Daily tips for October 12

A-League (round 1) for October 12

Central Coast Mariners v Western Sydney Wanderers, Bluetongue Stadium, Gosford, Saturday, October 12, 5.30pm

It’s one step back for every step forward in Australian football – after a stellar opening night the A-League season, national team dramas steal the focus. Memo to Football Australia: try turning the blowtorch on some of the cattle wearing the green and gold after immediately axing the coach in the wake of this morning’s 6-0 loss to France. The focus returns to the A-League tonight with the rematch of the 2012-13 Grand Final and the Melbourne derby. The latter may take much of the spotlight but, for a betting perspective, I’m much keener on the Wanderers’ visit to the Central Coast. The squads have changed – more so at the Mariners – but the coaches and styles should be similar. Western Sydney were remarkable in their first season in the competition and are a stable side having made few changes in the off-season. The players under Tony Popovic (pictured) men are well-organised and hard to break down. On two occasion's last campaign, the Mariners managed and claimed 2-0 wins – including in the all-important grand final.

Graham Arnold often loses players but manages to replace them, with his major additions including former Reds and Victory #10 Marcos Flores. Goalkeeper Mat Ryan has departed and the Mariners have had plenty of time to prepare for life without him. A fine shot-stopper, Ryan's ability with his feet was a key for Central Coast, who like to keep possession. Against a pressing Western Sydney side, whether Justin Pasfield – likely the Mariners’ number one ahead of Liam Reddy – is capable of doing the same remains to be seen. If Tomi Juric can provide Popovic with that goal-scoring target up front the Wanderers were largely missing with Croatian Dino Kresinger. On his return to Australia, the 22-year-old enjoyed his moments up front with Adelaide United before being picked up by Western Sydney. Juric has three Socceroos caps to his name, as well as a goal, and can play the part up front which could add several goals to a Wanderers team which relied heavily on attacking midfielders scoring last season.

Suggested bets: Western Sydney WIN (one unit @ $2.57) LOSE, game total -2.5 (three units @ $1.66) WIN (1-1)

Other tips

Melbourne Victory v Melbourne Heart +2.5 LOSE (0-0)

Motorsport for October 12-13


Formula 1 Japanese Grand Prix, Suzuka, Japan (qualifying October 12 from 2pm; race October 13 from 3pm)

The Formula 1 season is well and truly at the business end with five races remaining. German Sebastian Vettel (pictured) holds a commanding lead in the World Drivers’ Championship with 272 points, leading by 77 from Spain’s Fernando Alonso on 195. Vettel can actually clinch the title here were he to win with Alonso ninth or lower. Kimi Raikkonen has displaced Lewis Hamilton from third with 168 to his 161. Australian Mark Webber remains fifth on 130 with Nico Rosberg on 122. The Japanese GP is typically fast-paced and exciting with the majority of corners medium to high speed. The nature of the track makes it hard on the tyres so Pirelli is bringing its most durable compounds – the medium and hard. The drivers who can take care of their tyres and combine good straight-line speed will be tough to beat. Overtaking is not easy, so a strong qualifying performance will be important for the leading contenders to stake their claim.

Australian Mark Webber is hopeful of featuring prominently this weekend with decent performances at Suzuka in the past off the back of great performances by his team. Vettel has won three of the past four GPs here and will go into the race as clear favourite. Webber qualified third quickest in Korea but started in 13th place after a penalty that carried over from Singapore. His car was clearly quick as he steadily moved his way through the field during the race before Adrian Sutil took him out of the race. He will be keen to do well here at Suzuka. Although Alonso’s hopes for a third world championship will be unlikely he will be keen to keep the Championship alive beyond this week. Ferrari have performed well at Suzuka in the past so I expect Alonso to run strongly. Lotus drivers Raikkonen and Romain Grosjean have been in the mix with Alonso and Hamilton and I expect they’ll all be thereabouts again this weekend. (Preview by Stephen Doig)

Suggested bet: Sebastian Vettel WIN (2.5 units @ $1.50), Sebastian Vettel POLE (2.5 units @ $1.58)

Other tips

Fernando Alonso TOP 3 $2.15
Daniel Ricciardo TOP 10 $2.25
Pole Position wins race YES $1.75

Racing for October 12

Today’s highlights

Caulfield R2 G3 $150,000 Thoroughbred Club Stakes (1200m, SWP, 3yo fillies)

Caulfield R4 G2 $220,000 Schweppes Schillaci Stakes (1000m, WFA, 3yo+)

