Daily tips for September 22

Racing for September 22

Horse racing: Ballarat (Vic), Hawkesbury (NSW), Dalby (Qld), Naracoorte (SA), Belmont (WA), Swan Hill (Vic), Queanbeyan (NSW), Hobart (Tas), Pioneer Park (NT). Harness racing: Launceston (Tas), Mildura (Vic). Greyhound racing: Albion Park (Qld), Canberra (ACT), Horsham (Vic), Mt Gambier (SA), Sale (Vic), Sandown Park (Vic), Strathalbyn (SA).

It’s a great day of racing around the country, with my best of the day scheduled to jump in the last of the seven races scheduled at Hawkesbury, where the track is a good (3) and the weather fine. A field of 11 will jump in the Fernhill Picnic's Saturday 9th November 2013 BM70 Handicap over 1400m where #6 Simply Brilliant looks hard to beat. Trained by Bjorn Baker and ridden here by Nathan Berry, the 6yo mare is fitter for two very solid runs back off a lay-off of almost three years! She ran on against the trend first-up at Warwick Farm then was checked on jumping before zooming-up late into third over 1300m last time. Up in distance and back to the provincials, she’ll provide a skinny final leg of the quadrella.

Suggested bet: Hawkesbury R7 #6 Simply Brilliant E/W 1x3 (two units) 2nd ($2.00)

Other tips

Ballarat R3 #10 Saker (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.60)

Ballarat R7 #5 Live For Today (win) LOSE (3rd)

Ballarat R8 #10 Northern Journey (E/W 1x3) 1st ($3.50/$1.50)

Hawkesbury R2 #7 Brilliant Crystal (win) LOSE (2nd)

Hawkesbury R4 #5 Sigismund (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.50)

Hawkesbury R6 #6 Leebaz (win) 1st ($3.80)

Dalby R4 #1 Rocket Boots (E/W 1x4) 1st ($2.80/$1.30)

Dalby R7 #4 Easy Game (win) LOSE (2nd)

Belmont R3 #5 Battle Ace (E/W 1x3) ABANDONED

Swan Hill R4 #2 Testaman (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Queanbeyan R5 #2 Gunner (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Naracoorte R6 #5 Nothing By Half (E/W 1x2) 1st ($4.50/$1.80)

Harness racing tip: Launceston R2 #3 Givitaname (win) 1st ($2.60) 
Greyhound racing tip: Horsham R6 #8 Taper Jean Girl (win) 1st ($2.00)

UFC 165 for September 22

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship; Jon Jones (18-1) v Alexander Gustafsson (15-1), Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada, Sunday, September 22, 1.30pm

Jon Jones (18-1) is the best mixed martial arts competitor in the world and he is the reigning and defending UFC light heavyweight champion. Currently riding a nine-fight win streak since a controversial DQ loss to Matt Hamill in 2009, Jones can break the record for 205-pound title defences if he gets through Alexander Gustafsson this weekend. And the 26-year-old American really should, as he’s just a more complete fighter than Gustafsson at this point in time with his unique mix of unorthodox strikes, crafty submissions, and a ridiculous reach that makes it nearly impossible for opponents to hit him. Against Gustafsson, Jones will be taking on the tallest opponent of his career and the UFC is marketing the fight on the strength of that angle, but it doesn’t matter how tall Gustafsson is because Jones is just that good. The ground game more heavily leans towards Jones. Both fighters attempt takedowns at an average pace, but Jones has more success at landing them. On defense, Gustafsson has been good at defending takedowns, but Jones has been perfect. Once on the ground, Jones has never been put on his back, while Gustafsson has spent approximately a third of his time there.

