Daily tips for October 20

Racing for October 20

Today's highlights

Horsham R6 $50,000 Miller Contractors & Plant Hire Horsham Cup (1800m, handicap)

Seymour R7 Listed $150,000 Darley Seymour Cup (1600m, handicap)

Horse racing: Horsham (Vic), Gosford (NSW), Port Lincoln (SA), Bunbury (WA), Sunshine Coast (Qld), Seymour (Vic), Nowra (NSW), Hobart (Tas). Harness racing: Cranbourne (Vic), Launceston (Tas), Parkes (NSW). Greyhound racing: Albion Park (Qld), Canberra (ACT), Healesville (Vic), Mount Gambier (SA), Sale (Vic), Sandown Park (Vic), Strathalbyn (SA), Wagga (NSW).

I had the mixed pleasure of being on-course for yesterday’s Caulfield Cup – a great card, sensational weather and bumper crowd certainly brought a smile to the Melbourne Racing Club bigwigs. While I appreciate the commercial merits of running the feature race at the end of the card, the reality isn’t pretty. Not only were the bulk of the crowd into their seventh or eighth hour of merriment by the time the Cup was run, there was also a one-hour gap between races 9 and 10. I love a monster day at the races as much as anyone but, as one of the on-course officials muttered as the horses were being loaded for the Cup, “I’ve never seen so many maggoted people in my life”!

The argument of moving the race for the benefits of the Seven Network also makes little sense. It was so late in the broadcast that Nick Hall and Fawkner had barely made their way back into the mounting yard when the broadcast broke for Betty Bouffant and the 6pm news. If the MRC’s aim is to keep people drinking and punting, then a 5.45pm Caulfield Cup start is a winner. And a word of advice for the pimply-faced late-teens who splurge on an opp shop suit before the Spring Carnival each year. There is no need for you to fall to the ground in a pre-school tantrum if you’re unable to get a bet on before the jump. It’s certainly not the fault of the poor tote operator towards who you direct your venom. “You’ve just lost me five grand,” one nasty little toerag told me yesterday. Shut up idiot, and buy some Clearasil.

Daily tips

Seymour R3 #5 Nautical (E/W 1x3) 1st ($2.40/$1.20)

Seymour R4 #9 Jaja Malu (E/W 1x2) LOSE (U/P)

Seymour R5 #8 Projects (E/W) 1st ($6.40/$2.40)

Seymour R9 #16 Unscrupulous (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Gosford R1 #2 Easter Island (E/W 1x3) 1st ($2.50/$1.70)

Gosford R7 #1 Magnetron (win) 1st ($1.70)

Horsham R2 #2 Fresnel (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.40)

Horsham R3 #3 French Hussler (E/W 1x3) 1st ($3.20/$1.50)

Nowra R1 #1 Pin ‘Em Down (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.70)

Nowra R8 #4 Power Ranger (win) 1st ($1.70)

Sunshine Coast R2 #3 Red Hot Dazzler (E/W 1x2) 3rd (NTD)

Port Lincoln R1 #1 Lewis Street (win) LOSE (2nd)

Hobart R5 #4 Geegees Velvet (E/W 1x4) 1st ($5.00/$2.10)

NHL for October 20

Detroit Red Wings (6-2-0, 12 pts) @ Phoenix Coyotes (4-2-2, 10 pts), Jobing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ, Sunday, October 20, 12.10pm

Thanks to the stellar play of Jonas Gustavsson, the Detroit Red Wings haven’t missed a beat over the opening weeks of the NHL season without their starting goalie. Now they’ll likely have to overcome the loss of another key defensive player to get their revenge on the Phoenix Coyotes. While Jimmy Howard (pictured) may return, the visiting Red Wings are expected to be without Niklas Kronwall as they try to extend their winning streak to five against a Phoenix team that dealt them their last loss. Gustavsson continued his outstanding stretch while filling in for Howard when he stopped 38 of 40 shots in a 4-2 victory at Colorado that ended the hosts’ unbeaten start. Howard, however, might be able to get back between the pipes as the Red Wings (6-2-0) go for their fifth straight win, which would be their longest streak since a six-game run from February 8-19, 2012. Kronwall (one goal, six points) was hit from behind in the first period on Thursday and left on a stretcher. He was diagnosed with a mild concussion, but stayed with the team as it flew to Phoenix.