Caulfield R5 G3 $135,000 Sportingbet Sprint Series Final (1200m, SWP, 4yo+ mares)

Caulfield R6 G1 $400,000 Cathay Pacific Caulfield Stakes (2000m, WFA)

Caulfield R8 G2 $220,000 Sportingbet Herbert Power Stakes (2400m)

Caulfield R9 G1 $400,000 David Jones NBCF Toorak Handicap (1600m, weight raised 2.5kg)

Caulfield R10 G1 $1 million BECK Caulfield Guineas (1600m, set weights, 3yo)

Randwick R6 G1 $400,000 Moët & Chandon Spring Champion Stakes (2000m, set weights, 3yo)

Randwick R8 G3 $125,000 McGrath Estate Agents Angst Stakes (1600m, SWP, 4yo+ mares)

Horse racing: Caulfield (Vic), Randwick (NSW), Doomben (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Belmont (WA), Pakenham (Vic), Gold Coast (Qld), Kembla Grange (NSW), Albury (NSW), Manangatang (Vic), Emerald (Qld), Darwin (NT), Sunshine Coast (Qld – night). Harness racing: Menangle (NSW), Geelong (Vic), Albion Park (Qld), Globe Derby (SA), Maitland (NSW), Bunbury (WA). Greyhound racing: The Gardens (NSW), Bendigo (Vic), Richmond (NSW), The Meadows (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Cannington (WA).

As I discussed earlier this week, Caulfield Guineas Day is my favourite meeting of the Melbourne spring – the stars of the turf are out in force yet you don’t have to spend the bulk of the day in queues. There are also black-type events right across the 10-race program. This year’s edition of the Group 1 $1m BECK Caulfield Guineas for 3yo colts over 1600m may not be shaping as one of the classics, but it’s still an intriguing affair. There’s plenty of speed towards the outside so the pace should be solid heading to the first corner. However, the likes of El Roca and Éclair Big Bang won’t want to be shuffled back at the first corner while favourite will stick to the fence like glue from barrier 1.

It’s interesting to note that 16 of the past 26 winners of this race have jumped from barrier 1, 2, 3 or 4. History also shows that Guineas winners don’t display massive improvement on their previous run to win this race. With the exception of Econsul in 2004, no runner has improved by more than 2.5 lengths on its previous run. So based on what I believe is the minimum rating required to win, only five starters lie within the 2.5-length range – #1 Dissident, #4 Long John (pictured), #2 Charlie Boy, #6 Éclair Big Bang and #3 Divine Calling. Of that quintet, Long John looks to have the best pattern for improvement. The son of Street Cry has stepped up to a new PB at each of his past two starts.

Dissident has recorded the highest rating of these contenders but went backwards in the George Main, casting a question over his ability to return a PB rating at 1600m. Divine Calling definitely ticks all the boxes after his impressive win in the Stutt Stakes at Moonee Valley and ran his highest 2yo rating fourth-up (he’s fourth-up here). Éclair Big Bang has also been improving with each run and could reach the benchmark required to win here. I’m going to stick with the obvious here and hope that Kerrin McEvoy can get the job done for the Darley stable from barrier 1. Long John ran into strife on the home turn in the Prelude and probably would have beat Éclair Big Bang. If anything, that result just adds some more to what is a pretty generous quote.

Suggested bet: Caulfield R10 #4 Long John E/W 1x2 (two units) 1st ($4.80/$1.70)

Other tips

Caulfield R1 #7 Moonlight Hussler (E/W) 1st ($15.40/$5.30)

Caulfield R2 #5 Anatina (E/W) 2nd ($2.20)

Caulfield R3 #1 Iconic (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Caulfield R4 #6 Unpretentious (E/W 1x4) 1st ($3.70/$1.40)

Caulfield R5 #4 Shamal Wind (E/W 1x4) LOSE (U/P)

Caulfield R6 #5 Super Cool (E/W) LOSE (3rd)

Caulfield R7 #2 Bello (E/W) 2nd ($2.90)

Caulfield R8 #8 Lets Make Adeal (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Caulfield R9 #12 Trevieres (E/W) 2nd ($4.60)

Randwick R1 #6 Multilateral (win) 1st ($1.90)

Randwick R3 #8 Chateau Lafaite (E/W 1x4) 1st ($2.80/$1.40)

Randwick R4 #2 Fedde (place) LOSE (U/P)

Randwick R5 #5 That’s A Good Idea (win) 1st ($2.20)

