Daily tips for September 28

NRL (week 3 finals) for September 28

Preliminary Final: Sydney Roosters v Newcastle Knights, Allianz Stadium, Sydney, Saturday, September 28, 7.45pm

This grand final qualifier between the Roosters and Knights shapes as a seriously intriguing match-up – as unlikely as it would have seemed as recently as a fortnight ago. The Knights were not heavily favoured to make it past the opening week of the finals, travelling down to Sydney for a sudden-death elimination final against a strong Bulldogs outfit. Instead they produced one of the most complete performances of any side so far in this year’s final series, and the lone 13-plus win of the six games so far. They then one better with a gutsy, resilient 80-minute effort to upset the Storm in Melbourne. As much as they weren’t widely tipped to go this far, it’s impossible to argue the Knights don’t deserve to be one of the final four teams left alive based on their recent performances. They were almost struck a mortal blow in the shadows of full-time last week though, when halfback Tyrone Roberts stepped off his right foot and crumpled to the turf clutching his right knee in agony. Concerns over a ruptured ACL were abated when Roberts was eventually able to return to his feet, stretch his leg out and finish the game.

The Roosters will return to the fray well rested, one would think, and it was a timely week off given the physical nature of the Manly clash. One of the lowest-scoring NRL games in recent memory certainly wasn’t lacking for excitement as both courageous defence and some sloppy handling while on the attack from both sides led to a tense dogfight. The week off means coach Trent Robinson has little to worry about on the injury front. The notable change is the return from suspension of prop Jared Waerea-Hargreaves (pictured), who pushes Luke O’Donnell back to a six-man bench that also sees the addition of Isaac Liu. This game will come down to talent. Even though the Knights can match the Roosters in speed and size, roosters have too much star power and talent in their squad characterised by Sonny Bill Williams, James Maloney, Michael Jennings and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck. The Knights will be determined and inspired but I cannot see them pulling off another upset especially on the Roosters’ home paddock. However, they’ll throw everything at the Roosters and should keep the margin respectable.

Suggested bet: Roosters 1-12 (1.5 units @ $2.90)

Racing for September 28

Today’s highlights

Rosehill R2 G2 $250,000 Stan Fox Stakes (1500m) 

Rosehill R3 G3 $125,000 TAB Colin Stephen Quality (2400m) 

Rosehill R5 G3 $250,000 Golden Pendant (1400m) 

Rosehill R6 G3 $200,000 PJ'S Irish Pub Parramatta Gloaming Stakes (1800m) 

Rosehill R7 G2 $175,000 Ascend Sales Trophies Shannon Stakes (1500m) 

Mornington R6 Listed $125,000 RM Ansett Classic (2415m)

Horse racing: Mornington (Vic), Rosehill (NSW), Eagle Farm (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Belmont (WA), Gold Coast (Qld), Newcastle (NSW), Bowraville (NSW). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Menangle (NSW), Mildura (Vic), Globe Derby (SA). Greyhound racing: The Gardens (NSW), Traralgon (Vic), Richmond (NSW), The Meadows (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Cannington (WA).

A huge weekend of racing continues today after last night’s Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley, won impressively by Samaready. All eyes will be on Rosehill Gardens today for the running of the Stan Fox Stakes – just one of five Group races on the eight-race card. My best of the day will jump from barrier 4 in the TAB Colin Stephen Quality over 2400 metres (race 3). Trained by Gai Waterhouse with Nash Rawiller in the saddle, the 7yo Irish gelding #1 Julienas is fourth-up here. He ran some of the fastest final splits of the meeting last start in the Kingston Town and held a strong effort over the final 500m of the race.  He was beaten by Wazn in the Wyong Cup two starts back but, up in distance here, should turn the tables.

