Daily tips for October 31

Note: Bets are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).


College Football (week 10) for October 31

AAC: Cincinnati Bearcats (5-2, 2-1 AAC) @ Memphis Tigers (1-5, 0-3 AAC), Liberty Bowl, Memphis, TN, Thursday, October, 31, 11am

Week 10 in College Football opens with a genuine head-scratcher. Cincinnati has preyed on the bottom of the American Athletic Conference after enduring a great deal of adversity during its non-conference schedule. The Bearcats lost quarterback Munchie Legaux to a season-ending knee injury in the second game of the season. Two weeks later, Cincinnati was dealt a more severe blow when guard Ben Flick was killed and two other players were injured in a car accident following a victory at Miami (Ohio). The Bearcats lost their first game following the accident, but have rebounded with home triumphs over Temple and Connecticut – teams that have yet to win a conference game. The Tigers are also searching for their first AAC victory, but held second-half leads on co-conference leaders Central Florida and Houston before falling in each contest. Memphis took its third straight loss in a 34-29 setback to SMU on October 19, trailing by 31 before scoring the final 26 points.

Cincinnati receiver Mark Barr, one of the two players injured in the accident, was released from the hospital last week. Brendon Kay, who took over for Legaux following his injury, is completing 79.4 per cent of his passes in conference play and tied a career high with four touchdown passes in the Bearcats’ 41-16 victory over Connecticut. The defense did its part as well against the Huskies, setting season highs for interceptions (three), sacks (eight) and tackles for loss (11). Despite allowing 460 yards to SMU, the Tigers rank 13th in the FBS for total defence and are tied for 34th in scoring defense after finishing 51st and 80th, respectively, in 2012. Linebacker Ryan Coleman played a key role in the Tigers’ second-half surge, tying an NCAA record with two fumble returns for touchdowns. Memphis, which gives up an average of 80 penalty yards (the second-highest mark in FBS), drew nine flags for 110 yards against SMU – the second time it has surrendered at least 100 yards in penalties.

Confirmed bet

Game total -44.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (34-21)

Leans

Memphis WIN $2.05 LOSE (34-21)

NHL for October 31

Toronto Maple Leafs (9-4-0, 18pts) @ Calgary Flames (5-4-2), 12pts), Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB, Thursday, October 31, 11.10am

The Toronto Maple Leafs have started the 20-13-14 season impressively but have lost seven straight in Calgary, the last five in regulation. Their last win there came on December 27, 2002. Phil Kessel (pictured) has figured in 10 of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ last 14 goals. With seven goals and three assists in the last four games, he’ll keep firing away when the Leafs’ road trip takes them to Calgary to face a Flames team seeking its fourth straight home win. Kessel scored twice and added two assists in Tuesday’s 4-0 win over Edmonton as the Leafs (9-4-0) started a three-game trip on an impressive note. He’s tied for second in the league with 18 points, and the four-point night moved the Leafs into sole possession of the Atlantic Division lead. James Reimer stopped 43 shots for his first shutout of the season and improved to 4-0-0 as the Leafs were outshot for a 10th straight game. He made 37 saves in Saturday’s 4-1 win over Pittsburgh. The Leafs have won three of four and are tied for fourth in the league in scoring (3.31).

The Flames (5-4-2) are having some issues keeping the puck out of their net, ranking 29th in goals-against average (3.46). They’ve allowed three or more goals in seven of 11 games, and are the league’s only team yet to hold an opponent to fewer than two goals in a game this season. One of those two-goal games came in a 5-2 home win on Saturday against Washington. Michael Cammalleri had two goals and an assist and Kris Russell had one of each to help Calgary improve to 3-0-1 on home ice. Cammalleri has three goals and two assists in four games after missing the start of the season with a hand injury. Calgary had allowed 17 goals in its previous four games. Things won't get any easier defensively with captain Mark Giordano out. The Flames announced Tuesday that the defenseman will miss 6-8 weeks with a broken ankle. He took a shot off the right ankle in the second period at Los Angeles on October 21. Winger Lee Stempniak is also out after he suffered a broken bone in his right foot blocking a shot last week in Dallas.

