Daily tips for October 30

Note: Bets are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).


Racing for October 30

Today’s highlights

Bendigo R8 Listed $240,000 Jayco Bendigo Cup (2400m, handicap)

Horse racing: Bendigo (Vic), Warwick Farm (NSW), Eagle Farm (Qld), Balaklava (SA), Ascot (WA), Launceston (Tas – night). Harness racing: Bathurst (NSW), Redcliffe (Qld), Ballarat (Vic). Greyhound racing: The Meadows (Vic), Angle Park (SA), The Gardens (NSW), Geelong (Vic), Richmond (NSW), Albion Park (Qld), Cranbourne (Vic), Ballarat (Vic), Bulli (NSW), Rockhampton (Qld), Cannington (WA).

A year is a long time in racing. On this day in 2012, Puissance De Lune streeted the field to win the Bendigo Cup by eight lengths. He went on to spend much of the year as pre-post Melbourne Cup favourite only for his Spring campaign to be derailed in Saturday’s Cox Plate. I’m not expecting #7 Sertorius to win by eight lengths but he looks ideally placed to take out this afternoon’s $240,000 Jayco Bendigo Cup. He’s fourth-up here and was second to Pakal in the Cranbourne Cup (2025m) at his most recent run. However, the 6yo gelding is more suited to the staying test here. Ryan Maloney (who stays aboard for Freshwater Creek duo Jamie Edwards – pictured with Sertorius thanks to the Geelong Advertiser – and Bruce Elkington) will carry 2.5 kgs less here and gets the ideal jump from barrier 5. #9 Verdant deserves respect after his runner-up finish in the Geelong Cup while #5 Massiyn, from the Williams camp, is a curiosity and worth a saver based on his European form.

Confirmed bets

Bendigo R8 #7 Sertorius (E/W 1x2) 1st ($3.80/$1.80)

Warwick Farm R1 #1 Got The Goss (E/W 1x3) 1st ($2.10/$1.30)

Warwick Farm R6 #3 Triple Fortune (win) LOSE (2nd)
Eagle Farm R7 #4 Rock Academy (win) LOSE (3rd)
Ascot R6 #6 Dark Delight (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.40)

Leans

Bendigo R1 #10 Outlandish (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.80)

Bendigo R2 #7 Dehere Cat (E/W 1x2) LOSE (U/P)

Bendigo R8 #5 Massiyn (E/W) 2nd ($3.00)

Bendigo R9 #2 Gottino (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Warwick Farm R5 #4 Petrify (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($1.70)
Eagle Farm R3 #3 Beijing Dancer (E/W 1x2) LOSE (4th)

Eagle Farm R6 #1 The Sixties (E/W 1x2) 3rd (NTD)

Balaklava R6 #2 Free The Wind (win) LOSE (2nd)
Ascot R5 #6 Decreed (E/W) 3rd ($3.20)

Harness racing tip: Ballarat R5 #1 Shakapac (win)

Greyhound racing tip: Cannington R5 #1 Bingle Monelli (win)

NHL for October 30

Anaheim Ducks (9-3-0, 18pts) @ Philadelphia Flyers (3-7-0), 6pts), Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA, Wednesday, October 30, 10.10am

Although they’re missing key elements, the Anaheim Ducks are finding some chemistry on their longest road trip of the season. The short-handed Ducks will try for their third straight win when they visit a Philadelphia Flyers team that seems to have moved past the worst start in franchise history. Following consecutive losses to open this eight-game trip, Anaheim (9-3-0) bounced back with a 2-1 victory over Ottawa on Friday before beating Columbus 4-3 on Sunday. The wins, however, have been costly for the Ducks. They're missing Jakob Silfverberg, who is expected to be out at least a month after a slash from Ottawa’s Jared Cowen broke his hand. The forward got off to an outstanding start to his first season in Anaheim with four goals and three assists. The Ducks also have to move on without Saku Koivu after the center was knocked unconscious by the Blue Jackets’ Brandon Dubinsky. Koivu, who has two goals, has returned to Anaheim for tests. The Ducks, though, still have leading scorer Corey Perry. The right wing scored his sixth goal on Sunday.

