Daily tips for November 1

Note: Bets are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).


A-League (round 4) for November 1

Western Sydney Wanderers (1-2-0) v Adelaide United (1-1-1), Pirtek Stadium, Parramatta, Friday, November 1, 7.30pm

All the public money is with the Wanderers here but the visitors Adelaide United will be confident of taking something home from the opening game of round four in the A-League. If the brief history between the two clubs is anything to go by then there should be a goals here. Tony Popovic's side hit six and four past the Reds in their last two matches last season, including a 6-1 drubbing in Sydney. The home side head into this one full of confidence after a comprehensive 2-0 win in the derby last weekend and should be boosted by the return of classy midfielder Aaron Mooy (concussion). Winger Youssouf Hersi is out due to a foot injury, with Labinot Haliti or Shannon Cole likely to slot in on the right wing. The Wanderers squad has even greater depth than their debut campaign meaning some of their stars can't even crack it for a spot on the bench!

Adelaide have shown encouraging signs over the first three weeks but dished up their worst performance so far in going down 1-0 to champions Central Coast last weekend. The Reds are sweating over the fitness of leading scorer Jeronimo, who missed the loss to the Mariners, and playmaker Marcelo Carrusca (groin). The pair have trained strongly this week and could make the trip to Sydney. Defender Cassio (quad), Bruce Djite (ankle) and Daniel Bowles (ankle) are others under injury clouds and are expected to miss the match. The likes of Jon McKain, Nigel Boogaard and Osama Malik will need to keep a close watch on the 34-year-old Japanese playmaker Shinji Ono (pictured) or it could be another tough night for the Adelaide defence. After a great performance in round 1, Adelaide have found the going tough in the past fortnight, with coach Josep Gombau pleading for time for his style to take shape. The Reds have no issues retaining possession, but they’ve rarely threatened goal.

Confirmed bet

Western Sydney Wanderers WIN v Adelaide United (two units @ $1.63) WIN (2-1)

Leans

Western Sydney Wanderers v Adelaide United +2.5 $1.75 WIN (2-1)

Western Sydney Wanderers v Adelaide United (correct score 2-1) $8.00 WIN (2-1)

Racing for November 1

Horse racing: Wodonga (Vic), Bathurst (NSW), Moree (NSW), Moonee Valley – night), Kilcoy (Qld). Harness racing: Redcliffe (Qld), Penrith (NSW), Mildura (Vic). Greyhound racing:  Bendigo (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Gawler (SA), Geelong (Vic), Casino (NSW), Mandurah (WA), The Gardens (NSW), Wagga (NSW).

It’s the calm before the storm – a modest Friday of racing lies ahead of tomorrow’s opening day of the Melbourne Cup Carnival at Flemington. After a decidedly cool opening to spring, the weather looks perfect for Saturday with a temperature of approximately 28C expected. I often caution against listening to the advice of experts in the mainstream media, who come out of the woodwork at this time of year with their insights. My advice, as always, is to ignore them all (and that includes comments from trainers, owners and jockeys). When it comes to experts, my favourite spruiker of the Melbourne Cup Carnival is Flemington track manager ‘Misinformation’ Mick Goodie. His latest gem came this morning when he ridiculed those who think dead (5) tracks should be the norm in the spring.

With a completely straight face, Goodie then explained to the Racing Network that 5mls of water had been applied to the Flemington track last night, with the aim of presenting a dead (4), improving to a good (3), during the day. Unless Goodie has been promoted to God-like status, there is yet to be a watering system devised that ensures an even spread of water across a race track, so punters are guaranteed that there’ll be fast and slow alleys, as is the case every year. I also expect that the trend of on-pace/leader bias will dominate on Derby and Cup days, with run-on/backmarker bias taking over later in the week. And as always, I recommend to punters (even once-a-year Cup tipsters) to do your own homework, and then you’ll only have yourself to blame if your tips don’t come home. No-one punishes the ‘experts’ if they’re wrong, so they have no interest in whether or not you win or lose. This is the hardest time of the year to find winners with confidence.

Confirmed bets

Wodonga R2 Exacta 7/2 (two units) WIN ($2.00)

Moree R3 #3 Kyogle Town (win) LOSE (2nd)

Leans

Bathurst R4 #11 Empress Ayleah (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Bathurst R7 #1 Hollywood Drive (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.40)

Wodonga R5 #7 Yougopowpow (E/W 1x2) 3rd (NTD)
Moree R5 #1 Booked Out (E/W 1x4) 1st ($2.40/$1.30)

Kilcoy R1 #5 Lisa Fashionista (win) 1st ($1.70)

Kilcoy R4 #1 Bam’s Boy (win) LOSE (U/P)

Moonee Valley R4 #10 Use The Lot (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.50)

Moonee Valley R7 #12 Paige’s Boy (E/W 1x3)

Note: My Derby Day preview will be posted by 11am tomorrow (Saturday)

NBA for November 1

Golden State Warriors (1-0, 0-0 away) @ Los Angeles Clippers (0-1, 0-0 home), STAPLES Center, Los Angeles, CA, Friday, November 1, 1.40pm