Confirmed bets

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Calgary Flames +5.5 (two units @ $1.83) WIN (4-2)

San Jose Sharks WIN @ Los Angeles Kings (one unit @ $1.77) LOSE (3-4)

Leans

Toronto Maple Leafs WIN NT $2.38 @ Calgary Flames WIN (4-2)

Boston Bruins WIN $2.05 LOSE @ Pittsburgh Penguins -5.5 $1.70 LOSE (2-3)

Detroit Red Wings @ Vancouver Canucks NO LEAN


MLB (World Series) for October 31

Game 6 (Boston leads 3-2): St Louis Cardinals @ Boston Red Sox, Fenway Park, Boston, MT, Thursday, October 31, 11.10am

The Red Sox last won a World Series at home in September 1918. The Boston Red Sox rode David Ortiz to a World Series lead and are hoping the slugger has one more great game left this season. Ortiz will take his .733 World Series batting average into Game 6 when the Red Sox host the St Louis Cardinals with a chance to close out the series. Ortiz matched a World Series record by reaching base safely in nine straight plate appearances and contributed three hits and an RBI to Game 5’s 3-1 victory. Ortiz (11) needs two more hits to tie the record for a single World Series shared by three others. The Cardinals will not only have to face Ortiz here but also Mike Napoli, with Ortiz moving back to the designated hitter spot and Napoli coming off the bench to play first base in the American League park. St Louis could use some offence of its own after being limited to a total of three runs in the last two games. The bottom of the order is providing very little and the top two hitters (Matt Carpenter and Shane Robinson) combined to go 0-for-7 with three strikeouts in Game 5.

Cardinals RH Michael Wacha (1-0, 3.00 ERA) is 4-0 with a 1.00 ERA in four post-season starts but surrendered more than one run for the first time since September 19 in Game 2 at Boston, yielding two runs on three hits and four walks. The 22-year-old needed a season-high 114 pitches to complete the six frames. Wacha allowed a two-run homer to Ortiz that briefly put the Red Sox on top in that contest. Red Sox RH John Lackey (0-1, 3.68) went up against Wacha in Game 2 and left with a 2-1 lead after 6 1/3 innings despite being at just 95 pitches. Craig Breslow came on and allowed the inherited runners to score, saddling Lackey with the loss. The veteran came out of the bullpen in Game 4 and tossed a scoreless eighth on his between-starts throw day. Matt Holliday has both of the Cardinals’ home runs in the series and is 1-for-10 against Lackey in his career, with the lone hit a Game 2 triple. The Cardinals are 3-7 in their past 10 playoff road games while the Red Sox are 4-0 in the past four Games 6 of a series.

Confirmed bet

Boston WIN (one unit @ $1.87) WIN (1-6)

Leans

Boston TT +3.5 $2.00 WIN (1-6)

Game total -7 $1.77 PUSH (1-6)

NBA for October 31

Memphis Grizzlies @ San Antonio Spurs, AT & T Center, San Antonio, TX, Thursday, October 31, 11.40am

Two sides that are again likely to feature in the championship picture kick-off their 2013-14 campaigns here. The San Antonio Spurs spent the off-season with the pain of just missing the franchise’s fifth NBA title. They take the first steps toward recovery when they host the Memphis Grizzlies, the team they swept in the Western Conference finals before losing to the Miami Heat in an equally tight championship series. The cores of both teams return, although Memphis has a new coach with former assistant David Joerger taking over for Lionel Hollins. Both teams are expected to again compete in the talent-laden West, and San Antonio will do its best to shake its post-season heartbreak. The teams split their four regular-season games last year while the Grizzlies have not won a season opener since the franchise moved to Memphis before the 2001-02 season – a stat that is likely to continue here. The ‘over’ is 11-5 in the past 16 meetings in San Antonio while the Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in the past six games.

Memphis returns all the key pieces from last year’s team that set a franchise record for wins. Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph are one of the league’s most formidable frontcourt duos, and Mike Conley has become a dependable point guard. The Grizzlies had a relatively quiet offseason but added big man Kosta Koufos and sharpshooter Mike Miller. The Grizzlies also re-signed one of their top defenders in Tony Allen. The swingman inked a four-year contract worth $20 million. San Antonio, the NBA’s model franchise for consistency didn’t do anything to shake that label in the off-season. Coach Gregg Popovich (pictured with Tony Parker) is back for his 18th season, and Tim Duncan is right behind him with 17. With those two around, San Antonio has long been one of the league’s most difficult destinations for opponents, and that was no different last year when the Spurs went 35-6 at home in the regular season. The Spurs did their part to keep their core together by signing Manu Ginobili to a two-year deal worth $14.5 million.

