Daily tips for October 26

Note: Bets are now listed in three categories on the Last at Cannington blog – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).


A-League (round 3) for October 26

Sydney FC (1-0-1) v Western Sydney Wanderers (0-2-0), Allianz Stadium, Sydney, Saturday, October 26, 7.30pm

Another full house is assured for the latest edition of the A-League’s Sydney derby although neither of the combatants is anywhere near their best.  Both sides are desperate to get the three points – and local bragging rights. The Sky Blues were taught a footballing lesson by a rampant Brisbane last weekend and will need an immediate response to the 4-0 drubbing to prove it was simply an aberration. The Wanderers on the other hand have shown encouraging signs over the first fortnight of the campaign. But despite their good play Tony Popovic's side haven't been able to turn that promise into a victory, with only two 1-1 draws to show from the first two games. Sydney are sweating on the fitness of skipper Alessandro Del Piero, who suffered a calf strain against the Roar. Pacy striker Yairo Yau is available again after international duty with Panama. Aaron Mooy (pictured) is the only injury worry for the Wanderers after his heavy head knock against the Phoenix last weekend. Socceroos defender Matthew Spiranovic is also nearing full fitness and could win a spot on the bench.

While the Sky Blues players have been quick to play it down, there's no doubt they dropped their bundle when Del Piero went off injured early in the clash with the Roar. With the score 0-0 at the time, Sydney suddenly lost any attacking thrust and confidence, with the home side banging in three goals before the break to put the result beyond doubt. If Sydney are to be successful this season, Farina will need to find a way for his side to cope without the veteran striker, who turns 39 next month. Western Sydney made a brilliant start to the game against Wellington last weekend and could have had the game out of sight inside the first 20 minutes. But there's no doubt they lost some of their spark when they lost Mooy to injury. The young midfielder's passing and work-rate is crucial alongside Mateo Poljak in the heart of midfield. While Iacopo La Rocca fills in admirably when called upon, he doesn't have the creativity that Mooy possesses which makes the Wanderers a lot more predictable.

Confirmed bet

Sydney FC v Western Sydney Wanderers WIN (one unit @ $1.75) WIN (0-2)

Leans

Sydney FC v Western Sydney Wanderers -2.5 $1.88 WIN (0-2)
Central Coast Mariners WIN $1.83 v Adelaide United WIN (1-0) 

Racing for October 26

Today’s highlights

Moonee Valley R1 $250,000 Inglis Banner (1000m, set weights, Inglis Race Series qualified only)

Moonee Valley R5 G2 $220,000 Mitchelton Wines Vase (2040m, set weights, 3yo) 

Moonee Valley R6 G3 $150,000 Telstra Phonewords Stakes (1200m, SWP, 3yo) 

Moonee Valley R7 G2 $250,000 Drake International Cup (2500m, SWP, 4yo+) 

Moonee Valley R8 G2 $220,000 Schweppes Crystal Mile (1600m, WFA) 

Moonee Valley R9 G3 $150,000 Eliza Park International Stakes (1600m, handicap, 4yo+ mares) 

Moonee Valley R10 G1 $3 million Sportingbet Cox Plate (2040m, WFA, 3yo+)

Horse racing: Moonee Valley (Vic), Rosehill (NSW), Eagle Farm (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Ascot (WA), Kembla Grange (NSW), Gold Coast (Qld), Tatura (Vic), Yarra Glen (Vic), Albury (NSW), Armidale (NSW), Townsville (Qld), Darwin (NT), Pioneer Park (NT). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Globe Derby (SA), Bendigo (Vic), Dubbo (NSW), Narrogin (NSW), Newcastle (NSW). Greyhound racing: Wentworth Park (NSW), Cannington (WA), Richmond (NSW), The Meadows (Vic), Townsville (Qld), Warragul (Vic).

The assessment of the Moonee Valley track last night proved spot-on, with the rail a no-go zone for much of the night and the bias clearly in favour of backmarkers. The rail will be out two metres today, so the track will play slightly better but I’m still expecting a run-on bias for much of the 10-race program. Punting at Moonee Valley can be feast or famine, as the importance of staying out of trouble during the run is magnified due to the short home straight of less than 200 metres. We saw last night that Craig Newitt found himself in a world of hurt on hot favourite Samaready after she jumped slowly in the Manikato Stakes and found no clear running space until the straight.

The speedmap for today’s $3 million Cox Plate is a bit of a mystery due to the presence of two runners making their first start in Australia (Side Glance and Mull of Killough) while horses including Long John, Super Cool, It's A Dundeel, Shamus Award and Happy Trails can race on or off the speed. Generally, the 2040m start at Moonee Valley doesn’t provide too much time for runners to position up, so I’m expecting most of those drawn middle to wide to save some gas for the last 800 metres. However, the biggest question mark today relates to the health of the race favourite #11 It’s A Dundeel (pictured). The superstar colt is recovering from a foot abscess and hasn’t run since knocking off Atlantic Jewel in the Underwood Stakes five weeks ago.

