Daily tips for October 18

A-League (round 2) for October 18

Adelaide United (1-0-0) v Melbourne Victory (0-1-0), Coopers Stadium, Adelaide, Friday, October 18, 7.30pm

Forget the Melbourne derby – the latest chapter in the A-League’s fiercest rivalry will be played out before a packed Hindmarsh Stadium crowd when the reds of Adelaide host the blues of Melbourne. These two long-time rivals come into the clash in different form, with hosts Adelaide sitting top of the table after a 3-1 win over the Perth Glory. The Victory struggled to break down city rivals the Melbourne Heart in their dull derby, which finished 0-0. The rivalry between the Victory and the Reds always produces passionate and fiery affairs and expect no different on Friday night. Ange Postecoglou, who has been touted as the favourite to take on the vacant Australia job, will want his team on the winners' list, while Josep Gombau (pictured) may have tactical surprises of his own after his team were reduced to nine men in their win over the Glory.

The toothless Victory attack that struggled to create chances against the Heart will be put to the test. Yet, in the Victory's favour is that Adelaide are unlikely to sit deep like John Aloisi's men did. That should see Postecoglou's side find more space in behind – something the Heart desperately stopped them from doing – with the Reds likely to press high. It should help the likes of Connor Pain and Archie Thompson get into the game more and the return of captain Mark Milligan improves their chances. Replacing suspended Adelaide duo Nigel Boogaard and Isaias will be top of the list for Gombau. Boogaard, sent off after picking up a second yellow card for a desperate lunge, is likely to be replaced by Osama Malik. Gombau has options in defensive midfield but is probably going to need to reshuffle his attacking third to find a partner for Steven Lustica. Adelaide have depth in their squad and beat the Victory in a pre-season friendly earlier this month.

Suggested bets: Both Teams Score (three units @ $1.55) WIN, Adelaide WIN (one unit @ $2.20) LOSE (2-2)

Racing for October 18

Horse racing: Mildura (Vic), Kembla Grange (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Coffs Harbour (NSW), Cranbourne (Vic – night). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Bathurst (NSW), Gloucester Park (WA), Kalgoorlie (WA), Melton (Vic), Wagga (NSW). Greyhound racing: Casino (NSW), Gawler (SA), Bendigo (Vic), The Gardens (Vic), Ipswich (Qld), Geelong (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Mandurah (WA).

Punters beware – Caulfield track manager Jason Kerr said today he is listening to what the modern day trainer is telling him. The major Spring Carnival races at Caulfield are now the last race on the card so to meet the trainers’ demands, more water is being dumped onto the track earlier in the day: “It seems these days they want more water on the track and not as hard as in the past, so that’s what we are doing,” Kerr said this morning.

After last week’s Caulfield Guineas meeting, several jockeys and trainers complained that the surface was too hard by the time the feature race was run. Of course, the Melbourne Racing Club is happy to keep its spectators on course as long as possible, while the Seven Network is delighted to be able to build the meeting to a climax to help meet this demand. But the days of a good (3) at the start of a Spring Carnival meeting seem a thing of the past.

He also said he did not expect any unusual racing pattern to emerge during the day with the rail out six metres: “I’m just doing some research on what we’ve done with the track in recent years, and in the last few years we’ve had an upgrade from a dead 4 to a good 3 about races four or five, and we’ve started with 5.3 (penetrometer reading). I’m at 5.53 now and it will be up in that high dead range again in the morning,” Kerr said.

Daily tips

Mildura R2 #1 Umatic (E/W 1x2) 1st ($2.60/$1.60)

Mildura R3 #7 Maccy Fields (win) 1st ($1.80)

Mildura R8 #1 Hell’s Kitchen (E/W 1x2)

Kembla Grange R2 #3 Bernabeu (win) LOSE (2nd)

Kembla Grange R4 #2 Big Time (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.55)

Ipswich R5 #7 Return Ticket (win) 1st ($2.80)

Ipswich R7 #3 General Son (E/W 1x3)

Coffs Harbour R3 #1 Flying Kistena (E/W 1x4) 2nd $1.40

Coffs Harbour R4 #12 Valorun (win) LOSE (U/P)

Coffs Harbour R5 #2 Hidden Rock (E/W 1x3) LOSE (U/P)

Cranbourne R1 #6 Majestic Artie (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($2.00)

Cranbourne R6 #8 Ossenhagen (win) LOSE (U/P)

Cranbourne R8 #1 Committed (E/W 1x4)

Harness racing tip: Melton R10 #7 Suspicious Behavia (win)
Greyhound racing tip: Geelong R9 #1 Midnight Rumour (win) 1st ($1.70)

NHL for October 18

Edmonton Oilers (1-5-1) @ New York Islanders (4-1-0), Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY, Friday, October 18, 10.10am

