Daily tips for September 13

NRL (week 1 finals) for September 13

Qualifying Final – South Sydney Rabbitohs (18-6) v Melbourne Storm (16-1-7), ANZ Stadium, Friday, September 13, 7.45pm

This clash looms as a real test of the Rabbitohs’ premiership credentials. Despite sitting top of the Telstra Premiership ladder for much of 2013, Souths would have preferred to avoid a Week 1 game against Melbourne given that they have won just three of 19 games against them and lost both previous encounters this season. In Round 6, a thriller at this same venue saw the Storm eke out a 17-10 win while the return game in Melbourne in Round 22 saw them roll to a comfortable 26-8 win. Having lost the chance to claim the minor premiership with their defeat at the hands of the Roosters last week, consecutive losses could prove a crippling blow for Michael Maguire’s men as they look to go one better than last year’s preliminary final exit.  However, Souths have also shown time and time again just how lethal they can be. They boast the biggest forward pack in the NRL with the four Burgess brothers recently linking in first grade for the first time; hooker Issac Luke provides a constant threat with his dummy-half running and direct style of play; and fullback Greg Inglis (pictured) remains the X-factor that all other sides fear.

Notably, while they haven’t been at their absolute best over the past month, neither have the Storm who crashed to a big loss away to Manly in Round 25 and barely scraped through against the Gold Coast in golden point last week. Although they were stripped of their 2007 and 2009 premierships, the experience of those games remains and of course they did it all again last year on their way to a legitimate title. As always, their big three of Cameron Smith, Billy Slater and Cooper Cronk are key and again their big game experience is significant with 64 State of Origins and 67 Tests between them. But the challenge is different in 2013. Last year they stormed into the finals on the back of five consecutive wins and kept that momentum going all the way to the grand final. They also had the luxury of a top-two finish and a home semi-final. Neither of those is the case this year. The big question is how the Rabbitohs handle the ‘big stage’ given they boast far less big-game experience than Melbourne do. But after last week’s loss to the Roosters, we can see them lifting enormously this week. (Preview thanks to Ben Blaschke, NRL.com)

Suggested bet: South Sydney +2.5 (four units @ $1.62) WIN (20-10)

AFL (week 2 finals) for September 13

Second Semi-Final: Geelong (18-4) v Port Adelaide (12-10), MCG, Friday, September 13, 7.50pm AEST – odds: Geelong $1.22, Port Adelaide $4.50; line 28.5; game total line 173.5

Port Adelaide will return to the MCG full of confidence after a stunning upset of Collingwood. Based on my ratings, the Power’s win was the greatest upset in finals history! However I’m not expecting them to progress further than this. Credit to the Power, but they defeated a side that was little more than a disorganised rabble and threatened to break the record for direct kicks to the opposition. Kudos to Ken Hinkley on what he’s achieved this year, taking a team bereft of any confidence and mourning the loss of a teammate and turning them into a hard-working and surprisingly skilled outfit. An added bonus is that they are unchanged from last week, and will have benefitted from the routine established in the lead-up for last week’s game.  The pain of that 119-point loss to the Cats in the 2007 Grand Final (the last time they met in September) may provide some incentive but Port have lost nine in a row to Geelong stretching back to that year.

The Cats were comprehensively torn apart by Freo but should find this easier. I’m expecting changes to the Cats’ ruck and forward set-ups while the loss of Corey Enright will be tough to overcome as Port, like the Dockers, can go tall or small on the forward line. Favourite whipping boy Tom Hawkins returns, which is a massive ‘in’. Regardless of his form, he’ll take a decent defender and will have plenty of incentive to prove his critics wrong. Josh Hunt and Taylor Hunt also return while Josh Caddy is out with an ankle injury. Geelong won both matches against Port this year with the Power struggling to find effective match-ups for Steve Johnson (pictured) and Joel Selwood (both of who played forward of centre and kicked crucial goals in those games). Kane Cornes can only do so much in a tagging role. The Port forwards simply won’t have the space they were afforded last week, and I expect the Cats to progress fairly comfortably here.

Suggested bets: Geelong -28.5 (1.5 units @ $1.91), game total -173.5 (2.5 units @ $1.90)

Racing for September 13

Horse racing: Geelong (Vic), Ballina (Vic), Ipswich (Qld), Canberra (ACT). Harness racing: Young (NSW), Gold Coast (Qld), Melton (Vic), Newcastle (NSW), Globe Derby (SA), Gloucester Park (WA). Greyhound racing: Casino (NSW), Mt Gambier (SA), Geelong (Vic)

The Gardens (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Wagga (NSW), Shepparton (Vic), Dapto (NSW), Mandurah (WA).

