Daily tips for September 29

Racing for September 29

Today’s highlights

Caulfield R7 G3 $175,000 BECK Caulfield Guineas Prelude (1400m)

Caulfield R8 G1 $400,000 Clamms Seafood Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m)

Horse racing: Caulfield (Vic), Warwick Farm (NSW), Sunshine Coast (Qld), Gawler (SA), Coleraine (Vic), Port Macquarie (NSW), Devonport (Tas), Toodyay (WA). Harness racing: Eugowra (NSW), Hobart (Tas), Melton (Vic). Greyhound racing: Albion Park (Qld), Canberra (ACT), Gawler (SA), Healesville (Vic), Sale (Vic), Sandown Park (Vic), Wagga (NSW).

A huge weekend of racing continues with Caulfield taking centre stage for the running of the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes on a dead (4). Entry is free for 2013 AFL Grand Final ticket-holders along with members of both the Hawthorn and Fremantle football clubs on presentation of tickets/membership cards. The feature looks too tough with several realistic chances so I’m heading to race 4, the TMB Printing Handicap over 1700m, for my best of the day. #5 Bass Strait impressed when fifth behind Fiorente in the Group 2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes (1600m) at Moonee Valley and should be close to peak fitness following two runs back from a spell and drops in class and weight, which looks ideal against this opposition. The David Hayes stable is in good form as is young stable jockey Chad Schofield. I’ll also be having a small saver on #6 Ranked, another imported stayer out of the Lloyd Williams camp.

Suggested bet: Caulfield R4 #5 Bass Strait WIN (two units) 1st ($3.20), #6 Ranked PLACE (one unit) LOSE (U/P)

Other tips

Caulfield R1 #3 May's Dream (win) 1st ($2.30)
Caulfield R3 #1 Verdant (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Caulfield R6 #6 Chiaramonte (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($1.70)

Caulfield R7 #6 Éclair Big Bang (E/W) 1st ($12.40/$3.30)

Caulfield R8 #18 Strawberry Boy (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Warwick Farm R1 #1 Lucky Lago (win) 1st ($2.00)

Warwick Farm R3 #1 Gamblestown (E/W) LOSE (NTD)

Warwick Farm R5 #3 Projectile (win) LOSE (U/P)

Warwick Farm R6 #6 Mr Edison (place) 3rd ($3.50)
Warwick Farm R7 #11 Federica (E/W) 1st ($17.80/$4.80)

Port Macquarie R4 #4 Slick Cookie (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Port Macquarie R6 #10 Get On The Grange (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($1.70)

Sunshine Coast R3 #2 Revitalise (win) LOSE (U/P)

Sunshine Coast R5 #1 Altai Warrior (win) 1st ($3.40)

Gawler R3 #1 Ziggler (win) LOSE (2nd)

Coleraine R7 #4 Orientaped (win) 1st ($3.40)

CFL (week 14) for September 29

Toronto Argonauts (8-4) @ Edmonton Eskimos (3-9), Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton, AB, Sunday, September 29, 11.05am

If results are any indication, the Toronto Argonauts might like to stay on the road forever. The Argonauts will try to win their sixth-straight away game when they finish their trip through western Canada with a visit to the Edmonton Eskimos. Quarterback Zach Collaros (pictured) is leading the East Division’s best offence while Ricky Ray recovers from injury, throwing for more than 1800 yards and 12 touchdowns while rushing for four more. Collaros and slotback Andre Durie both earned player of the week honours after last week’s 33-27 victory over the Calgary Stampeders. Collaros was 25-for-36 passing for 330 yards and four touchdowns to earn offensive player of the week, while Durie was named top Canadian after catching nine passes for 64 yards and one touchdown.