Suggested bet: Rosehill R3 #1 Julienas WIN (two units) 1st ($2.40)

Other tips

Rosehill R1 #1 Ecuador (win) LOSE (2nd)
Rosehill R2 #3 Eurozone (win) 1st ($3.40)
Rosehill R4 #5 Kirramosa (E/W) LOSE (4th)
Rosehill R5 #2 Red Tracer (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.30)
Rosehill R6 #4 Drago (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($1.50)
Rosehill R7 #8 Your Honour (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Rosehill R8 #2 Heart Testa (E/W 1x2) 1st ($4.10/$1.60)
Mornington R1 #6 Lucky Striker (E/W) 1st ($7.30/$2.10)
Mornington R2 #11 Hannaford (E/W) 1st ($4.60/$1.90)
Mornington R4 #17 Red Samurai (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.40)
Mornington R5 #8 Wrotham Heath (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Mornington R6 #4 Surpass (win) LOSE (2nd)
Eagle Farm R3 #10 Qfighter (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($1.60)
Eagle Farm R5 #6 Show Us A Smile (win) LOSE (U/P)
Eagle Farm R6 #5 Tornado Miss (E/W) 1st ($6.30/$2.20)
Eagle Farm R8 #10 Magic In Motion (E/W 1x3)
Morphettville R1 #1 Red Magnet (win) 1st ($1.40)
Morphettville R4 #5 Sandhill Jett (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Morphettville R8 #2 Spirit Of Endeavour (E/W 1x4) LOSE (U/P)
Newcastle R5 #5 Busselton (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.60)

Harness racing tip: Mildura R3 #5 Glasscutterspirit (win)
Greyhound racing tip: The Meadows R8 #6 Lucy Wires (win)

AFL Grand Final for September 28

Grand Final: Hawthorn (19-3) v Fremantle (16-1-5), MCG, Saturday, September 28, 2.30pm AEST – odds: Hawthorn (9-13 ATS, 1-1 finals ATS) $1.60, Fremantle (13-9 ATS, 2-0 finals ATS) $2.40; line 8.5 ->9.5->7.5; game total line 168.5->166.5. Note: this is an updated version of the preview posted earlier this week, including suggested bets.

AFL coaches try to keep things as normal as possible in Grand Final week, and it’s mantra that could equally apply to betting on the big game. Just because it’s the final game of the year, you don’t need to bet just for the sake of betting. Sure, there’s added pressure combined with an atypical lead-up to the game but, once the ball is bounced, it’s still a game of AFL football played over four quarters. Much has been made of the “revenge” factor for Hawthorn after losing to the Swans last year (it was another good week to not follow the mainstream media as every minor detail was blown wildly out of proportion). Just like any other week of the season, I’m looking for value and reckon there’s plenty on offer here – I’ll be siding strongly with the Fremantle Dockers to claim their first AFL premiership.

First, the nuts and bolts – the Hawks have dominated the Dockers recently, winning the past four clashes between the teams and seven of the last eight, including three wins by more than 50 points. Overall, Hawthorn holds a 20-7 head-to-head advantage. The Hawks are aiming for their 11th VFL/AFL premiership, in their 17th Grand Final. The Hawks have won four of their last five Grand Finals dating back to 1988, and have reached consecutive premiership deciders for the first time since 1988. Fremantle will be playing in the first Grand Final of its 19-year history. Hawthorn and Fremantle have met only once before at the MCG, in round 11, 2011. The Hawks won that match by 22 points. There are 23 Hawks-listed players who have played in at least one Grand Final, with 10 having played in two or more. The Dockers have only two players who have played in a Grand Final: Dawson, who played in three with St Kilda, and Danyle Pearce, who played in Port Adelaide’s 2007 loss. Both coaches will be coaching in their third Grand Final.

This year’s Grand Final confirms that an AFL premiership season is actually composed of several segments. Virtually all of my season systems indicate a Hawthorn victory at the current price of $1.65. But using the last four weeks of the home and away season plus the finals, my price is almost the opposite. It’s interesting to note the numbers were almost identical in 2012 when Sydney defeated the Hawks. Based on the complete season’s stats, the Swans’ win rated the second biggest GF upset post-WWII. A Freo win would surpass that record (2008 ranks as the greatest upset in that period). But on those all-important late-season numbers, the game is Fremantle’s to lose. Also importantly, this marks the fifth time in modern AFL history that the competition’s highest ranked attack has clashed against the League’s top rated defence. The record reads 5-0 in favour of the top defence.