Melbournians awoke to a freezing 5C this morning, and I could think of nothing better than to be at the home of the Big Prawn (pictured) in the mid-20s sunshine for the running of today’s $50,000 Slipway Hotel Ballina Cup over 1600m. Local trainer John Hubbard has never had a Ballina Cup runner let alone a realistic chance in the feature NSW north coast event but that all changes when he saddles up #1 Muhaajir. Incredibly, the 5yo has been with Hubbard just a week after being purchased from Vinery Stud. A winner of five from 21, he enjoyed a solid campaign earlier this year culminating in a runner-up finish to Finiguerra at Moonee Valley on April 13. The bay gelding is third-up here and will need to be ridden for luck from barrier 13 by Anthony Patillo but has the class edge over this field. Most of the owners are regulars at the Slipway Hotel, so he’ll be assured good support today!

Suggested bet: Ballina R8 #1 Muhaajir E/W 1x2 (three units) 2nd $2.40

Other tips

Geelong R1 #3 Lion Of Belfort (win) 1st ($1.45)

Geelong R2 #8 Anatina (win) 1st ($1.60)

Geelong R5 #7 Biancrazy (E/W) 3rd ($2.10)

Ballina R3 #1 Alltherightmoves (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Ballina R4 #7 Mini Delago (E/W 1x3) 1st ($3.80/$1.60)

Ballina R6 #7 Lassila (E/W 1x2) 1st ($2.70/$1.60)

Ipswich R7 #2 I’m A Zulu (win) LOSE (4th)

Canberra R6 #9 Without A Shadow (win) 1st ($2.00)

Harness racing tip: Melton R5 #10 Broadway’s Best (win)

Greyhound racing tip: Geelong R12 #3 Internationalist (win)

MLB for September 13

NL: Washington Nationals (76-69, 36-38 away) @ New York Mets (64-80, 28-41 home), Citi Field, New York, NY, Friday, September 13, 3.10am

The Washington Nationals’ late charge at the second wild card has come at the expense of the lightweights of the NL East, and they hope to continue that run here by completing a four-game sweep of the New York Mets. Washington (76-69) has won a season high-tying five straight and 11 of 15 during a 19-game stretch against the three clubs below it in the division – sub-.500 teams New York, Philadelphia and Miami. After this game, the Nationals will play the Phillies and Marlins seven times as part of a 10-game homestand around a three-game set with eventual division champion Atlanta. The Nationals have momentum on their side. Dan Haren and four relievers combined on a three-hitter as Washington remained six games behind Cincinnati for the NL’s last wild-card slot with 17 to play. Tanner Roark (pictured above, 5-0, 0.94 ERA) will try to follow up a positive first major league start and help the Nationals potentially gain a half-game on the idle Reds. The rookie right-hander scattered four hits in a crisp 71-pitch effort over six scoreless innings in Sunday's 9-2 win at Miami to start Washington's current win streak.

One of Roark's other nine appearances came on August 31 against the Mets (64-80), who reached him for one run and three hits with three walks in 3 1/3 innings. He is trying to become the first rookie in franchise history to win his first six decisions since Kirk Rueter began 10-0 with the Expos in 1993-94. Center fielder Denard Span will try to extend the majors' longest active hitting streak to a career-high 23 games after getting a first-inning single Wednesday. He has never faced Aaron Harang, who will make his Mets debut. Harang went 5-11 with a 5.76 ERA in 22 starts this year with Seattle before being released on August 30. New York signed the veteran right-hander to a minor league deal the next day, giving him the opportunity to use the season's final weeks as an audition for teams needing a starter in 2014. Harang is 1/3 with a 3.92 ERA in eight starts versus the Expos-Nationals franchise, suffering a 3-1 loss in his most recent outing on September 19, 2012. Adam LaRoche is 7 for 31 with three homers and three doubles lifetime versus Harang.

