Daily tips for October 25

Note: Bets are now listed in three categories on the Last at Cannington blog – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).

A-League (round 3) for October 25

Melbourne Victory (0-2-0) v Brisbane Roar (2-0-0), Etihad Stadium, Melbourne, Friday, October 25, 7.30pm

This promises to be an unforgettable night for Melbourne Victory fans as they farewell coach Ange Postecoglou (pictured) as he prepares to take the helm of Australia’s 2014 World Cup finals campaign. The match stands alone on its merits as the pick of the round three games as league-leaders Brisbane Roar (formerly coached by Postecoglou) take on the Big V. Melbourne Victory have been widely tipped to challenge for silverware this season and, Postecoglou's imminent departure notwithstanding, the Victory should have enough quality remain in contention in 2013-14. This clash also features two teams that love to maintain possession, and try to pass opposition sides to death. As such, the midfield battle will be critical, with the Roar's quintet of Matt McKay, Thomas Broich, Liam Miller, Ivan Franjic and Luke Brattan up against Victory’s foursome; Mark Milligan, Mitch Nichols, James Troisi and Leigh Broxham. Despite the possession game, I’m expecting goals here.

Brisbane head coach Mike Mulvey faces one major selection dilemma with striker Besart Berisha set to miss the match with a hamstring injury. Berisha hurt his hamstring in last week's 4-0 win over Sydney FC and was replaced by Henrique, who scored. The pint-sized Brazilian will be the favourite to start up front against Victory but Mulvey may be tempted to pick Kwame Yeboah instead, as the 19-year-old scored six goals in Brisbane's last four pre-season matches. Postecoglou is likely to hand Kosta Barbarouses his starting debut for Melbourne against the Kiwi striker's former club after the 23-year-old came off the bench in Victory's 2-2 draw with Adelaide United last week. Barbarouses will probably replace Connor Pain in Melbourne's starting XI, while Postecoglou may be tempted to pick Gui Finkler, who is still building his fitness after his knee injury from last season, to improve Victory's creativity in the final third.

Confirmed bet

Melbourne Victory v Brisbane Roar +2.5 (two units @ $1.70)

Leans

Correct score 2-2 $12.00 

Correct score 1-2 $10.00


Racing for October 25 (updated)

Today's highlights

Moonee Valley R3 G2 $220,000 Jeep Don’t Hold Back Fillies Classic (1600m, set weights, 3yo fillies)

Moonee Valley R8 G1 $1 million Sportingbet Manikato Stakes (1200m, WFA)

Horse racing: Moonee Valley (Vic – night), Canterbury (NSW – night), Sunshine Coast (Qld – night), Wangaratta (Vic), Canberra (ACT), Taree (NSW), Rockhampton (Qld). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Goulburn (NSW), Melton (Vic), Wagga (NSW), Globe Derby (SA), Gloucester Park (SA), Kalgoorlie (WA). Greyhound racing: Casino (NSW), Mount Gambier (SA), Bendigo (Vic), The Gardens (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Geelong (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Mandurah (WA).

The opening event of tonight/tomorrow’s 19-race card isn’t far away, and there’ll be some very nervous executives at Moonee Valley who’ll be hoping that the surface stands up to the wear and tear in the lead-up to race 19, the Cox Plate. The track is rated a dead (4) for tonight but I suspect that parts of the track are far worse after almost 30mls of rain on Wednesday, with two days of cold and showery weather since. The rail is back to the true position for the Manikato Stakes meeting and I would caution punters to watch the first three races carefully to gauge the impact of the rain on the fence as the rail may be “off”. All three races feature short-priced favourites, two of which will find the rail without doubt.

But regardless of the track conditions, the feature race looks a very one-sided affair. The key to the Manikato Stakes is tracking the better sprinting horses that can take advantage of the level weights. Barriers also play some hand in which horse will win as the 1200m start can be difficult to win from a wide gate, with only three of the last 11 winners jumping from double-figure barriers. In the past two decades, the favourites have dominated, with 13 out of 20 having placed in the race, and nine of the 13 taking out the main prize: Sepoy (4/5), Hay List (1/2), Gold Edition (9/4), Miss Andretti (4/1), Spark Of Life (9/10), Sunline (15/8), Never Undercharge (9/10), King Marauding (7/4) and Strawberry Road (3/1).