Gustafsson (15-1) is one of the top light heavyweights in the sport and earned his title shot with wins over the likes of Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, Thiago Silva and James Te Huna. The 26-year-old has good boxing, he circles very well in the cage with his top-notch footwork, and he also has a nifty submission game. He’s big, strong and young and he trains alongside Phil Davis – the only man to ever defeat him – which has really helped improve his wrestling. Gustafsson is accustomed to controlling the standup with a high pace and dominant cage control. However, there’s a hole in his game that is worth noting. For a long fighter, his jab accuracy is actually below average and his head-striking defence is downright bad. He may have a better reach than we thought, but that just makes me interpret his historical stats with even more skepticism. A rangy fighter should normally show good jab accuracy and striking defense, but Gustafsson doesn’t. Despite the submission attempt rate favoring the challenger, there’s no doubt that Jones is the greater submission threat. Gustafsson, on the other hand, has secured two rear naked chokes against opponents with questionable grappling skills.

Suggested bet: Total rounds +2.5 (two units @ $1.80) WIN, Jones by submission (one unit @ $2.40) LOSE (Jones by decision)

CFL (week 13) for September 22

Toronto Argonauts (7-4) @ Calgary Stampeders (9-2), McMahon Stadium, Calgary, AB, Sunday, September 22, 9.40am

The Toronto Argonauts’ road-warrior status will be put to the test against a fellow division leader when they visit the Calgary Stampeders. The Argonauts are 4-1 on the road, but the Stampeders stand 5-0 at home and have ridden a four-game winning streak to the top of the West Division. East Division-leading Toronto has won two straight despite missing top offensive players such as quarterback Ricky Ray and slotback Chad Owens, moving into second in the CFL power rankings behind Calgary. Coach Scott Milanovich said Owens is doubtful for this one, marking the second straight game last season’s Most Outstanding Player will miss. Running back Chad Kackert returned from injury last week but left after a helmet-to-helmet hit in the first half and his status here is also uncertain. Jerious Norwood ran for 73 yards and one touchdown replacing Kackert. Linebacker Robert McCune leads the team with 60 tackles.

The Stampeders are no strangers to battling through injuries. Even though Calgary lost top slotback Nik Lewis for the season and is still without starting QB Drew Tate, third-string quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell (pictured) is making a strong case to start more games with a completion rate of 70.3 per cent and 10 touchdown passes to just three interceptions. Mitchell completed 4-of-6 passes in limited action during Calgary 35-14 victory in Toronto in Week 9, but he and young Argonauts QB Zach Collaros will take centre stage in a game Ottawa Redblacks scouts would be smart to watch. Defensive linemen Charleston Hughes and Cordarro Law set the tone on Calgary’s defense, accounting for 21 of the team’s 41 sacks. Defensive back Fred Bennett has a team-leading three interceptions. Running back Jon Cornish reached 1000 rushing yards for the second straight season last week against the Hamilton Tiger-Cats. Mitchell is second on the team with 145 rushing yards.

Suggested bets: Toronto +7.5 (two units @ $1.91) WIN, game total +56 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (33-27)

Other tips

Montreal Alouettes +7.5 WIN @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats -52.5 LOSE (26-28)

MLB for September 22

AL: Minnesota Twins (65-88, 34-45 away) @ Oakland Athletics (91-63, 50-29 home), O.co Coliseum, Oakland, CA, Sunday, September 22, 6.10am

If the Oakland Athletics continue their surge against the Minnesota Twins, they could be celebrating a second straight division title tonight. The Athletics can clinch a share of the AL West title after homering five times halfway through this four-game home set. Five different Oakland players have homered in this series, with three going deep in Friday’s 8-6 win and two more in yesterday’s 11-0 rout. The Athletics (91-63) have won 19 of 25. Josh Donaldson and Yoenis Cespedes were the latest Athletics to leave the ballpark on Saturday, helping slice the club’s magic number to win the West to two. Oakland can clinch the title with a victory and a loss by second-place Texas later at night in Kansas City. Oakland has won four straight in the season series by outscoring Minnesota 45-11 since a 4-3 road loss on September 10. The Twins (65-88) made it easy for the A’s on Saturday with a season-high four errors, and Oakland scored five unearned runs in the fifth inning.

