Daily tips for September 21

AFL (week 3 finals) for September 21

Second Preliminary Final: Fremantle v Sydney (15-1-6); Patersons Stadium, Saturday, September 21, 7.45pm AEST

This is the biggest game in the 18-year history of the Fremantle Football Club. Just once before have the Dockers made it to the third week of the finals (2006) where they were beaten by their opponents here, reigning premiers Sydney. Like Hawthorn, Freo’s preparation for this couldn’t be faulted. Their famous qualifying final victory over the Cats at Simonds Stadium was one of the side’s finest wins ever. After a nervous start, Ross Lyon was quick to react with his move of Ryan Crowley (pictured) onto Steve Johnson pivotal in the momentum swing. Lyon has painstakingly managed his playing resources all season to ensure one of his best sides of the year will take to the field here (with Michael Johnson and Nick Suban likely starters). The lessons learned in Lyon’s time at St Kilda will serve the Dockers well here. In seven years of coaching, Lyon has missed the finals only once. Freo can also take plenty of confidence from their stunning comeback at the SCG in round 8. With no Matthew Pavlich, Aaron Sandilands or Michael Walters, the Dockers erased a 27-point deficit in just 10 minutes to snatch an unlikely draw. But like Friday night’s game, beware the underdog.

Despite the absence of Adam Goodes, Tom Mitchell, Alex Johnson, Sam Reid, Rhyce Shaw and Tommy Walsh (and with Kurt Tippett and Tom Mitchell benched before half-time), Sydney dug deep to defeat Carlton at ANZ Stadium last week. Ben McGlynn and Gary Rohan return here, but they’re also nowhere near 100 per cent fitness. Despite his lack of cattle, John Longmire will be quietly confident of success here. The Swans match-up well and are one of the few sides that can match Freo’s ruck stocks. I’d argue that Sydney’s attack is more unpredictable without Tippett, who creates an obvious target, while Mike Pyke has emerged as one of the best pinch-hitting goalkickers in the League this year. The Swans’ midfield game is well suited to the wide open spaces of Subiaco where they’ve won their past and six of their past eight. And unlike Freo’s qualifying clash, all the pressure will be on the home side here. However, the obstacles just look too insurmountable for the Bloods. Freo has turned Patersons Stadium into a fortress, losing just once at home in 17 outings and conceding 12 goals on just three occasions during that run. Freo to win, but I like the line here too.

Suggested bets: Sydney +21.5 (1.5 units @ $1.91) LOSE, game total +155.5 (2.5 units @ $1.91) WIN (99-74)

Racing for September 21

Horse racing: Caulfield (Vic), Randwick (NSW), Eagle Farm (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Kalgoorlie (WA), Pakenham (Vic), Kembla Grange (NSW), Gold Coast (Qld), Wagga (NSW), Darwin (NT), Sunshine Coast (Qld). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Bunbury (WA), Cranbourne (Vic), Globe Derby (SA), Menangle (NSW), Newcastle (NSW). Greyhound racing: Wentworth Park (NSW), The Gardens (NSW), Cannington (WA), Richmond (NSW), The Meadows (Vic), Traralgon (Vic).

Today’s highlights (Caulfield)

R5 G3 $150,000 Sportingbet Sprint Series Heat 2 Stakes (1200m)

R7 G3 $175,000 Schweppes Thousand Guineas Prelude (1400m) 

R8 G3 $150,000 D'Urban Naturalism Stakes (2000m) 

R9 G1 $400,000 Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes (1800m)

Today’s highlights (Randwick)

R5 G1 $350,000 George Main Stakes (1600m)

R6 G3 $125,000 Bill Ritchie Handicap (1400m)

R7 G2 $200,000 Bacardi Hill Stakes (2000m)

R8 G2 $200,000 Bowermans Office Furniture Shorts (1100m)

Even if you have only have a passing interest in the sport of kings, I recommend you find a TV at 4.55pm for the running of the Underwood Stakes at Caulfield. The field is littered with proven champions of the turf and, as the Timeform ratings show, finding a winner isn’t as easy as plonking a stack on the unbeaten mare Atlantic Jewel. The five-year-average winning Timeform rating for the Underwood Stakes is 126, the race previously won by the likes of high-rating performers So You Think (Timeform rated 130) and Weekend Hussler (130). Here’s how the top contenders shape up against each other:

