Daily tips for October 29

Note: Bets are now listed in three categories on the Last at Cannington blog – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).

NBA (futures) for October 29

The opening games of the 2013-14 NBA season are just over 24 hours away, with defending champions Miami hosting Chicago in one of the three match-ups scheduled for tomorrow. Not surprisingly, the Heat are ranked the number one side heading into the new season, ahead of San Antonio, the Clippers, Indiana and Chicago. Oklahoma City, Houston, Brooklyn, Andrew Bogut’s Golden State Warriors and Memphis fill out the top 10. Ahead of my opening day preview, here are some season bets that I’ll be following over the next seven months.

• The Brooklyn Nets have the pieces to win a championship. There’s simply no other team in the league with as much talent from 1-8. This was a good team last year that, thanks to an owner with no spending limit, seemingly addressed all its shortcomings. Porous defense? Kevin Garnett is the best defender of the last 10 years. Floor spacing? Replace Reggie Evans and Gerald Wallace with Garnett and Paul Pierce, sprinkle in some Jason Terry, and you're in good shape. Need a defensive stopper on the wing? Andre Kirilenko is your man. The question is how it all comes together, how the players mesh and how new coach Jason Kidd manages them. Chemistry can become cliché, but it’s critical when you have a talented group playing together for the first time. Health and durability are obviously a concern but they should have enough talent to add four wins to the 49 they attained last season.

• The on-court story in Portland is one of optimism. Two-time All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge, arguably the league's top power forward, may be making noises about a move from Portland but he has a superior cast around him compared to last season's paper-thin roster that demanded Aldridge, stat-stuffer Nicolas Batum and Rookie of the Year Damian Lillard all log top-10 minutes in the league. GM Neil Olshey traded for 7-foot center Robin Lopez and forward Thomas Robinson, and signed veteran free agents Mo Williams, Earl Watson and Dorell Wright. He drafted Lehigh guard C.J. McCollum and shooting guard Allen Crabbe out of California. Olshey beefed up Portland without infringing on the club's financial flexibility to add more in the coming summers. The goal is to build the roster on the fly by continuing to add young, up-and-coming talent and reliable veteran role players to the core.

Confirmed bets

Brooklyn Nets +52.5 wins (three units @ $1.91)

Portland Trail Blazers +38.5 wins (three units @ $2.00)

Utah Jazz +25.5 wins (two units @ $1.83)

Denver Nuggets -45.5 wins (two units @ $1.83)

Minnesota Timberwolves +40.5 wins (one unit @ $2.00)

LA Lakers +34.5 wins (one unit @ $1.91)

Indiana Pacers +54.5 wins (one unit @ $1.80)

Kevin Durant scoring title (one unit @ $2.30)

Leans

Cleveland Cavaliers +40.5 wins $1.91

Golden State Warriors +50.5 wins $1.87

NY Knicks -49.5 wins $1.87

Phoenix Suns -19.5 wins $1.70

Philadelphia 76ers -16.5 wins $1.95

Another week on the punting Callander (#1)

Welcome to a new addition to the Last At Cannington blog featuring some of the stories and results that have caught my punting eye over the past seven days. By Sean Callander.

The AFL is nothing if not persistence and the League remains as committed as ever to the nonsensical International Rules Series. That’s despite a farcical Test series in Ireland in which the AFL’s Indigenous All Stars were belted by a combined 183-72 across the two games. The crowd at Dublin’s Croke Park was less than a third of the record 82,000 who watched Ireland host Australia in 2006.

It was widely reported in the mainstream media that the team enjoyed a 24-hour bender AFTER the First Test loss and an AFL insider let slip to me that the boozing didn’t wind down even after Aaron Davey said it was “disrespectful” to claim that the squad wasn’t taking the series seriously. The AFL is extraordinarily protective of its relationship with Indigenous Australia to which it undoubtedly makes a significant contribution. But the League and its clubs also accept millions dollars of funding from State and Federal governments for Indigenous programs so don’t expect a detailed examination into the disaster of this tour.

Indeed, it can hardly be said that the Indigenous players jumped at the opportunity to join the AFL’s biggest junket as withdrawals and a lack of interest meant a squad of only 20 players could be found to fill the 23 spots on the squad. The farce was confirmed when Lance Franklin was allowed to head home after supporting just half of the tour – that’s right, the biggest star in the current Indigenous AFL playing ranks could only take three days out of his schedule to represent his country.