Fremantle will have several obstacles to overcome on Saturday but a rare trip to the MCG isn’t the hurdle that many punters anticipate. The Dockers have a much improved record at the ‘G’ over the past two years with a record of 3-2 in their past five visits compared to their all-time tally of just 12 wins from 41 visits. They’ve also managed a finals win (over Geelong in 2012) and smashed the Demons on their most recent trip to the ground by 95 points. The Dockers have already mounted a strong case that they can win, as coach Ross Lyon repeats, “any time, anywhere”, as underlined by their qualifying final victory over Geelong at Simonds Stadium, where the Cats had previously won 42 of their previous 43.

This will be the 12th time since the competition went national that a Victorian team has faced off against an interstate club in the Grand Final. The record is 8-3 in favour of the non-Victorian clubs. The impact of the hometown crowd is minimised on Grand Final day. With a high level of corporate sales and the ready access for members and supporters of interstate clubs to purchase tickets, the Victorian club doesn’t have anywhere near the support it would expect in a home and away match. Fremantle and Hawthorn have members’ allocations of only about 14,000 seats each. AFL and MCC members, meanwhile, account for about 50,000, with the rest going to corporate allocations and AFL life members. Making their first GF appearance, I’m expecting plenty of neutrals to ride the Purple Wave.

The other factor that skews the heads-to-head record between these sides is the scheduling of most Hawthorn home games against Fremantle at Aurora Stadium in Launceston – a venue at which the Hawks have a 29-11 record. In the past 17 years, the team that finished on top of the ladder has gone on to claim the premiership on just five occasions – a trend the Hawks couldn’t defy last year, and will be attempting to this time around. The last four times the best defence from the home-and-away season was matched up with the best attack in a grand final, the defensive unit has held sway by an average of seven goals. And in each of those games, it was non-Victorian sides beating Victorian sides.

The key to beating Hawthorn is being able to shut down their time and space, pressuring the ball carrier and allowing them as few uncontested marks as possible. Fremantle are fanatical in each of these areas, and won’t allow the Hawks the freedom of playing the game on their own terms. Aaron Sandilands has returned from injury in excellent form, and will allow the likes of Michael Barlow, David Mundy and Nat Fyfe first use of the ball. Sam Mitchell is the key prime mover for the Hawks, a fact that had apparently escaped Chris Scott and the Geelong players on Friday night. The amount of space he was given at stoppages and around the ground was criminal, a luxury he won’t be afforded this Saturday. He is so important to Hawthorn’s fortunes that if Ryan Crowley, who must surely get the job, can limit his influence, it will be the decisive factor in guaranteeing Fremantle’s victory.

Hawthorn has the best forward line in the league, led by the height and versatility of Jarryd Roughead, Lance Franklin and David Hale. The Dockers are well equipped to handle them though, with Luke McPharlin, Michael Johnson and Zac Dawson the best trio of tall defenders around. Fremantle have an array of forward options, led by Matthew Pavlich and Chris Mayne and complemented by Michael Walters and Hayden Ballantyne. Their midfielders are also constantly hitting the scoreboard. Mayne laid 13 tackles against the Swans, followed by Ballantyne (8). When the forwards apply that much pressure, it’s difficult for backmen to remain poised and to deliver with composure. If the Hawks break down in this area, they won’t be able to overcome the Dockers.

This Fremantle line-up bats deeper than St Kilda did under Ross Lyon in their grand final years of 2009-10, yet Hawthorn are probably not the equal of the victorious Geelong and Collingwood in those seasons. Lyon was able to push two great teams and almost pinch a flag or two, but the talent-to-talent equation is arguably more favourable for him this time. There was only one change to either side with Jonathan Simpkin named for the Hawks in place of the injured Brendan Whitecross. Aside from sore bodies, neither coach is taking a chance with a vastly underdone player. Weather could play a minor role if forecast rain rolls in tonight and tomorrow morning. The MCG surface drains well but the grass is particularly slippery, meaning more stoppages and turnovers are likely. After opening at 8.5 points, the line is into 7.5 points and I recommend betting sooner rather than later as the sharp money could reduce the line as low as six points. Enjoy the game!