Phoenix has scored five times on 69 shots in overtime and shootout losses in its past two games. The Coyotes (4-2-2) haven’t fallen in regulation since a 6-1 loss at the New York Islanders on October 8, but they allowed Anaheim to score the game-tying goal with 2:02 remaining Friday on the way to a 3-2 shootout loss. Mike Ribeiro, who signed a five-year deal in the offseason to be Phoenix’s No. 1 center, was able to extend his points’ streak to five games with an assist. The Coyotes were the last team to beat Detroit on October 10 when Michael Stone and Antoine Vermette scored in the third period of a 4-2 win at Joe Louis Arena. Mike Smith had 28 saves in that meeting and 37 stops on Friday, though he could give way to back-up Thomas Greiss in the second of back-to-back games. In his only start, Greiss finished with 36 saves in a 2-1 win at Philadelphia on October 11. Whoever gets the nod will have to contain a Detroit team that has totaled 14 goals while converting 6 of 16 power-play opportunities during its winning streak.

Suggested bet: Detroit WIN (two units @ $1.83) LOSE, Phoenix TT -2.5 (one unit @ $1.95) LOSE (2-5)

Other tips

Canucks @ Penguins WIN $1.67 WIN (3-4)

Oilers WIN $2.55 WIN @ Senators -5.5 $1.96 WIN (3-1)

Avalanche WIN $1.70 WIN @ Sabres TT -2.5 $1.83 WIN (4-2)

Predators @ Canadiens WIN $1.65 LOSE -5 $2.10 WIN (2-1)

Bruins @ Lightning WIN $1.95 LOSE +5.5 $2.15 LOSE (5-0)

Wild WIN $1.77 LOSE @ Panthers -5 $2.00 WIN (1-2)

Rangers @ Devils WIN $1.91 WIN -5 $1.83 WIN (0-4)

Hurricanes @ Islanders WIN $1.77 LOSE (4-3)

Blue Jackets @ Capitals WIN $1.77 WIN -5.5 $1.77 WIN (1-4)

Maple Leafs WIN $2.50 @ Blackhawks LOSE (1-3)

Flames @ Sharks 1P +1.5 WIN (0-2) $1.84 -1.5 $2.25 WIN (3-6)

Stars @ Kings WIN $1.55 WIN (2-5)

CFL (week 17) for October 20

BC Lions (9-6) @ Saskatchewan Roughriders (10-5), Mosaic Stadium at Taylor Field, Regina, SK, Sunday, October 20, 10.10am

This should be a cracker. The Saskatchewan Roughriders and BC Lions will battle for position in the West Division playoff picture when they meet in Regina here. The Lions trail Saskatchewan by two points for second place in the division, which guarantees a home playoff game, while the winner here will claim the season series and hold the tiebreaker advantage. Saskatchewan has won its past two games, while BC has stumbled to two straight losses. Roughriders slotback Chris Getzlaf (pictured) is within 89 receiving yards of tying his career-best mark of 1071, set in 2011. Sheets has 1408 rushing yards, second in the league to Calgary running back Jon Cornish. Quarterback Darian Durant has a career-best 29 touchdown passes this season as part of 3765 passing yards. The ‘under’ is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings and 4-0 in the Roughriders past four games overall.

One of the Lions defeats came at home against the Roughriders, who have looked rejuvenated by the return of running back Kory Sheets. Sheets ran for 80 yards and caught six passes for another 41 yards against BC and added 106 rushing yards last week against the Edmonton Eskimos, suggesting he is still in his early season form. Sheets will be in tough to record those totals again against the Lions, who have limited opponents to an average of 90.5 rushing yards with their stingy defence. Slotback Nick Moore is 34 receiving yards away from his first 1000-yard season. Running back Andrew Harris has 791 rushing yards as part of 1233 yards from scrimmage and should expect to see more carries while starting quarterback Travis Lulay is still sidelined. Linebacker Adam Bighill’s 80 tackles and eight sacks lead the team.