The Los Angeles Clippers endured a disappointing season debut under new coach Doc Rivers, especially at the defensive end. The Clippers will look to avoid falling into an early hole in the Pacific Division when they host the Golden State Warriors on Halloween evening. Rivers built strong defensive teams with the Boston Celtics but watched his Clippers struggle mightily in a season-opening loss to the LA Lakers. The Clippers held a slim lead for most of its opener before being blown out in the fourth quarter by the Lakers’ bench in a 116-103 setback. Blake Griffin scored 19 points but struggled on the defensive end while the Clippers were outrebounded. Los Angeles is working in newcomers J.J. Redick and Jared Dudley and had the two split time with Matt Barnes and Jamal Crawford. Despite missing eight of his 13 shots, Chris Paul added 15 points and 11 assists. The ‘over’ is 5-0 in the past five between these rivals while the Clippers are a lousy 1-6 ATS in their past seven meetings against Golden State.

The Warriors had the opposite experience against the Lakers in their season opener, getting 38 points from Klay Thompson in a 125-94 blowout. Golden State controlled the glass despite restricting its entire frontcourt to 27 minutes or fewer. Golden State finished second to the Clippers in the Pacific Division in 2012-13 and is looking to challenge for the top spot this season after bringing in Andre Iguodala (pictured) to supplement the perimeter defence. Iguodala only scored seven points against the Lakers but helped spread the defence for Thompson while providing one of the highlights of the night on a behind-the-back give-and-go exchange with David Lee. The Warriors led the NBA in three-point percentage in 2012-13 and showed no signs of slowing down by burying 15-of-27 from beyond the arc in the opener, led by Thompson’s 5-of-7 performance. Golden State took three of the four meetings last season, with the lone loss coming at Los Angeles on January 5, 115-89. They averaged 106.0 points and shot 40.7 per cent on 3s in those games.

Confirmed bets

Golden State Warriors @ LA Clippers +204.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (115-126)

Leans

New York Knicks +8 $1.91 @ Chicago Bulls WIN (81-82)

Golden State Warriors +6 $1.91 @ LA Clippers LOSE (115-126)

Golden State Warriors TT +98.5 $1.87 @ LA Clippers WIN (115-126)

College Football (week 10) for November 1

Pac-12: Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2, 3-1 Pac-12) @ Washington State Cougars (4-4, 2-3 Pac-12), Martin Stadium, Pullman, WA, Friday, November 1, 1.30pm

Arizona State can take another step toward being the South Division representative in the Pac-12 title game when it visits pass-happy Washington State for a Halloween showdown. The Sun Devils hold a one-game lead over three teams in the division race and are averaging 56.3 points in three conference victories. Ironically, the Cougars have allowed an average of 56.3 in their three Pac-12 defeats. Arizona State made a statement in its last game, routing then-No. 20 Washington 53-24 for arguably its biggest win in two seasons under coach Todd Graham (pictured). But to keep rolling, Arizona State will have to do something it has struggled with in the past – winning on the road while making a rare visit to the cold of Washington. The Sun Devils have been solid at home under Graham, going 4-2 last season and 5-0 this season. Arizona State had a few bumps on the road last season and the Sun Devils haven’t spent much time away from the desert this season but have yet to win, losing 42-28 to then-No. 5 Stanford and 37-34 to Notre Dame in a neutral-site game.

Coach Mike Leach’s Washington State team is also coming off a bye and will be facing a ranked opponent for the second straight time after losing 62-38 at No. 2 Oregon on October 19. The Cougars have dropped three of four, allowing an average of 56.3 points in those defeats. They almost hit that mark last season in a 46-7 loss at Arizona State, which has won eight of nine in the series while averaging 35.0 points and holding Washington State to 16.0 per game. Washington State isn’t even attempting to establish a running game as Connor Halliday is being asked to air it out. The junior set school and conference records with 557 passing yards against the Ducks but was also picked off four times. Arizona State has a versatile attack with senior running back Marion Grice leading the nation with 18 total TDs. The Sun Devils are 5-1 ATS in their past six conference games while the Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 games against teams with winning records.

Confirmed bets

Arizona State Sun Devils @ Washington State Cougars +70 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (55-21)

Rice Owls @ North Texas Mean Green -52.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (16-28)

Leans

South Florida Bulls @ Houston Cougars +54 WIN (23-35)

UL Monroe Warhawks at Troy Trojans +59.5 $1.91 WIN (49-37)

Rice Owls @ North Texas Mean Green -3.5 $1.91 WIN (16-28)

NHL for November 1

Buffalo Sabres (2-11-1, 5pts) @ New York Rangers (4-7-0, 8pts), Madison Square Garden, New York, NY, Friday, November 1, 10.10am

Neither the Sabres nor Rangers have enjoyed a terribly successful start to their respective campaigns so a win will be premium here for these cross-state rivals. Having matched their worst-ever start, the Sabres hope Matt Moulson can provide a spark. If his Buffalo debut was any indication, he should be able to help – provided he isn’t traded again! Moulson and the Sabres will face a Rangers club looking for its first home victory. The Sabres (2-11-1) come off a 4-3 home defeat to Dallas on Monday as they were unable to knock off Lindy Ruff, their winningest coach, after firing him in February. Moulson's debut provided a bright spot, with the forward scoring two goals after being acquired from the Islanders on Sunday in exchange for Thomas Vanek and a pair of draft picks. It's unclear how Moulson fits into Buffalo's plans past this season as his contract expires after 2013-14. For now, however, he appeared to fit in nicely on the team's top line with Cody Hodgson and Tyler Ennis. They’ve been outscored 19-2 in the first period, compared to 21-20 in the second and third.

