Daily tips for September 2

AFL Finals (week 1) betting preview

The lines have been released for the opening week of the 2013 AFL finals, with most of the conversation surrounding two topics – the decision to hold the Geelong v Fremantle Second Qualifying Final at Simonds Stadium, and Hawthorn’s nervous wait on the Match Review Panel report on the rough conduct charge (now confirmed) against Lance Franklin (pictured). It looks as if the books have already factored Franklin’s one-week suspension into the price, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the public money flow towards Sydney should the spearhead be sidelined. I’ll be on the Hawks, but there’s a better price to come.

 

The Cats smashed Freo by 41 points at Simonds Stadium back in round 14 but that was one of the Dockers’ worst performances of the year and was also played in atrocious conditions. Freo have shown a far more attacking focus over the final six weeks of the season while retaining their defensive bent. Throw in Ross Lyon’s meticulous management of his on-field resources, and I have Fremantle (at the line) as the best of the week at this stage. The line movement is likely to be minimal but there'll be significant public money in favour of the Cats due to the perception of their home ground advantage.

The elimination finals are both tricky affairs. Going back as far as 2008, at least one KO final in the first week has been decided by six goals or greater. There have also been several blowouts in that period. Short of the nerves taking hold, I’m expecting a convincing win for the Tigers. With the emergence of Ty Vickery, Aaron Edwards and Ivan Maric as forward threats, it’s hard to see the Blues keeping this game closer than four goals. Likewise, Collingwood’s form has been superior to that of the Power and, expecting the line to blowout, I’d advise betting the Pies now if you’re leaning that way. Watch for full previews of all games later in the week.

First Qualifying Final: Hawthorn (19-3) v Sydney (15-1-6), MCG, Friday, September 6, 7.30pm AEST

Line (open): Hawthorn -12.5->11.5. Game total: 180.5.

Second Qualifying Final: Geelong v Fremantle, Simonds Stadium, Saturday, September 7, 2.20pm AEST

Line (open): Geelong -20.5. Game total: 168.5.

Second Elimination Final: Collingwood v Port Adelaide, MCG, Saturday, September 7, 7.45pm

Line (open): Collingwood -24.5. Game total: 188.5.

First Elimination Final: Richmond v Carlton, MCG, Sunday September 8, 3.20pm

Line (open): Richmond -12.5->13.5. Game total: 180.5.

Racing for September 2

Horse racing: Wodonga (Vic), Wagga (NSW). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Globe Derby (SA), Maryborough (Vic), Pinjarra (WA). Greyhound racing: Albion Park (Qld), Launceston (Tas), Nowra (NSW), Wentworth Park (NSW), Angle Park (SA), Geelong (Vic), Ballarat (Vic), Shepparton (Vic), Bathurst (NSW), Northam (WA).

Racing Victoria has requested a report from the fiasco at Mildura yesterday (Sunday), which saw a race run over the wrong distance. The Racing Network is reporting that RV CEO Bernard Saundry described as “unsatisfactory” the situation that saw the Roadside Services & Solutions Rating 58 race run over 1100 metres instead of the programmed 1000 metres. Saundry said he’d called for an investigation to see “why and how it happened”. RV steward Peter Ryan, who chaired the Mildura meeting, said it was not until after correct weight had been given that it was established that the race was run over 1100 metres. Ryan said an inquiry has been opened and adjourned into how the race was started from the wrong distance. “It’s just disappointing that neither myself or some of the staff didn’t pick it up. That’s where we are at, there’s no point trying to dodge it,” Ryan said.

Tips for today

Wodonga R2 #5 La Roserale (win) LOSE (U/P)

Wodonga R3 #7 Malinga (win) 1st ($1.60)

Wodonga R4 #1 Chosen Son (win) 1st ($1.90)

Wagga R3 #1 De Belin (win) LOSE (U/P)

Wagga R6 #2 Get's Better (E/W 1x2) 1st ($4.50/$1.80)

Wagga R8 #1 Lycra Lass (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

NCAAF (week 1) for September 1-2

Colorado Buffaloes @ Colorado State Rams, Sports Authority Field, Denver, CO, Monday, September 2, 8am

It feels like it has been more than eight months, but the wait is almost over Ram fans. Sunday is the beginning of Jim McElwain’s second year leading Colorado State, and he looks to start it off right with a win over in-state rival Colorado. It is the 85th instalment of the Rocky Mountain Showdown in which Colorado leads. Colorado State has a chance to narrow the margin against a Colorado team that experienced quite the tumultuous off-season. Former coach Jon Embree was fired after a dismal 1-11 season, athletic director Mike Bohn was fired for his shortcomings in fundraising, QB Jordan Webb was arrested, and several players transferred away from the program. Mike MacIntyre was brought in to bring the football team back to prominence, and a win over the Rams would be a good start.

Colorado’s offensive line is perhaps the weakest unit on the team. But for Colorado to win this game, they need to provide protection for Connor Wood. The Buffs have a proven running back in Christian Powell, but if the line cannot provide Wood enough time to get throws off and threaten the CSU defence vertically, the Rams will key on the running game and shut it down. Wood will have a lot of help from a pretty talented receiving corps lead by Paul Richardson. Nelson Spruce and Tyler McCulloch performed well against the Rams last year, combining for 118 yards and two TDs. Unlike Colorado, the Rams do not have a deep threat like Richardson. With several receivers returning from last year, and the infusion of some talented new freshmen, the Rams hope to fill that gap to assist QB Garrett Grayson.