Rookie Frederik Andersen or Jonas Hiller will get the start against a Philadelphia team looking to build on its season-best scoring effort in a 5-2 road win over the New York Islanders on Sunday. The Flyers, averaging 1.8 goals, hadn’t scored more than twice in any of their first nine games. Vincent Lecavalier provided them with a spark Saturday with his seventh career hat trick. After a franchise-worst 1-7 start, Philadelphia has a chance to win three straight as it faces the Ducks for the first time since Claude Giroux’s overtime goal gave the Flyers a 4-3 win in Anaheim on December 2, 2011. Steve Mason has been a bright spot during Philadelphia’s struggles. He stopped 26 of 28 shots versus New York, lowering his goals-against average to 2.15. Mason, however, went 0-1 with a 6.87 GAA in his last two appearances against Anaheim while with Columbus in 2011-12. The Flyers will try to avoid their third straight loss to the Ducks in Philadelphia, where the teams are meeting for the first time since October 21, 2010.

Confirmed bets

Anaheim Ducks WIN @ Philadelphia Flyers (one unit @ $1.87) WIN (3-2)

Toronto Maple Leafs WIN @ Edmonton Oilers (one unit @ $1.83) WIN (4-0)

Winnipeg Jets @ St Louis Blues WIN NT (one unit @ $1.74) WIN (2-3)

Leans

New York Rangers @ New York Islanders NO LEAN

Anaheim Ducks @ Philadelphia Flyers +5.5 $2.13 LOSE (3-2)

Dallas Stars @ Montreal Canadiens WIN $1.68 WIN (1-2)

Tampa Bay Lightning WIN $1.91 @ New Jersey Devils LOSE (1-2)

Ottawa Senators @ Chicago Blackhawks WIN $1.67 WIN TT +2.5 $1.69 WIN (5-6)

Winnipeg Jets @ St Louis Blues +5.5 $2.13 LOSE (2-3)

Toronto Maple Leafs TT 2.5 $1.69 WIN @ Edmonton Oilers +5.5 $1.87 LOSE (4-0)

Los Angeles Kings WIN $1.91 @ Phoenix Coyotes

NBA for October 30

Los Angeles Clippers @ Los Angeles Lakers, STAPLES Center, Los Angeles, CA, Wednesday, October 30, 1.40pm

The wait is over for NBA fans with the opening three games of the 2013-14 season scheduled for this morning AEDT. There’s always a temptation to unload on the first games of the season, but I again caution to play light in the first two weeks of the season until you’ve at least seen each team on three or four occasions. I have just one play for opening night as the battle for Los Angeles kicks-off firmly in favour of the Clippers. The Lakers (45-37) were the ones with championship expectations entering last season following the acquisitions of Dwight Howard and Steve Nash. Both were plagued by injuries while Kobe Bryant suffered a torn Achilles tendon prior to a first-round sweep at the hands of San Antonio, and Howard bolted for Houston after his contract expired. The Lakers officially ruled out Bryant out for the season opener, meaning points are going to be a premium here for the former kings of the STAPLES Center and their scrap-heap of free agent signings.

The Clippers fired Vinny Del Negro and dealt a future first-round pick to Boston to acquire Doc Rivers' services. Since arriving, Rivers (pictured) has put a priority on building a championship mentality, seen in his move to have the Lakers' banners and retired jerseys covered inside STAPLES Center for Clippers home games. The Clippers quickly re-signed point guard Chris Paul, who signed a five-year, USD $107 million extension in the off-season. Paul should be happy with more weapons at his disposal, particularly with a deeper group of reserves. The Clippers added a bevy of 3-point options in J.J. Redick, Jared Dudley and Byron Mullens, and the signing of Darren Collison should also help Paul find more time to catch a breather. It's conceivable that the Lakers will only score in the 70s or low 80s while the Clippers allowed 94.6PPG last season and that figure will almost certainly fall under Rivers’ tenure. The Clippers are 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings and although the ‘over’ is 9-0 in the past nine match-ups, the ‘under’ looks safe here.

Confirmed bets

LA Clippers @ LA Lakers -198.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (103-116)

Leans

Orlando Magic @ Indiana Pacers -11.5 $1.91 LOSE -188.5 $1.91 WIN (87-97)

Chicago Bulls +4.5 $1.91 LOSE @ Miami Heat -187.5 LOSE (95-107)

LA Clippers -9 $1.91 @ LA Lakers LOSE (103-116)

Football (Capital One Cup) for October 30

Fourth round: Burnley v West Ham United, Turf Moor, Burnley, UK, Wednesday, October 30, 6.45am