Punters might also consider the mares, as they have started to make the Manikato Stakes their own over the past decade. Six of the fairer sex have claimed Manikato Stakes honours in that time – Sunline (2000), Piavonic (2001), Siren (2012), Spinning Hill (2002-2003), Miss Andretti (2006) and Gold Edition (2007). The 4yo mare #10 Samaready (pictured) ticks all these boxes, and more. She won in identical circumstances at the Valley in the Moir on September 27 (track, distance, WFA, grade, under lights and dead track) and will simply win if she and jockey Craig Newitt replicate that run. She’s won six of eight and has been unplaced just once. The 7yo gelding and international superstar #1 Lucky Nine is a clear second pick, while it’s worth having a small saver on #5 Shamexpress.

Confirmed bets (tonight)

Moonee Valley R6 #4 Queenstown (E/W 1x4) 1st ($2.60/$1.60) 

Moonee Valley R7 #7 Post D’France (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($1.80) 

Moonee Valley R8 #10 Samaready WIN (two units) LOSE (U/P) 

Canterbury R7 #9 Wild Journey (E/W) LOSE (U/P) 

Sunshine Coast R7 #3 Epsilon (win) 1st ($1.70) 

Singapore R3 #1 Golden Rabbit (E/W) 1st ($7.20/$2.30)

Leans (tonight)

Moonee Valley R2 #1 Black Cash (win) LOSE (U/P) 

Moonee Valley R3 #6 Scratchy Bottom LOSE (4th) 

Moonee Valley R6 #10 Freezy (place) LOSE (U/P) 

Moonee Valley R8 #5 Shamexpress (E/W) LOSE (U/P)  

Canterbury R3 #6 Monte Shogun (E/W) LOSE (4th) 

Canterbury R7 #1 Al Dhafra (E/W) 2nd ($4.20) 

Sunshine Coast R4 #1 Be Fair (win) LOSE (U/P)

Confirmed bets (today)

Rockhampton R5 #1 Fundido (E/W 1x2) 1st ($3.60/$1.60)

Wangaratta R7 #10 Brave Spur (E/W 1x2) 1st ($5.90/$1.90)

Leans (today)

Wangaratta R3 #9 Artie Edna (E/W 1x3) 1st ($3.60/$1.60)

Taree R4 #12 Stay Positive (E/W) 1st ($4.00/$1.70)

Taree R6 #2 Falklands (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($1.50)
Rockhampton R3 #2 Four Iron (E/W 1x3) LOSE (U/P)

CFL (week 18) for October 25

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (3-13) @ Toronto Argonauts (10-6), Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON, Friday, October 25, 10.40am

One of the great betting aspects of the Canadian Football League is sides often play each other on a short turnaround, and that’s the case here as Winnipeg meets Toronto again for the second time in a week. The Argonauts scraped past the Blue Bombers 26-20 in Winnipeg last week and this match-up is not only a chance for Toronto to clinch the top spot in the East Division and its vital accompanying first-round playoff bye, it’s also a chance to fix some of the team’s problems ahead of the post-season. The Argos’ offence was clicking at an incredible pace early in the season, led by a passing game that saw quarterback Ricky Ray putting up record-breaking numbers, but they’ve struggled in recent weeks both in the air and on the ground. Heading into this week, Toronto was last in the league with just 81 rushing first downs and 82.6 rushing yards per game. Chris Jones’ defensive unit was a huge part of the Argos’ 2012 Grey Cup triumph, but they’ve also been notably subpar in most categories this season.

The Blue Bombers meanwhile are coming off what they consider to be their second straight strong performance, holding their own with the top team in the East a week after stunning the Montreal Alouettes 34-27 on the road. Rookie quarterback Max Hall had his first win as a starter against the Als, and almost made it two straight against the Argos but fell short in the last minute. The Bombers rallied from the large first-half deficit in that game to pull to within three points, but a number of costly mistakes – some that could be chalked up to just bad luck – thwarted the late surge. Newcomer Mike Sims-Walker impressed in his first career CFL game, tying a game-high eight passes for 137 yards, including an impressive drive-extending catch along the sideline in the fourth quarter. On defence, Winnipeg also showed significant improvement from the first time it played Toronto, when Ray broke his own record for single-game completion percentage on 19-20 passing in a 35-19 win.