The Athletics will start Jarrod Parker (11-7, 3.81 ERA, pictured), whose 19-start unbeaten streak ended Monday when he surrendered eight runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 12-1 defeat to the Angels. His streak was the longest by an A's pitcher since Lefty Grove went 21 such games in a row in 1931. The right-hander is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in three career starts against the Twins. Oakland will get its first look at Pedro Hernandez (3-1, 5.26), who has never recorded an out past the sixth inning in 11 career starts. The Twins have won all three starts this month by the left-hander, recalled from the minors on August 30. Hernandez has no decisions and a 4.60 ERA in those outings. Minnesota has lost 12 of 16 and continues to look to the future in the hopes young players like Oswaldo Arcia will blossom. Arcia is 7 for 20 with three solo homers in the season series.

Suggested bet: Oakland WIN (four units @ $1.43) WIN (1-9)

Other tips (early games)

IL: Giants @ Yankees WIN $1.66 WIN (0-6)
NL: Braves WIN $1.74 LOSE @ Cubs -7.5 $2.00 WIN (1-3)
AL: Orioles** @ Rays** WIN $1.69 WIN -7.5 $1.75 WIN (1-5)
AL: Astros @ Indians** -1.5 $1.80 WIN +8.5 $1.95 LOSE (1-4)

Other tips (early games)

AL: White Sox @ Tigers WIN $1.76 WIN (6-7)
AL: Blue Jays @ Red Sox* WIN $1.71 LOSE (4-2)
AL: Rangers** @ Royals** WIN $1.95 LOSE (3-1)
AL: Mariners @ Angels +9 $2.11 WIN (5-6)
NL: Marlins @ Nationals** -1.5 +7.5 $2.10 POSTPONED
NL: Mets WIN $1.97 WIN @ Phillies +8.5 $1.91 WIN (5-4)
NL: Reds** @ Pirates** WIN $1.94 WIN (2-4)
NL: Cardinals WIN $1.72 @ Brewers WIN (7-2)
NL: D'backs @ Rockies WIN $2.05 LOSE (7-2)
NL: Dodgers* @ Padres +6 $1.81 LOSE (4-0)

* = playoff spot, ** = wild card contender

NCAAF (week 4) for September 22

(23) Arizona State Sun Devils (2-0) @ (5) Stanford Cardinal (2-0), Stanford Stadium, Stanford, CA, Sunday, September 22, 9.30am

Arizona State is coming off a thrilling yet controversial win, but the Sun Devils have no time to celebrate as they face a tough challenge with a road game against Stanford. The 23rd-ranked Sun Devils emerged with a 32-30 victory over Wisconsin last week when the Badgers mismanaged the clock and failed to get off a last-second field goal. Arizona State was fortunate to defeat Wisconsin, but a match-up with No. 5 Stanford should provide another stiff test in what easily could be a Pac-12 title game preview. The Sun Devils will need improved play out of a rushing offence that, despite the touchdown production of Marion Grice (pictured), ranks just 85th in the nation with 137.5 yards per game. On the bright side, Taylor Kelly set a career high with 352 passing yards against Wisconsin and has thrown for at least 300 yards in both games this season.

The Cardinal have three match-ups with ranked teams in the next five weeks, so they will need senior running back Tyler Gaffney (236 yards, three touchdowns in 2013) to be on top of his game. Of course, they won’t be getting any sympathy cards from the Sun Devils, who are in the midst of a six-game stretch that includes four ranked opponents. The Cardinal defence, which statistically was the best in the Pac-12 last season, returns eight starters from 2012. However, Stanford has won its first two games on the heels of a dynamic offence led by Gaffney and junior Kevin Hogan, who has five passing touchdowns on the season, two of which have gone to Ty Montgomery. The Cardinal have scored exactly 34 points in each of their first two games – wins over San Jose State and Army – though it’s their pass defence (7th nationally) that has really turned heads through the season’s first two weeks.