Suggested bet: Game total +48.5 (two units @ $1.91) WIN, Colorado State -3 (one unit @ $1.95) LOSE (41-27)

Other tips

Ohio @ Louisville -20.5 WIN (7-49)

MLB for September 1-2

New York Mets (62-72, 34-34 away) @ Washington nationals (68-67, 39-31 home), Nationals Park, Washington DC, Monday, September 2, 10.10am

The Nationals have had the Mets’ number throughout the Davey Johnson era but the Mets are out to exact some revenge with their first three-game sweep of the Washington Nationals since 2009. Johnson, whose first managerial job came with the Mets and was highlighted by winning the 1986 World Series, has watched the Nationals fall 7 1/2 games behind Cincinnati for the second NL wild-card spot after consecutive losses to New York, including an 11-3 defeat Saturday. The Mets (62-72) will try to further damage the Nationals’ slim playoff chances behind Jonathon Niese (6-6, 3.69 ERA), who has had their number of late. Since allowing six runs in 4 1/3 innings the first time he faced Washington, he is 3-0 with a 1.07 ERA against the Nationals. After a rough start to the year, Niese is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA in four starts since returning from a partially torn left rotator cuff on August 11.

While Niese tries to shoulder some of the load the final month with Mets ace Matt Harvey out for the season, Ross Ohlendorf (3-0, 2.49) is simply trying to prove he belongs in Washington’s rotation. Ohlendorf (3-0, 2.49) has a 2.82 ERA in four starts this season, with his best one coming against the Mets on July 26. He limited them to one run in seven innings with a season-high eight strikeouts but left without a decision as Washington got a 2-1 walk-off victory. Johnson will surely keep an eye on his right-hander after Ohlendorf hit a wall in his two starts back from shoulder inflammation. The Mets have scored 25 runs over a three-game winning streak after totaling 13 while losing six of seven. New York's line-up suffered a big loss on Saturday, however, as first baseman Ike Davis is likely headed to the disabled list with a strained muscle on his right side.

Suggested bet: Game total +7.5 (2.5 units @ $1.77) WIN, Mets WIN (1.5 units @ $2.23) LOSE (5-6)

Other tips

IL: Angels WIN $2.02 @ Brewers WIN (5-3)
AL: Orioles WIN $2.09 @ Yankees WIN (7-3)

AL: Royals WIN $1.67 WIN @ Blue Jays -8.5 $1.88 WIN (5-0)
AL: Indians WIN $2.45 WIN @ Tigers -8.5 $1.95 WIN (4-0)
AL: White Sox @ Red Sox -1.5 $1.91 LOSE (6-7)
AL: Mariners @ Astros -8 $1.99 WIN (0-2)
AL: Twins @ Rangers -1.5 $2.00 LOSE (4-2)
AL: Rays @ Athletics WIN $1.82 WIN -8 $1.97 WIN (1-5)
NL: Cardinals WIN $1.95 @ Pirates WIN (7-2)
NL: Phillies @ Cubs WIN $1.85 WIN (1-7)
NL: Padres @ Dodgers -1.5 $2.05 LOSE (1-2)
NL: Reds @ Rockies +10 $2.00 WIN (4-7)
NL: Giants @ Diamondbacks WIN $1.61 LOSE (8-2)
NL: Marlins @ Braves -7.5 $1.83 WIN (7-0)

EPL for September 1-2

Arsenal (1-0-1) v Tottenham Hotspur (2-0-0), Emirates Stadium, London, UK, Tuesday, September 2, 1am

Arsenal's recovery from their opening-day defeat by Aston Villa will only be rubber-stamped by a 12th home league win in 15 meetings with their north London foes. Victory followed by a couple of major signings will bode well for the future. Defeat and the Gunners will be another lurch away from crisis. Arsenal has thumped in five goals in each of the last two home north London derbies. But the search goes on for a star striker, in Olivier Giroud, Theo Walcott and the injured Lukas Podolski they have three players capable of 20 goals a season. All 13 of Olivier Giroud’s Premier League goals have been scored in London, with 11 netted at the Emirates. The Gunners have not lost their opening two home league games since 1949-50, when they were defeated by Burnley and Chelsea at Highbury.

Tottenham’s bold start to the campaign would be seriously undermined by a third defeat in a row at the Emirates. But a second away league triumph at Arsenal since 1993 should see Spurs regarded as genuine early season title challengers. Although Tottenham are looking for a fourth successive league clean sheet for the first time since 2010, Arsenal have the pace and power to net against them. But at the other end a lad raised on derby matches between Corinthians, Sao Paulo and Palmeiras could have a major say. Paulinho has made a terrific start in Spurs’ new team of giants while Roberto Soldado has scored 12 goals in his last 10 league appearances. If the Spaniard scores here he will become only the second player to score in their first three EPL appearances for Spurs.

Suggested bet: Both Teams Score (1.5 units @ $1.58) LOSE, Correct Score 2-2 (0.5 units @ $10.00) LOSE (1-0)

Other tips

Liverpool v Manchester United +0.5 ($1.55) LOSE (1-0)

West Bromwich Albion v Swansea City -2.5 ($2.00) WIN (0-2)

• Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.