The Rangers (4-7-0) made their long-awaited home debut on Monday (a result of ongoing renovations at Madison Square Garden) and lost 2-0 to Montreal. They sandwiched two road wins around that contest, the most recent a 3-2 victory over the Islanders on Tuesday. Forward Benoit Pouliot’s winning goal was his second goal in three games. New York’s two other scores came from Chris Kreider and Ryan McDonagh on power plays. The club had been 1 for 15 on power plays over their previous five games. More opportunities could be available against the Sabres, who have allowed five goals on 24 power-play chances over the last seven contests. Buffalo has scored one goal on 20 power-play chances away from home. Both teams are among the lowest-scoring in the league, with New York tallying 18 goals and Buffalo 23. Center Derek Stepan, who has seven points to trail Brad Richards (nine) for the team lead, has two goals and two assists in his last three meetings with the Sabres. This looks like a barren affair.

Confirmed bets

Buffalo Sabres @ New York Rangers -5 (one unit @ $1.74) WIN (0-2)

Nashville Predators @ Phoenix Coyotes WIN (one unit @ $1.68) WIN (4-5)

Leans

Anaheim Ducks @ Boston Bruins WIN $1.72 -5 $2.00 WIN (2-3)

Buffalo Sabres @ New York Rangers 1P -1.5 $1.67 WIN (0-1)

Nashville Predators @ Phoenix Coyotes TT +2.5 $1.66 WIN (4-5)

NFL (week 9) for November 1

Cincinnati Bengals (6-2, 2-2 away) @ Miami Dolphins (3-4, 1-2 home), Sun Life Stadium, Miami, FL, Friday, November 1, 11.25am

In the interests of transparency, let me place my NFL allegiance to the Dolphins on the record, but I’m more than happy to recommend bettors lean to the visitors here. The Cincinnati Bengals are threatening to turn the AFC North into a runaway as they eye a fifth straight win when they visit Miami for the NFL’s Thursday Night Football. Cincinnati is coming off a superb performance, which featured a career-high five touchdown passes from Andy Dalton in a 49-9 mauling of the New York Jets. One of Cincinnati's concerns had been its reliance on the combination of Dalton to standout wide receiver A.J. Green, but fellow wideout Marvin Jones (pictured) went a long way to allaying those worries by hauling in a franchise-record four scoring catches in last Sunday’s rout. Dalton has rebounded from a pair of middling efforts against Cleveland and New England to throw for 1034 yards with 11 TDs and two interceptions in his past three. The Bengals are also getting it done on defence, tied for fifth in the league with 18.0 points allowed per game, but will likely be without linebacker Rey Maualuga (knee) for at least three weeks.

Miami, meanwhile, is in the midst of a major spiral, dropping its fourth straight game after blowing a 14-point half-time lead in a 27-17 defeat at New England on Sunday. So instead of thrusting themselves back into the AFC East race, the Dolphins are approaching must-win territory if they hope to remain in post-season contention. Wide receiver Brandon Gibson suffered a season-ending knee injury in the loss and, following the game, center Mike Pouncey was served with a grand jury subpoena in connection with the murder investigation of former Patriot Aaron Hernandez. The Dolphins churned out a season-high 156 yards rushing but still have not been able to protect quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who has been sacked a league-worst 32 times. The away team has won the past three meetings, including the Dolphins' 17-13 win in Week 5 last season, but the road team is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings and the Bengals are 12-4-1 ATS in their past 17 games overall. As the pressure for wins has increased, Tannehill has thrown five TDs in the past two games, but seven of his nine interceptions have come in the past four.

Confirmed bet

Cincinnati Bengals WIN (two units @ $1.60) LOSE (20-22)

Leans

Game total +43 $1.91 LOSE (20-22)

• Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.

Daily tips for October 31

Note: Bets are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).


College Football (week 10) for October 31

AAC: Cincinnati Bearcats (5-2, 2-1 AAC) @ Memphis Tigers (1-5, 0-3 AAC), Liberty Bowl, Memphis, TN, Thursday, October, 31, 11am

Week 10 in College Football opens with a genuine head-scratcher. Cincinnati has preyed on the bottom of the American Athletic Conference after enduring a great deal of adversity during its non-conference schedule. The Bearcats lost quarterback Munchie Legaux to a season-ending knee injury in the second game of the season. Two weeks later, Cincinnati was dealt a more severe blow when guard Ben Flick was killed and two other players were injured in a car accident following a victory at Miami (Ohio). The Bearcats lost their first game following the accident, but have rebounded with home triumphs over Temple and Connecticut – teams that have yet to win a conference game. The Tigers are also searching for their first AAC victory, but held second-half leads on co-conference leaders Central Florida and Houston before falling in each contest. Memphis took its third straight loss in a 34-29 setback to SMU on October 19, trailing by 31 before scoring the final 26 points.

