Daily tips for September 24

AFL Grand Final preview: Dockers poised for upset

Grand Final: Hawthorn (19-3) v Fremantle (16-1-5), MCG, Saturday, September 28, 2.30pm AEST; Odds: Hawthorn (9-13 ATS, 1-1 finals ATS) $1.60, Fremantle (13-9 ATS, 2-0 finals ATS) $2.40; line 8.5 -> 9.5; game total line 168.5

AFL coaches try to keep things as normal as possible in Grand Final week, and it’s mantra that could equally apply to betting on the big game. Just because it’s the final game of the year, you don’t need to bet just for the sake of betting. Sure, there’s added pressure combined with an atypical lead-up to the game but, once the ball is bounced, it’s still a game of AFL football played over four quarters. Much will also be made of the “revenge” factor for Hawthorn after losing to the Swans last year (it’s a good week to not follow the mainstream media as every minor detail will be blown wildly out of proportion). Just like any other week of the season, I’m looking for value and reckon there’s plenty on offer here – I’ll be siding strongly with the Fremantle Dockers to claim their first AFL premiership.

Fremantle will have several obstacles to overcome on Saturday but a rare trip to the MCG isn’t the hurdle that many punters anticipate. The Dockers have a much improved record at the ‘G’ over the past two years with a record of 3-2 in their past five visits compared to their all-time tally of just 12 wins from 41 visits. They’ve also managed a finals win (over Geelong in 2012) and smashed the Demons on their most recent trip to the ground by 95 points. The Dockers have already mounted a strong case that they can win, as coach Ross Lyon repeats, “any time, anywhere”, as underlined by their qualifying final victory over Geelong at Simonds Stadium, where the Cats had previously won 42 of their previous 43.

This will be the 12th time since the competition went national that a Victorian team has faced off against interstate opposition on Grand Final day. The record is 8-3 in favour of the non-Victorian clubs. Even the impact of the hometown crowd is minimised on Grand Final day. With a high level of corporate sales and the ready access for members and supporters of interstate clubs to purchase tickets, the Victorian club doesn’t have anywhere near the support it would expect in a home and away match. Fremantle and Hawthorn have members’ allocations of only about 14,000 seats each. AFL and MCC members, meanwhile, account for about 50,000, with the rest going to corporate allocations and AFL life members. And making their first Grand Final appearance, I’m expecting plenty of neutrals to side with the Purple Wave.

The other factor that skews the heads-to-head record between these sides is the scheduling of most Hawthorn home games against Fremantle at Aurora Stadium in Launceston – a venue at which the Hawks have a 29-11 record. In the past 17 years, the team that finished on top of the ladder has gone on to claim the premiership on just five occasions – a trend the Hawks couldn’t defy last year, and will be attempting to this time around. The last four times the best defence from the home-and-away season was matched up with the best attack in a grand final, the defensive unit has held sway by an average of seven goals. And in each of those games, it was non-Victorian sides beating Victorian sides.

The key to beating Hawthorn is being able to shut down their time and space, pressuring the ball carrier and allowing them as few uncontested marks as possible. Fremantle are fanatical in each of these areas, and won’t allow the Hawks the freedom of playing the game on their own terms. Aaron Sandilands has returned from injury in excellent form, and will allow the likes of Michael Barlow, David Mundy and the irrepressible Nat Fyfe first use of the ball. Sam Mitchell is the key prime mover for the Hawks, a fact that had apparently escaped Chris Scott and the Geelong players on Friday night. The amount of space he was given at stoppages and around the ground was criminal, a luxury he won’t be afforded this Saturday. He is so important to Hawthorn’s fortunes that if Ryan Crowley, who must surely get the job, can limit his influence, it will be the decisive factor in guaranteeing Fremantle’s victory.

Hawthorn has the best forward line in the league, led by the height and versatility of Jarryd Roughead, Lance Franklin and David Hale. The Dockers are well equipped to handle them though, with Luke McPharlin, Michael Johnson and Zac Dawson the best trio of tall defenders around. Fremantle have an array of forward options, led by Matthew Pavlich and Chris Mayne as the key targets, complemented by Michael Walters and Hayden Ballantyne. Their midfielders are also constantly hitting the scoreboard, providing a multi-faceted threat. Mayne laid 13 tackles against the Swans, followed by Ballantyne with eight. When the forwards apply that much pressure, it’s difficult for backmen to deliver with composure. If the Hawks break down in this area, they won’t be able to overcome the Dockers.