Randwick R6 #5 Complacent (E/W 1x3) 1st ($5.50/$2.10)

Randwick R7 #6 Gangsters Choice (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Randwick R8 #10 Queenstown (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($2.00)

Doomben R4 #6 What About Me (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Doomben R8 #8 Qfighter (E/W 1x3) 1st ($3.20/$1.50) 
Morphettville R1 #6 Essay Raider (win) 1st ($1.90)

Morphettville R2 #3 Gauss (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Morphettville R6 #1 Highness (E/W) LOSE (4th)
Kembla Grange R4 #10 Roving Red (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($1.60) 

Emerald R3 #5 Royal Frolic (E/W 1x4) 1st ($2.40/$1.30)

CFL (week 16) for October 12

BC Lions (9-5) @ Calgary Stampeders (11-3), McMahon Stadium, Calgary, AB, Saturday, October 12, 12.05pm

The BC Lions are struggling to maintain their position in the West Division after suffering a rare home loss, but their confidence in back-up quarterback Thomas DeMarco gives them some hope when they visit the division-leading Calgary Stampeders here. DeMarco has shown flashes of injured starter Travis Lulay in the two games since Lulay suffered a separated shoulder, throwing for 286 yards and recording a 21-yard run last week against the Saskatchewan Roughriders. Unfortunately for the Lions, DeMarco also threw three picks in that contest, something he’ll need to control better against a Calgary defense that has 18 interceptions. BC’s defence averages a league-best 246.7 passing yards allowed and is second in rushing yards allowed per game with 86.6. Linebackers Adam Bighill and Solomon Elimimian play a big part in containing opposing offences, with Bighill leading the team with with 72 tackles and six sacks, while Elimimian has 53 tackles, two sacks and three interceptions. Veteran quarterback Buck Pierce has seen limited snaps since arriving from the BC Lions, completing 6-of-13 passes as he becomes reacquainted with the team that launched his CFL career.

The Stampeders have dealt with their share of injuries to key personnel and it has not slowed them at all as veteran quarterback Kevin Glenn can attest. Even though starting pivot Drew Tate was 3-for-4 last week in his first pass attempts since Week 2, Glenn’s strong performance in Tate’s absence (169-for-247 passing with 14 touchdowns to five interceptions) will make him tough to bench. With other important players such as wide receiver Joe West (pictured) in full health as well, Calgary’s problems are ones most teams would love to have. West caught eight passes for 120 yards in his first action since injuring his shoulder in Week 4. Running back Jon Cornish was named offensive player of the week and Canadian player of the week after rushing for a season-high 208 yards with two touchdowns against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers to overtake Kory Sheets for the league rushing lead. Cornish led the league in rushing last season with a career-high 1457 yards and is 42 yards away from matching that total with four games remaining. I can’t see the Stamps being upset here.

Suggested bets: Calgary -6.5 (2.5 units @ $1.91) WIN, game total +53 (1.5 units @ $1.91) WIN (26-40)

NHL for October 12

New York Islanders (2-0-1) @ Chicago Blackhawks (1-1-1), United Center, Chicago, IL, Saturday, October, 12, 11.10am

The New York Islanders are off to a great start, and they’re in position to hand the Chicago Blackhawks their first three-game winless streak since February 2012 when the teams meet at the United Center here. The Islanders have followed up a surprising playoff berth last season by starting 2-0-1 in 2013-14, and they’re coming off a 6-1 home victory over Phoenix on Wednesday. The lopsided result was due in part to a strong effort from Evgeni Nabokov (pictured), who made 33 saves and stopped 16 of 17 shots in the second period. Hart Trophy finalist John Tavares scored his first two goals of the season. Four NY players have at least four points, and nine have scored goals. Michael Grabner leads the way with two goals and four assists, three of which came against Phoenix. He had five assists in 45 games last season. Grabner and linemates Frans Nielsen and Josh Bailey have accounted for 15 of the team’s 30 points. But Nabokov has struggled in his last six games against Chicago, going 1-2-3 with a 4.00 goals-against average.