I doubt the books held much money on these games, but the -9.5 line in favour of the Irish for the Second Test was particularly generous as the cappers obviously had little idea of how the Aussies spent most of the week. The AFL is maintaining a veneer of interest in the series with today’s story suggesting that the All-Australian squad may again form the foundation of the squad. However, it’s overdue that someone at League HQ tapped Andrew Demetriou on the shoulder and suggested that one of the AFL’s favourite pets is enduring a slow and painful death. End it mercifully but quickly.

• There’s an unwritten rule in the College Football ranks relating to “running up the score” – that’s when a team continues to play in such a manner as to score additional points after the outcome of the game is no longer in question. This creates a conundrum for sports bettors when examining some of the huge lines on offer each week. Will the favourite run out the game or keep their powder dry?

Case in point – the North Carolina State Wolfpack opened 32-points underdogs at Florida State on Sunday, and trailed by a massive 35 points by the end of the first quarter. As is tradition, the Seminoles benched many of their starters and played the second- and third-stringers for the rest of the game. As a result, the final margin was 49-17 making it an unlikely push for punters. Coincidentally, another Sunshine State school featured in one of the most famous cases of running up the score which, on this occasion, fell in favour of punters.

Florida were 21-point favourites to bet Sunshine State rivals Miami in their 2008 meeting. The game played out about as expected and, with about a minute left, the Gators had the ball and a 23-3 lead. But Florida coach Urban Meyer kept running plays in an attempt to score. Eventually the drive stopped 12 yards short of the goal line, and kicker Jonathan Phillips poked in a 29-yard field goal with 25 seconds left to move the score to 26-3.

Hurricanes coaches and fans were upset with what they saw as a classless attempt to run up the score and cover the spread, but Meyer claimed he just wanted to get the young kicker some late-game experience before the meat of the Gators' schedule. Either way, Florida covered the spread on the meaningless kick, which made Gator bettors doubly happy.

Final word: Do Victorian race officials have a problem declaring dead-heats at metro meetings? At Moonee Valley on Saturday, Vibrant Rouge was declared the winner ahead of Nearest To Pin in the City Jeep Handicap. It took judges a staggering four minutes to declare the winner. The print was clearly inconclusive, and I suspect a 20¢ coin may have decided the result! It was a similar story on Friday night when Espirit Rossa somehow got the nod ahead of Post D’France in the Country Cup. Hey, I’m still convinced that Dunaden and Red Cadeaux dead-heated the 2009 Melbourne Cup, having backed the latter pre-post at $31!

Racing for October 29

Horse racing: Pakenham (Vic), Port Macquarie (NSW). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Cranbourne (Vic), Harvey (WA), Menangle (NSW). Greyhound racing: Ipswich (Qld), Devonport (Tas), Gawler (SA), Gosford (NSW), Goulburn (NSW), Horsham (Vic), Lismore (NSW), Mandurah (WA), Townsville (Qld), Warragul (Vic).

Back-to-back racecards at Moonee Valley tested everyone’s endurance last weekend, with 18 races scheduled in less than 24 hours. The theory behind conducting the Friday night meeting before Saturday’s Cox Plate card – all the infrastructure is in place so why not have two bits of the cherry? Just because you can do something doesn’t always mean you should do it. Instead of a stellar Saturday meeting, the Moonee Valley Racing Club served up one very good card, and a so-so Friday night culminating in the G1 Manikato Stakes. The club dodged a major bullet as the track stood up well after midweek rain although the rail was a clear no-go zone on Friday night. Commercial aspects aside, I’d like to see a super Saturday at Moonee Valley rather than a diluted two-day card.

The standard of racing was OK, but Cox Plate Day didn’t have the buzz of past years. The scratching of Atlantic Jewel robbed the feature of a bona fide star and, while the win of Shamus Award (pictured, with jockey Chad Schofield) was full of merit, victory for a 3yo maiden was hardly an endorsement for the race. The win also showed the advantage that 3yo colts and geldings have over the rest of the field. Perhaps it’s time to consider a change to the weight scale as Shamus Award carried just 49.5kg, the same weight that All Too Hard was allocated on the way to his narrow runner-up finish to Ocean Park last year. The weight scale has served several other 3yos in recent years, and clearly favours the younger horses against the proven champions of the turf. So it’s on to Flemington …

Confirmed bets

Pakenham R6 #11 Rayhan (win) 1st ($2.90)

Port Macquarie R1 #10 Flying Kistena (win) 1st ($1.70)

Leans

Pakenham R1 #5 Dazza’s Girl (win) LOSE (U/P)

Pakenham R5 #7 Dats A Lass (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Pakenham R7 #1 Just Junior (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($1.50)

Port Macquarie R5 #2 Swiss Guard (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.60)

Port Macquarie R6 #3 From The Valley (E/W 1x2) 1st ($4.70/$1.60)