• Atlantic Jewel will be seeking a 10th career-victory and her fourth Group 1 win. Prior to making what seems to be a complete recovery from injury that sidelined her for almost 18 months, Atlantic Jewel had reaffirmed her 128 Timeform rating in the G1 2012 All Aged Stakes at Randwick in April 2012. So far this campaign, Atlantic Jewel has taken out the Group 2 Memsie Stakes (running to a rating of 125+), then last Saturday she had little more than an exercise gallop, running to 120+, winning a sub-standard Group 2 Stocks Stakes over 1600m at Moonee Valley, but with sharp closing sectionals. She faces a much stiffer assignment here – arguably the best field she has contested in her nine-start career. But if she can repeat her Memsie Stakes 125 rating, it will take a 129 performance by a male rival to lower her colours as she receives the four-pound mare's allowance under the scale.

• There have not been many higher-rated gallopers bought to race in Australia than Sea Moon (pictured), which boasts a Timeform rating of 127 courtesy of his demolition job on the 2012 G2 Hardwicke Stakes field at Royal Ascot over 2400m, which included Melbourne Cup and Caulfield Cup winner Dunaden, and Melbourne Cup place-getters Red Cadeaux, Jakkalberry and Fiorente. Now with the powerful Lloyd Williams stable, Sea Moon's much-awaited local debut went wrong in the Makybe Diva Stakes when he sprawled at the start. Clearly Sea Moon will be better suited by longer distances, but Saturday's race under weight-for-age conditions leaves him well placed to race well.

• A superior run can be expected here from the talented It's a Dundeel racing second-up from a spell. The Derby winner was not suited fresh-up in the G2 Memsie Stakes over 1400m behind Atlantic Jewel at Caulfield when beaten just on three lengths. However, his record second-up is impressive, winning his only two attempts in that state, last campaign easily defeating Proisir in the G1 Randwick Guineas over 1600m at Warwick Farm. It's A Dundeel comes into the race with a Timeform rating of 125p earned from easy wins in the G1 Rosehill Guineas and G1 ATC Derby. While he may be a run off getting back to that level, It's A Dundeel should make his presence felt.

• The same can be said of current Melbourne Cup favourite Puissance De Lune, which also faces his toughest test to date. While better suited under handicap conditions, Puissance De Lune was just touched off by Foreteller last time out in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes over 1600m at Flemington under WFA conditions, and he will be even better suited by the step up to 1800m. With a Timeform rating of 123, Puissance De Lune will need to find a few pounds to beat this field. Regular rider Glen Boss was criticised for making his run too early in the Makybe Diva, so he is unlikely to produce him until late in the race.

• Makybe Diva Stakes winner Foreteller, Timeform-rated 123, is a Caulfield specialist, winning twice previously at the heath. He will be third up on Saturday and should have taken further improvement from his last start success. Foreteller is one for the multiples, however, he faces a hoodoo for Makybe Diva winners – just four previous winners of that race in the past 27 years have won again during the remainder of their spring campaigns.

Suggested bet: Caulfield R9 #11 It’s A Dundeel E/W 1x4 (two units) 1st ($7.20/$2.10)

Other tips

Caulfield R3 #7 Impulsive Spirit (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Caulfield R4 #10 Le Mans (E/W) 3rd ($2.10)
Caulfield R6 #15 Rhythm To Spare (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Caulfield R7 #8 Marianne (E/W) 2nd ($2.20)
Caulfield R8 #5 Mr O’Ceirin (E/W) 1st ($7.50/$2.70)
Randwick R1 #2 Gangster’s Choice (E/W) LOSE (4th)
Randwick R2 #3 Arabian Gold (win) LOSE (2nd)
Randwick R3 #6 Diamond Oasis (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.50)
Randwick R4 #2 Field Marshall (win) LOSE (U/P)
Randwick R6 #9 Boban (win) 1st ($2.90)

Randwick R8 #11 Sessions (win) 1st ($3.00)

Eagle Farm R1 #1 Flying Home (win) 1st ($2.10)

Eagle Farm R4 #3 Dolly Dolly (E/W) 1st ($9.50/$2.70)