Suggested bet: Nationals WIN (3.5 units @ $1.68) WIN (7-2)

Other tips (early games)

AL: Athletics -1.5 $1.95 @ Twins WIN (8-2)
NL: Braves WIN $1.71 WIN @ Marlins +7.5 $1.91 LOSE (6-1)

Late games

AL: Yankees WIN $2.44 WIN @ Orioles +9 $2.02 WIN (6-5)

AL: Angels WIN $1.86 @ Blue Jays WIN (4-3)

AL: Red Sox WIN $1.96 @ Rays LOSE (3-4)

AL: Indians WIN $1.81 @ White Sox WIN (14-3)

NL: Padres @ Phillies -8 $1.83 LOSE (5-10)

NL: Cubs @ Pirates WIN $1.58 WIN (1-3)

NL: Brewers @ Cardinals +8 $2.06 PUSH (5-3)

NL: Giants @ Dodgers WIN $1.59 WIN -6.5 $2.02 WIN (2-3)

NFL (week 2) for September 12-13

New York Jets (1-0, 0-0 away) @ New England Patriots (1-0, 0-0 home), Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA, Friday, September 13, 10.30am

The New England Patriots and New York Jets are each coming off last-second wins in their season openers, but the level of satisfaction on both sides was markedly different. The Jets scratched out a one-point victory over Tampa Bay in QB Geno Smith’s NFL debut and will look to carry that momentum into their showdown with the host Patriots on Thursday night. New England blew a 10-point lead and needed a late comeback from Tom Brady to overcome upset-minded Buffalo. Smith (pictured above) was far from perfect in his debut but he became the first rookie quarterback drafted in the second round or later since the 1970 merger to throw for at least 250 yards and win a season opener. Smith finished 24-for-38 for 256 yards with a fumble and interception, but he got the team in position for the decisive field goal in the final 34 seconds. New York’s defense (the calling card of coach Rex Ryan during his tenure) limited the Buccaneers to 250 yards of offence.

The Patriots have won the last four meetings, including a 49-19 thumping of the Jets on Thanksgiving night last year – a game remembered for the infamous “butt fumble” by New York quarterback Mark Sanchez, who is seeking a second opinion on his injured right shoulder from renowned orthopedist Dr. James Andrews. Brady and New England's overhauled receiving corps struggled in the opener and the team could be further depleted by injury for this match-up. Running back Shane Vereen will require surgery for a broken wrist and will be out a few weeks. Vereen was the only running back in the NFL to surpass 100 yards in week one and added seven catches for 58 yards. Wideout Danny Amendola was Brady’s favourite target with 10 catches for 104 yards, but he aggravated a groin injury during the win. In addition, rookie tight end Zach Sudfeld, the team's training camp sensation, is not expected to play due to a pulled hamstring.

Suggested bet: NY Jets +12 (2.5 units @ $1.91) WIN, game total -43 (1.5 units @ $1.91) WIN (10-13)

NCAAF (week 3) for September 12-13

Sun Belt: Troy Trojans (2-0) @ Arkansas State Red Wolves (1-1), Liberty Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, AR, Friday, September 13, 9.30am

A pair of contenders for the Sun Belt Conference crown will square off here when the Troy Trojans run into the Arkansas State Red Wolves. Troy has been able to enjoy home-field advantage in each of its first two games and has used that edge to post victories in each contest. The first victory came on a 30-yard field goal in overtime from Will Scott that lifted the Trojans to a 34-31 win over UAB. The second came much easier as the Trojans rolled to a 66-7 victory over FCS foe Savannah State. The Trojans have not gone 2-0 to start a season since 2008. On the other side, the Red Wolves went up against their head coach from last season, but lost to Gus Malzahn in his new home at Auburn, 38-9. The loss evens the Red Wolves’ record at 1-1 after they stomped FCS foe Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 62-11, in the season’s opening weekend. Through the first two games of the season Troy is ranked second in the conference in total offence (514.0 ypg).

Corey Robinson (pictured above) has been stellar leading the offence and has thrown for 499 yards and five touchdowns already this season and has yet to be intercepted. Robinson completed a stunning 17-of-19 pass attempts for four touchdowns against the second-tier Tigers though he split time with back-up Dallas Tidwell once the game got out of hand. Arkansas State is the only team ranked above Troy in total offence in the Conference (547 ypg). Even though the Red Wolves scored just nine points against Auburn, they still managed to record 422 yards of total offence. Unlike Troy, the Red Wolves’ game plan is based on the run as they lead the Sun Belt in rushing yards (659) by a wide margin. David Oku has been the primary ball carrier with 32 totes for 172 yards and two scores. Adam Kennedy is also a threat to run the ball out of the quarterback position. Kennedy scampered for a team-high 74 yards against Auburn, while throwing for 272 yards on 29-of-41 passing.

Suggested bet: Troy +8 (2.5 units @ $1.91) WIN, game total -66.5 (1.5 units @ $1.91) LOSE (34-41)

Other tips

TCU @ Texas Tech +3 WIN (10-20)

Tulane +7.5 @ Louisiana Tech WIN (24-15)

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