Confirmed bet

Winnipeg @ Toronto +53 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (21-36)

Lean

Winnipeg +10.5 @ Toronto $1.91 LOSE (21-36)

College Football (week 9) for October 25

SEC: Kentucky Wildcats (1-5, 0-3 SEC) @ Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-3, 0-2 SEC), Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS, Friday, October 25, 10.30am

There are two College Football game scheduled for Thursday night in the US, with the featured game featuring Mississippi State as they seek a fifth straight victory over Kentucky in SEC cross-divisional play. The Bulldogs are after the first five-game winning streak by either team in the series, in which the past five meetings have been decided by an average of eight points. The Bulldogs have been a bit of a one-man show on offense, with QB Dak Prescott (pictured) leading the team with 457 rushing yards and eight touchdowns to go along with 890 passing yards and three TDs. Prescott splits time with Tyler Russell, who missed time with a concussion but has played the past two games and threw for 248 yards and two TDs in those contests. The defence was torched in a 59-26 loss to LSU on October 5 but has held its own against dangerous offences in losses to Oklahoma State and Auburn. Mississippi State has alternated losses and wins all season and shoots for its first winning streak after a 21-20 victory over Bowling Green on October 12.

The Wildcats have dropped four straight (all against teams that were ranked in the top 25 at the time) and had a week off following a 48-7 trouncing from No. 1 Alabama on October 12.  The Wildcats expected quarterback Jalen Whitlow to miss at least one game after spraining his left ankle against Alabama, but he returned to practice on Monday and could be ready to start. Fellow sophomore Maxwell Smith will get the nod if Whitlow can't play, taking the reins of an offence that has been balanced, but far from explosive. Kentucky has been tough against the pass but allows 213.3 rushing yards per game – 107th among the 123 FBS teams, which might spell trouble against the Bulldogs' strong ground game. The Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their past seven at Mississippi State but are 0-4 ATS in their past four meetings. Kentucky has also been bold on fourth down, going for it 13 times and converting nine (ranked eighth among teams with at least 10 attempts).

Confirmed bets

Kentucky @ Mississippi State -54.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (22-28)

Marshall -10 @ Mid Tennessee State (one unit @ $1.95) LOSE (49-51)

Lean

Marshall @ Mid Tennessee State -56.5 $1.91 LOSE (49-51)

NHL for October 25

Vancouver Canucks (6-4-1, 13 pts) @ New Jersey Devils (1-5-3), 5 pts), Prudential Center, Newark, NJ, Friday, October 25, 10.10am

After doing all the right things while beating the rival New York Rangers 4-0 on Sunday, the New Jersey Devils were forced back to the drawing board following an ugly 4-1 loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets on Wednesday, and things get little easier here as they host Vancouver. There will be far less fanfare surrounding Cory Schneider’s second start against his former Canuck teammates than the first just over two weeks ago, leaving him to focus solely on helping the Devils bust out of their slump. New Jersey will also be without captain Bryce Salvador here. The Canucks traded Schneider to the Devils (1-5-3) on draft night for the No. 9 overall pick, and he made 29 saves against his former team October 8 before Mike Santorelli deflected a Jason Garrison shot past him in overtime in New Jersey’s 3-2 road defeat. Schneider is 1-3-1 with a 2.21 goals-against average and .917 save percentage in five starts for New Jersey this season. Martin Brodeur (0-2-2, 3.40 GAA, .865 save percentage) is seeking his first win.

The Canucks are 3-1-1 on their swing after earning a sloppy 5-4 overtime victory over the New York Islanders on Wednesday. They trailed 2-0 and 3-2 before Brad Richardson’s goal 2:16 into the extra session. Ryan Kesler and Daniel Sedin each finished with a goal and an assist, while Chris Higgins and Henrik Sedin also scored. Henrik Sedin (pictured) has three goals and four assists during a six-game point streak. The Canucks lost wing Jannik Hansen with seven minutes left in the first period when he crashed into the end boards with Islanders defenseman Brian Strait. Vancouver concludes its trip against St. Louis tomorrow. Roberto Luongo made 28 saves Tuesday and has won his last five starts with a 0.79 GAA against New Jersey, but it’s unclear if he’ll be in net for this contest. Vancouver coach John Tortorella also has David Booth available after he made him a healthy scratch in the win against the Islanders and dressed a seventh defenseman, Andrew Alberts.