Cincinnati receiver Mark Barr, one of the two players injured in the accident, was released from the hospital last week. Brendon Kay, who took over for Legaux following his injury, is completing 79.4 per cent of his passes in conference play and tied a career high with four touchdown passes in the Bearcats’ 41-16 victory over Connecticut. The defense did its part as well against the Huskies, setting season highs for interceptions (three), sacks (eight) and tackles for loss (11). Despite allowing 460 yards to SMU, the Tigers rank 13th in the FBS for total defence and are tied for 34th in scoring defense after finishing 51st and 80th, respectively, in 2012. Linebacker Ryan Coleman played a key role in the Tigers’ second-half surge, tying an NCAA record with two fumble returns for touchdowns. Memphis, which gives up an average of 80 penalty yards (the second-highest mark in FBS), drew nine flags for 110 yards against SMU – the second time it has surrendered at least 100 yards in penalties.

Confirmed bet

Game total -44.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (34-21)

Leans

Memphis WIN $2.05 LOSE (34-21)

NHL for October 31

Toronto Maple Leafs (9-4-0, 18pts) @ Calgary Flames (5-4-2), 12pts), Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB, Thursday, October 31, 11.10am

The Toronto Maple Leafs have started the 20-13-14 season impressively but have lost seven straight in Calgary, the last five in regulation. Their last win there came on December 27, 2002. Phil Kessel (pictured) has figured in 10 of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ last 14 goals. With seven goals and three assists in the last four games, he’ll keep firing away when the Leafs’ road trip takes them to Calgary to face a Flames team seeking its fourth straight home win. Kessel scored twice and added two assists in Tuesday’s 4-0 win over Edmonton as the Leafs (9-4-0) started a three-game trip on an impressive note. He’s tied for second in the league with 18 points, and the four-point night moved the Leafs into sole possession of the Atlantic Division lead. James Reimer stopped 43 shots for his first shutout of the season and improved to 4-0-0 as the Leafs were outshot for a 10th straight game. He made 37 saves in Saturday’s 4-1 win over Pittsburgh. The Leafs have won three of four and are tied for fourth in the league in scoring (3.31).

The Flames (5-4-2) are having some issues keeping the puck out of their net, ranking 29th in goals-against average (3.46). They’ve allowed three or more goals in seven of 11 games, and are the league’s only team yet to hold an opponent to fewer than two goals in a game this season. One of those two-goal games came in a 5-2 home win on Saturday against Washington. Michael Cammalleri had two goals and an assist and Kris Russell had one of each to help Calgary improve to 3-0-1 on home ice. Cammalleri has three goals and two assists in four games after missing the start of the season with a hand injury. Calgary had allowed 17 goals in its previous four games. Things won't get any easier defensively with captain Mark Giordano out. The Flames announced Tuesday that the defenseman will miss 6-8 weeks with a broken ankle. He took a shot off the right ankle in the second period at Los Angeles on October 21. Winger Lee Stempniak is also out after he suffered a broken bone in his right foot blocking a shot last week in Dallas.

Confirmed bets

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Calgary Flames +5.5 (two units @ $1.83) WIN (4-2)

San Jose Sharks WIN @ Los Angeles Kings (one unit @ $1.77) LOSE (3-4)

Leans

Toronto Maple Leafs WIN NT $2.38 @ Calgary Flames WIN (4-2)

Boston Bruins WIN $2.05 LOSE @ Pittsburgh Penguins -5.5 $1.70 LOSE (2-3)

Detroit Red Wings @ Vancouver Canucks NO LEAN


MLB (World Series) for October 31

Game 6 (Boston leads 3-2): St Louis Cardinals @ Boston Red Sox, Fenway Park, Boston, MT, Thursday, October 31, 11.10am

The Red Sox last won a World Series at home in September 1918. The Boston Red Sox rode David Ortiz to a World Series lead and are hoping the slugger has one more great game left this season. Ortiz will take his .733 World Series batting average into Game 6 when the Red Sox host the St Louis Cardinals with a chance to close out the series. Ortiz matched a World Series record by reaching base safely in nine straight plate appearances and contributed three hits and an RBI to Game 5’s 3-1 victory. Ortiz (11) needs two more hits to tie the record for a single World Series shared by three others. The Cardinals will not only have to face Ortiz here but also Mike Napoli, with Ortiz moving back to the designated hitter spot and Napoli coming off the bench to play first base in the American League park. St Louis could use some offence of its own after being limited to a total of three runs in the last two games. The bottom of the order is providing very little and the top two hitters (Matt Carpenter and Shane Robinson) combined to go 0-for-7 with three strikeouts in Game 5.

Cardinals RH Michael Wacha (1-0, 3.00 ERA) is 4-0 with a 1.00 ERA in four post-season starts but surrendered more than one run for the first time since September 19 in Game 2 at Boston, yielding two runs on three hits and four walks. The 22-year-old needed a season-high 114 pitches to complete the six frames. Wacha allowed a two-run homer to Ortiz that briefly put the Red Sox on top in that contest. Red Sox RH John Lackey (0-1, 3.68) went up against Wacha in Game 2 and left with a 2-1 lead after 6 1/3 innings despite being at just 95 pitches. Craig Breslow came on and allowed the inherited runners to score, saddling Lackey with the loss. The veteran came out of the bullpen in Game 4 and tossed a scoreless eighth on his between-starts throw day. Matt Holliday has both of the Cardinals’ home runs in the series and is 1-for-10 against Lackey in his career, with the lone hit a Game 2 triple. The Cardinals are 3-7 in their past 10 playoff road games while the Red Sox are 4-0 in the past four Games 6 of a series.