I’m going to stick with him. The 4yo Kiwi has five Group 1 wins under his belt and nine wins from 14 starts for almost $2.4 million in prizemoney. Trainer Murray Baker won’t have left a stone unturned to have him right for this, while jockey James McDonald is career best form. Of the rest, I’m going to have a saver on the big grey #8 Puissance De Lune. He’ll go forward and give the field something to catch as he lacks the genuine speed to run over a field of this calibre. If the bias has shifted towards the leaders after 18 races on the track in less than 24 hours, he could pinch it. It’s also worth a small play on the 7yo English gelding #5 Side Glance. His formlines are outstanding against the world’s best horses over the past two years. Craig Williams takes the ride and at $55, he’s a stupid price.

Confirmed bets

Moonee Valley R2 #2 Espirit de Bullet (E/W 1x2) LOSE (U/P)

Moonee Valley R5 #1 Savvy Nature (win) 1st ($1.70)

Moonee Valley R8 #10 Toydini (E/W 1x4) 1st ($3.60/$1.60)

Moonee Valley R10 #11 It’s A Dundeel (win) LOSE (U/P)

Rosehill R2 #6 Foreign Prince (E/W) 2nd ($3.00)

Rosehill R8 #5 Heart Testa (win) LOSE (2nd)

Eagle Farm R2 #2 Poste Restante (win) LOSE (2nd)

Morphettville Parks R6 #1 Extra Virgin (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($2.10)

Ascot R6 #1 Barakey (win) 1st ($1.60)

Leans

Moonee Valley R3 #11 Arousing Suspicion (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Moonee Valley R4 #9 Hioctdane (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Moonee Valley R5 #8 Pinstripe Lane (place) 3rd ($2.80)

Moonee Valley R9 #9 Kazanluk (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Moonee Valley R10 #11 Side Glance (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Rosehill R4 #4 Mulaqen (E/W) 1st ($5.30/$2.70)

Rosehill R5 #9 Myamira (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Rosehill R6 #8 General Life (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($1.40)

Rosehill R7 #5 California Storm (E/W) 3rd ($3.30)

Eagle Farm R4 #1 Flying Jet (E/W 1x3) 1st ($3.60/$1.60)

Eagle Farm R5 #4 Audacious Spirit (E/W 1x3) LOSE (U/P)

Morphettville Parks R4 #2 Classy Chloe (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Ascot R8 #11 Shining Knight (win) LOSE (3rd)

Kembla Grange R3 #7 Made To Order (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($1.70)

NHL for October 26

Carolina Hurricanes (4-3-3, 11 pts) @ Colorado Avalanche (8-1-0), 16 pts), Pepsi Center, Denver, CO, Saturday, October 26, 12.10pm

The Colorado Avalanche are the hottest team in the NHL. They look to continue their outstanding start to 2013-14 here against the Carolina Hurricanes. Colorado (8-1-0) missed the playoffs in each of the past three seasons thanks in large part to surrendering an average of 3.13 goals. First-year coach Patrick Roy is particularly pleased with their dramatic improvement defensively. The Avalanche have been the best defensive team in the league in October, yielding 1.33 goals per game behind goaltenders Semyon Varlamov and Jean-Sebastien Giguere. Varlamov, who should get the start here, has a 1.68 goals-against average while winning five of six starts. Giguere has a 0.67 GAA while winning all three starts. Gabriel Landeskog (pictured) has scored a goal in each of the past three games and also added an assist. The captain found the net on his only shot against the Penguins. Matt Duchene leads Colorado with six goals and nine points, but he was held off the score sheet for just the third time this season on Monday.

The Hurricanes are trying to conclude a four-game road trip with a third victory after falling 3-1 at Minnesota yesterday. However, they were dealt a much more serious blow when Cam Ward suffered a lower-body injury early in the game and was ruled out for at least three weeks. Justin Peters made his season debut in relief of Ward and stopped 19 of 21 shots. Peters went 4-11-1 with a 3.46 GAA in 19 games (16 starts) last season. Eric Staal has a five-game points streak after assisting on Alexander Semin’s goal on Thursday, and he had a goal and an assist in Carolina’s most recent trip to Denver. Semin has done his best work on the road this season, getting four of his five points in four games as the visitor. In addition to goalies Ward and Anton Khudobin, the Hurricanes are without forward Jeff Skinner, who sustained an upper-body injury in Minnesota. Defenseman Tim Gleason (concussion) and forwards Pat Dwyer (upper body) and Elias Lindholm (shoulder) are day-to-day.