Chicago (1-1-1) last went three games without a victory during a three-game losing streak February 23-26, 2012. It’s on the verge of matching that slide after a 3-2 defeat at St Louis on Wednesday, as Alex Steen scored the winner with 21.1 seconds left off an odd-man break. The Blackhawks scored power-play goals from Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews to erase a pair of one-goal deficits, but never led. Chicago blew a 2-0 third-period lead in its previous contest, a 3-2 shootout loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday. Kane has one goal in each game this season and has scored in five straight regular-season games to tie a career high. The Blackhawks are 4 for 11 on the power play while the Islanders are 3 for 10. New York, though, has killed off 6 of 7 short-handed situations while Chicago has killed just 4 of 9 after allowing a league-low 18 power-play goals during the lockout-shortened 2013 season. The Blackhawks have won the past three matchups with the Islanders, getting four goals and two assists from Patrick Sharp.

Suggested bets: Game total +5.5 (two units @ $1.80) LOSE, Islanders WIN (one unit @ $2.38) LOSE (2-3)

Other tips

Coyotes @ Flyers WIN $1.68 LOSE (2-1)

Kings WIN $1.77 @ Hurricanes WIN (2-1)

Penguins @ Panthers +1.5 1P $1.93 WIN (2-2)

Stars WIN $1.95 WIN @ Jets +5.5 $1.91 LOSE (4-1)

Devils @ Flames WIN $1.91 WIN TT +2.5 $1.95 WIN (2-3)

College Football (week 7) for October 12

AAC: Temple Owls (0-5, 0-2 AAC) @ Cincinnati Bearcats (3-2, 0-1 AAC), Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH, Saturday, October 12, 11.30am

Cincinnati looks to bounce back in today’s only NCAAF game after last week’s upset loss to previously winless South Florida when the Bearcats host Temple, which is seeking its first victory under first-year coach Matt Rhule. The Owls are coming off a 30-7 loss to No. 8 Louisville, while Cincinnati lost 26-20 at South Florida after falling behind 23-6 at the half. Bearcats coach Tommy Tuberville (pictured) called out his veteran offensive line after the Bearcats rushed for a season-low 110 yards against South Florida last week. While the offence has struggled to establish an identity, Cincinnati ranks third nationally in total defense with linebackers Nick Temple, Jeff Luc and Greg Blair (team-high 32 tackles) leading the way. The special teams unit has become a major concern for Cincinnati, which has missed its last three field goal attempts and ranks 118th nationally in net punting. Cincinnati has won 10 of its past 11 home games and have not allowed an offensive touchdown since the second quarter of the Northwestern State game on September 14 – a span of 10 quarters.

The Bearcats have been wildly inconsistent since routing Purdue 42-7 in its season opener, but they’ll be heavy favourites against a Temple squad allowing 518 yards per game – fourth-worst in the country. Freshman quarterback P.J. Walker is set to make his first start for the Owls in place of junior Connor Reilly, who was benched after another slow start against Louisville. Bearcats quarterback Brendon Kay, who is expected to start despite suffering a bruised sternum last week, threw two touchdown passes in last season's 34-10 victory at Temple. Walker, last year’s top New Jersey high school player, took over on the Owls’ third series against Louisville and provided a spark with 182 passing yards and a touchdown. Junior running back Kenny Harper has a team-high six touchdowns on 56 carries for the Owls, who have trailed at halftime in four of their first five games. Temple’s young defense is led by sophomore linebacker Tyler Matakevich, who averages an NCAA-best 10.8 solo tackles per game.

Suggested bets: Game total +51.5 (three units @ $1.91) WIN, Cincinnati -21 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (20-38)

MLB playoffs for October 12

NLCS game 1: Los Angeles Dodgers @ St Louis Cardinals, Busch Stadium, St Louis, MO, Saturday, October 12, 10.05am

Two of baseball's storied franchises square off when the St Louis Cardinals host the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series. The Dodgers surged into contention with a ridiculous 42-8 stretch and haven't let up, bludgeoning the Atlanta Braves into submission in four games in the NL Division Series. The Dodgers don’t have home-field advantage in the NL championship series, but they have a few extra days to savour their early post-season success. LA has a stellar rotation led by likely Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw and Game 1 starter Zack Greinke.

St Louis advanced to its third straight NLCS (and eighth since 2000) by outlasting Pittsburgh in five games behind ace Adam Wainwright, who will be unavailable until Game 3 in Los Angeles. The Cardinals can't match the muscle of the Dodgers but they have a deep and balanced line-up that led the NL in runs and doubles. Joe Kelly (pictured) will start the opener for St Louis, which won the final two games of the NLDS to improve to 8-1 in playoff elimination games since 2011. Los Angeles went 4-3 against the Cardinals during the regular season, winning three of four in St Louis in early August.

