Daily tips for October 27

Note: Bets are now listed in three categories on the Last at Cannington blog – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).

Motorsport (F1) for October 27

Formula 1 Indian Grand Prix, Buddh International Circuit, New Delhi, India, Sunday, October 27, 8.30pm

Sebastian Vettel is on the verge of securing his fourth consecutive World Championship title after winning his ninth race of the season in Japan two weeks ago. He will win the Championship if he finishes fifth or better here. I expect he’ll comfortably do that given his form, his past Indian GP performances, and the domination of the Red Bulls over their rivals. The Red Bull team have been clear leaders in the constructor’s championship again this season and there is no reason why they won’t finish strongly in the last few races. Mark Webber wants to leave the sport on a high with four races remaining and Vettel is such a competitive beast he will only feel further freedom to push himself to break track records (and consecutive race wins) if he wins the race and Championship this weekend. The Indian Grand Prix has been held here only twice before with Vettel winning both races – starting in pole position each time and leading every lap! The drivers genuinely enjoy this track, as it’s relatively new, undulating, quick and challenging.

However, like so many tracks around the world, there are only a couple of genuine passing opportunities here. The extended DRS zone will hopefully lead to more passing but those who finish well in qualifying are likely to find themselves on the podium as it could be a one-stop race depending on tyre degradation. Interestingly from qualifying, Romain Grosjean didn’t even make it through to Q2 and will start 17th. It will severely hamper Lotus’ chance of finishing 2nd in the constructors’ championship. However, he will now provide a little more value for a top six finish at $1.80. Mercedes drivers Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton (pictured) occupy second and third spots on the grid. Vettel is on pole but Webber holds the ace as he’s qualified fourth but on different tyres than the starting three. Interestingly the safety car has never been deployed in the Indian Grand Prix. Perhaps it’s due given the challenges of the circuit and the battles expected between the teams. Not bad value at $2.50. (Preview by Stephen Doig)

Confirmed bet

Lewis Hamilton TOP 3 $2.40 LOSE (6th)

Leans

Sebastian Vettel WIN $1.30 WIN (1st)

Jenson Button TOP 10 $1.55 LOSE (14th)

Safety car YES $2.50

Racing for October 27

Today’s highlights

Sale R7 $150,000 Eastcoast Plumbtec Sale Cup (1600m, handicap 

Hamilton R6 $60,000 Unibet Hamilton Cup (2200m, handicap) 

Northam R8 Listed $125,000 XXXX-Gold Northam Cup (1600m, quality, 3yo+)

Horse racing: Sale (Vic), Wyong (NSW), Sunshine Coast (Qld), Bordertown (SA), Northam (WA), Queanbeyan (NSW), Hamilton (Vic). Harness racing: Kilmore (Vic), Menangle (NSW), Hobart (Tas). Greyhound racing: Healesville (Vic), Sandown Park (Vic), Sale (Vic), Gawler (SA), Albion Park (Qld), Canberra (ACT).

The fact that Nash Rawiller has elected to take the long trip to East Gippsland for today’s running of the $150,000 Sale Cup tells us that #2 Mutual Trust is well fancied to claim victory. The six-year-old gelding, trained at Mornington by Sam Pritchard-Gordon, is stepping back in class here following two elite level runs. The first was an 11th to Rebel Dane from barrier 16 of 16 in the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m) last month, before their improved sixth in the Toorak as a $41 outsider. The dead (4) and barrier 6 look made to order, while all three of his wins have come at this per distance of 1600m. Throw in the engagement of Rawiller and he looks a strong chance here.

Confirmed bets

Sale R4 #2 He’snotthemessiah (win) LOSE (U/P)
Sale R6 #3 The Quarterback (win) 1st ($2.00)

Sale R7 #2 Mutual Trust (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($1.90)

Wyong R8 #1 Kincella (win) 1st ($1.50)

Hamilton R4 #3 Connection (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Sunshine Coast R4 #2 Lucky Baa (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.42)

Leans

Sale R3 #7 Runes (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.50)

Wyong R5 #4 Our Brightest Star (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Wyong R7 #7 One More (win) LOSE (U/P)

Hamilton R5 # 5 King Buddy (win) 1st ($2.50)

Hamilton R7 #5 Spider Web (E/W 1x2) LOSE (U/P)

Bordertown R7 #3 Serious Danger (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($1.70)

Sunshine Coast R2 #2 Cliff’s Dream (win) LOSE (2nd)

MLB (World Series) for October 27

Game 3 (series tied 1-1): Boston Red Sox @ St Louis Cardinals, Busch Stadium, St Louis, MO, Sunday, October 27, 11.10am

