Daily tips for September 26

Racing for September 26

Horse racing: Seymour (Vic), Hawkesbury (NSW), Rockhampton (Qld), Port Lincoln (SA), Northam (WA), Lismore (NSW). Harness racing: Gold Coast (Qld), Penrith (NSW), Terang (Vic). Greyhound racing: Warragul (Vic), Grafton (NSW), Shepparton (Vic), Maitland (NSW), Albion Park (Qld), Warrnambool (Vic), Sandown Park (Vic), Angle Park (SA), Hobart (Tas), Dapto (NSW), Mandurah (WA).

The mercury is tipped to climb into the 30s for today’s running of the $45,000 XXXX Gold Lismore Cup on NSW’s far north coast. The Cup itself, run over 2100 metres, looks a tricky affair with Sea Skye an easing favourite while Phrases, Special Miss and Castlemagne King are all capable of winning. My best of the day comes up earlier on the eight-race card in the Lismore Workers Club Rousillon BM67 Handicap (1516m). The Peter Youngberry-trained #2 Mini Delago is in rare form and looks poised for a third successive win. Despite being an eight-year-old mare Mini Delago is racing in career-best form winning a BM60 at Grafton on August 26 before making it back-to-back wins in a BM70 at Ballina on September 30. The daughter of Encosta De Lago looks well treated taking on benchmark 67 company with 57.5kg and will be ridden by Ben Looker, who has an affinity with the mare riding her to victory on three occasions including the two recent wins.

• Punters should take note the first race at Moonee Valley tomorrow night is 30 minutes earlier than normal at 6.15pm. The Moonee Valley Friday night meetings normally start at 6.45pm, but the MVRC has taken the step to start at 6.15 on Group 1 nights. With the Group 1 $450,000 Moir Stakes (1200m) scheduled as the last of eight races at 10.00pm, the club has programmed a 45-minute gap between races seven and eight.

Suggested bet: Lismore R4 #2 Mini Delago E/W 1x2 (two units) 2nd ($2.10)

Other tips

Seymour R3 #4 Pilly’s Wish (E/W 1x4) 1st ($2.30/$1.50)

Seymour R6 #4 Stradale (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Seymour R8 #6 Livery (win) LOSE (2nd)

Seymour R9 #3 Sadaqa (win) 1st ($3.40)

Hawkesbury R3 #6 Blatant (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Hawkesbury R4 #2 Kudero (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.60)

Hawkesbury R5 #2 Worldly Impact (win) 1st ($1.70)

Hawkesbury R7 #2 Mountain View (E/W 1x3) 1st ($2.70/$1.60)

Rockhampton R2 #1 Red Story (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Lismore R2 #3 Sweets (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($1.60)

Lismore R6 #6 Bianco Boy (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Port Lincoln R3 #3 Heza Hussler (win) LOSE (2nd)

Port Lincoln R7 #10 Bee In Her Bonnet (E/W) 2nd ($5.90)

Harness racing tip: Terang R4 #3 Jazz King (win) 1st ($1.80)
Greyhound racing tip: Sandown Park R9 #4 Banjo Boy (win) 1st ($1.90)

Feature: How does Albanese look in salmon and black?

The concept of value is one of the pillars of betting. Placing a bet because it offers good value does not necessarily mean you believe the team you’re wagering on is going to win, especially when you're betting on an underdog at the money line. When it comes to racing, a horse that should be a legitimate $4 shot goes off at a price of $6, you have an overlay, which should be a profitable situation over time. In many of her races, champion mare Black Caviar jumped at short prices in the $1.15-$1.20 range. However, in quite a few of those races, she actually represented decent value as her rated price was often less than $1.10. In contrast, punters who took the $1.70 on Atlantic Jewel in the Underwood Stakes at Caulfield last Saturday were getting terrible value, as her true price was close to $3.00. Meanwhile, winner It's A Dundeel (rated $5.50, paid $8) was excellent value.

The reason for this reminder of the concept of value relates to the current Federal Labor Leadership battle between Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese (pictured). In contrast to past leadership battles in which only Labor MPs participated, the new leader will be announced on October 13 after a ballot of the party's 40,000 members is combined with the vote of MPs. With the right reportedly locking-in behind Shorten, pundits are tipping that he will secure a comfortable caucus majority, meaning Albanese will need more than 60 per cent of the members' vote to prevail. I’ve combined another pillar of betting (source the best and most accurate forms of information) revealing that Albanese will comfortably win the approval of the members. In racing terms, if the contest was run 10 times, Albanese would win them all. Of course, politicians are known to slip up on the odd occasion but the price of $1.36 is still excellent value. Only problem will be finding a book that will take your bets!

Suggested bet: Next Labor leader – Anthony Albanese ($1.36)

Football (Capital One Cup) for September 26

Third round: Manchester United v Liverpool, Old Trafford, Manchester, UK, Thursday, September 26, 4.45am

Manchester United will be looking to shed their disappointment from the weekend where they put in a horrendous performance against Manchester City, which led to a 4-1 humiliation at the Etihad. This game against Liverpool will be a major test for David Moyes who has to get the crowd back on his side after the embarrassment against City and prove that he is still the right man to take the club forward. For United, recovering from their brutal loss to City is paramount. Keep an eye on Wayne Rooney (pictured, with Moyes), who has been superb this season, with four goals and three assists in five appearances across all competitions. Shinji Kagawa, ignored by his manager but not forgotten by supporters and pundits alike, could also get a run.