The Nassau Coliseum isn’t usually thought of as a difficult arena for opposing teams. Just don't tell the Edmonton Oilers. Losers in four straight and at the bottom of the Western Conference, the Oilers look to notch their first road win against the New York Islanders in almost 14 years in this clash. After three consecutive last-place finishes in the Northwest Division, the Oilers (1-5-1) were expected to take a step forward this season behind maturing overall No. 1 picks Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Nail Yakupov. Instead, their only victory in six games came in a shootout against winless New Jersey on October 7 and they have allowed a league-worst 32 goals. While Hall is tied for the team lead with six points and Nugent-Hopkins has three in five games, Yakupov (the top pick in the 2012 draft) has yet to record a point. Edmonton dropped to 0-3-1 on a six-game trip with that 3-2 loss to Pittsburgh. Ales Hemsky and Eberle scored second-period goals before Evgeni Malkin netted the winner in the third. The trip doesn’t get any easier for the Oilers, who have dropped six straight on Long Island since a 4-2 win December 14, 1999.

Edmonton has been outscored 22-9 in those losses and will try to beat an Islanders team that is 6-0-3 on home ice in the regular season dating to 2012-13. That run continued Tuesday with a 4-3 shootout loss to Buffalo, but it was a disappointing result for the Islanders (2-2-2) after they allowed the tying goal with 2:01 left in regulation to a team that entered without a win. Frans Nielsen and Matt Moulson also had goals for New York, which recorded a season-high 44 shots after tallying 35 in the previous two games combined. Captain John Tavares (pictured) had an assist to extend his point streak to five games. He had a goal and an assist in the most recent matchup with the Oilers, a 4-1 victory on December 31, 2011. Evgeni Nabokov made 28 saves in that game and is 6-1-0 with a 2.12 goals-against average in his last seven meetings with Edmonton. Devan Dubnyk figured to be the Oilers’ No. 1 goaltender this season, but he’s lost all four of his starts with a 5.43 GAA. I like the Islanders to win a high scoring affair here.

Suggested bets: Islanders WIN (two units @ $1.70) WIN, game total +6 (one unit @ $2.00) LOSE (2-3)

Other tips

Canucks WIN $1.70 @ Sabres WIN (3-0)

Hurricanes @ Maple Leafs WIN $1.72 LOSE (3-2)

Penguins WIN (Reg) $1.95 WIN @ Flyers +5.5 $1.91 LOSE (4-1)

Blue Jackets @ Canadiens WIN $1.65 WIN +5 $1.80 WIN (3-5)

Devils @ Senators WIN $1.65 WIN (2-5)

Wild @ Lightning TT +2.5 $1.80 WIN (1-3)

Bruins @ Panthers -5 $2.15 PUSH (3-2)

Blues WIN $2.20 WIN @ Blackhawks -5.5 $1.77 WIN (3-2)

Kings @ Predators -5 $1.95 WIN (2-1)

Sharks WIN $1.60 LOSE @ Stars -2.5 $1.83 LOSE (3-4)

Red Wings @ Avalanche -5.5 $1.77 LOSE (4-2)

Grand Salami -66.5 $1.91 WIN (63)

MLB playoffs for October 18

ALCS game 5 (series tied 2-2): Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers, Comerica Park, Detroit, MI, Friday, October 18, 11.10am

Each of the Detroit Tigers’ starting pitchers has contributed a solid performance through the first four games of the AL championship series, but RH Anibal Sanchez was unhittable in Game 1. He returns to the mound here against Boston’s LH Jon Lester in Game 5. Sanchez struck out 12 in six no-hit innings in the opener and Lester also was strong as the Tigers squeaked out a 1-0 victory. Detroit center fielder Austin Jackson reached base four times as the Tigers evened the series with a 7-3 victory yesterday. Detroit’s Jhonny Peralta (pictured) singled in the lone run against Lester in the opener, a contest in which Sanchez walked six and was pulled after 116 pitches. Jackson’s standout Game 4 performance in which he had two hits, two walks and two RBIs came after he was dropped to eighth in the line-up due to a deep slump (3-for-33, 18 strikeouts). Boston slugger David Ortiz was hitless in five at-bats in Game 4 to drop to 1-for-15 in the series. The Red Sox had 12 hits to match their total over the first three games but went 2-for-16 with runners in scoring position and left 10 men on base.

Lester allowed one run and six hits in 6 1/3 innings in Game 1 and has given up just three runs in 14 postseason innings this month. The opener marked his first loss since August 29 as he finished the regular season by allowing two or fewer earned runs in seven of his last 10 starts and has added two such performances in the postseason. That stretch included a September 3 start when Lester struck out nine and allowed one run in seven innings to beat the Tigers. Sanchez joined Walter Johnson (12 innings in 1924 World Series) as the only pitchers to strike out 12 and walk six in the same playoff game. The stellar outing represented a sharp turnaround from his start against Oakland in the AL Division Series when he allowed six runs (five earned) and eight hits – including three homers – in 4 1/3 innings. Sanchez has struck out 10 or more batters six times this season. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Detroit and 14-4 overall in the past 20. The Red Sox are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings in Detroit.

