Daily tips for September 11

AFL week 2 finals preview for September 11

When it comes to the second week of the AFL finals, history is well written. It's been six years since a beaten qualifying final side was defeated in a semi-final, and Collingwood still needed extra-time to score that win over West Coast at Subiaco back in 2007. Overall, a staggering 93% of qualifying final losers have emerged victorious the following week. There are three simple reasons – 1) the bounce back factor; 2) they're playing at home and; 3) they're generally playing a side with a significantly inferior record.

Aside from three celebrated examples from the last decade, winning qualifying final sides have an equally high likelihood of reaching the Grand Final, with the week's rest and a home final crucial elements. Back in 2003, the Lions were chasing a third successive flag but stumbled to Collingwood in a low scoring qualifying final slog. But with history beckoning, Brisbane smashed its next three opponents (Adelaide, the Swans in Sydney and the Magpies) the secure a 'three-peat'.

Two years later, Sydney and West Coast played two incredibly tight Grand Finals. In 2005, the Swans lost the qualifying final then won the flag with West Coast following the same pattern in 2006. The four finals those sides played in those two years were decided by a total of 10 points! But historically, it's been bloody tough for elimination final winners to get past the second week of the finals, and equally hard for semi-final victors to reach the Grand Final. Could 2013 buck the trend?

Second Semi-Final: Geelong (18-4) v Port Adelaide (12-10), MCG, Friday, September 13, 7.50pm AEST – odds: Geelong $1.23, Port Adelaide $4.20; line 26.5; game total line 178.5

Port Adelaide will return to the MCG full of confidence after a stunning upset of Collingwood but I’m not expecting them to progress further than this. Credit to the Power, but they defeated a side that was little more than a disorganised rabble and threatened to break the record for direct kicks to the opposition. The pain of that 119-point loss in the 2007 Grand Final (the last time they met in September) may provide some incentive but Port have lost nine in a row to Geelong stretching back to that year.

The Cats were comprehensively torn apart by Freo but should find this easier. I’m expecting changes to the Cats’ ruck and forward set-ups while the loss of Corey Enright will be tough to overcome as Port, like the Dockers, can go tall or small on the forward line. I’m expecting Tom Hawkins and Andrew Mackie to play, while Josh Caddy is a 50/50 chance. With so many battered and bruised bodies, it’s unlikely that Geelong will blow the Power away so my early lean is with Port at the line.

First Semi-Final: Sydney (15-1-6) v Carlton (11-11), ANZ Stadium, Saturday, September 14, 7.45pm AEST – odds: Sydney $1.32, Carlton $3.40; line 22.5; game total line 179.5

If there’s to be an upset, it’s more likely to be here. The Swans’ injury problems are so bad, there is serious consideration being given to the recall of Adam Goodes (pictured) – he’s been out for 13 weeks and is yet to have a full week on the track. Jude Bolton and Jarrad McVeigh picked up injuries in last week’s defeat to Hawthorn, while Daniel Hannebery and Lewis Jetta are clearly below their best. No Franklin and no Rioli proved no worries for the Hawks as they held Sydney to seven goals while booting 11 goals to three after half-time.

Momentum is key in the finals and the Blues have it. They’ve run over the top of Port Adelaide and Richmond in successive weeks and are playing their best footy of the season. Michael Jamison and Lachie Henderson stifled the Tiger forwards while Nick Duigan (a late call-up for Brock McLean) proved a perfect foil in attack, booting 4.0 from 10 kicks. Chris Judd also battled through obvious pain and discomfort to turn the game single-handedly in the third term. Robbie Warnock also had a great day in the ruck. Like Port, the road dog looks appealing at the line here.

Racing for September 11

Horse racing: Mornington (Vic), Warwick Farm (NSW), Eagle Farm (Qld), Strathalbyn (SA), Belmont (WA). Harness racing: Bathurst (NSW), Redcliffe (Qld), Shepparton (Vic). Greyhound racing: Albion Park (Qld), Angle Park (SA), Ballarat (Vic), Bendigo (Vic), Bulli (NSW), Cannington (WA), Cranbourne (Vic), Richmond (NSW), Rockhampton (Qld), The Meadows (Vic).