A team of eight Clydesdales will pull a red beer wagon around the warning track before the first pitch signaling the opening game (and third overall) at Busch Stadium as the Cardinals return to St Louis after splitting the first two games in Boston. The Boston Red Sox are even in this World Series thanks in large part to the Nos. 4-5 line-up combination of David Ortiz and Mike Napoli. But when the Cardinals host the Red Sox in Game 3, one of those two will have to sit on the bench. The Red Sox lose the designated hitter in the National League park and alternated between Napoli and Ortiz at first base during interleague play in the regular season. Ortiz’s two-run blast in Game 2 accounted for the only runs the Red Sox managed in a 4-2 loss, during which some questions popped up about their bullpen. Craig Breslow allowed a pair of inherited runners to score and committed an error during the three-run seventh inning while the St Louis bullpen, headlined by rookies Carlos Martinez and Trevor Rosenthal, dominated.

Red Sox RH Jake Peavy (0-1, 8.31 ERA) put together a strong start in the final game of the ALDS at Tampa Bay but was lit up for seven runs on five hits and three walks in three innings at Detroit in the ALCS. The 32-year-old is 0-3 with a 10.31 ERA in four career post-season starts. Peavy owns a history against the Cardinals from when he was in the NL and is 1-3 with a 2.08 ERA in four career starts at St Louis. Cardinals RH Joe Kelly (0-1, 4.41) surrendered four earned runs in five innings at Los Angeles in the NLCS to suffer his lone post-season setback. The 25-year-old features a power sinker but does not work deep into games, topping out at six innings and 95 pitches in three postseason starts. Kelly posted worse numbers at home than on the road in the regular season, going 5-4 with a 3.29 ERA in 18 games (eight starts) in St Louis. Since 1969, the Game 3 winner tied in a World Series 1-1 has won 16 of the 18 series.

Confirmed bet

Boston TT -3.5 (two units @ $1.87) WIN (2-4)

St Louis WIN (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (2-4)

Lean

Game total -7.5 $1.80 WIN (2-4)

CFL (week 18) for October 27

Saskatchewan Roughriders (11-5) @ Calgary Stampeders (13-3), McMahon Stadium, Calgary, AB, Sunday, October 27, 10.10am

The toughest game of the week in Canadian football features two sides that have split their 2013 fixtures, both winning at home, and with the aggregate score reading 63-63. The Calgary Stampeders can clinch the West Division with a victory when they host the Saskatchewan Roughriders here. The Roughriders, who trail the Stampeders by two games, are looking to win the deciding game in their season series, which would keep their hopes of a playoff bye alive. Saskatchewan has won three straight games, while the Stampeders are riding a four-game winning streak. Running backs from both teams won player of the week honours last week, with Roughriders running back Kory Sheets the top offensive player while Stampeders running back Jon Cornish was named Canadian player of the week. Cornish and Sheets are leading the league in rushing yards, with Sheets 134 yards behind Cornish after missing time due to injuries.

Saskatchewan’s fearsome defensive line of John Chick, Tearrius George, Jermaine McElveen and Ricky Foley has been bolstered by the arrival of Alex Hall, who has helped the Roughriders limit opponents to 23 points over the last two games. Slotbacks Chris Getzlaf (996 yards) and Weston Dressler (960) have 16 touchdowns combined. They are the preferred targets of quarterback Darian Durant, who is 48 passing yards shy of reaching 4000 for the third time in his career. Calgary kicker Rene Paredes is flirting with history as he approaches the end of the regular season with 49-of-52 made field goals, which puts him within reach of Paul McCallum’s accuracy record, set in 2011 when he made 50-of-53 field goals. Slotback Marquay McDaniel (pictured) is 41 receiving yards away from posting his first 1000-yard season and has already set a career high for touchdowns with eight. Calgary is a league-best 7-1 at home.

Confirmed bet

Calgary Stampeders WIN (two units @ $1.56) WIN (25-29)

Leans

Montreal Alouettes +5.5 @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats WIN (24-27)

Saskatchewan Roughriders @ Calgary Stampeders +54.5 LOSE (25-29)

NHL for October 27

New York Rangers (2-6-0, 4 pts) @ Detroit Red Wings (6-4-1, 13 pts), Joe Louis Arena, Detroit, MI, Sunday, October 27, 10.10am

The Detroit Red Wings have been struggling to find the back of the net over the past seven days. For the New York Rangers, it’s been a season-long trend. The Red Wings will try to snap a three-game skid here when they host the Rangers, whose offence has been lifeless during a season-opening nine-game trip that concludes with this match-up. Friday’s 2-1 loss at Philadelphia marked the fourth time this season that the Rangers (2-6-0) had one goal or less. New York is also one of five teams to be shut out twice despite playing a league-low eight games. Brad Richards has seven goals and 21 points in 21 regular-season games against the Red Wings. He has five of New York’s 12 goals this season, while Ryan Callahan (3) is the only other player with more than one. The Rangers have an NHL-worst minus-19 goal differential. Lack of offence aside, holding an opponent to two goals was a step in the right direction in the 2-1 loss to the Flyers.