Suggested bets: Detroit WIN (two units @ $1.88) LOSE, game total +7 (one unit @ $1.83) PUSH, Boston TT +3.5 (one unit @ $2.00) WIN (4-3)

College Football (week 8) for October 18

10 Miami Hurricanes (5-0, 1-0 ACC) @ North Carolina Tar Heels (1-4, 0-2 ACC), Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC, Friday, October 18, 10.30am

Miami takes its top 25 ranking and seven-game winning streak to North Carolina for a prime-time Thursday Night Football ACC match-up with the Tar Heels. North Carolina will have Bryn Renner back under center after he sat out a 27-17 loss at Virginia Tech (20) with a foot injury, but the Tar Heels will be hard-pressed to get the air game going against Miami's stiff pass defence. The Tar Heels haven't beaten a ranked team since No. 24 Florida State in 2010 but have won four of the past six meetings, including an 18-14 victory last year in Miami. The Hurricanes are 15-3 all-time in Thursday night games while North Carolina is 6-5, including a 27-10 season-opening loss at South Carolina this year. The ‘over’ is 4-0 in the last four meetings in North Carolina; the underdog is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings while the Hurricanes are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall. Not sure about the ‘dog’ and the ‘over’ here though, and I’ll be playing the opposite side of the card.

The Hurricanes boast one of the best pass defences in the nation as they have allowed only two passing touchdowns (the fewest in the country) and have recorded 18 sacks. The offence has been equally impressive recently as Miami has put up 40 or more points in three straight games and looks to make it four straight for the first time since 1987. The Hurricanes have been balanced with Stephen Morris (pictured, 950 pass yards, nine touchdowns, four interceptions) and Duke Johnson (572 rushing yards, four TDs) leading the way. The Tar Heels have struggled on both sides of the ball in coach Larry Fedora's second season, dropping three straight since a 40-20 victory over Middle Tennessee. North Carolina has gained at least 400 total yards in 14 of 17 games under Fedora but only two of five games this season. The offence is still loaded with potential, though, with tight end Eric Ebron (23 catches, 333 yards, two touchdowns) and receiver Quinshad Davis (19 catches, 298 yards, four TDs) giving Renner a pair of terrific targets.

Suggested bets: Miami -9.5 (two units @ $1.95) LOSE, game total -64 (three units @ $1.91) WIN (27-23)

NFL (week 7) for October 18

Seattle Seahawks (5-1, 2-1 away) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-3, 2-0 home), University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ, Friday, October 18, 11.30am

Much has been made of the gap in performance of the Seattle Seahawks when they are at home compared to on the road, and it can be best exemplified by their two match-ups with the Arizona Cardinals last season. The Seahawks lost by four points at Arizona in the 2012 season opener, only to get revenge when mauling the Cardinals 58-0 at home three months later. Seattle is sitting atop the NFC West with a 5-1 record heading into this Thursday night showdown in Phoenix. The Seahawks have won two of three away from home but the victory margin in the two victories came by a combined eight points. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have a short week to prepare for the back end of a brutal division daily-double after Sunday's 32-20 turnover-laden defeat in San Francisco. It marks the start of a critical three-game homestand for Arizona, although each contest is against a team that advanced to the playoffs last season. Arizona has won six of the last seven home match-ups against the Seahawks. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings while the ‘over’ is 8-1 in the last nine meetings in Arizona.

Seattle ran its home winning streak to 11 games with Sunday's 20-13 victory over Tennessee, but life on the road has been a different story. The Seahawks trailed in the fourth quarter in a season-opening 12-7 win at Carolina and needed a boneheaded interception by Houston quarterback Matt Schaub to prevail in overtime in Week 4 before squandering a fourth-quarter lead in a 34-28 loss at Indianapolis a week later. Quarterback Russell Wilson has played efficiently but is averaging only 209 yards passing, although he has the luxury of handing off to Marshawn Lynch, who is third in the league in rushing with 487 yards. Arizona rolled up 403 yards of offence against the 49ers but was unable to overcome four turnovers, including a pair of interceptions by Carson Palmer (pictured), who was also sacked for a safety. Rookie Andre Ellington is making a strong bid to supplant Rashard Mendenhall (who was singled out for criticism by coach Bruce Arians after the loss in San Francisco) as the starting running back with seven carries for 56 yards and a TD and five receptions for 36 more on Sunday. If Arizona's offensive line can improve their protection of Palmer, I'm confident they’re good things here.

Suggested bets: Arizona +6.5 (2.5 units @ $1.91) LOSE, game total +40 (1.5 units @ $1.91) WIN, Arizona WIN (one unit @ $3.25) LOSE (34-22)

Note: All times quoted on the Last at Cannington blog are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT)

• Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.