Confirmed bets

Canucks WIN @ Devils (two units @ $1.83) WIN (3-2)

Rangers @ Flyers WIN NT (one unit @ $2.05) WIN (1-2)

Ducks WIN @ Canadiens (one unit @ $2.00) LOSE (1-4)

Grand Salami -55.5 (one unit @ $1.80) WIN (55)

Leans

Canucks @ Devils -5 $1.83 PUSH (1-4)
Sharks WIN $1.91 @ Bruins LOSE (1-2)

Blackhawks @ Lightning WIN $1.95 WIN (5-6)

Jets @ Predators WIN $1.74 WIN (2-3)

Hurricanes WIN $2.22 @ Wild LOSE (1-3)

Flames WIN $2.25 @ Stars LOSE (1-5)

Capitals @ Oilers -5.5 $1.95 WIN (4-1)

Coyotes WIN $2.25 @ Kings LOSE (4-7)

NFL (week 8) for October 25

Carolina Panthers (3-3, 1-2 away) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6, 0-3 home), Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL, Friday, October 25, 11.30am

While the Carolina Panthers have their sights on moving above the .500-mark for the first time in five seasons, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would be happy with a win – any win! The visiting Panthers look for a third consecutive victory while trying to keep the Buccaneers winless Thursday night. Not since finishing 12-4 in 2008 (three seasons before QB Cam Newton became the face of the franchise) has Carolina (3-3) been above .500. After outscoring Minnesota and St. Louis 65-25 over the last two weeks and visiting a Tampa Bay (0-6) team off to its worst start since 2009, the Panthers appear to be in good shape to again rise above mediocrity. Newton has put up huge numbers in the past but they haven't translated into the win column. He has been highly efficient in back-to-back victories over St Louis and Minnesota, completing 35-of-43 passes for four touchdowns and zero interceptions while posting passer ratings of 136.3 and 143.4, respectively. Carolina’s defence has also play a pivotal role in the resurgence, allowing an average of 243 total yards over the past four games and yielding one TD in each of the past two.

An already-bleak season took another turn for the worse for the Buccaneers on Monday when it was revealed that second-year running back Doug Martin suffered a torn shoulder muscle in Sunday's 31-23 loss to Atlanta. Martin, who rushed for 1454 yards and 11 touchdowns last season as a rookie, will be sidelined indefinitely and could be done for the season. That puts more pressure on rookie quarterback Mike Glennon (pictured), who will be making his fourth career start. Three of Tampa Bay’s losses have come by a combined six points, so circumstances are not as dire as the record indicates despite the reported friction between the players and coach Greg Schiano. Although Martin is the focal point of the offense, he has struggled in his second season and been held to 67 rushing yards or fewer in four of the six games. Glennon is developing a nice rapport with wideout Vincent Jackson, who has 19 receptions for 252 yards and four TDs in the past two games. The favourite is 9-2 ATS in the past 11 meetings between these sides while the ‘over’ is 4-1 in the past five clashes.

Confirmed bet

Game total +40 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (31-13)

Lean

Tampa Bay +7.5 $1.78 LOSE (31-13)

MLB (World Series) for October 25

Game 2 (Boston leads 1-0): St Louis Cardinals @ Boston Red Sox, Fenway Park, Boston, MT, Friday, October 25, 11.10am

The St Louis Cardinals showed some uncharacteristic nerves in the field during the first game of the World Series with those errors proving costly. The Cardinals will aim to clean up their defence in Game 2 at Fenway Park. The Red Sox are riding a nine-game World Series winning streak and showed no jitters while jumping on top early in Game 1. Mike Napoli followed an error with a three-run double in the first inning of Game 1 while Boston had the aid of another error in a two-run second to jump in front of St Louis. One of the best plays the Cardinals did make in the early innings came from Carlos Beltran, who reached into the bullpen in right field to rob David Ortiz of a grand slam. Beltran suffered a right rib contusion on that catch and was forced to leave the game, though, leaving his status in doubt for Game 2. The Red Sox are 9-0 in their last 9 World Series games and 6-1 in John Lackey's last seven home starts.

