Daily tips for October 24

Note: Bets will now be listed in three categories on the Last at Cannington blog – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).

Racing for October 24

Horse racing: Ballarat (Vic), Hawkesbury (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Geraldton (WA). Harness racing: Redcliffe (Qld), Shepparton (Vic), Penrith (NSW). Greyhound racing: Albion Park (Qld), Angle Park (SA, Dapto (NSW), Grafton (NSW), Hobart (Tas), Horsham (Vic), Maitland (NSW), Mandurah (WA), Sandown Park (Vic), Shepparton (Vic), Traralgon (Vic).

I’ve mentioned in the past the farcical situation that exists at Flemington that doesn’t allow non-Flemington-trained horses to take part in Friday’s jumpouts up the famous straight. It’s great to hear Queensland trainer Liam Birchley echoing my stance on racenet.com.au today. Birchley has travelled to Melbourne with his five-time stakes winning filly Missy Longstocking for a crack at Australia’s best three-year-old sprinters. He was immediately rewarded when the filly posted an effortless three-length victory in the Group III Thoroughbred Club Stakes (1200m) on Caulfield Guineas day. Now the trainer is eyeing off the Group I Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m) on Saturday week and wants to give her “a look at the straight course before her toughest test to date”. He’s also paid the $800 first acceptance fee for the VRC Sprint Classic on November 9.

"I thought we were backwards in Queensland! The excuse I was given is that only Flemington-trained horses or internationals can take part in those jumpouts up the straight because they didn’t want too many horses using the track,” Birchley said. “A race like the Coolmore Stud Stakes is pivotal in a horse’s career particularly for ones with residual value. The Flemington straight is something they often need a good look at before they can produce their best. Surely the VRC wants the best horses competing at their top for a race of this significance? I realise it’s too late for my filly this year but I hope they change it soon.” Anthony Cummings endured the same battle last year. He wanted Fontelina and Magnier to have a jumpout before taking part in their respective races on Derby Day but was denied.

Confirmed bets

Ballarat R1 #5 Stingray (win) LOSE (2nd)

Ballarat R5 #2 Evie Rose (win) 1st ($2.90)
Hawkesbury R1 #5 Oils (win) LOSE (U/P) 
Hawkesbury R5 #2 Sigismund (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.50) 

Hawkesbury R7 #4 Papillon Rouge (win) 1st ($1.80)

Leans

Ballarat R3 #1 Another Girl (win) LOSE (U/P)

Hawkesbury R2 #9 Rock My Fuji (E/W) LOSE (U/P)Hawkesbury R3 #7 Miss Stratophonic (win) 1st ($2.40)

Hawkesbury R4 1/3 Exacta (1/3 $4.20)
Ipswich R3 #1 Honoursan (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.30)

Ipswich R6 #3 Victorveto (E/W 1x2) 1st ($9.00/$2.50)

NHL for October 24

Boston Bruins (5-2-0, 10 pts) @ Buffalo Sabres (1-8-1, 3 pts), First Niagara Center, Buffalo, NY, Thursday, October 24, 11.10am

There are just two games on today’s card and, with a change of fortune after a couple of brutal outcomes yesterday, the two obvious plays should payout. With the Buffalo Sabres off to the worst start in franchise history, some are already questioning the job security of coach Ron Rolston. This match-up against the Boston Bruins poses another major challenge for the offensively-inept Sabres. Buffalo (1-8-1), still seeking its first home victory, clings to a shootout result over the New York Islanders on October 15 as its only result. Rolston had his interim tag removed in May after taking over for the fired Lindy Ruff in February. Buffalo is 16-19-6 under Rolston dating from February 21, with seven of those victories coming in shootouts. Saturday’s 4-2 loss to Colorado was only the third multi-goal game this season for the Sabres, whose 1.2 goals per game is the league’s lowest average. They were scoreless on three power-plays, falling to 3 for 35 (8.6 percent) on the season. The Sabres are also being outscored 13-1 in the first period compared to 14-11 in the second and third.

Buffalo’s struggles appear likely to continue against a Bruins (5-2-0) team that allows 1.4 goals per game. Boston has also won all three of its road contests by a total score of 11-3 after a 5-0 victory at Tampa Bay on Sunday. David Krejčí (pictured, who tied for fourth on the team in 2012-13 with 10 goals) tallied his first of this season to extend his points streak to four games. Twelve different Bruins each recorded one point against the Lightning. Tuukka Rask stopped 23 shots for his first shutout, but he struggled the last time he faced Buffalo. He surrendered a career-high six goals in a 7-4 home loss on January 31. Thomas Vanek, who has 18 points over his last 12 games against the Bruins, accounted for three goals and two assists. Ryan Miller is 5-2 in his last seven starts versus Boston with a 1.83 goals-against average. Jarome Iginla, who has yet to tally a goal with the Bruins despite 24 shots in seven games, has scored in three of his last four against Buffalo. These teams have split 28 meetings since November 8, 2008.