The Eskimos are hoping home-and-home victories over the lowly Winnipeg Blue Bombers will help turn their season around. Quarterback Mike Reilly reached 3000 passing yards after throwing for 418 in last week’s come-from-behind road victory and should enjoy a strong outing against a Toronto secondary that allows a league-high 297.7 passing yards per game. However, Edmonton is 1-5 at Commonwealth Stadium – something that will have to improve if the Eskimos hope to catch the Montreal Alouettes for a crossover playoff berth. Edmonton was finally on the right end of a close game after rallying from a 20-point deficit to defeat Winnipeg 35-27 in overtime, and coach Kavis Reed praised the team’s resiliency. Reilly is finding targets without slotback Cary Koch, who is on the nine-game injured list.

Suggested bets: Toronto WIN (1.5 units @ $1.90) WIN, game total +53 (2.5 units @ $1.91) WIN (34-22)

Other tips

Calgary Stampeders WIN ($1.93) WIN @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats +52 ($1.91) LOSE (35-11)

MLB for September 29

NL: Colorado Rockies (72-88, 27-52) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (92-68, 47-32 home), Dodgers Stadium, Los Angeles, CA, Sunday, September 29, 11.10am

After struggling to score runs, the Los Angeles Dodgers produced their best offensive showing in more than seven weeks in their series opener with the Colorado Rockies. Unfortunately for the Rockies, they’ll have to deal with another one of the NL’s best pitchers in addition to Los Angeles’ revitalised line-up here. Los Angeles (92-68) had tallied 13 runs while splitting its previous six games before an 11-0 win yesterday. It was the club’s third-highest total of the year and its most since a 13-4 win at St Louis on August 7. The Dodgers were 5 for 15 with runners in scoring position, nearly matching their total from the last six games when they went 6 for 44 (.136). Since July 30, Clayton Kershaw’s 1.55 ERA is baseball’s best, closely followed by scheduled starter Zack Greinke’s 1.59 mark. Greinke (15-3, 2.67 ERA, pictured) is 7-0 in that span, allowing two runs or fewer in each outing. He matched a season-low with 72 pitches while throwing five innings of two-hit ball in a 1-0 victory at San Diego on Sunday.

Greinke is 2-0 in three starts versus Colorado this year, though he gave up nine runs over 10 1/3 innings in the first two meetings. He threw a two-hitter with nine strikeouts in a 1-0 final on July 13 at Chavez Ravine. Scheduled Colorado starter Juan Nicasio (8-9, 5.32) might need some help from Helton and the rest of the order as he owns an 0-3 record and 10.18 ERA over his last five starts. He’s surrendered 15 runs in his last two starts, while throwing only five innings. Nicasio had mixed results in two outings against the Dodgers this year, both in Los Angeles. He surrendered three runs over four innings of a 7-3 victory on May 1, then limited them to three hits in seven innings during a 3-0 win on July 12. Hanley Ramirez is 5 for 8 off Nicasio with two doubles. Yasiel Puig may miss Saturday's game after fouling a ball off his leg in the fifth inning Friday and exiting, though X-rays were negative. He's 7 for 40 (.175) over his last 12 games, though three of those hits were home runs.

Suggested bet: Dodgers WIN (three units @ $1.44) LOSE, game total -7 (two units @ $1.88) WIN (1-0)

Other tips

IL: Tigers* WIN $1.50 LOSE @ Marlins -6.5 $2.00 WIN (1-2)

AL: Angels @ Rangers** WIN $1.60 WIN +8.5 $1.86 WIN (4-7)

AL: Indians** WIN $1.48 @ Twins WIN (5-1)

AL: Rays** @ Blue Jays WIN $2.50 WIN (2-7)

AL: Athletics* WIN $1.74 @ Mariners LOSE (5-7)

AL: Royals @ White Sox -7.5 $1.91 LOSE (5-6)

AL: Yankees WIN $1.60 @ Astros WIN (2-1)

NL: Pirates* @ Reds* +7.5 $1.88 WIN (8-3)

NL: Padres @ Giants WIN $1.67 LOSE (9-3)

NL: Brewers WIN $1.87 @ Mets WIN (4-2)

NL: Cubs @ Cardinals* WIN $1.50 WIN (2-6)