Confirmed bets

Memphis Grizzlies @ San Antonio Spurs WIN (two units @ $1.42) WIN (94-101)

Portland Trailblazers WIN @ Phoenix Suns (1.5 units @ $1.46) LOSE (91-104)

Charlotte Bobcats @ Houston Rockets -13 (one unit @ $1.91) PUSH (83-96)

Leans

Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers -196 $1.91 LOSE (110-116)

Brooklyn Nets WIN $1.65 @ Cleveland Cavaliers LOSE (94-98)

Washington Wizards @ Detroit Pistons NO LEAN
Milwaukee Bucks @ New York Knicks -195 WIN (83-90)
Atlanta Hawks +6 $1.91 @ Dallas Mavericks LOSE (109-118)

Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 $1.91 @ Utah Jazz LOSE (101-98)

Denver Nuggets @ Sacramento Kings WIN $1.65 (WIN 88-90)

LA Lakers @ Golden State Warriors +206 $1.91 WIN (94-125)

Football (Capital One Cup) for October 31

Fourth round: Newcastle United v Manchester City, St James’ Park, Newcastle, UK, Thursday, October 31, 6.45am

With Newcastle and Manchester City both smarting from late defeats against fierce EPL rivals on Sunday, there is little danger of either club not giving high priority to this League Cup fourth-round tie. City’s calamitous loss at Chelsea (their third Premier League away defeat of the season) has left them six places and points off the top of the table. Their flawless display in a 4-0 win over Newcastle on the opening weekend is already a distant memory, even if manager Manuel Pellegrini maintains his side are playing well.  The exception, of course, is in defence, where Joe Hart’s loss of form and the unsettling absence of captain Vincent Kompany are proving costly. Kompany remains a doubt with a groin injury but Jack Rodwell is fit after hamstring problems. Goalkeeper Costel Pantilimon is expected to replace Hart, as he did for the previous round. Manchester City have won the last eight meetings and are unbeaten in 14 (W12, D2) since Newcastle won 1-0 at home in the Premier League in September 2005.

Pellegrini felt Manchester City were unlucky to lose at Chelsea, a sentiment echoed by Newcastle manager Alan Pardew (pictured) about his side following the Wear-Tyne defeat by Sunderland. Pardew insists the League Cup is a priority for his side this season, viewing it as a realistic opportunity to win silverware. Newcastle are vying to reach the fifth round of this competition for the first time since 2006. They have lost their last three League Cup ties against top-flight opposition, conceding 10 goals in the process. City have loftier ambitions than the League Cup, but the importance of Wednesday’s tie in the wake of recent away results will not be lost on them. Defender Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa is available after suspension; Fabricio Coloccini will not be rushed back from a groin problem while Steven Taylor is still out with a hamstring injury. This is the fourth meeting of these clubs in the League Cup – Manchester City won 2-1 in the 1976 final and also progressed from their fourth-round tie in 1994 after a replay.

Confirmed bets

Newcastle United v Manchester City +2.5 (two units @ $1.65)

Tottenham Hotspur 2+ v Hull City (one unit @ $1.92)

Leans

Newcastle United v Manchester City BTS $1.70

Tottenham Hotspur v Hull City (2-0) $5.25

Rugby League (World Cup) for October 31

Group D: USA v Cook Islands, Memorial Stadium, Bristol, UK, Thursday, October 31, 7am

The Cook Islands have a population of almost 11,000 people while more than 313.9 million people call the United States home. However, the Pacific islanders will enter this Group D Rugby League World Cup fixture as warm favourites as both nations eye a debut tournament victory. The USA Tomahawks are playing in their maiden World Cup after falling just short at recent attempts, while the best previous result for the Cook Islanders was a draw with Lebanon in their only World Cup appearance in 2000. The Tomahawks come into this one in winning form, having upset a Catalans-packed French side in their trial match, while The Cooks were trounced 50-0 by a rampant Kiwis outfit. The Tomahawks will be looking for skipper and creative Parramatta Eels back-rower Joe Paulo to provide some spark, and for Wests Tiger Eddy Pettybourne and Panther Clint Newton to add some go-forward. The team has had little time to gel with just two training sessions but will be hoping experienced coach and current Cowboys assistant Terry Matterson will have been able to work some magic in the two weeks since being appointed.

Former Knight Zeb Taia will be one to watch for The Cooks, along with Panthers playmaker Isaac John. Experienced winger, former Eel and Titan Matt Petersen, also makes his way into the squad from his current base in the Gold Coast competition. Former North Sydney Bears star, and Origin and Kangaroos forward David Fairleigh, will bring plenty of top-line experience to the squad. He has three wins from four games in charge of the national side, including a runners-up finish in the 2009 Pacific Cup. Another standout for The Cooks is Roosters back-rower Dylan Napa (pictured). He may not have spent a huge amount of time on the field in the NRL this year but he sure made an impact in those seven games. He put on plenty of big shots, none bigger than a memorable bone-rattler on Sharks skipper Paul Gallen in a clear sign he will not be overawed by big names or the big stage. Tomahawks ball-runners will no doubt be making sure they know whereabouts Napa is when they’re taking on the line. These minnow v minnow battles can be highly unpredictable but The Cooks have a clear edge in experience and preparation.

Confirmed bets

USA v Cook Islands -11.5 (one unit @ $1.81)

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