Daily tips for September 3

Racing for September 3

Horse racing: Stawell (Vic), Mackay (Qld), Goulburn (NSW), Tamworth (NSW). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Gloucester Park (WA), Kilmore (Vic), Menangle (NSW). Greyhound racing: Angle Park (SA), Devonport (Tas), Gosford (NSW), Goulburn (NSW), Horsham (Vic), Ipswich (Qld), Lismore (NSW), Mandurah (WA), Townsville (Qld), Warragul (Vic).

Perfect conditions and a good (3) await runners in today’s seven-race program at Goulburn where trainer Guy Walter will have an extremely strong hand. My best of the day is the Walter runner #1 Dream Folk jumping from barrier 9 in the last of the day, the Homelee Hollow Agistment BM55 Handicap over 1400m. The 4yo has finished in the money both runs this campaign and drops back in grade after a last start third at Kembla Grange, running on well from back in the field. Blake Shinn, who has an impressive strike rate of 23 per cent winners for Walter, returns from suspension and goes back on board having had just the one start on the gelding for a win at this track/distance. He’s likely to settle in the second half of the field but will be getting to the line strongly and is the top elect against these back in grade.

Suggested bet: Goulburn R7 #1 Dream Folk WIN (three units) 1st ($2.10)

Other tips

Stawell R1 #8 Fast Entry (win) LOSE (3rd)

Stawell R5 #7 Dats A Lass (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Stawell R7 #6 Herbie (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Mackay R2 #6 Rofranoz (E/W 1x4) 1st ($3.10/$1.40)

Goulburn R2 #3 Salote (win) 1st ($2.40)

Goulburn R3 #1 Star Wars (win) 1st ($1.90)

Tamworth R3 #5 Floral Gold (E/W 1x3) 1st ($4.60/$1.50)

Tamworth R6 #3 Hot Hit (win) 1st ($1.40)

Harness racing tip: Kilmore R6 #3 Colby Reilly (win) LOSE (2nd)
Greyhound racing tip: Gosford R7 #4 Premier Mozz (win) LOSE (3rd)

Special report: 2013 Federal Election (Pt 5)

I will preview each of the States ahead of the 2013 Federal Election and the seats that will be worth watching in terms of betting ahead of the September 7 poll. The fifth State for preview is New South Wales.

No. of House of Representatives seats: 48 (ALP holds 25 seats, Coalition holds 20 seats, Independents hold 3 seats)

Having already endured a wipeout in the last NSW State Election, the ALP faces another disastrous result in the Federal Election. Home to 48 of the 150 Lower House seats in the Federal Parliament, New South Wales is traditionally ALP state but shapes as the Rudd Government’s undoing. With key seats on the Central Coast and Western Sydney now forecast to fall – and other regional seats in play for the Coalition – a swing against Labor shapes as the death knell to the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd Government.

Sydney

North Shore/Northern Beaches: The Sydney Coalition heartland, the North Shore and Northern Beaches hold five very safe Coalition seats along with one typically safe Coalition seat. Warringah, Bradfield, MacKellar, Berowra and North Sydney are all held on margins more than 13 per cent. Bennelong isn’t likely to revert to Labor, after Maxine McKew ousted sitting Prime Minister John Howard in 2007. She lost the seat in 2010 to John Alexander and despite Labor targeting the seat (held on a 3.1 per cent margin), it’s not changing hands.

Eastern Suburbs/Inner West: Inner-city Sydney is very much the domain of the ALP with the exception of affluent Eastern Suburbs seat Wentworth, which Malcolm Turnbull holds on a margin of 14.9 per cent. Sydney and Grayndler are both very safe Labor seats that will only ever be lost to the Greens – and not at this election – while Kingsford Smith, centred on Randwick, has never gone to the Coalition and, despite a 5.2 per cent margin and a retiring MP, should be retained by Labor. Analysing the outer ring further west, Labor is considered in real trouble in seats once considered untouchable. While Watson is not expected to be in any trouble for Labor, Barton and Banks in the Kogarah/Bankstown areas and Reid, centred on Concord, are all considered under threat. The Coalition are now strong favourites in Banks and Reid, both of which have margins of less than 3 per cent, while the retirement of Robert McClelland has opened up Barton for the Coalition.