This Fremantle line-up bats deeper than St Kilda did under Ross Lyon in their grand final years of 2009-10, yet Hawthorn are probably not the equal of the victorious Geelong and Collingwood in those seasons. Lyon was able to push two great teams and almost pinch a flag or two, but the talent-to-talent equation is arguably more favourable for him this time. From a value perspective, I’m expecting the line to remain in the 9-10 point range in Hawthorn’s favour but the sharp money later in the week could reduce the line in as far as 6-7 points by the time of the first bounce. With no major team changes expected and conditions unlikely to overly impact the contest, I’m happy betting the 9.5 points currently on offer at most major books.

Note: I’ll provide an AFL Grand Final betting update on Friday after the final teams are announced.

Racing for September 24

Horse racing: Donald (Vic), Albury (NSW), Townsville (Qld), Wellington (NSW). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Menangle (NSW), Northam (WA), Shepparton (Vic). Greyhound racing: Devonport (Tas), Gawler (SA), Gosford (NSW), Goulburn (NSW), Healesville (Vic), Ipswich (Qld), Lismore (NSW), Mandurah (WA), Townsville (Qld), Warragul (Vic), Warrnambool (Vic).

With thanks to the team at Champion Picks, I thought you might like this column relating to punting on backmarkers: “Horses that get back in their races and finish strongly become punter's favourites very quickly. They appeal to the thrill-seeking psyche of a gambler since you expect, visualise and bet on this type of horse to finish over the top of them. Sure, this profile of horse is exciting to back and they can look really impressive when things go their way, but the problem is they often need a lot of luck in running to win.

Horses racing at the tail of the field need the pace on, they need to make ground without racing too wide and then need clear galloping room in the straight. Relying on luck and the best ride in the race isn't a great betting strategy but many punters are blinded by the burst a backmarker can produce when everything goes right. Looking at runners under 5/1 for all Sydney and Melbourne metro races the last 5 years, horses hard in the market that settled in the first six last start lost just 3% on turnover next time out. Those that had settled 7th or worse last time out lost 15% on turnover at their next start. So simple, yet so decisive.

It can't be any clearer that people over-rate horses that settle back and finish hard. 'Flashing light' horses are dramatically over-bet as a group. They need a lot of things that are out of their control to go their own way, whereas on-pacers tend make their own luck and be far more reliable betting propositions. So make sure you have a very good idea of where your horse is likely to be in the run, because what happens late in a race depends greatly on what happened early. A punter without a speed map is like a jockey without a whip; there will be the occasional winner but it's going to be very hard work.

Daily tips

Donald R2 #1 Actionova (E/W 1x2) LOSE (U/P)

Donald R4 #6 Return Soldier (E/W 1x2) LOSE (U/P)

Donald R7 #6 Tricky Glen (E/W 1x3) 1st ($3.10/$1.60)

Albury R1 #7 Real Calm (win) LOSE (2nd)

Albury R2 #7 Direct Response (E/W 1x2) 1st ($4.00/$2.00)

Albury R6 #8 Get's Better (E/W 1x2) 1st ($3.70/$1.60)

Wellington R3 #2 Carbonite (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.60)

Wellington R5 #1 Dashexpress (win) 1st $3.30

Wellington R6 #5 Miss Ta Ta (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Wellington R7 #3 Totally Wild (win) LOSE (4th)

Townsville R4 #1 Alexander Parade (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.50)

NFL (week 3) for September 24

Oakland Raiders (1-1, 0-1 away) @ Denver Broncos (2-0, 1-0 home), Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, CO, Tuesday, September 24, 10.40am

Two week 3 games opened with rare two TD lines, with the Jags failing to cover even with a 19-point start. However, I’m more bullish about the Raiders’ chances of keeping the score within two TDs as they head to Denver. Oakland has split its first two games behind dual-threat quarterback Terrelle Pryor (pictured), who was expected to be the team's back-up before beating out Matt Flynn for the starting job in the pre-season. Oakland's strategy to combat Manning and Denver's high-powered offence will likely be to play keep-away and rely on a running attack that averaged a league-best 198.5 yards in the first two games. Pryor has been an integral part of that success, setting a franchise record with 112 yards on the ground in a season-opening loss at Indianapolis while running back Darren McFadden rumbled for 129 yards in last week's 19-9 victory over Jacksonville. The Raiders are 11-2 when McFadden rushes for more than 100 yards. Oakland's defence ranks fourth in the league with an average of 261 yards allowed and will look to exploit Ryan Clady's absence (the starting left tackle is out with a season-ending Lisfranc foot injury) with a unit that has collected nine sacks.