Confirmed bet

Boston WIN (one unit @ $1.87) WIN (1-6)

Leans

Boston TT +3.5 $2.00 WIN (1-6)

Game total -7 $1.77 PUSH (1-6)

NBA for October 31

Memphis Grizzlies @ San Antonio Spurs, AT & T Center, San Antonio, TX, Thursday, October 31, 11.40am

Two sides that are again likely to feature in the championship picture kick-off their 2013-14 campaigns here. The San Antonio Spurs spent the off-season with the pain of just missing the franchise’s fifth NBA title. They take the first steps toward recovery when they host the Memphis Grizzlies, the team they swept in the Western Conference finals before losing to the Miami Heat in an equally tight championship series. The cores of both teams return, although Memphis has a new coach with former assistant David Joerger taking over for Lionel Hollins. Both teams are expected to again compete in the talent-laden West, and San Antonio will do its best to shake its post-season heartbreak. The teams split their four regular-season games last year while the Grizzlies have not won a season opener since the franchise moved to Memphis before the 2001-02 season – a stat that is likely to continue here. The ‘over’ is 11-5 in the past 16 meetings in San Antonio while the Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in the past six games.

Memphis returns all the key pieces from last year’s team that set a franchise record for wins. Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph are one of the league’s most formidable frontcourt duos, and Mike Conley has become a dependable point guard. The Grizzlies had a relatively quiet offseason but added big man Kosta Koufos and sharpshooter Mike Miller. The Grizzlies also re-signed one of their top defenders in Tony Allen. The swingman inked a four-year contract worth $20 million. San Antonio, the NBA’s model franchise for consistency didn’t do anything to shake that label in the off-season. Coach Gregg Popovich (pictured with Tony Parker) is back for his 18th season, and Tim Duncan is right behind him with 17. With those two around, San Antonio has long been one of the league’s most difficult destinations for opponents, and that was no different last year when the Spurs went 35-6 at home in the regular season. The Spurs did their part to keep their core together by signing Manu Ginobili to a two-year deal worth $14.5 million.

Confirmed bets

Memphis Grizzlies @ San Antonio Spurs WIN (two units @ $1.42) WIN (94-101)

Portland Trailblazers WIN @ Phoenix Suns (1.5 units @ $1.46) LOSE (91-104)

Charlotte Bobcats @ Houston Rockets -13 (one unit @ $1.91) PUSH (83-96)

Leans

Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers -196 $1.91 LOSE (110-116)

Brooklyn Nets WIN $1.65 @ Cleveland Cavaliers LOSE (94-98)

Washington Wizards @ Detroit Pistons NO LEAN
Milwaukee Bucks @ New York Knicks -195 WIN (83-90)
Atlanta Hawks +6 $1.91 @ Dallas Mavericks LOSE (109-118)

Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 $1.91 @ Utah Jazz LOSE (101-98)

Denver Nuggets @ Sacramento Kings WIN $1.65 (WIN 88-90)

LA Lakers @ Golden State Warriors +206 $1.91 WIN (94-125)

Football (Capital One Cup) for October 31

Fourth round: Newcastle United v Manchester City, St James’ Park, Newcastle, UK, Thursday, October 31, 6.45am

With Newcastle and Manchester City both smarting from late defeats against fierce EPL rivals on Sunday, there is little danger of either club not giving high priority to this League Cup fourth-round tie. City’s calamitous loss at Chelsea (their third Premier League away defeat of the season) has left them six places and points off the top of the table. Their flawless display in a 4-0 win over Newcastle on the opening weekend is already a distant memory, even if manager Manuel Pellegrini maintains his side are playing well.  The exception, of course, is in defence, where Joe Hart’s loss of form and the unsettling absence of captain Vincent Kompany are proving costly. Kompany remains a doubt with a groin injury but Jack Rodwell is fit after hamstring problems. Goalkeeper Costel Pantilimon is expected to replace Hart, as he did for the previous round. Manchester City have won the last eight meetings and are unbeaten in 14 (W12, D2) since Newcastle won 1-0 at home in the Premier League in September 2005.

Pellegrini felt Manchester City were unlucky to lose at Chelsea, a sentiment echoed by Newcastle manager Alan Pardew (pictured) about his side following the Wear-Tyne defeat by Sunderland. Pardew insists the League Cup is a priority for his side this season, viewing it as a realistic opportunity to win silverware. Newcastle are vying to reach the fifth round of this competition for the first time since 2006. They have lost their last three League Cup ties against top-flight opposition, conceding 10 goals in the process. City have loftier ambitions than the League Cup, but the importance of Wednesday’s tie in the wake of recent away results will not be lost on them. Defender Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa is available after suspension; Fabricio Coloccini will not be rushed back from a groin problem while Steven Taylor is still out with a hamstring injury. This is the fourth meeting of these clubs in the League Cup – Manchester City won 2-1 in the 1976 final and also progressed from their fourth-round tie in 1994 after a replay.