The Shire/Wollongong/Southern Highlands: The Shire is a conservative bastion with Cook held by 12.7 per cent and Hughes by 5.2 per cent. Neither is under threat at this election. Wollongong is much the same for the ALP with Cunningham and Throsby both held by margins of greater than 13 per cent. The interesting seat here is Macarthur but with a 3 per cent margin to the Coalition, this seat should be safe for the Libs.

West/Blue Mountains: Ten seats make up Western Sydney and the Blue Mountains. Mitchell is considered a safe Liberal seat with a margin of 17.2 per cent while Labor hold Fowler, Blaxland and Chifley by more than 8 per cent. The other six seats – Lindsay, Macquarie, Greenway, McMahon, Werriwa and Parramatta (five of which are held by Labor) – are all very much in play at this election to varying degrees. Kevin Rudd started his 2013 campaign in Macquarie, the Blue Mountains seat held by Liberal Louise Markus, believing the ALP could pick this seat up. Polling and the weight of money suggest this is now highly unlikely though. Labor is highly concerned about the other five western Sydney seats held on margins under 8 per cent. They should hold McMahon and Werriwa and remain favoured to hold Parramatta (4.4 per cent). Lindsay and Greenway both seem certain to switch though.

Rural

Central Coast/Hunter: The good news for the ALP is that their Hunter heartland should remain safe. Despite big swings against Labor at the NSW election in the Hunter, the seats of Shortland, Newcastle, Charlton and Hunter – all with margins of more than 12 per cent – remain safe. The bad news is that Paterson, that covers areas like Forster north of Newcastle, is well and truly off the table. It is shaping as a disaster on the Central Coast for Labor though with Robertson and Dobell (remember Craig Thomson, pictured?) both set to return to the Coalition.

North Coast: Despite possessing just five seats, the North Coast of NSW has always been a key area with five very interesting seats that have a history of swinging. New England and Lyne are traditionally very conservative seats but have been held by rural independents Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott in recent years. Both have retired rather than face any backlash from their electorates with both seats expected to return to Coalition hands. Cowper, centred on Coffs Harbour, will remain with the Coalition. It has been lost to the conservative party just once (1961-63) and is on a margin of 9.3 per cent. Labor hold Richmond and Page by solid margins and should retain both, though Page is considered somewhat vulnerable. If Richmond and Page do look like going, Labor is staring down the barrel of an electoral wipeout.

West/South: The vast West and South of New South Wales contains seven electorates that touch the Queensland, South Australian and Victoria elections. As would be expected, the majority of these are very conservative seats with the Coalition holding Parkes, Farrer, Riverina, Hume and Calare by margins all greater than 8.7 per cent. The Coalition should also hold Gilmore, which covers off the area south of Wollongong by a margin of 5.3 per cent. The one seat that is particularly interesting – and always is – is bellwether seat Eden-Monaro. The diverse electorate that covers conservative areas down the south coast along with Labor voting areas such as Queanbeyan has gone with the government since 1972. Labor’s Mike Kelly – who won the seat in 2007 – remains favourite with a margin of 4.2 per cent but it would not surprise if this seat goes.

Seats to watch

Kingsford Smith – Liberals/ Michael Feneley (WIN) $1.75

Page – Nationals/Kevin Hogan (WIN) $2.10

Parramatta – ALP/Julie Owens (WIN) $3.15

Werriwa – Liberals/Kent Johns (WIN) $2.30

Coalition Gains (11+) $4.00

MLB for September 2-3

AL: Seattle Mariners (62-74, 31-36 away) @ Kansas City Royals (70-66, 35-33 home), Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO, Tuesday, September 3, 4.10am

The Kansas City Royals have managed to stay in the wild-card conversation thanks in part to Danny Duffy (pictured), who has come up big since debuting last month. The same can’t be said for Seattle Mariners ace Felix Hernandez, who has struggled to find his form of late – and he won’t have the advantage of playing under lights on his home field here. After undergoing Tommy John surgery last year, Duffy (2-0, 1.10 ERA) has impressed since being called up for the first time Aug. 7. The 24-year-old left-hander has struck out 17 in 16 1/3 innings and limited opponents to a .203 average. Duffy carries a 12 2/3 scoreless innings streak into the opener of this four-game set after scattering five hits in 6 2/3 innings in Thursday’s 8-1 victory at Minnesota.