Eagle Farm R7 #9 Queen of the Lochs (E/W 1x3) 

Morphettville R1 #3 Last Day (win) LOSE (3rd)

Morphettville R2 #5 Stella Lante (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.50)

Morphettville R7 #3 Swipeline (E/W 1x2) 1st ($3.10/$1.70)

Morphettville R8 #4 Avoid Lightning (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Kembla Grange R4 #2 Hey Hey Renee (win) 1st ($3.50)

Kembla Grange R5 #3 High Grace (win) 1st ($2.30)

Kembla Grange R6 #2 Free To Rein (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($2.00)

MLB for September 21

AL: Baltimore Orioles (81-71, 39-38 away) @ Tampa Bay Rays (83-69, 47-30 home), Tropicana Field, St Petersburg, FL, Saturday, September 21, 9.10am

The Tampa Bay Rays will try to protect their razor-thin lead in the AL wild-card race by continuing their success against a fellow contender. David Price will seek to provide another solid outing against the Baltimore Orioles while leading the Rays to their eighth win in the last 10 match-ups. After passing Texas for the top wild-card spot, Tampa Bay (83-69) dropped back into a tie for the two playoff berths after an 8-2 loss to the Rangers yesterday. Four teams (including Baltimore) remain within 3 1/2 games of the co-leaders, with Cleveland another half-game back. Price helped Tampa Bay win two of three in the latest match-up on August 19-21 by earning a 4-3 victory in the series opener. Price (8-8, 3.42 ERA) gave up two runs despite allowing 10 hits over five innings in that game and is 3-0 with a 2.15 ERA in last seven starts against Baltimore. The left-hander is also 1-0 with a 0.84 ERA in three home matchups with the Orioles but 0-3 with a 4.13 ERA in his last four starts. Price, though, has yielded two runs in each of his last two outings.

He’ll face an Orioles team that had won three straight – including two games against AL East-leading Boston – before getting no-hit in the first six innings of a 3-1 loss Thursday. Jason Hammel (7-8, 5.12, pictured) will try to lead Baltimore to a victory while snapping a six-game losing streak. The right-hander has made only three starts since the All-Star break and had his first since coming back from the disabled list last Friday in Toronto. Hammel, who had been dealing with an ailing forearm, gave up three runs and three hits over five innings against the Blue Jays but did not get a decision as Baltimore rallied for a 5-3 win. His teammates have given him one run over his last three starts. Hammel is 0-2 with a 7.15 ERA in last two starts against the Rays but gave up two runs over 6 2/3 innings in a 2-1 loss at Tropicana Field on June 7. Ben Zobrist is 5 for 7 with a home run and a double against Hammel this season but is hitting just .167 (6 for 36) in his last nine games. Danny Valencia is 9 for 12 with two doubles lifetime against Price and Matt Wieters is 5 for 8 with three doubles and a home run in their match-ups this season.

Suggested bets: Tampa Bay WIN (3.5 units @ $1.54) WIN, game total -7.5 (1.5 units @ $1.79) LOSE (4-5)

Other tips

IL: Giants @ Yankees -8.5 $2.00 WIN (1-5)
AL: Astros @ Indians** WIN $1.50 -8 $2.05 WIN (1-2)
AL: White Sox @ Tigers -1.5 $1.74 WIN -8 $2.03 LOSE (5-12)
AL: Blue Jays @ Red Sox* WIN $1.48 WIN +8.5 $1.95 WIN (3-6)
AL: Rangers** @ Royals** WIN $1.77 WIN (1-2)
AL: Mariners @ Angels +8.5 $1.99 LOSE (2-3)
AL: Twins @ Athletics WIN $1.48 WIN (0-11)
NL: Braves @ Cubs +9 $1.89 WIN (9-5)
NL: Marlins @ Nationals** WIN $1.38 WIN (0-8)
NL: Mets @ Phillies WIN $1.50 LOSE -7.5 $1.87 LOSE (6-4)
NL: Reds** @ Pirates** WIN $1.93 LOSE -6.5 $2.05 LOSE (6-5)
NL: Cardinals WIN $1.55 @ Brewers WIN (7-6)
NL: D'backs @ Rockies +9.5 $2.10 WIN (4-9)
NL: Dodgers* WIN $2.18 LOSE @ Padres -7 $2.05 WIN (0-2)