Confirmed bets

Newcastle United v Manchester City +2.5 (two units @ $1.65)

Tottenham Hotspur 2+ v Hull City (one unit @ $1.92)

Leans

Newcastle United v Manchester City BTS $1.70

Tottenham Hotspur v Hull City (2-0) $5.25

Rugby League (World Cup) for October 31

Group D: USA v Cook Islands, Memorial Stadium, Bristol, UK, Thursday, October 31, 7am

The Cook Islands have a population of almost 11,000 people while more than 313.9 million people call the United States home. However, the Pacific islanders will enter this Group D Rugby League World Cup fixture as warm favourites as both nations eye a debut tournament victory. The USA Tomahawks are playing in their maiden World Cup after falling just short at recent attempts, while the best previous result for the Cook Islanders was a draw with Lebanon in their only World Cup appearance in 2000. The Tomahawks come into this one in winning form, having upset a Catalans-packed French side in their trial match, while The Cooks were trounced 50-0 by a rampant Kiwis outfit. The Tomahawks will be looking for skipper and creative Parramatta Eels back-rower Joe Paulo to provide some spark, and for Wests Tiger Eddy Pettybourne and Panther Clint Newton to add some go-forward. The team has had little time to gel with just two training sessions but will be hoping experienced coach and current Cowboys assistant Terry Matterson will have been able to work some magic in the two weeks since being appointed.

Former Knight Zeb Taia will be one to watch for The Cooks, along with Panthers playmaker Isaac John. Experienced winger, former Eel and Titan Matt Petersen, also makes his way into the squad from his current base in the Gold Coast competition. Former North Sydney Bears star, and Origin and Kangaroos forward David Fairleigh, will bring plenty of top-line experience to the squad. He has three wins from four games in charge of the national side, including a runners-up finish in the 2009 Pacific Cup. Another standout for The Cooks is Roosters back-rower Dylan Napa (pictured). He may not have spent a huge amount of time on the field in the NRL this year but he sure made an impact in those seven games. He put on plenty of big shots, none bigger than a memorable bone-rattler on Sharks skipper Paul Gallen in a clear sign he will not be overawed by big names or the big stage. Tomahawks ball-runners will no doubt be making sure they know whereabouts Napa is when they’re taking on the line. These minnow v minnow battles can be highly unpredictable but The Cooks have a clear edge in experience and preparation.

Confirmed bets

USA v Cook Islands -11.5 (one unit @ $1.81)

• Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.

Daily tips for October 30

Note: Bets are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).


Racing for October 30

Today’s highlights

Bendigo R8 Listed $240,000 Jayco Bendigo Cup (2400m, handicap)

Horse racing: Bendigo (Vic), Warwick Farm (NSW), Eagle Farm (Qld), Balaklava (SA), Ascot (WA), Launceston (Tas – night). Harness racing: Bathurst (NSW), Redcliffe (Qld), Ballarat (Vic). Greyhound racing: The Meadows (Vic), Angle Park (SA), The Gardens (NSW), Geelong (Vic), Richmond (NSW), Albion Park (Qld), Cranbourne (Vic), Ballarat (Vic), Bulli (NSW), Rockhampton (Qld), Cannington (WA).

A year is a long time in racing. On this day in 2012, Puissance De Lune streeted the field to win the Bendigo Cup by eight lengths. He went on to spend much of the year as pre-post Melbourne Cup favourite only for his Spring campaign to be derailed in Saturday’s Cox Plate. I’m not expecting #7 Sertorius to win by eight lengths but he looks ideally placed to take out this afternoon’s $240,000 Jayco Bendigo Cup. He’s fourth-up here and was second to Pakal in the Cranbourne Cup (2025m) at his most recent run. However, the 6yo gelding is more suited to the staying test here. Ryan Maloney (who stays aboard for Freshwater Creek duo Jamie Edwards – pictured with Sertorius thanks to the Geelong Advertiser – and Bruce Elkington) will carry 2.5 kgs less here and gets the ideal jump from barrier 5. #9 Verdant deserves respect after his runner-up finish in the Geelong Cup while #5 Massiyn, from the Williams camp, is a curiosity and worth a saver based on his European form.

Confirmed bets

Bendigo R8 #7 Sertorius (E/W 1x2) 1st ($3.80/$1.80)

Warwick Farm R1 #1 Got The Goss (E/W 1x3) 1st ($2.10/$1.30)

Warwick Farm R6 #3 Triple Fortune (win) LOSE (2nd)
Eagle Farm R7 #4 Rock Academy (win) LOSE (3rd)
Ascot R6 #6 Dark Delight (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.40)

Leans

Bendigo R1 #10 Outlandish (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.80)

Bendigo R2 #7 Dehere Cat (E/W 1x2) LOSE (U/P)

Bendigo R8 #5 Massiyn (E/W) 2nd ($3.00)

Bendigo R9 #2 Gottino (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Warwick Farm R5 #4 Petrify (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($1.70)
Eagle Farm R3 #3 Beijing Dancer (E/W 1x2) LOSE (4th)

Eagle Farm R6 #1 The Sixties (E/W 1x2) 3rd (NTD)

Balaklava R6 #2 Free The Wind (win) LOSE (2nd)
Ascot R5 #6 Decreed (E/W) 3rd ($3.20)