Duffy will look to deliver another strong showing for the Royals (70-66), who are 5 1/2 games out of the second wild-card spot. Kansas City has won six of eight after concluding a 4-2 road trip with Monday’s 5-0 victory over Toronto. The Royals now try to keep things going against Hernandez (12-8, 2.97), who is hoping to avoid losing a career-worst tying fourth consecutive start. The former Cy Young Award winner’s only such stretch came April 27-May 13, 2008. Hernandez has posted a 9.64 ERA during his skid, giving up nine runs (a career-worst eight earned) in three-plus innings on Thursday in a 12-4 loss to Texas. Hernandez has gone 4-3 with a 2.67 ERA in 10 starts in the series, allowing three earned runs or fewer in each of those outings.

Suggested bet: Game total -7.5 (3.5 units @ $1.87) WIN, Kansas City WIN (1.5 units @ $2.04) WIN (1-3)

Other tips

IL: Blue Jays @ D'backs +9 $1.89 LOSE (4-1)

AL: White Sox WIN $2.33 @ Yankees LOSE (1-9)

AL: Tigers WIN $2.11 @ Red Sox WIN (3-0)

AL: Twins WIN $1.87 WIN @ Astros -8.5 $1.95 LOSE (10-6)

AL: Orioles @ Indians WIN $1.74 LOSE +8 $1.85 WIN (7-2)

AL: Rangers WIN $1.96 @ Athletics LOSE (2-4)

AL: Rays WIN $1.81 @ Angels -7.5 $1.93

NL: Mets @ Braves +8 $1.89 WIN (5-13)

NL: Cardinals @ Reds WIN $1.74 WIN (2-7)

NL: Pirates WIN $1.80 WIN @ Brewers -8.5 $2.00 WIN (5-2)

NL: Marlins @ Cubs WIN $1.76 LOSE (4-3)

NL: Giants @ Padres WIN $1.65 WIN +8 $1.91 LOSE (1-4)

NL: Dodgers WIN $1.49 @ Rockies WIN (10-8)

NL: Nationals WIN $1.86 @ Phillies LOSE (2-3)

CFL (week 10) for September 2-3

Edmonton Eskimos (1-7) @ Calgary Stampeders (6-2), McMahon Stadium, Calgary, AB, Tuesday, September 3, 7.10am

Frustration is starting to set in for the Edmonton Eskimos, who sit at the bottom of the West Division after dropping their last four games by a combined 12 points during a six-game losing streak. Edmonton will try to snap out of its funk when it visits the rival Calgary Stampeders for the Labour Day Classic and Battle of Alberta. Eskimos QB Mike Reilly has thrown for 814 yards and six touchdowns over the last two games and will need to continue connecting with his receivers if Edmonton hopes to overcome the struggles of its injury-plagued defense, which has surrendered a division-worst 235 points. Injured linebacker JC Sherritt could return if he has the pin removed from his broken thumb. Sherritt set a CFL record last season with 130 tackles, but has missed the past two games.

Injuries have not slowed the Stampeders, who defeated the Toronto Argonauts last week without team rushing leader Jon Cornish or slotback Nik Lewis – the receiving yards leader. Jonathan Williams replaced Cornish and ran for 82 yards on 18 carries in his CFL debut, while Marquay McDaniel did his best impersonation of Lewis, catching seven passes for 106 yards and one touchdown. Veteran QB Kevin Glenn, who has played most of the season in place of injured starter Drew Tate, passed concussion tests after leaving the game late against Toronto for precautionary reasons, further showcasing Calgary’s resilience. Cornish was on pace for a career-high in rushing yards before his injury and could return to the line-up to continue that pursuit, while Lewis will be sidelined for the rest of the season.

Suggested bet: Calgary -7.5 (1.5 units @ $1.91) LOSE, game total +56.5 (3.5 units @ $1.91) WIN (34-37)

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