NHL for October 29

Pittsburgh Penguins (7-4-0, 14pts) @ Carolina Hurricanes (4-4-3), 11pts), PNC Arena, Raleigh, NC, Tuesday, October 29, 10.10am

Goals may have been in short supply for the Pittsburgh Penguins in the past three games but they’ve generally had little trouble lighting up the scoreboard in recent match-ups with the Carolina Hurricanes. The Penguins will be out to snap a three-game losing streak by continuing their success against a Hurricanes team that’s missing top goaltender Cam Ward. The Penguins (7-4-0) are among the NHL leaders with 33.0 shots per game and have put an average of 38.0 on net in their last three. But they’ve been outscored 9-4 in those games while going 1 for 15 on the power play. Pittsburgh registered 38 shots on goal in Toronto on Sunday but Kris Letang scored the team’s lone goal on a first-period power play. Sidney Crosby (pictured) has one goal during the losing streak after totaling seven goals and 10 assists during the team’s 7-1-0 start. The team’s other two points leaders, Chris Kunitz and Evgeni Malkin, have combined for two assists during the skid, the team’s longest since a string of six consecutive losses December 29, 2011-January 11, 2012.

Malkin, however, has played a significant role in helping the Penguins outscore Carolina 18-8 during a three-game win streak in the series. The 2012 league MVP has two goals and three assists in those match-ups. Carolina (4-4-3) is not expected to have its No. 1 goaltender available for the next three to four weeks due to a lower-body injury. The team’s backup, Anton Khudobin, has missed the past five games also because of an ailing lower body. The Hurricanes had two goaltenders who started the season in the minors, Justin Peters and Mike Murphy, dress for Friday’s visit to Colorado. After Ward was injured in Thursday’s 3-1 loss to Minnesota, Peters got the start against the Avalanche, and stopped 30 shots in a 4-2 loss. Carolina was also without leading scorer Jeff Skinner (upper body), who is day-to-day. Pittsburgh is 6-1-0 in its last seven games against Carolina even with Crosby missing four of those match-ups. Crosby has two goals and 11 assists during an eight-game point streak against the Hurricanes.

Confirmed bets

Penguins WIN @ Hurricanes (two units @ $1.55) WIN (3-1)

Stars @ Sabres -5.5 (one unit @ $1.68) LOSE (4-3)

Capitals @ Canucks TT +2.5 (one unit @ $1.68) WIN (2-3)

Leans

Stars WIN @ Sabres $1.74 WIN (4-3)

Penguins -1.5 $2.60 @ Hurricanes WIN (3-1)

Canadiens WIN $1.91 @ Rangers WIN (2-0)

Blackhawks WIN $1.75 @ Wild WIN (5-1)

Capitals @ Canucks -5.5 $1.78 WIN (2-3)

MLB (World Series) for October 29

Game 5 (series tied 2-2): Boston Red Sox @ St Louis Cardinals, Busch Stadium, St Louis, MO, Tuesday, October 29, 11.10am

The stars of each bullpen return to the mound for this crucial Game 5 of the World Series. The series is split and 2-2, and it’s been the team that has made the fewest mistakes that has emerged victorious across the four games played to this point. The big mistake of Game 4 was a high sinker to Jonny Gomes, who deposited it beyond the left-field wall to give the Red Sox a 4-2 win. St Louis became the first team in history to end a World Series game on a pick-off when its other big mistake came back to bite it on Sunday. Rookie Kolten Wong was nabbed at first base to end the game with Carlos Beltran at the plate representing the tying run. That marks two straight series games ending in historic fashion after Boston made the big mistake of Game 3 on an obstruction call at third base. The Red Sox have now committed errors in five straight games while the Cardinals are 7-1 in their last eight during Game 5 of a series.

Red Sox LH Jon Lester (1-0, 0.00 ERA) dominated in Game 1, striking out eight and scattering five hits in 7 2/3 scoreless innings. The 29-year-old has not allowed a run in 13 1/3 career innings in the World Series and is dominant in the 2013 post-season with five runs allowed in 27 total innings. Lester’s worst start of the playoffs was his lone road turn, when he surrendered two runs on seven hits in 5 1/3 innings at Detroit. Cardinals RH Adam Wainwright (pictured, 0-1, 5.40) did not get a lot of help from the defense behind him in Game 1 and was charged with five runs (three earned) on six hits in five innings. That made two straight losses in the post-season for Wainwright, who lost a 3-0 shutout at LA in the NLCS. Wainwright got the win in each of his two post-season starts at home, yielding two runs on 11 hits in 16 combined innings. The ‘under’ is 5-2 in the past seven meetings in St. Louis and a massive 36-17 in umpire Bill Miller's past 53 IL games behind home plate.