Suggested bets

Fremantle +7.5 (1.5 units @ $1.91) LOSE (77-62)

Game total -166.5 (2.75 units @ $1.90) WIN

David Mundy (Norm Smith, 0.5 units @ $12) LOSE

Matthew Pavlich (Norm Smith, 0.5 units @ $12) LOSE

Draw (0.25 units @ $26) LOSE

MLB for September 28

AL: Tampa Bay Rays (90-69, 39-39) @ Toronto Blue Jays (72-87, 38-40 home), Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON, Saturday, September 28, 9.05am

I’ve been riding the red-hot Rays in their wild-card pursuit and see no reason to leave the bandwagon here as the AL wild card-leading Tampa Bay continue to inch closer to locking up a playoff spot. The Toronto Blue Jays’ R.A. Dickey, meanwhile, is set to conclude what's been a disappointing year. Seeking a season high-tying eighth consecutive win, the visiting Rays have a chance to clinch in the first of three against the Blue Jays. Evan Longoria (pictured) stayed hot with two hits and three RBIs and Delmon Young hit a home run as Tampa Bay (90-69) swept the New York Yankees with Thursday's 4-0 road win. The Rays, who have outscored opponents 37-13 during their winning streak, lowered their magic number for securing a wild-card berth to two. They can clinch with a win and a Texas loss to the Los Angeles Angels. Tampa Bay has now posted four consecutive 90-win seasons for the first time in franchise history. The Rays now turn their attention to Dickey (13-13, 4.27 ERA), who hasn't lived up to expectations in his first season with the Blue Jays.

The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, who had gone 4-0 with a 2.73 ERA in his previous five outings, struck out a season-high 11 and went the distance in Sunday's 5-2 loss at Boston. Dickey surrendered his 32nd and 33rd homers, the second-most in the majors. Dickey is 3-1 with a 2.40 ERA in six match-ups against the Rays since last year. Tampa Bay counters with Jeremy Hellickson (12-9, 5.16), who threw 2 1/3 scoreless innings of relief and earned the win last Friday in a 5-4, 18-inning victory over Baltimore. The right-hander, though, was hit hard in his last start, surrendering five runs before exiting with two outs in the third inning of a 7-1 loss to Texas on Sept. 17. His ERA ranks third highest in all of baseball among qualified pitchers. Hellickson is 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA during a six-start stretch versus Toronto. Brett Lawrie is 1 for 19 in their match-ups. Tampa Bay has won 24 of 33 against Toronto.

Suggested bet: Tampa Bay WIN (1.5 units @ $1.78) LOSE, game total +8 (2.5 units @ $2.02) WIN (3-6)

Other tips

IL: Tigers* WIN $1.69 LOSE @ Marlins -7.5 $1.95 WIN (2-3)

AL: Red Sox* WIN $1.83 WIN @ Orioles -7.5 $2.02 LOSE (12-3)

AL: Angels @ Rangers** +8.5 $2.02 LOSE (3-5)

AL: Royals WIN $1.92 WIN @ White Sox -6.5 $1.85 LOSE (6-1)

AL: Indians** WIN $1.53 @ Twins WIN (12-6)

AL: Yankees @ Astros -8 $2.16 WIN (3-2)

AL: Athletics* WIN $2.04 LOSE @ Mariners +6.5 $1.96 WIN (3-5)

NL: Pirates* @ Reds* WIN $1.77 LOSE (4-1)

NL: Brewers WIN $1.93 WIN @ Mets -7 $1.83 WIN (4-2)

NL: Phillies WIN $2.15 LOSE @ Braves* -6.5 $1.85 WIN (0-1)

NL: Cubs @ Cardinals* WIN $1.61 WIN (0-7)

NL: Nationals @ D'backs WIN $2.18 LOSE -7.5 $1.93 LOSE (8-4)

NL: Rockies @ Dodgers* -1.5 $1.87 WIN (0-11)

NL: Padres @ Giants +7 $1.88 WIN (3-7)