Goaltender Cam Talbot, making his NHL debut, had 27 saves in the loss. No. 1 goalie Henrik Lundqvist missed the game with an undisclosed injury. The Red Wings (6-4-1), who have a combined three goals during their current slide, are shuffling lines after Thursday’s 6-1 home loss to Ottawa. Coach Mike Babcock has decided to split up leading scorers Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg. Zetterberg (pictured) hasn’t scored in his last four games after getting six goals in his first seven, but the move is being made more to involve others in the scoring than to revive Datsyuk or Zetterberg. They’ve scored 11 of the team’s 25 goals. Daniel Alfredsson and Johan Franzen have combined for only three goals, though Alfredsson does lead the team with eight assists. The Red Wings are 12-1-1 in the series since their last loss to the Rangers at Joe Louis Arena on January 30, 1999. In the last meeting on March 21, 2012, the Rangers won 2-1 in overtime at Madison Square Garden.

Confirmed bets

Rangers @ Red Wings WIN (two units @ $1.53) LOSE (3-2)

Jets @ Stars +5.5 (one unit @ $2.04) LOSE (2-1)

Oilers @ Coyotes +5.5 (one unit @ $1.93) WIN (4-5)

Sabres TT -2.5 @ Lightning (one unit @ $1.73) WIN (2-3)

Penguins @ Maple Leafs +1.5 (one unit @ $1.45) WIN (1-4)

Leans

Oilers @ Coyotes TT +2.5 $1.88 WIN (4-5)

Devils @ Bruins -5 $1.83 LOSE (4-3)

Sabres @ Lightning -1.5 $2.30 LOSE (2-3)

Capitals WIN $1.73 @ Flames +5.5 $1.88

Sharks WIN $1.83 @ Canadiens WIN (2-0)

Flyers WIN $2.02 WIN @ Islanders +5.5 $1.96 WIN (5-2)

Wild +1.5 $1.56 @ Blackhawks WIN (5-3)

Penguins @ Maple Leafs +5.5 $1.88 LOSE (1-4)

Blues WIN $1.83 @ Predators WIN (6-1)

College Football (week 9) for October 27

ACC: 9 Clemson (6-1, 4-1 ACC) @ Maryland (5-2, 1-2 ACC), Byrd Stadium, College Park, MD, Sunday, October 27, 6.30am

Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris says it's time for the ninth-ranked Tigers to get back to basics. The Tigers (6-1, 4-1 ACC) have struggled to run even their most basic plays the past two games, Morris said, managing just 38 points combined against Boston College and Florida State. They averaged 44 points the first five weeks of the season. It doesn’t get any easier here at Maryland (5-2, 1-2), where the Tigers have had their problems in the past. Clemson rallied from 18 points down in the second half for a 56-45 win at College Park two years ago but has split its previous four visits. Quarterback Tajh Boyd has been one of the country’s offensive leaders in the past three seasons with a quick-moving, fast-strike attack that often overwhelms opponents. But it was the Tigers who were overwhelmed last Saturday night in a 51-14 defeat to the then-No. 5 Seminoles, who scored the most points ever by an opponent in Death Valley.

Clemson faces a Maryland team hurting from the loss of receivers Stefon Diggs and Deon Long, both of whom broke their right legs in a 34-10 loss at Wake Forest last week. C.J. Brown (pictured) led Maryland to a 5-0 start but was knocked out of the Terrapins’ 63-0 loss to Florida State with a chest injury. Backup Caleb Rowe threw for 332 yards in a 27-26 win over Virginia, but Brown started last week at Wake Forest. He left with a concussion, and Rowe threw for 207 yards and a touchdown. This week, Maryland coach Randy Edsall told The Baltimore Sun Brown wasn’t fully healthy and has declined to name a starting quarterback. Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables said both quarterbacks are similar in their running and throwing styles, but it is always preferable for a defence to know exactly who they’ll be facing. Maryland features the ACC’s second-ranked run defence behind only Virginia Tech in allowing 123.7 rushing yards per game. Clemson is ninth in league rushing at 165.4 yards on the ground per game.