The Clarets of Burnley are flying. They’re leading the Championship table and are coming off a 2-0 win over third-placed Queens Park Rangers last weekend. Manager Sean Dyche described the win as the best he’s seen in his year in charge of the Clarets. Scott Arfield, who missed their win over QPR, and Dean Marney, substituted late on, are rated 50-50 for the Clarets as they prepare to host Premier League opposition in the fourth round of the League Cup. Burnley have won their last four League Cup home matches against Premier League opposition – beating Fulham, Arsenal and Tottenham at Turf Moor in 2008-09, and Bolton in 2010-11. They’re also unbeaten on home soil this season (W7, D2), and average exactly two goals a game from their 16 matches this season. The Championship pacesetters have kept nine clean sheets in all competitions. Four of leading scorer (pictured) Danny Ings’ 13 goals this season have come in the League Cup.

In contrast, West Ham manager Sam Allardyce bemoaned his goal-shy side’s wastefulness after a 0-0 draw at Swansea, which means they’ve managed just eight Premier League goals in nine matches this season. Ricardo Vaz Te dislocated his shoulder against Swansea, meaning Carlton Cole could make his first start since rejoining West Ham. Matt Taylor, George McCartney and Leo Chambers are also in contention. The Hammers have not kept a clean sheet on their League Cup travels in 13 games, and have lost three of their last four away matches in the competition although they’ve been relatively free-scoring in the League Cup with five goals in two games. Burnley have never beaten West Ham in a cup competition (P5, L5), however they have only lost four of their 37 league meetings on home soil with the Hammers (W23, D10, L4). Their only previous League Cup meeting came in a two-legged second-round clash in 1980, which West Ham won 6-0 on aggregate.

Confirmed bets

Burnley DNB v West Ham United (two units @ $1.72) LOSE (0-2)

Leicester City v Fulham BTS (two units @ $1.63) WIN (4-3)
Manchester Utd v Norwich City +2.5 (one unit @ $1.60) WIN (4-0)

Leans

Arsenal v Chelsea WIN $2.30 WIN (0-2)

Birmingham City WIN $3.55 v Stoke City LOSE (4-4, 2-3 pens)

Burnley v West Ham United (correct score 1-1) $8.00 LOSE (0-2)

Leicester City WIN $2.25 v Fulham WIN (4-3)

Manchester Utd 2+ $1.98 v Norwich City WIN (4-0)

Rugby League (World Cup) for October 30

Group C: Tonga v Scotland, Derwent Park, Workington, UK, Wednesday, October 30, 7am

The Cumbrian town of Workington (population 24,000) is preparing to host one of the biggest events in its history when the 2013 Rugby League World Cup rolls into town. Workington’s proximity to the border will ensure a full house for the Group C clash for Scotland’s clash against the might of Tonga. Tonga thrashed Scotland 49-0 at the 2008 World Cup and they look even stronger this time around with 17 NRL players in their ranks. They thumped Samoa 36-4 in April and are the favourites to win Group C and take the one and only quarter-final spot on offer. Outside the ‘big three’ of Australia, New Zealand and England, the Tongans have arguably the most talented team at this World Cup. They have genuine grunt up front with skipper Brent Kite, barnstorming Eels veteran Fuifui Moimoi, Cowboys cannonball Jason Taumalolo, Penrith's Sika Manu and St Helens forward Willie Manu. Then there’s the raw power of outside backs Jorge Taufua, Konrad Hurrell and premiership-winning Rooster Daniel Tupou, plus the guile of Warriors young gun Glen Fisiiahi at full-back.

Scotland, meanwhile, are the group’s underdogs, considering the quality of Tonga and the form of fellow Group C side Italy. The Scots have 10 Super League players in their squad and four NRL players – Peter Wallace, Luke Douglas, Kane Linnett and Matt Russell – but struggled in their warm-up match against Papua New Guinea last week on the way to a 38-20 defeat. But while they can’t match Tonga’s power they do have stronger playmakers. Panthers-bound ex-Brisbane Bronco Peter Wallace (pictured) is a seasoned campaigner and has played four State of Origin games. Alongside him is the current Super League League ‘Man of Steel’ Danny Brough, who was controversially left out of England’s World Cup squad after leading Huddersfield to the top of the Super League ladder. They appear to have a clear advantage over likely Tongan halves pairing Samisoni Langi and Daniel Foster, and if they can control the game and create chances for their outside men the Tongans could be surprised. Indeed, the line on offer favours the Scots, and with plenty of support from the crowd, we’ll go that way.

Confirmed bet

Tonga v Scotland +19.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (24-26)

• Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.