Suggested bets: Saskatchewan -3.5 (three units @ $1.91) WIN, game total -51 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (14-35)

Other tips

Toronto Argonauts -6.5 LOSE @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers -53.5 WIN (26-20)

MLB playoffs for October 20

ALCS game 6 (Boston leads 3-2): Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox, Fenway Park, Boston, MT, Sunday, October 20, 11.10am

A victory in Game 6 here will eliminate the defending AL champions Detroit and send the Red Sox to their third World Series since 2004. Tigers RH Max Scherzer will face Boston’s RH Clay Buchholz, a repeat of the Game 2 match-up that the Red Sox won 6-5. Justin Verlander will start Game 7 tomorrow if the Red Sox don’t wrap up the series in six games. Detroit third baseman Miguel Cabrera isn’t displaying his MVP-caliber form due to groin and abdominal injuries and first baseman Prince Fielder has played 17 consecutive post-season games without an RBI. Boston’s Mike Napoli (pictured) has been a force with a .375 average and two homers in the series, while designated hitter David Ortiz is 2-for-19 – with one of the hits being his memorable game-tying grand slam in Game 2. Four of the five games have been decided by one run, which is one shy of the record for a league championship series (set by the Mets and Braves in the 1999 NLCS).

Scherzer dominated Boston hitters in Game 2, striking out 13 and allowing one run and two hits in seven innings. He departed with a 5-1 lead after 108 pitches before a bullpen meltdown helped the Red Sox rally for an improbable victory. One of Scherzer’s three regular-season losses came at Fenway when he allowed two runs and five hits in seven innings on September 3. The ‘over’ is 7-1-1 in Scherzer’s last nine starts against the Red Sox Buchholz began strongly in Game 2 before wilting – giving up five runs and eight hits in 5 2/3 innings. The Tigers torched him for four runs in the sixth with four extra-base hits, including homers by Cabrera and Alex Avila. Buchholz has a 6.17 ERA and has been torched for three homers in 11 2/3 innings this post-season. The Red Sox are 8-1 in Buchholz’s last nine on five days of rest and 6-1 in his past seven starts against the Tigers.

Suggested bets: Boston WIN (two units @ $1.93) WIN, game total +7 (one unit @ $1.83) PUSH (2-5)

College Football (week 8) for October 20

ACC: 5 Florida State Seminoles (5-0, 3-0 ACC) @ 3 Clemson Tigers (6-0, 4-0 ACC), Memorial Stadium, Clemson, SC, Sunday, October 20, 11am

After Clemson’s great escape against Boston College, the third-ranked Tigers can finally focus on No. 5 Florida State and the Atlantic Coast Conference’s first top-five showdown in eight years. It’s the league’s first match-up of top-five teams since No. 5 Miami defeated third-ranked Virginia Tech 27-7 in 2005. The Seminoles (5-0, 3-0) are well rested and confident, coming off a 63-0 victory over Maryland and then an open date last weekend. Clemson needed a pair of fourth-quarter TDs to remain undefeated. This match-up has determined the division champion in the past four years and this season’s winner will remain a central figure in the national championship discussion. While both teams boast exciting offences (quarterbacks Tajh Boyd and Jameis Winston (pictured) are among the national leaders in several passing categories) they also rank in the top 10 in scoring defence with Florida State (12 points per game) third and Clemson (16.2) 10th. The Seminoles haven’t won at Clemson since 2001 and the home team has won 10 of the past 11 meetings. Florida State rallied in the second half for a 49-37 victory last year in Tallahassee.