Confirmed bets

Hurricanes @ Avalanche -1.5 (one unit @ $2.40) WIN (2-4)

Canucks @ Blues WIN NT (one unit @ $1.90) LOSE (3-2)

Ducks @ Senators WIN (one unit @ $1.67) LOSE (2-1)

Maple Leafs @ Blue Jackets WIN (one unit @ $1.83) WIN (2-5)

Leans

Islanders @ Penguins -1.5 $2.50 LOSE (4-3)

Maple Leafs @ Blue Jackets 1P -1.5 $1.85 WIN (0-1)

Sabres @ Panthers WIN $1.72 LOSE (3-1)

Canucks @ Blues TT +2.5 $1.64 LOSE (3-2)

Hurricanes @ Avalanche +5.5 $1.91 WIN (2-4)

CFL (week 18) for October 26

Edmonton Eskimos (3-13) @ BC Lions (9-7), BC Place, Vancouver, BC, Saturday, October 26, 1.10pm

An untimely run of three successive losses without quarterback Travis Lulay have knocked the BC Lions out of contention to host a playoff game. Lulay remains day-to-day with a shoulder injury, meaning the Lions will likely start Thomas DeMarco when they host the Edmonton Eskimos here. DeMarco is completing just 55 per cent of his passes and has thrown eight interceptions over the last three games, and will need to improve significantly if Lulay can’t return in time for the West Semi-final. Even without Lulay, slotback Nick Moore reached 1000 receiving yards in a season for the first time in his career after emerging as the top option among the BC receiving corps. The Lions' defence runs through linebacker Adam Bighill, who leads the team with 84 tackles and eight sacks. Kick returner Tim Brown leads the league with 1901 combined return yards. The Lions are 6-1 at home and the ‘under’ has played in four of the past five games at BC Place.

The Eskimos have lost four in a row and remain winless against West Division opponents, going 0-8. Edmonton has managed just 22 points over its last two games, overshadowing what has been a solid debut season at starting quarterback for Mike Reilly. Reilly has completed 60.1 per cent of his passes with 22 touchdowns and 16 interceptions despite being sacked 53 times while also leading the Eskimos in rushing with 624 yards, and he should reach 4000 passing yards against BC. Fred Stamps, who leads the league with 1259 receiving yards, is 143 away from tying his career high and has a career-best 11 touchdowns. Linebacker Rennie Curran had another strong game last week, leading the team with eight tackles. Curran, named CFL Defensive Player of the Week two weeks ago, is rising to the occasion while linebacker J.C. Sherritt is sidelined with a broken thumb. The Eskimos are a miserable 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in Vancouver.

Confirmed bet

Eskimos @ BC Lions -7 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (29-43)

Lean

Eskimos @ BC Lions -51 $1.91 LOSE (29-43)

College Football (week 9) for October 26

Boise State Broncos (5-2, 3-1 MWC) @ BYU Cougars (5-2), LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, UT, Saturday, October 26, 11am

There’s just one College Football for consideration this morning, and it’s a tricky one to assess as it features two of the hottest teams in NCAA Football – the Boise State Broncos and the Brigham Young Cougars. Boise State is off to a blistering start atop the Mountain West's West Division on the strength of a three-game winning streak. But the Broncos will have their hands full against a BYU squad that has won four consecutive games, including a thrilling 47-46 slugfest against host Houston last weekend. But the Broncos roll into Provo without starting quarterback Joe Southwick. The senior standout suffered a broken ankle in last week's 34-17 home victory over Nevada, leaving the offence in the hands of back-up Grant Hedrick. The junior hasn't played a full game since his senior year of high school but is excited for the opportunity to take the reins. Hedrick went 18-for-21 for 150 yards and added eight carries for 115 yards and two scores versus Nevada.

Few teams in the nation boast the offensive firepower of Boise State, which has overcome a one-sided loss to host Washington in its season opener to average better than 45 points over its last six games. Led by a top-25 rush attack, the Broncos should expect to meet their match as they tangle with a Cougars defence limiting opponents to just over 21 points per game. Defence ruled the day in their last encounter, a 7-6 Boise State win back on September 20, 2012. The Cougars, led by QB Taysom Hill (pictured), also find themselves in a difficult position, facing just six days between games and still recovering from last week's four-hour, seven-minute marathon win over Houston. BYU surrendered 483 yards in that one, but head coach Bronco Mendenhall said afterward he was proud of how his team buckled down after allowing 34 first-half points. BYU is 11-1 ATS in its past 12 games against the Mountain West while the ‘under’ is 12-3-1 in the Cougars' past 16 Friday games.

Confirmed bet

Boise State @ BYU -7 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (20-37)

Lean

Boise State @ BYU -61.5 $1.91 WIN (20-37)

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