2.5 units @ $1.95) LOSE, game total -6.5 (1.5 units @ $2.00) WIN (3-0)

NCAAF (week 7) for October 11

Pac-12: Arizona Wildcats (3-1, 0-1 Pac-12) @ USC Trojans (3-2, 0-2 Pac-12), Los Angeles Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA, Friday, October 11, 12.30pm

The Lane Kiffin era has ended and it will be interim coach Ed Orgeron running the team when USC hosts Arizona in this crucial Pac-12 contest. Athletic director Pat Haden fired Kiffin after the Trojans suffered a 62-41 loss to Arizona State on September 28 and Orgeron is looking to overcome a 0-2 start in conference play. Arizona is coming off a loss to Washington and needs a victory over USC to remain a factor in the Pac-12 South race. Trojans sophomore QB Cody Kessler (pictured) is completing 63.5 per cent of his passes with six touchdowns against four interceptions. Trojans receiver Marqise Lee (knee) could miss the game, which won’t sadden Arizona coach Rich Rodriguez due to Lee catching 16 passes for a Pac-12 record 345 yards against the Wildcats last season. Lee has modest season totals of 30 receptions for 385 yards and was questionable by Orgeron, as was senior outside linebacker Morgan Breslin (hip), who has a team-best 7.5 tackles for loss.

Senior running back Silas Redd (knee) could see action for the first time but sophomore Tre Madden (583 yards) has a firm grip on the starting job after topping 100 yards in four of five games. The 62 points allowed against Arizona State matched for worst in school history and was a shocking development considering the presence of stars like Breslin, junior safety Dion Bailey (team-high 28 tackles, two interceptions), junior defensive end George Uko (four sacks) and sophomore defensive end Leonard Williams (seven tackles for loss). Arizona junior RB Ka’Deem Carey is looking for his eighth consecutive 100-yard outing and has scored at least one touchdown in 17 of his last 18 games. Senior quarterback B.J. Denker is only a 50 per-cent passer and tossed his first two interceptions of the campaign in the loss to Washington but excels as a rusher (280 yards, team-high six touchdowns). An opportunistic defence has intercepted seven passes with junior safety Tra’Mayne Bondurant recording three – returning two for touchdowns – while freshman outside linebacker Scooby Wright has recorded a team-leading 28 tackles.

Suggested bets: USC -6 (two units @ $1.91) WIN, game total +47.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (31-38)

Other tips

Rutgers +19 WIN @ 8 Louisville -54.5 WIN (10-24)

San Diego State @ Air Force +4 LOSE -55 WIN (27-20)

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