NL: Phillies @ Braves* WIN $1.40 LOSE (5-4)

NL: Nationals @ D'backs +9 $1.95 LOSE (2-0)

* = playoff spot, ** = wild card contender

NCAAF (week 5) for September 29

California Golden Bears (1-2, 0-0 away) @ (2) Oregon Ducks (3-0, 2-0 home), Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR, Sunday, September 29, 12.30pm

OK, this might not be the best bet of the day but from a handicapping perspective, it’s one of the most intriguing games of week 5. According to the books, the Cal Golden Bears and Oregon Ducks will score 1.4 points per minute when these Pac-12 rivals collide in Eugene, Oregon. If you’re slow on the maths, the total for this game is at 84 points, which makes it the second-highest over/under line in college football since 1985. The highest ever game total line was posted last year in the week 14 Big 12 battle between the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Baylor Bears, which closed at 88 points and was high as 88.5 during that week. Baylor edged OSU 41-34, playing under that massive number. In fact, of the 11 games to boast a total of 80 points or more in the past 28 seasons, five have played over the number and six have stayed under.

The ‘over’ has hit just twice in the 82-point-plus range (of which there were five games). College football bettors have already tangled with an 80-point number this season. Books posted a total of 80 points for last week’s Lone Star State shootout between the SMU Mustangs and Texas A&M Aggies. The Aggies beat the Mustangs 42-13, playing well under the total. The Ducks are averaging 61.3 points per game – second most in the land – while the Golden Bears have posted an average of 33.7 points on opponents and rank second in the FBS with 437 passing yards per outing. Cal’s defense is among the worst in the country, being gashed for 42 points on 559.7 yards per game, but has played a tough opening stretch of schedule featuring Northwestern, Ohio State and FCS offensive power Portland State. Both Cal and Oregon bring a 3-0 O/U record into this contest.

Here’s a look at the 11 games with 80-plus totals since 1985:

80 – SMU 13, Texas A&M 42 (September 20, 2013)

82 – UCLA 26, Baylor 49 (December 27, 2012)

88 – Oklahoma State 34, Baylor 41 (December 1, 2012)

80 – Baylor 52, Texas Tech 45 (November 14, 2012)

82.5 – Baylor 63, West Virginia 70 (September 29, 2012)

80 – Washington 56, Baylor 67 (December 29, 2011)

82 – Texas Tech 42, Baylor 66 (November 26, 2011)

83 – Baylor 59, Oklahoma State 24 (October 29, 2011) 

80.5 – Tulsa 30, Houston 70 (November 15, 2008)

80.5 – New Mexico State 13, Hawaii 50 (October 27, 2007)

80 – Colorado 21, Texas Tech 26 (November 1, 2003)

The game has been an obsession of sharps this week. Oregon (3-0) put together a 184-27 scoring advantage while facing little adversity in FCS school Nicholls, Virginia and Tennessee. Only Baylor, which has faced even less-formidable competition than the Ducks through its first three games, has averaged more than Oregon's 61.3 points and 672.0 total yards. The Ducks trail only Navy in the FBS with 355.3 rushing yards per contest. Sophomore quarterback Marcus Mariota (pictured) has recorded 1,151 total yards while throwing seven TDs with no interceptions and rushing for four scores. He passed for a career-high 456 yards and four TDs in the 59-14 win over the Volunteers on September 14. Oregon has outscored Cal 159-48 during a four-game winning streak in the series. Winners in 22 straight home games against unranked opponents, the Ducks have taken two in a row and nine of 10 from the Golden Bears (1-2) at Autzen Stadium. FWIW, I’m leaning under.