Confirmed bets

Game total -6.5 (two units @ $1.87) WIN (3-1)

1st inning result DRAW (one unit @ $1.65) LOSE (1-0)

Lean

Cardinals WIN $1.80 LOSE (3-1)

NFL (week 8) for October 29

Seattle Seahawks (6-1, 3-1 away) @ St Louis Rams (3-4, 2-1 home), Edward Jones Dome, St Louis, MO, Tuesday, October 29, 11.40am

Having lost their starting quarterback for the season and, unbelievably, considered luring Brett Favre out of retirement, the St Louis Rams face the unenviable task of solving one of the league’s most ferocious defences in a prime-time match-up. Former No. 1 overall pick Sam Bradford suffered a torn ACL in last week's loss to Carolina, putting Kellen Clemens in the line of fire when the NFC West-leading Seattle Seahawks visit the Rams. St Louis’ modest two-game win streak came to a crashing halt last week at Carolina, a defeat magnified by the loss of Bradford. Clemens, a former second-round pick of the New York Jets who is in his third season with the Rams, has only 12 starts and 31 career appearances on his resume, posting a completion percentage of 51.8 and passer rating of 62.2. Clemens will also be relying on a pair of the team's first-year players – wideout Tavon Austin leads all rookies with 29 receptions while running back Zac Stacy is averaging 70 yards rushing in his past three. The ‘under’ is 5-1 in the past six meetings.

The Seahawks have won two straight since their lone defeat at Indianapolis and hold a one-game lead over San Francisco atop the division. Seattle’s calling card is a unit that is second in total defence (282.1 yards per game) and interceptions (11) and third in the league in points allowed with an average of 16.6 per game. Although the teams split a pair of narrow decisions last season, the Seahawks have won 14 of the past 16 against St Louis. While Seattle’s defence receives a ton of attention, the offence has been efficient behind second-year quarterback Russell Wilson and wrecking-ball running back Marshawn Lynch (pictured), who is second in the league in rushing with 578 yards. Wilson has thrown for 11 touchdowns versus four interceptions while awaiting the return of marquee wide receiver Percy Harvin, who returned to practice this week after undergoing pre-season hip surgery. The Seahawks are tied for second in turnover differential at plus-7 and have forced at least two in each game. They’re also 9-3 ATS in their past 12 meetings against the Rams.

Confirmed bets

Seattle +13 $1.91 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (9-14)
Marshawn Lynch yards gained +93.5 (one unit @ $1.75) LOSE (23)

Leans

Game total -43.5 $1.91 WIN (9-14)
Seattle TT +27 $1.83 LOSE (9-14)

Rugby League (World Cup) for October 29

Group A: Fiji v Ireland, Spotland Stadium, Rochdale, UK, Tuesday, October 29, 7am

A huge crowd is expected to brave the wet and cold at Rochdale, just outside Manchester for tonight’s only game scheduled in the Rugby League World Cup. A quarter-finals spot is up for grabs with Australia and England expected to finish first and second in the toughest pool of the tournament. These two teams met at the quarter-finals stage in the last World Cup in 2008, with Fiji sending Ireland packing on the way to their best finish in the tournament. Fiji are led by front-row great Petero Civoniceva (pictured), who has kept match fit in the Queensland Cup this season and returns to the world stage with the country of his birth at the age of 37. His squad is brimmed with family connections, with Ashton, Tariq and Korbin Sims in the pack and Wes and Kevin Naiqama in the backline alongside Daryl and Ryan Millard. The Fijians look particularly strong in the back row and the outside backs, so Ireland will need to be wary when defending on the fringes.

Ireland reached the knockout stages last time around after surprising both Samoa and Tonga in the group stage, and they boast a squad dominated by Super League players, with Canberra's Brett White, North Queensland’s Rory Kostjasyn, Parramatta’s Api Pewhairangi, Manly’s James Hasson and returning Wests Tiger Pat Richards the team’s NRL stars. Richards has scored 140 tries in 183 Super League games, took out the competition’s Man of Steel award in 2010 and has just won the premiership with Wigan, while his fellow winger Damien Blanch knows his way to the try line as well after scoring 73 tries in 120 Super League appearances. But their best weapon may be halfback Scott Grix, who is a jack-of-all-trades at club level but will be Ireland’s chief playmaker. Grix arguably gives Ireland the advantage in the halves, which could be a key factor if the game goes down to the wire. The Irish can’t be written off but the Fijians are blessed with talent across the park.

Confirmed bets

Fiji 13+ v Ireland (two units @ $1.65) WIN (32-14)

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