The Broncos have experienced little adversity in posting a pair of dominating wins , but that is about to change as they prepare to host the Oakland Raiders on Monday Night Football. Peyton Manning is off to a sizzling start but he could be looking over his shoulder after the Broncos lost Clady. Denver has won 13 consecutive regular-season games, the longest winning streak in the NFL. Manning's passer rating is off the charts at a league-leading 131.0 after throwing for 769 yards with nine touchdowns and zero interceptions through two games. He has weapons all over the field in the wide receiver troika of Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker to go with emerging tight end Julius Thomas, and former first-round draft pick Knowshon Moreno fortified the running game with a 93-yard, two-touchdown effort in last week's 41-23 win at the New York Giants. A defence that is missing suspended linebacker Von Miller could get a boost with the expected return of Pro Bowl cornerback Champ Bailey. The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Denver while the ‘over’ is 5-2 in the last seven meetings. I’ll be following these trends here.

Suggested bets: Oakland Raiders +14.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE, game total +48.5 (three units @ $1.91) WIN (21-37)

MLB for September 24

AL: Baltimore Orioles (81-74, 39-41 away) @ Tampa Bay Rays** (86-69, 50-30 home), Tropicana Field, St Petersburg, FL, Tuesday, September 24, 5.10am

Tampa Bay’s pitching has silenced the Baltimore Orioles’ offence for three straight days, bringing the Rays a step closer to the post-season. The surging Rays will go for a four-game sweep here as they look to strengthen their grip on the top wild-card spot. Following strong performances from David Price and Alex Cobb in the first two games of this series, Enny Romero was outstanding for Tampa Bay in his major league debut yesterday. Rays pitching has held the Orioles to a .163 average (20 for 123) in this series, after Baltimore batted .171 in the previous series against Boston. The Orioles have lost eight of 12, batting .207 during that span. With their eighth win in 11 tries, the Rays (86-69) maintained a one-half game lead over Cleveland in the race for the first wild-card position and extended their advantage over Texas to two games. The Rays seek to finish their second four-game sweep of the season behind Chris Archer (9-7, 3.02 ERA, pictured). His one career start against Orioles was his second outing of the year, a 2-1 win on June 7 in which he allowed a run and two hits in seven innings. The right-hander is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his last two starts, yielding two runs over six innings last Wednesday in a 4-3 win over Texas.

Baltimore’s ninth-inning run yesterday was its second in the last 29 innings after going scoreless in the final 11 of Saturday’s 18-inning game and managing one Sunday. Baltimore (81-74), meanwhile, dropped 4 1/2 games behind the second wild-card berth with seven to play. Baltimore’s Bruce Chen (7-7, 4.03) hasn’t won in over a month, but that win came against the Rays. He threw seven innings of two-run ball in a 4-2 victory on August 21. Since then, the left-hander is 0-1 with a 7.36 ERA in five starts. It's a span in which he hasn't been able to get left-handed hitters out with his usual success. He's held left-handed hitters to a .224 average for the year, but in the last five starts, they're batting .364 and slugging .727. Chen is 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA in two starts against the Rays this year. He’s yielded three earned runs or less in six of seven career meetings. Rays third baseman Evan Longoria was scratched from yesterday’s line-up with the flu, though he entered the game as a defensive replacement. Center fielder Desmond Jennings left the game with left hamstring tightness. The two are a combined 4 for 28 lifetime against Chen, but Ben Zobrist is 10 for 20 with a home run. Tampa Bay has won 12 of 18 against Baltimore this season.

Suggested bet: Game total -7.5 (two units @ $1.83) LOSE (4-5)

Other tips

AL: Astros @ Rangers** -8.5 $1.91 LOSE (0-12)
AL: Blue Jays @ White Sox WIN $1.74 WIN (2-3)
AL: Tigers @ Twins +1.5 $2.17 WIN (3-4)
AL: Athletics* @ Angels +8 $2.03 WIN (10-5)
AL: Royals** WIN $1.74 WIN @ Mariners +8 $1.91 WIN (6-5)
NL: Brewers @ Braves* WIN $1.85 LOSE (5-0)
NL: Mets @ Reds** -1.5 $1.85 LOSE (2-3)
NL: Phillies @ Marlins WIN $1.90 WIN +7 $1.85 LOSE (0-4)
NL: Pirates** WIN $1.77 @ Cubs WIN (2-1)
NL: Nationals** WIN $2.40 LOSE @ Cardinals* -7.5 $1.77 WIN (3-4)
NL: D'backs WIN $1.94 LOSE @ Padres -7 $1.95 WIN (1-4)

* = playoff spot, ** = wild card contender

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