Winston has been immune to typical freshman mistakes as he ranks second in the nation in passing efficiency and has thrown only two interceptions, helping the Seminoles lead the nation with just three giveaways. Florida State ranks fourth in the country in total offense (549 yards per game) and has racked up 400 or more total yards in 14 of its last 19 contests. The defence has been equally impressive and is coming off its best showing of the season in a 63-0 rout of Maryland two weeks ago, holding the Terrapins to 234 total yards. With Boyd (1783 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, two interceptions) back at the helm, the Tigers' offence has been everything it was expected to be. Boyd boasts the best career passing efficiency mark in ACC history and has a bevy of receiving options as 11 players have caught touchdown passes. The Tigers’ defense has been a surprising strength, though, holding five straight opponents to 14 points or fewer and limiting Boston College star Andre Williams to 70 yards on 24 carries in a 24-14 victory last week.

Suggested bets: Game total +64 (four units @ $1.91) WIN, Florida State -3.5 (one unit @ $1.95) WIN (51-14)

Other tips

Navy @ Toledo -9 $1.91 LOSE +-54.5 $1.94 WIN (44-45)

Ohio @ Eastern Michigan +55 $1.91 WIN (56-28)

SMU @ Memphis -3 $1.91 LOSE (34-29)

Connecticut @ Cincinnati +45.5 $1.91 WIN (16-41)

Michigan State @ Purdue -44 $1.94 WIN (0-14)

North Texas @ Louisiana Tech -53 $1.91 WIN (28-13)

BYU @ Houston +9.5 $1.94 WIN (47-46)

Georgia State @ Texas State -16.5 $1.89 LOSE (17-24)

Akron @ Miami Ohio +46 $1.94 LOSE (24-17)

TCU +7.5 $1.89 LOSE @ Oklahoma State -52 $1.94 WIN (10-24)

Texas Tech @ West Virginia +58 $1.94 WIN (37-27)

Florida @ Missouri +3 $1.93 WIN (17-36)

Iowa State @ Baylor -33 $1.93 WIN (7-71)

Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan +14.5 $1.93 LOSE (38-17)

Iowa @ Ohio State -17.5 $1.94 LOSE (24-34)

Oklahoma @ Kansas +22 $1.94 WIN +49.5 $1.94 WIN (34-19)

Auburn @ Texas A&M +72.5 $1.94 WIN (45-41)

Minnesota +12 $1.94 WIN @ Northwestern +53 $1.94 LOSE (20-17)

Army @ Temple -2.5 $1.87 WIN (14-33)

Kent State +7 $1.94 @ South Alabama LOSE (21-38)

Umass @ Buffalo -19.5 $1.94 WIN (3-32)

LSU -10 $1.98 LOSE @ Ole Miss -60.5 $1.94 WIN (24-27)

Rice @ New Mexico +57 $1.94 WIN (45-19)

UNLV @ Fresno State -24 $1.94 PUSH (14-38)

Oregon State -10.5 $1.89 @ California WIN (49-17)

Boise State @ Nevada +68.5 $1.94 LOSE (17-34)

Southern Miss @ East Carolina -20.5 $1.91 WIN (14-55)

UCLA @ Stanford -4.5 $1.94 WIN +54 $1.94 LOSE (10-24)

Washington State @ Oregon +72 $1.94 WIN (38-62)

Charleston Southern +21 $1.91 @ Colorado LOSE (10-43)

Washington @ Arizona State -3.5 $2.03 WIN (24-53)

Maryland -5 $1.91 @ Wake Forest LOSE (10-34)

EPL for October 20

Swansea City (2-1-4) v Sunderland (0-1-6), Liberty Stadium, Swansea, Wales, Sunday, October 20, 1am

The Black Cats, with Gus Poyet (pictured) in the dugout for the first time, may not have won a game this season, but I love the value around them as they take on a Swansea side that has gone eight without victory at home in the EPL. After the flamboyant and unorthodox style of Paolo Di Canio, Poyet inherits a Sunderland side rock bottom after their worst ever start to a season. Already six points adrift of safety having lost their last five games in a row, the road to recovery is a steep one. The Uruguayan’s first task is to bolster Sunderland’s defence, which has conceded 14 goals in the last five outings. His Brighton side boasted the best defensive record in the Championship last season. If Steven Fletcher returns ahead of schedule after a shoulder injury, attacking options will improve dramatically. Top scorer last season, two of the Scot’s 11 league goals came in a 2-2 draw at the Liberty.