Suggested bet: Stanford -6.5 (1.5 units @ $1.95) WIN, game total +52.5 (2.5 units @ $1.91) WIN (28-42)

Other tips

Cincinnati @ Miami Ohio +23 WIN (14-0)

Marshall +11 @ Virginia Tech WIN (21-29)

Ball State -9.5 @ Eastern Michigan WIN (51-20)

Kent State @ Penn State +53.5 LOSE (0-34)

West Virginia @ Maryland -5 WIN (0-37)

Utah State +6.5 WIN @ USC +49.5 LOSE (14-17)

Arkansas +2.5 @ Rutgers LOSE (24-28)
Texas State @ Texas Tech -26 PUSH (7-33)

UL Monroe @ Baylor +75.5 WIN (7-70)

Vanderbilt -31 LOSE @ Massachusetts -52 WIN (24-7)

North Carolina @ Georgia Tech -6.5 WIN (20-28)

North Texas @ Georgia +66.5 LOSE (21-45)

Arkansas State @ Memphis +4 WIN (7-31)

Kansas State @ Texas +58 LOSE (21-31)

Tennessee +16.5 @ Florida WIN (17-31)

Purdue @ Wisconsin +49 WIN (10-41)

San Jose State @ Minnesota +50.5 WIN (24-43)

Wyoming -5 WIN @ Air Force -66.5 LOSE (56-23)

Michigan State @ Notre Dame +42 LOSE (13-17)

Louisiana Tech +10.5 @ Kansas WIN (10-13)

Louisiana-Lafayette -5 @ Akron PUSH (35-30)

Auburn @ LSU +55 WIN (21-35)

New Mexico State @ UCLA +42 WIN (13-59)

EPL for September 21-22

Norwich City (1-1-2) v Aston Villa (1-0-3), Carrow Road, Norwich, UK, Saturday, September 21, 9.45pm

It’s far too early to make predictions with any real confidence, but it is beginning to look as though Norwich and Aston Villa will be knocking around in the same section of the Premier League table for much of the campaign. The Canaries’ problem last season was goal scoring, and with former Celtic striker Gary Hooper yet to make his debut because of injury it’s hard to say whether they have really solved that. Ricky van Wolfswinkel is yet to get into his stride and Johan Elmander’s game has never been about his goal ratio. Hooper was on the bench at Tottenham last weekend and will be hoping to get his boots dirty against Villa. By far Norwich’s biggest plus so far has been Nathan Redmond (pictured), who looks the real deal when he cuts in from the left wing onto his right foot – rather like Hatem Ben Arfa only from the other flank. Redmond’s ability to vary and disguise his threat will improve with experience but the raw materials are there.

There’s no disguising Villa’s threat – Christian Benteke has scored 20 goals in 2013 in all competitions. That’s one more than nearest rival Robin van Persie and three more than the next best, Daniel Sturridge. It’s really just as well that Benteke has been so prolific this calendar year because Villa’s last Premier League clean sheet was back in 2012 and their search for defensive solidity has not been helped by the long-term injury to Jores Okore. The stellar result on the opening day at Arsenal has been followed by three defeats, which is their worst run since they were beaten by Chelsea, Spurs and Wigan in successive games last December with a combined score of 15-0. However tough it gets for Villa this season, it shouldn't get as bad as that. Villa won on both visits to Carrow Road last season: 4-1 in a League Cup quarter-final last December, and then 2-1 in the Premier League in May when Gabby Agbonlahor scored his second goal of the game in the last minute.

Suggested bet: Both Teams to Score (two units @ $1.70) LOSE (0-1)

Other tips

Liverpool (by 1) $3.50 v Southampton LOSE (0-1)
Newcastle WIN $1.77 v Hull LOSE (2-3)
WBA v Sunderland +2.5 $1.90 WIN (3-0)
West Ham v Everton +2.5 $2.10 WIN (2-3)
Chelsea (only to score) $2.05 v Fulham WIN (2-0)

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