* = playoff spot, ** = wild card contender

NCAAF (week 5) for September 28

MWC: Utah State Aggies (2-2, 1-0 MWC) @ San Jose State Spartans (1-2, 1-0 home), Spartan Stadium, San Jose CA, Saturday, September 28, 11am

San Jose State and Utah State are both coming off a six-day turnaround to face each other at Spartan Stadium, but the game means different things to each team. For San Jose, they are fresh off their second trouncing at the hands of a bigger, more physical team. San Jose has so much to prove in this game on offence and avenge the crushing defeat they suffered last year when Utah State ran all over the Spartan defensive and offensive lines for 13 sacks, 212 rushing yards, 273 passing and 49 points. Utah State’s two losses have been fluky. They’re an offensive powerhouse but their secondary has given up just enough yards to lose two games. Even so, Utah State is heavily favoured in this match-up and they are in San Jose to prove that they’re able to crush all Mountain West opposition. Utah State has one of the more dynamic offensive players in the nation, with QB Chuckie Keeton (pictured) already throwing 14 TD passes this season.

Utah State’s losses have come against mid-level Pac-12 Conference opponents, including a 17-14 setback to the USC Trojans as 6.5-point road underdogs last Saturday. The Aggies have won the statistical battle in all four contests, but failed to score in the first quarter for the first time in 13 games last time out. San Jose State returns home after dropping a pair of road games, including a 43-24 defeat to the Minnesota Golden Gophers as four-point underdogs in Week 3, while going ‘over’ the betting total for the first time in three contests this season. The Spartans did manage to gain a season-high 486 yards in that affair, as QB David Fales continues to impress (ranking second nationally with a 164.8 career passer rating). Fales has plenty of weapons at his disposal in the passing game, but he won’t have wide receiver Noel Grigsby, who is out with a knee injury. The team still has two other options that have 1000-plus receiving yards.

Suggested bets: Game total +61.5 (three units @ 1.91) LOSE, Utah State -9.5 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (12-40)

Other tips

 

Mid Tennessee +27 @ BYU PUSH (10-37)

CFL (week 14) for September 28

BC Lions (8-4) @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2-10), Investors Group Field, Winnipeg, MB, Saturday, September 28, 10.05am

After letting a 20-point lead slip away at home in their last tilt, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers must be wondering what they need to do to win at their new stadium. The Blue Bombers will get another chance to improve on their dismal 1-5 record at Investors Group Field when they host the BC Lions. Despite having the league’s worst offence, Winnipeg sits just four points behind the Montreal Alouettes for the final playoff spot with six games remaining – and a win against a tired BC team would go a long way to closing that gap. Winnipeg quarterback Max Hall (pictured) will start here after leaving last week’s game late with an undisclosed injury. Hall, who has completed 52-of-81 passes with two touchdowns and five interceptions in his first CFL season, told reporters on Monday that he wanted to return to the game but team doctors kept him out as a precaution. Winnipeg’s defence is tied for the league lead in sacks with 45, but it is also averaging 293.1 passing yards allowed per game (second-worst in the league).

The Lions earned a hard-fought 24-22 road victory against Saskatchewan on Sunday without starting QB Travis Lulay, who will miss at least one more game with a shoulder injury. Back-up Thomas DeMarco performed well in his first career start, throwing for 208 yards and two touchdowns and completing two key passes in the final minute to set up the winning field goal. BC also limited Saskatchewan to 39 rushing yards in a defensive performance more typical of its home games. DeMarco was benched for part of the second quarter last week and replaced by Buck Pierce – a veteran quarterback recently acquired from Winnipeg. Pierce began his career with the Lions but became the starter for the Blue Bombers in 2010 and could make an appearance on Friday if DeMarco falters. BC’s defence, which has allowed a league-low 88.3 rushing yards per game and just 249.3 passing yards, is tied for the league lead in interceptions with 14. Cornerback Cord Parks has three of those picks in his first CFL season, returning one for a touchdown.

Suggested bets: Game total +50.5 (3.5 units @ $1.91) WIN, Winnipeg +5.5 (1.5 units @ $1.91) LOSE (53-17)

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