Harness racing tip: Ballarat R5 #1 Shakapac (win)

Greyhound racing tip: Cannington R5 #1 Bingle Monelli (win)

NHL for October 30

Anaheim Ducks (9-3-0, 18pts) @ Philadelphia Flyers (3-7-0), 6pts), Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA, Wednesday, October 30, 10.10am

Although they’re missing key elements, the Anaheim Ducks are finding some chemistry on their longest road trip of the season. The short-handed Ducks will try for their third straight win when they visit a Philadelphia Flyers team that seems to have moved past the worst start in franchise history. Following consecutive losses to open this eight-game trip, Anaheim (9-3-0) bounced back with a 2-1 victory over Ottawa on Friday before beating Columbus 4-3 on Sunday. The wins, however, have been costly for the Ducks. They're missing Jakob Silfverberg, who is expected to be out at least a month after a slash from Ottawa’s Jared Cowen broke his hand. The forward got off to an outstanding start to his first season in Anaheim with four goals and three assists. The Ducks also have to move on without Saku Koivu after the center was knocked unconscious by the Blue Jackets’ Brandon Dubinsky. Koivu, who has two goals, has returned to Anaheim for tests. The Ducks, though, still have leading scorer Corey Perry. The right wing scored his sixth goal on Sunday.

Rookie Frederik Andersen or Jonas Hiller will get the start against a Philadelphia team looking to build on its season-best scoring effort in a 5-2 road win over the New York Islanders on Sunday. The Flyers, averaging 1.8 goals, hadn’t scored more than twice in any of their first nine games. Vincent Lecavalier provided them with a spark Saturday with his seventh career hat trick. After a franchise-worst 1-7 start, Philadelphia has a chance to win three straight as it faces the Ducks for the first time since Claude Giroux’s overtime goal gave the Flyers a 4-3 win in Anaheim on December 2, 2011. Steve Mason has been a bright spot during Philadelphia’s struggles. He stopped 26 of 28 shots versus New York, lowering his goals-against average to 2.15. Mason, however, went 0-1 with a 6.87 GAA in his last two appearances against Anaheim while with Columbus in 2011-12. The Flyers will try to avoid their third straight loss to the Ducks in Philadelphia, where the teams are meeting for the first time since October 21, 2010.

Confirmed bets

Anaheim Ducks WIN @ Philadelphia Flyers (one unit @ $1.87) WIN (3-2)

Toronto Maple Leafs WIN @ Edmonton Oilers (one unit @ $1.83) WIN (4-0)

Winnipeg Jets @ St Louis Blues WIN NT (one unit @ $1.74) WIN (2-3)

Leans

New York Rangers @ New York Islanders NO LEAN

Anaheim Ducks @ Philadelphia Flyers +5.5 $2.13 LOSE (3-2)

Dallas Stars @ Montreal Canadiens WIN $1.68 WIN (1-2)

Tampa Bay Lightning WIN $1.91 @ New Jersey Devils LOSE (1-2)

Ottawa Senators @ Chicago Blackhawks WIN $1.67 WIN TT +2.5 $1.69 WIN (5-6)

Winnipeg Jets @ St Louis Blues +5.5 $2.13 LOSE (2-3)

Toronto Maple Leafs TT 2.5 $1.69 WIN @ Edmonton Oilers +5.5 $1.87 LOSE (4-0)

Los Angeles Kings WIN $1.91 @ Phoenix Coyotes

NBA for October 30

Los Angeles Clippers @ Los Angeles Lakers, STAPLES Center, Los Angeles, CA, Wednesday, October 30, 1.40pm

The wait is over for NBA fans with the opening three games of the 2013-14 season scheduled for this morning AEDT. There’s always a temptation to unload on the first games of the season, but I again caution to play light in the first two weeks of the season until you’ve at least seen each team on three or four occasions. I have just one play for opening night as the battle for Los Angeles kicks-off firmly in favour of the Clippers. The Lakers (45-37) were the ones with championship expectations entering last season following the acquisitions of Dwight Howard and Steve Nash. Both were plagued by injuries while Kobe Bryant suffered a torn Achilles tendon prior to a first-round sweep at the hands of San Antonio, and Howard bolted for Houston after his contract expired. The Lakers officially ruled out Bryant out for the season opener, meaning points are going to be a premium here for the former kings of the STAPLES Center and their scrap-heap of free agent signings.

The Clippers fired Vinny Del Negro and dealt a future first-round pick to Boston to acquire Doc Rivers' services. Since arriving, Rivers (pictured) has put a priority on building a championship mentality, seen in his move to have the Lakers' banners and retired jerseys covered inside STAPLES Center for Clippers home games. The Clippers quickly re-signed point guard Chris Paul, who signed a five-year, USD $107 million extension in the off-season. Paul should be happy with more weapons at his disposal, particularly with a deeper group of reserves. The Clippers added a bevy of 3-point options in J.J. Redick, Jared Dudley and Byron Mullens, and the signing of Darren Collison should also help Paul find more time to catch a breather. It's conceivable that the Lakers will only score in the 70s or low 80s while the Clippers allowed 94.6PPG last season and that figure will almost certainly fall under Rivers’ tenure. The Clippers are 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings and although the ‘over’ is 9-0 in the past nine match-ups, the ‘under’ looks safe here.