It’s a fine and cool day on the Mornington Peninsula for the eight-race meeting at Mornington, which will be run on an ideal dead (4). Peter Moody has a strong hand across the program and I expect his progressive 4yo #6 Office Bearer to continue through the grades in Sportingbet’s Protest Pay Up Handicap (race 6 over 1200 metres). This lightly-raced entire resumed in excellent order at Sandown three weeks ago winning a similar race over 1000m, and carrying half a kilogram more than what he's been asked to lug today. He beat home a decent looking field too, rattling home in 32.52sec over the last 600m. Luke Nolen jumps back on board today and the step up to 1200m should only offer scope for further improvement for this winner of four from six.

Suggested bet: Mornington R6 #6 Office Bearer E/W 1x4 (two units) 3rd ($1.60)

Other tips

Mornington R1 #9 Cadillac Mountain (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Mornington R2 #2 Turquoise King (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.50)

Mornington R4 #5 Soros (win) LOSE (3rd)

Warwick Farm R1 #2 Tenby Lady (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.50)

Warwick Farm R2 #1 Flak Jacket (E/W) 2nd ($2.40)

Warwick Farm R5 #6 Murder of Crows (win) 1st ($2.40)

Warwick Farm R6 #1 Our Desert Warrior (E/W 1x4) 1st ($2.40/$1.40)

Warwick Farm R7 #9 Saigon Tea SCRATCHED

Eagle Farm R2 #5 Supercoach (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Eagle Farm R3 #6 Vis A Tergo (win) 1st ($1.80)

Strathalbyn R4 #1 Brinkley Brave (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($2.30)

Strathalbyn R7 #11 Portici (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.80)

MLB for September 11

Oakland Athletics (83-60, 36-33 away) @ Minnesota Twins (62-80, 29-39 home), Target Field, Minneapolis, MN, Wednesday, September 11, 10.10am

After an impressive home stand, the surging Oakland Athletics are hoping to see their momentum carry over on the road. Giving the ball to Jarrod Parker could help them do just that. Parker looks to extend his career-best winning streak to 10 here as Oakland renews its season series with the Minnesota Twins, who are coming off their first home victory in nearly a month. The Athletics (83-60) have climbed into first place in the AL West behind an 11-3 run, a stretch during which they have hit .303 while outscoring opponents 79-47. Oakland visits Target Field seeking a fourth consecutive win after concluding an 8-2 home stand with Sunday's 7-2 victory over Houston. Winners in 15 of their last 20 against the AL Central, the A's have to be feeling good about turning to Parker (11-6, 3.57 ERA). The right-hander hasn't lost since May 22, going 9-0 with a 2.59 ERA in his last 18 starts. Parker outdueled Texas’ Yu Darvish on Wednesday, yielding two runs and five hits in six innings of an 11-4 victory. Parker went 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two matchups against the Twins last year, both of which came in Minnesota.

The Twins (62-80) enter this three-game set with some momentum after snapping a franchise worst-tying 10-game home losing streak with yesterday’s 6-3 victory over the Los Angeles Angels. Minnesota is 8-21 at home since June 30, the majors' second-worst record over that stretch. Minnesota now turns to Liam Hendriks (1-2, 5.28) for his first home start after making six on the road. The right-hander was tagged for five runs (three earned) and eight hits over 4 1/3 innings in Wednesday's 6-5 walk-off loss at Houston. In his only appearance versus Oakland, Hendriks surrendered four runs in five innings in a 5-1 road loss on August 22, 2012. He will need to be careful against Yoenis Cespedes, who is 13 for 32 with two homers in eight games this month. Cespedes led the A's to five wins in their final six games against the Twins last year, hitting safely in each while going 11 for 24 with two homers and eight RBIs. Oakland's Josh Donaldson is expected to rejoin the line-up after sitting out Sunday due to a strained right quad. The third baseman is 10 for 22 with two homers, five doubles and five RBIs during a five-game hitting streak.