Liverpool will be bolstered by the return of Luis Suarez who has served his 10-game ban and will be available for selection against United. Brendan Rodgers will be relieved by his return, with Philippe Coutinho having to undergo shoulder surgery, which will rule him out until the end of October. The Reds have been in prime form this season, having won three of their first five games and are currently in fourth position, having led the table up until last weekend. Daniel Sturridge has been excellent for Liverpool, with six goals in six appearances across all competitions, so Liverpool boss Brendan Rodgers may opt to stick with him or pair the two forwards. I love Manchester United in this spot and expect them to grind out victory over the Reds.

 

Suggested bet: Manchester United WIN (2.5 units @ $2.36) WIN (1-0)

Other tips

Newcastle Utd WIN $1.74 v Leeds Utd WIN (2-0)

Tranmere Rovers v Stoke City -2.5 $1.68 WIN (0-2)

West Bromwich Albion DNB $2.15 v Arsenal WIN (1-1)

MLB for September 26

NL: Washington Nationals (84-74, 37-40 away) @ St Louis Cardinals (93-65, 50-27 home), Busch Stadium, St Louis, MS, Thursday, September 26, 4.15am

It’s tricky start to the day, with sides already qualified for the playoffs scheduled in each of the four early games. Obviously, it's common practice for teams that have clinched a spot in the postseason to rest players for their playoff run. Four ball clubs have clinched division crowns (Red Sox, A's, Braves, Dodgers) and could have their foot off the pedal down the stretch and coast into the playoffs with healthy line-ups and rested rotations. The St. Louis Cardinals have clinched a wild card spot at the least, but will definitely look to cement that NL Central crown down the stretch with this clash against the Washington Nationals crucial.

Rookie Shelby Miller (pictured) will try to follow a superb performance from Michael Wacha and help the Cardinals take another step toward a division title. Wacha came within an out of throwing a no-hitter yesterday, allowing an infield single to Ryan Zimmerman before exiting the 2-0 victory. Mike Matheny’s team is chasing its first division crown since 2009, sitting two games ahead of Pittsburgh and three in front of Cincinnati with four to play. All three teams have clinched at least a wild-card spot, while St Louis’ magic number in the division race is three. In an effort to reduce that number further, the Cardinals (93-65) will start another impressive rookie in Miller (14-9, 3.12 ERA).

The right-hander is 2-0 with a 3.09 ERA in his last four starts. He’s been even better in his last three at home, winning each while posting 0.96 ERA. With wins in the first five meetings against Washington this year, St Louis is on the brink of sweeping a season series of at least six games for the first time since going 7-0 against the Dodgers in 2006. Cardinals’ pitchers have limited the Nationals to seven runs and 24 hits in those five games, walking eight and striking out 42. Another win in the season series won’t be easy with Jordan Zimmermann (19-8, 3.18) on the mound. The right-hander is bidding to join Gio Gonzalez (2012) and Ross Grimsley (1978) as the only 20-game winners in franchise history. 

Reaching that milestone would mean beating the Cardinals for the first time. He’s 0-3 with a 9.40 ERA in six starts against them, including two in last year’s division series, which Washington lost in five. Zimmermann has been superb of late, winning all four starts this month behind a 2.25 ERA. He turned in his best performance of that stretch on Saturday, tossing a two-hitter with nine strikeouts in an 8-0 victory over Miami. He has personal highs in wins, innings (206 1-3) and strikeouts (159), while his 1.10 WHIP is his lowest.

Suggested bets: Game total -7.5 (3.5 units @ $1.77) WIN, St Louis WIN (1.5 units @ $1.77) WIN (1-4)

Other tips (early games)

AL: Athletics* @ Angels WIN $1.79 WIN (1-3)
NL: Mets @ Reds* WIN $1.74 LOSE (1-0)
NL: Pirates* WIN $1.59 LOSE @ Cubs -6.5 $1.85 WIN (2-4)

Other tips (late games) 

IL: Red Sox* @ Rockies -10 $1.92 LOSE (15-5)
AL: Rays** WIN $1.60 @ Yankees WIN (8-3)
AL: Blue Jays WIN $2.46 @ Orioles LOSE (5-9)
AL: White Sox @ Indians** WIN $1.38 WIN (2-7)
AL: Astros @ Rangers** +9 $2.05 WIN (3-7)
AL: Tigers* @ Twins +1.5 $2.25 WIN (1-0)
AL: Royals** WIN $2.03 LOSE @ Mariners -6.5 $1.85 WIN (0-6) 
NL: Brewers WIN $2.17 @ Braves* WIN (4-0)
NL: Phillies WIN $1.64 @ Marlins LOSE (2-3)
NL: D'backs @ Padres WIN $2.03 WIN (2-12)
NL: Dodgers* @ Giants +1.5 $1.80 WIN +7.5 $2.11 WIN (4-6)


* = playoff spot, ** = wild card contender

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