Surprisingly, only goal difference is keeping Swansea out of the relegation zone. They have played four sides from the top six but they do need to sort out their home form if they’re to avoid being sucked in to a season of struggle. The Swans last home win in the Premier League was on March 2. Eight games since have brought a measly three points. Michael Laudrup’s side has conceded at least two goals in each of their three home league games so far this season. Three of the four Premier League games played between the sides have ended in draws, Sunderland’s 2-0 home win in January 2012 being the exception. Sunderland has only scored in two of eight top-flight meetings with Swansea while no side has conceded more than the Black Cats this season (16) – only Stoke (four) have scored fewer than the Wearsiders’ five. That said, I have a strong bounce-back factor at play here and expect that Sunderland will take at least a point back to the north-east.

Suggested bets: Game total +2.5 (2.5 units @ $1.80) WIN, Sunderland double chance (1.5 units @ $2.40) LOSE (4-0)

Other tips

Newcastle v Liverpool WIN $1.83 LOSE (2-2)

Manchester United v Southampton BTS $1.70 WIN (1-1)

Arsenal -2 $2.43 WIN v Norwich City +3.5 $2.50 WIN (4-1)

Stoke City v West Bromwich Albion DRAW $3.10 WIN, correct score 1-1 $6.50 LOSE (0-0)

Chelsea v Cardiff City +2.5 $1.72 WIN, correct score 2-0 $6.50 LOSE (4-1)

Everton WIN $1.55 WIN v Hull City +2.5 $1.91 WIN (2-1)

West Ham (double chance) $2.15 LOSE v Manchester City +2.5 $1.62 WIN (1-3)

International Rules Series for October 20

First Test: Ireland v Australia, Breffni Park, Cavan, County Cavan, Ireland, Sunday, October 20, 5am

It’s just seven years since Ireland and Australia attracted a record crowd for any sports event ever played at Croke Park in Dublin. However, the halcyon days of the hybrid International Rules Series that attracted a crowd of more than 82,000 people are well in the past. After a gap year in 2012 the International Rules Series has rolled around again, and once more it’s accompanied by the usual debate about its future. Up until 2008 the hybrid game always seemed to be just one punch away from oblivion. A rule brought in where a red card or foul play might carry over into domestic games seemed to work, and we have not witnessed anything like the scenes that featured in that 2006 series. The last two renewals of the Cormac McAnallen Cup have been unpalatable, lacking the balance to make them compelling on any sporting level. In 2010 the contests were more reminiscent of a netball game where the sides decided not to risk tackling at all, making it a very dull spectacle for the crowds in Limerick and Dublin.

Many of the top brass in the GAA were disappointed when Australia announced that they would be sending a panel made up of indigenous players only for these Tests. It seemed to suggest that the AFL were continuing the wind-down of the series by restricting the eligibility criteria. Australian Indigenous All Stars coach Michael O’Loughlin named Daniel Wells as captain (one of only three of the squad who have played the game before). Paul Earley’s Ireland squad certainly have the upper hand in terms of experience with Seán Cavanagh set to win his 11th cap in Cavan while Finian Hanley and Ciarán McGeever have both played in three series apiece as well. Carlton and Laois forward Zac Tuohy is the only AFL-based player in the Irish squad but Dublin’s Ciarán Kilkenny spent four months at Hawthorn before returning home and his style is perfectly suited to this code. I have a small lean to the Aussies but the game total offers terrific value based on the history of this game and recent series in Ireland.

Suggested bets: Game total +87.5 (two units @ $1.88) WIN, Australia -2.5 (one unit @ $1.90) LOSE (57-35)

Note: All times quoted on the Last at Cannington blog are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT)

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