Confirmed bets

Nebraska @ Minnesota +52 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (23-34)

Ball State @ Akron +54.5 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (42-24)

Clemson @ Maryland +61 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (40-27)

Georgia State @ Louisiana Monroe -15 (three units @ $1.91) WIN (10-38)

Notre Dame @ Air Force +19.5 (two units @ $1.91) LOSE (45-10)

Clemson @ Maryland +16.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (40-27)

Ball State @ Akron +10 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (42-24)

Houston @ Rutgers -59.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (49-14)

Connecticut @ Central Florida -51.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (17-62)

Louisville -19.5 @ South Florida (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (23-7)

Texas Tech +9 @ Oklahoma (four units @ $1.91) WIN (30-38)

UNLV @ Nevada -6.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (27-22)

Stanford @ Oregon State +4.5 (three units @ $1.91)

UCLA @ Oregon -23.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (14-42)

Fresno State @ San Diego State +7.5 (one unit @ $1.87)

California @ Washington +67.5 (one unit @ $1.91)

Leans

Buffalo @ Kent State WIN $1.95 LOSE (41-21)

Vanderbilt @ Texas A&M +70 $1.91 WIN (24-56)

Tulsa @ Tulane -48.5 $1.91 WIN (7-14)

California +27.5 $1.91 @ Washington

Texas +2.5 $1.91 @ TCU

Idaho +41 $1.91 @ Ole Miss LOSE (14-59)

Nebraska @ Minnesota +10.5 $1.91 WIN (23-34)

UTEP @ Rice -18 $1.91 WIN (7-45)

Pittsburgh @ Navy +5 $1.91 WIN (21-24)

NC State +32 $1.91 @ Florida State PUSH (17-49)

South Carolina +3.5 $1.83 @ Missouri

Penn State @ Ohio State -14.5 $1.91

UCLA @ Oregon -73 $1.91 WIN (14-42)

EPL for October 26-27

Crystal Palace (1-0-7) v Arsenal (6-1-1), Selhurst Park, South Norwood, England, Saturday, October 26, 10.45pm

You never quite know what’s going to happen in the week after a manager has been replaced. I’ve always loved Ian Holloway as a manager – passionate, committed, hard-working – but it’s always struck me that a man so highly strung wasn’t cut-out for the pressures of football management. Ultimately, Palace added quantity and not quality to a squad that limped to promotion and Holloway's assertion that the spirit has gone is underlined by some lifeless displays. While the search for a new manager is underway for Crystal Palace, the season rolls on and Keith Millen, Holloway’s number two, faces the daunting prospect of being in charge for the visit of league leaders Arsenal for this early kick-off. He’ll have a mighty task lifting a squad who’ve scored only twice and conceded 13 in a run of five straight defeats, culminating in Monday’s 4-1 home thrashing at the hands of Fulham. Palace and Sunderland are the only EPL sides yet to keep a clean sheet this season. The Eagles have also lost their last five league matches. The last time they lost six league games in a row was March 2001.

Arsenal looks to have the ideal platform from which to bounce back after a midweek Champions League defeat to Borussia Dortmund. The Gunners didn’t play badly against Jurgen Klopp’s side – they just came up against a slightly more efficient and streetwise team whose manager got things spot on – while they continue to look good in the league. The loss to Dortmund ended a run of 12 unbeaten matches in all competitions (W10, D2). Arsenal has scored in their last 13 Premier League games (the longest current run in the league) but have yet to keep a clean sheet on their travels in the league this season. The Gunners have scored three times as many league goals as Palace this season (18-6) while Aaron Ramsey has scored more goals for Arsenal (9) in all competitions than the entire Crystal Palace squad combined (7). Arsenal won the last Premier League meeting against Palace 5-1 in February 2005. In that game, the Gunners fielded a 16-man squad with no British players for the first time. Palace has not beaten Arsenal at home, in any competition, since a 1-0 top-flight victory in November 1979.

Confirmed bets

Crystal Palace v Arsenal -1 (two units @ $1.85) WIN (0-2)

Southampton v Fulham -2.5 (one unit @ $2.05) WIN (2-0)

Manchester United (to nil) v Stoke City (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (3-2)

Aston Villa v Everton BTS (one unit @ $1.62) LOSE (0-2)

Leans

Crystal Palace v Arsenal +3.5 $2.50 LOSE (0-2)

Aston Villa v Everton +3.5 $3.10 LOSE (0-2)

Norwich City v Cardiff City DRAW $3.40 WIN (0-0)

Liverpool v West Bromwich Albion (double chance) $2.90 LOSE (4-1)

Southampton v Fulham (correct score 1-0) $7.50 LOSE (2-0)

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