Cardinals RH Michael Wacha (3-0, 0.43 ERA) was the NLCS MVP after tossing 13 2/3 scoreless innings over two starts against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The 22-year-old rookie allowed just one run on eight hits over 21 innings this post-season while striking out 22 and issuing four walks. Wacha made both NLCS starts at home and posted a 4.34 ERA in five games (three starts) on the road during the regular season while going 3-2. The Cardinals are 4-0 in Wacha’s last four starts. The Red Sox RH Lackey (pictured, 2-0, 3.00) was moved up to the no. 2 spot for the World Series after dominating Detroit through 6 2/3 scoreless innings in the ALCS. The veteran struck out eight and did not walk a batter in that turn, outdueling Justin Verlander in a 1-0 triumph. Lackey last pitched in the World Series as a rookie for the Los Angeles Angels in 2002, when he went 1-0 with a 4.38 ERA in three games (two starts). I’m expecting Game 2 to be much tighter than the series opener.

Confirmed bet

Boston WIN (two units @ $1.85) LOSE (4-2)

Lean

Game total -7 $2.00 WIN (4-2)

Football (Europa League matchday 3) for October 25

Group B: GNK Dinamo Zagreb v PSV Eindhoven, Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb, Croatia, Friday, October 25, 6.10am

It’s been a tough week for Dinamo Zagreb, with the departure of coach Branko Ivankovic after the clubs failings in European competitions with the defeat to Hadjuk Split last weekend proving the final straw. Sporting director Zoran Mamić has been put in charge for the remainder of the year, with Damir Krznar and Igor Cvitanović working as his assistants. Capped six times as a defender, Mamić started and ended his playing career at Dinamo either side of a long spell in Germany, where he represented the likes of VfL Bochum 1848 and Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Dinamo have yet to make it through the group stage of this competition in five attempts and are looking to avoid a third successive home defeat in Europe this season. They kicked off Group B with a 2-1 home loss to FC Chornomorets Odesa and were then beaten 3-0 at PFC Ludogorets Razgrad on matchday 2.

It’s also been an up and down campaign in Europe for PSV so far, with one win and one defeat in the Europa League leaving them second in their group. PSV also enter this game on the back of a defeat, after they wasted chance after chance against Groningen, before going down 1-0. There is a major boost for the Eindhoven side pre-match as Luciano Narsingh (pictured) returns to the first team squad for the first time since December. The winger has recovered from injury, and has starred in several performances for the club’s reserves. PSV are the only side to have competed in every edition of the UEFA Europa League group stage since the competition’s inception in 2009-10, missing out on the round of 32 for the first time last season when they finished behind FC Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk and Napoli in Group F. Given the upheaval in the Dinamo camp, PSV look good things here.

Confirmed bets

Dinamo Zagreb v PSV WIN (two units @ $2.05) LOSE (0-0)

Eintracht Frankfurt WIN (two units @ $1.55) v Maccabi Tel Aviv WIN (2-0)

Dynamo Kiev WIN v FC Thun (two units @ $1.44) WIN (3-0)

Wigan v Rubin Kazan +2.5 (one unit @ $2.00) LOSE (1-1)

Fiorentina -1.5 (one unit @ $1.94) v Pandurii Targu-Jiu WIN (3-0)

Sheriff Tiraspol v Tottenham Hotspur to nil (one unit @ $1.75) WIN (0-2)

FC Chornomorets Odesa v Ludogorets Razgrad -2.5 (one unit @ $1.62) WIN (0-1)

FC Red Bull Salzburg WIN (one unit @ $1.50) v Standard Liège WIN (2-1)

Leans

Anzhi Makhachkala v Tromsø DNB $4.50 LOSE (1-0)

Apollon Limassol (double chance) $2.25 v Lazio WIN (0-0)

Paços de Ferreira (double chance) $2.15 v FC Dnipro LOSE (0-2)

Bordeaux WIN $1.95 v Apoel Nicosia WIN (2-1)

Trabzonspor WIN $1.72 v Legia Warsaw WIN (2-0)
SV Zulte Waregem WIN $1.75 v NK Maribor LOSE (1-3)
Swansea -1 $2.20 v Kuban Krasnodar LOSE (1-1)

Lyon v HNK Rijeka BTS $2.00 LOSE (1-0)

FC Red Bull Salzburg v Standard Liège BTS $1.62 WIN (2-1)

Valencia CF v FC St Gallen +2.5 $1.83 WIN (5-1)

FC Chornomorets Odesa v Ludogorets Razgrad (correct score 1-0) $7.00 LOSE (0-1)

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