Suggested bet: Oregon @ California -84 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (16-55)

Other tips (two units)

UAB @ Vanderbilt -19.5 WIN (24-52)

Iowa @ Minnesota -46.5 WIN (23-7) 

Oklahoma State -18.5 LOSE @ WVU +57 LOSE (21-30) 

Wisconsin @ Ohio State -6.5 WIN -54 LOSE (24-31)

Navy -3 LOSE @ Western Kentucky -58 WIN (7-19)

LSU @ Georgia +61.5 WIN (41-44)

Ole Miss @ Alabama -55.5 WIN (0-25)

Southern Miss @ Boise State +55.5 WIN (7-60)

Army -1.5 WIN @ Louisiana Tech +55.5 LOSE (35-16)

Miami Florida @ Southern Florida -48.5 LOSE (28-25)

Temple @ Idaho -57 WIN (24-26)

Florida @ Kentucky -46 WIN (24-7)

Wake Forest @ Clemson -29 WIN (7-56)

San Diego State @ New Mexico State +54 LOSE (26-16)

Other tips (one unit)

Northern Illinois -3 WIN @ Purdue +58 WIN (55-24)

Connecticut @ Buffalo -1 WIN (12-41)

Kent State @ Western Michigan -51 WIN (32-14)

UTEP +14.5 LOSE @ Colorado State +53 WIN (42-59)

Arizona @ Washington +64 LOSE (13-31)

USC @ Arizona State +50.5 WIN (41-62)

Oklahoma @ Notre Dame +49.5 WIN (35-21)

Colorado +11 @ Oregon State +60 WIN (17-44)

Fresno State @ Hawaii +18.5 WIN -58.5 LOSE (42-37)

Houston @ Texas San Antonio +2.5 LOSE +63.5 WIN (59-28)

UNLV -3 @ New Mexico +54 WIN (56-42)

Troy @ Duke +63 WIN (31-38)

Tulane +14.5 @ UL Monroe WIN (31-14)

Stanford @ Washington State +10 LOSE (55-17)

EPL for September 28-29

Southampton (2-2-1) v Crystal Palace (1-0-4), St Mary’s Stadium, Southampton, UK, Sunday, September 29, midnight

There will be no happier football manager than Ian Holloway, who will be free to prowl the technical area again after serving a two-match touchline ban for criticising referee Mark Clattenburg's handling of Crystal Palace's opening game of the season against Tottenham. Holloway was also fined £18,000 by the FA for “improper conduct and bringing the game into disrepute” but the ban hurt far more. His Palace side face a huge battle to avoid another immediate relegation from the Premier League and having Holloway bobbing in and out of the dug-out is like having a 12th man. The Eagles have lost four of their five league games so far, with their solitary victory coming against Sunderland, the only team beneath them in the table. Crystal Palace have won only one of their last 10 league visits to Southampton (W1, D3, L6) with the Saints winning the past three. Palace have also won just two of their past 15 league fixtures (Championship and Premier League).

If Palace are living up to the pundits’ pre-season pessimism, Southampton are not. Few, if any, expected Saints to be riding so high. Ending Liverpool’s impressive start with victory at Anfield last time out has really made people sit up and take notice of the work being carried out by Mauricio Pochettino (pictured), such a controversial appointment last January. Closer inspection brings greater surprise at how they’ve done it: clean sheets have been key, while many more points have been collected on the road than at home. In fact, Southampton have not won at St Mary’s in the Premier League since March 30. Their three league goals (the joint-lowest total in the top flight) have all come in the second half, with two coming in the last two minutes. Rickie Lambert, who scored twice the last time the clubs met, has scored 199 goals in English league football. He has had nine shots on goal in this season's Premier League, more than any other player. 

Suggested bet: Southampton only team to score (two units @ $2.35) WIN (2-0)

Other tips

Tottenham Hotspur WIN $2.40 v Chelsea FC LOSE (1-1)

Aston Villa v Manchester City (only score) $2.45 LOSE (3-2)
Fulham WIN $2.05 v Cardiff City LOSE (1-2)

Hull City v West Ham United (1-0) $5.75 WIN (1-0)

Manchester Utd v West Bromwich Albion BTS $1.94 WIN (2-3)

Swansea City v Arsenal +2.5 $1.80 WIN (1-2)

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