Suggested bet: Oakland WIN (two units @ $1.56) LOSE (3-4)

Other tips

IL: Pirates @ Rangers WIN $1.81 LOSE +8.5 $1.98 WIN (5-4)

AL: Yankees WIN $2.07 WIN @ Orioles -9 $1.91 LOSE (7-5)
AL: Royals @ Indians WIN $1.86 LOSE +8.5 $1.88 WIN (6-3)
AL: Angels @ Blue Jays WIN $1.79 LOSE +9 $2.06 WIN (12-6)
AL: Red Sox WIN $2.35 @ Rays WIN (2-0)
AL: Tigers WIN $1.66 @ White Sox WIN (9-1)

AL: Astros @ Mariners +8 $1.86 WIN (13-2)
NL: Padres WIN $1.88 @ Phillies WIN (8-2)
NL: Cubs @ Reds WIN $1.44 LOSE (9-1)
NL: Nationals @ Mets WIN $2.24 LOSE (6-3)
NL: Braves WIN $1.61 @ Marlins WIN (4-3)
NL: Brewers @ Cardinals -1.5 $2.10 WIN (2-4)

NL: D'backs @ Dodgers WIN $1.90 WIN +7.5 $1.94 WIN (3-5)

NL: Rockies WIN $2.02 WIN @ Giants +7 $2.05 WIN (9-8)

Football for September 10-11

World Cup qualifier – Europe Group H: Ukraine (4-2-1) v England (4-3), Olympic Stadium, Kiev, Ukraine, Wednesday, September 11, 4.45am

England travels to Ukraine to play a crucial World Cup qualifying match. Both teams enter the game after big wins on Friday. England beat Moldova 4-0 at Wembley while Ukraine won 9-0 against San Marino. The results, coupled with Poland’s 1-1 draw against Montenegro’s 1-1, have opened up the possibility of all four teams qualifying. After Friday's games, England leads with 15 points, tied with Montenegro and one point ahead of Ukraine. Poland are in fourth position with 10 points. Montenegro have played one more game than their rivals, meaning they will not be in action on Tuesday. With only three games remaining, a win for England would almost guarantee qualification, as they would open up a three-point gap on Montenegro, a four-point gap on Ukraine and an eight-point gap to Poland. A win for Ukraine would see them overtake England and lead the group. Unfortunately for fans, a draw would suit both teams, maintaining the point differential at one with two games to play.

Hodgson is struggling to find fit strikers for the game. Wayne Rooney is out with a cut to the head, Daniel Sturridge has a thigh injury and Andy Carroll is unavailable due to a foot problem. Furthermore, after having picked up a yellow card in the game against Moldova, Danny Welbeck is suspended. Southampton striker Rickie Lambert (pictured) is expected to lead the forward line. Hodgson also has a problem on his right back. Glen Johnson and Phil Jones are both unavailable. Tottenham Hotspur defender Kyle Walker should play in their place. Ukraine manager Mykhaylo Fomenko is not suffering from injury crises like his counterpart. The coach, who has masterminded for straight wins in qualification since his appointment, will be hoping that attacking trio of Marko Devic, Yevhen Konoplyanka and Andriy Yarmolenko can break down England’s defence. The Ukraine team have been active in playing mind games. Captain Anatoliy Tymoshchuk publically stated that despite his opponent's star names, Ukraine are the better team.

Suggested bet: Ukraine DRAW NO BET (two units @ $1.84) WIN (0-0)

Other tips

Macedonia v Scotland (BTS) $2.05 WIN (1-2)

Armenia (DNB) $2.25 v Denmark LOSE (0-1)
Lithuania v Liechtenstein -2.5 $1.80 WIN (2-0)
Kazakhstan v Sweden (By 2) $3.65 LOSE (0-1)
Romania v Turkey -2.5 $1.85 WIN (0-2)
Wales v Serbia (DNB) $1.64 WIN (0-3)

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