Confirmed bets

LA Clippers @ LA Lakers -198.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (103-116)

Leans

Orlando Magic @ Indiana Pacers -11.5 $1.91 LOSE -188.5 $1.91 WIN (87-97)

Chicago Bulls +4.5 $1.91 LOSE @ Miami Heat -187.5 LOSE (95-107)

LA Clippers -9 $1.91 @ LA Lakers LOSE (103-116)

Football (Capital One Cup) for October 30

Fourth round: Burnley v West Ham United, Turf Moor, Burnley, UK, Wednesday, October 30, 6.45am

The Clarets of Burnley are flying. They’re leading the Championship table and are coming off a 2-0 win over third-placed Queens Park Rangers last weekend. Manager Sean Dyche described the win as the best he’s seen in his year in charge of the Clarets. Scott Arfield, who missed their win over QPR, and Dean Marney, substituted late on, are rated 50-50 for the Clarets as they prepare to host Premier League opposition in the fourth round of the League Cup. Burnley have won their last four League Cup home matches against Premier League opposition – beating Fulham, Arsenal and Tottenham at Turf Moor in 2008-09, and Bolton in 2010-11. They’re also unbeaten on home soil this season (W7, D2), and average exactly two goals a game from their 16 matches this season. The Championship pacesetters have kept nine clean sheets in all competitions. Four of leading scorer (pictured) Danny Ings’ 13 goals this season have come in the League Cup.

In contrast, West Ham manager Sam Allardyce bemoaned his goal-shy side’s wastefulness after a 0-0 draw at Swansea, which means they’ve managed just eight Premier League goals in nine matches this season. Ricardo Vaz Te dislocated his shoulder against Swansea, meaning Carlton Cole could make his first start since rejoining West Ham. Matt Taylor, George McCartney and Leo Chambers are also in contention. The Hammers have not kept a clean sheet on their League Cup travels in 13 games, and have lost three of their last four away matches in the competition although they’ve been relatively free-scoring in the League Cup with five goals in two games. Burnley have never beaten West Ham in a cup competition (P5, L5), however they have only lost four of their 37 league meetings on home soil with the Hammers (W23, D10, L4). Their only previous League Cup meeting came in a two-legged second-round clash in 1980, which West Ham won 6-0 on aggregate.

Confirmed bets

Burnley DNB v West Ham United (two units @ $1.72) LOSE (0-2)

Leicester City v Fulham BTS (two units @ $1.63) WIN (4-3)
Manchester Utd v Norwich City +2.5 (one unit @ $1.60) WIN (4-0)

Leans

Arsenal v Chelsea WIN $2.30 WIN (0-2)

Birmingham City WIN $3.55 v Stoke City LOSE (4-4, 2-3 pens)

Burnley v West Ham United (correct score 1-1) $8.00 LOSE (0-2)

Leicester City WIN $2.25 v Fulham WIN (4-3)

Manchester Utd 2+ $1.98 v Norwich City WIN (4-0)

Rugby League (World Cup) for October 30

Group C: Tonga v Scotland, Derwent Park, Workington, UK, Wednesday, October 30, 7am

The Cumbrian town of Workington (population 24,000) is preparing to host one of the biggest events in its history when the 2013 Rugby League World Cup rolls into town. Workington’s proximity to the border will ensure a full house for the Group C clash for Scotland’s clash against the might of Tonga. Tonga thrashed Scotland 49-0 at the 2008 World Cup and they look even stronger this time around with 17 NRL players in their ranks. They thumped Samoa 36-4 in April and are the favourites to win Group C and take the one and only quarter-final spot on offer. Outside the ‘big three’ of Australia, New Zealand and England, the Tongans have arguably the most talented team at this World Cup. They have genuine grunt up front with skipper Brent Kite, barnstorming Eels veteran Fuifui Moimoi, Cowboys cannonball Jason Taumalolo, Penrith's Sika Manu and St Helens forward Willie Manu. Then there’s the raw power of outside backs Jorge Taufua, Konrad Hurrell and premiership-winning Rooster Daniel Tupou, plus the guile of Warriors young gun Glen Fisiiahi at full-back.

Scotland, meanwhile, are the group’s underdogs, considering the quality of Tonga and the form of fellow Group C side Italy. The Scots have 10 Super League players in their squad and four NRL players – Peter Wallace, Luke Douglas, Kane Linnett and Matt Russell – but struggled in their warm-up match against Papua New Guinea last week on the way to a 38-20 defeat. But while they can’t match Tonga’s power they do have stronger playmakers. Panthers-bound ex-Brisbane Bronco Peter Wallace (pictured) is a seasoned campaigner and has played four State of Origin games. Alongside him is the current Super League League ‘Man of Steel’ Danny Brough, who was controversially left out of England’s World Cup squad after leading Huddersfield to the top of the Super League ladder. They appear to have a clear advantage over likely Tongan halves pairing Samisoni Langi and Daniel Foster, and if they can control the game and create chances for their outside men the Tongans could be surprised. Indeed, the line on offer favours the Scots, and with plenty of support from the crowd, we’ll go that way.

Confirmed bet

Tonga v Scotland +19.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (24-26)

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