Confirmed bets

Bruins WIN NT @ Sabres (two units @ $1.88) WIN (5-2)

Senators @ Red Wings WIN (one unit @ $1.70) LOSE (6-1)

Leans

Bruins -1.5 @ Sabres $2.90 WIN (5-2)

Bruins @ Sabres -5 $1.95 LOSE (5-2)

MLB (World Series) for October 24

Game 1: St Louis Cardinals @ Boston Red Sox, Fenway Park, Boston, MT, Thursday, October 23, 11.10am

Let the battle begin! The St Louis Cardinals have won a pair of World Series since falling to the Boston Red Sox in 2004 and will make their fourth trip to the Fall Classic in 10 years looking for revenge. The Red Sox completed a remarkable turnaround from last place in 2012 and will try to take down the Cardinals again when they host Game 1 of the World Series here. David Ortiz is the only player left from Boston’s sweep in 2004 and is still piling up key post-season hits. St Louis’ lone holdovers from that 2004 showdown are Mike Matheny (who went from starting catcher to manager) and Yadier Molina, who went from Matheny’s back-up to one of the best catchers in the game. One of Boston’s big advantages in the American League playoffs was on the base paths – an area Molina regularly controls. The Cardinals and Red Sox are stacked up and down the roster and tied for the most wins in the majors during the regular season with 97.

Cardinals RH Adam Wainwright (2-1, 1.57 ERA) served as the closer on St Louis’ 2006 World Champion squad and was forced to watch the 2011 team win from the bench while recovering from Tommy John surgery. The 32-year-old led the National League with 19 wins during the regular season and was spectacular during the NL playoffs, striking out 20 batters while issuing one walk in 23 total innings. Wainwright’s lone road playoff start was his only loss, allowing two runs on six hits in seven innings at Los Angeles. Red Sox LH Jon Lester (2-1, 2.33) allowed two or fewer runs in each of his three postseason starts and 10 of the last 13 going back to the regular season. The 29-year-old won the clinching game of the 2007 World Series in Colorado, allowing three hits in 5 2/3 scoreless innings. Lester is 4-4 with a 2.49 ERA in 11 career post-season games and nine starts. Weather could be a factor. Temperatures are supposed to dip into the low 40s and rain is in the forecast.

Confirmed bet

Boston WIN (two units @ $1.84) WIN (1-8)

Lean

Game total +7 $1.80 WIN (1-8)

Football (UCL matchday 3) for October 24

Group D: CSKA Moscow v Manchester City, Arena Khimki, Moscow, Russia, Thursday, October 23, 3am

The biggest talking point ahead of his Group D Matchday 3 UEFA Champions League fixture has been the state of the pitch at the Khimki Arena (pictured). Earlier this month, UEFA ordered CSKA to stage their home game against Viktoria Plzeň in St Petersburg because of the condition of the playing surface at the 18,000-capacity stadium. The pitch is in poor condition and rutted after heavy rain in the Russian capital. CSKA have not played at the ground since August 30 and there has been no game there at all for a month. The all-weather surface at the Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow is unavailable due to rebuilding work in preparation for the 2018 World Cup. CSKA were in the process of beginning contingency plans to move the match to Krasnodar, 835 miles south of the capital until UEFA confirmed 11 days ago that the pitch could be used. The mercury will also be close to 0°C for this match, meaning goals will be mighty tough to score.

Remarkably, CSKA have failed to score in their last five league games, a run that has included four defeats. Given this match is a few levels above their domestic competition, chances are going to be fewer and they could snatch at the ones they do get while former Premier League players Zoran Tosic and Mark Gonzalez will be keen to impress. Manchester City will go into this match without their captain Vincent Kompany. That is anything but ideal in a match the Premier League side really can’t afford to lose. Joleon Lescott could partner Matija Nastasic at the back although Javi Garcia has played there this season too. David Silva is likely to start the game and his link up play with Sergio Aguero could be vital. Despite their relatively patchy domestic form City have failed to score only once this season, in a 0-0 draw at Stoke, while their defence will rarely come up against an attack as devoid of confidence as that of CSKA.

Confirmed bets

CSKA Moscow v Manchester City -2.5 (two units @ $1.91) LOSE (1-2)

Bayern Munich 2+ v Viktoria Plzen (two units @ $1.67) WIN (5-0)

Manchester United v Real Sociedad BTS (one unit @ $1.80) LOSE (1-0)

Leans

CSKA Moscow v Manchester City (1-1) $8.00 LOSE (1-2)

Real Madrid v Juventus DRAW $3.80 LOSE (2-1)

Galatasaray v FC Copenhagen NO BET (3-1)

Anderlecht v Paris Saint-Germain -1 $2.15 WIN (0-5)

Bayer Leverkusen v Shakhtar Donetsk (Double Chance) $1.73 LOSE (4-0)

Benfica WIN $1.75 v Olympiakos LOSE (1-1)

• Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.