* = playoff spot, ** = wild card contender

NCAAF (week 4) for September 21

MWC: Boise State Broncos (2-1) @ Fresno State Bulldogs (2-0), Bulldog Stadium, Fresno, CA, Saturday, September 21, 11am

Fresno State looks to snap a seven-game losing streak to Boise State when the teams meet at Bulldog Stadium here in a key Mountain West match-up. No. 25 Fresno State is ranked for the first time since 2008 and seeking its first 3-0 start since 2004. The Bulldogs had an unexpected bye last week when flooding forced the cancellation of their game at Colorado, while Boise State has bounced back from its season-opening loss at Washington with two straight wins, including a 42-20 victory over Air Force on Saturday. This game features two of the top quarterbacks on the West Coast in Fresno State’s Derek Carr (pictured) and the Broncos’ Joe Southwick, who set a school accuracy record last week by completing 27-of-29 passes for 287 yards.

Carr has been as good as advertised, especially at home, where he’s thrown 31 touchdown passes against four interceptions in his last eight games. Sophomore wide receiver Davante Adams has made a TD reception in 10 straight games and senior wideout Isaiah Burse has 338 all-purpose yards in the first two games, but the Bulldogs have struggled to establish a running game. Fresno State has caused a turnover in 16 straight games, but they enter this game ranked 111th in the FBS in total defence. Boise State dominated the series from 2006-11, winning by an average score of 50-16 before holding on for a 20-10 victory at home last season.

This contest figures to be a shootout, with Fresno State ranked 11th in the FBS in scoring offense at 46.5 points per game and Boise State averaging 37. The Broncos’ offensive line did not allow a sack in two of their first three games, and sophomore Jay Ajayi rushed for a career-high 125 yards and four touchdowns against Air Force. At 6-3 and 222 pounds, junior wide receiver Matt Miller could be in for a big game against a Fresno State secondary that has struggled against physical receivers. The Broncos limited Air Force to 99 passing yards last week, and cornerback Bryan Douglas will need to continue his strong play against the explosive Fresno State aerial attack.

Suggested bet: Fresno State WIN (3.5 units @ $1.55) WIN, game total +68 (1.5 units @ $1.91) WIN (40-41)

CFL (week 13) for September 21

Edmonton Eskimos (2-9) @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2-9), Investors Group Field, Winnipeg, MB, Saturday, September 21, 10.10am

The Edmonton Eskimos finally broke their eight-game losing streak by beating the Winnipeg Blue Bombers last week. The Eskimos will now try for consecutive victories over the Blue Bombers when they head back to Winnipeg. Edmonton quarterback Mike Reilly (pictured, with thanks to The Canadian Press) threw three touchdowns and ran for 113 yards in the win – enough to earn him offensive player of the week honors and take the team rushing lead with 530 yards. Reilly connected twice for touchdowns with slotback Fred Stamps, who leads the league in receiving yards with 821 and has already tied his career-high in touchdowns with nine. Linebacker J.C. Sherritt returned last week after undergoing surgery to repair his left hand but left the game in the fourth quarter. Sherritt finished with two tackles and recovered a fumble in the first quarter.

Winnipeg managed three sacks last week and are tied for the league lead with 41. Starting quarterback Justin Goltz was pulled for the second half last week and replaced by Max Hall (starting here), who fared slightly better but could not orchestrate a touchdown drive in the 25-7 loss. The Blue Bombers won their last home game, but unless they can slow down Reilly and establish their own offensive game – worst in the league with 224 points – even struggling opponents such as Edmonton might be too much to handle. Winnipeg traded veteran quarterback Buck Pierce to BC, leaving Goltz and Hall as its two main options under centre. Slotback Terrence Edwards leads the team with 405 receiving yards, but only he and slotback Clarence Denmark (368) have more than 300 yards in the air. The Blue Bombers’ defensive line has accounted for 30 of the team’s 41 sacks and defensive end Alex Hall is tied for the league lead with 12.

Suggested bet: Edmonton WIN (3.5 units @ $1.71) WIN, game total -50 (1.5 units @ $1.91) LOSE (35-27)

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