Greinke (0-1, 3.00 ERA), who was getting ready to go in Game 5 against the Braves before going on to stand-by, went 15-4 with a 2.63 ERA in the regular season but lost the Dodgers' only game in the NLDS despite allowing two runs on four hits in six innings. He was 7-2 on the road but his ERA (3.21) was more than a run worst and batting average against (.263 against .207) was substantially higher than at Dodger Stadium. Greinke won at St Louis on August 5, allowing two runs on eight hits in 6 1/3 innings.

Kelly (0-0, 3.38) did not factor in the decision after giving up three runs in 5 1/3 innings of a Game 3 loss in Pittsburgh. Kelly went 10-5 with a 2.69 ERA during the regular season, including 10-2 as a starter after he was inserted into the rotation in early July. The 25-year-old Kelly was outstanding at home with a 5-1 record in eight starts, including 5 1/3 innings of one-run ball against the Dodgers on August 6. RF Carlos Beltran has been immense in the post-season with career totals of 16 homers and 31 RBIs in 39 games.

Suggested bets: Dodgers TT -3.5 (two units @ $1.87) WIN, game total -7 (1.5 units @ $2.05) WIN, Cardinals WIN (1.5 units @ $2.11) WIN (2-3)

Football for October 12

World Cup qualifier – Europe Group C: Germany (7-1-0) v Republic of Ireland (3-2-3), Rhein Energie Stadium, Cologne, Germany, Saturday, October 12, 5.45am

Republic of Ireland’s first match in the post-Trapattoni era could not come much tougher as they travel to Cologne to play Germany. Ireland will have bad memories of the reverse fixture when they were trounced 6-1 at home and go into this match knowing only a win will do to keep their slim hopes of a play-off place alive. The chances of the Irish getting anything from this match are even more unlikely given the form of Germany. Although their qualification is not confirmed yet, their record of seven wins and one draw in eight matches along with twenty-eight goals means their progression to the finals in Brazil looks almost certain. Even more ominously for Ireland, Joachim Low’s side has not failed to score less than three goals in any home games so far this qualifying campaign. The two countries have played eight times with Germany winning three times, Republic of Ireland twice and three matches ending in draws. Republic of Ireland has scored 12 goals this qualifying round with Robbie Keane (doubtful for this) scoring five of them.

If Keane misses, the recalled Anthony Stokes, Shane Long and Kevin Doyle will battle to replace him in the starting line-up. Defensive duo Richard Dunne and John O'Shea are both missing through suspension and Crystal Palace’s Damien Delaney could start after being called up to the squad by King. Darron Gibson and Andy Reid will be hoping to be involved after being recalled to the squad, while Robbie Brady is absent after undergoing a hernia operation. Germany and Arsenal playmaker Mesut Ozil (pictured) has scored six goals this qualifying campaign – only Edin Dzeko and Robin van Persie have scored more. Germany is without Lars Bender, Sven Bender and Marco Reus after they were forced to pull out of the squad through injury. Strike pair Mario Gomez and Miroslav Klose are both unavailable meaning Thomas Muller is expected to lead the attack.  Captain Philipp Lahm is set to revert to full-back after being used in a midfield role by Bayern Munich so far this season. Mario Gotze is set to start on the bench with the Bayern Munich man having only recently returned from an ankle injury.

Suggested bets: Germany -2 (two units @ $2.00) WIN, game total +3.5 (one unit @ $1.95) LOSE (3-0)

Other tips

Croatia v Belgium WIN $3.00 WIN (1-2)

Armenia v Bulgaria WIN $2.40 LOSE (2-1)

Moldova -2 $1.57 v San Marino WIN (3-0)

Ukraine WIN $1.75 v Poland WIN (1-0)

Albania v Switzerland DRAW $3.30 LOSE (1-2)

Estonia v Turkey WIN $1.44 WIN (0-2)

Iceland WIN $1.40 v Cyprus WIN (2-0)

Greece v Slovakia -2.5 $1.57 WIN (1-0)

Slovenia v Norway DNB $2.10 LOSE (3-0)

Sweden v Austria +2.5 $1.91 WIN (2-1)

Wales v FYR Macedonia DRAW $3.00 

England v Montenegro -2.5 $2.10 LOSE (1-0)

Portugal -2 $2.45 v Israel LOSE (1-1)

Spain v Belarus +2.5 $1.91 WIN (2-1)

Colombia v Chile DRAW $3.10 WIN (3-3)

Ecuador v Uruguay -2.5 $1.65 WIN (1-0)

Argentina (to nil) $1.95 v Peru LOSE (3-1)

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