Daily tips for September 5

Racing for September 5

Horse racing: Seymour (Vic), Wyong (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Northam (WA). Harness racing: Penrith (NSW), Gold Coast (Qld), Shepparton (Vic). Greyhound racing: Dubbo (NSW), Shepparton (Vic), Warragul (Vic), Maitland (Vic), Albion Park (Qld), Warrnambool (Vic), Sandown Park (Vic), Angle Park (SA), Dapto (NSW), Hobart (Tas), Mandurah (WA).

Australian Cup winner Super Cool (pictured) has kept his place at the head of betting for the $2.5 million Caulfield Cup after the release of weights yesterday. The Mark Kavanagh-trained four-year-old has 55kg for the Caulfield Cup (2400m) with Melbourne Cup winner Green Moon topweight on 58kg. Super Cool moved to favouritism after his first-up third in the Memsie Stakes and remains a $9 favourite.

Only four horses have won the Caulfield Cup with more than 54.5kg in the past 20 years and Racing Victoria's chief handicapper Greg Carpenter admitted Super Cool faces a challenge. “The last three-year-old to win the Australian Cup was Saintly (in 1996) and he was allocated 55.5 kilos in the Caulfield Cup. He didn't run in the Caulfield Cup but went on to win the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup,” Carpenter said.

Green Moon would have to emulate last year's winner Dunaden. Dunaden won the 2011 Melbourne Cup before returning to win last year's Caulfield Cup with 58kg. Dunaden is the only original topweight to win the Caulfield Cup. The race has to have a minimum topweight of 58kg so if Green Moon doesn't run weights will be raised at least 1kg with Sea Moon and Red Cadeaux next in the handicaps at 57kg.

Multiple Group One winner Manighar has 56.5kg, Melbourne Cup runner-up Fiorente has 55.5kg along with veteran Metal Bender, while international galloper Dandino has 55kg. Dandino is on the third line of betting at $15 along with Fiorente while Jet Away, who has 53.5kg, holds the second line at $11.

ATC Australian Oaks winner Royal Descent is the highest-weighted four-year-old mare with 52.5kg while her Chris Waller-trained Queensland Derby-winning stablemate Hawkspur is the second-highest weighted four-year-old behind Super Cool with 53kg. The Caulfield Cup, which has a capacity field of 18, is on October 19.

Today’s tips

Seymour R3 #9 Coronation Shallan (E/W 1x3) 1st ($3.00/$1.50)

Seymour R6 #10 Gravitational (win) 1st ($2.60)

Seymour R7 #3 Magnature (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.40)

Seymour R10 #6 Politeness (win) 1st ($1.90)

Wyong R1 #8 The Artist (E/W 1x2) 1st ($3.70/$1.80)

Wyong R2 #1 Albert’s Symphony (E/W 1x3) 1st ($3.50/$1.60)

Wyong R7 #2 Footy Fan (win) 1st ($2.60)

Ipswich R2 #5 Miss Sunset (win) 1st ($1.60)

Ipswich R3 #1 Count Apollo (win) 1st ($2.20)

Ipswich R6 #1 Relapse (win) 1st ($2.80)

Northam R3 #3 Hollywoodland (win) 1st ($2.30)

Northam R7 #6 He’s Henry (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($1.90)

MLB for September 5

Texas Rangers (80-58, 41-29 away) @ Oakland Athletics (79-59, 43-26 home), O.co Coliseum, Oakland, CA, Thursday, September 5, 5.35am

The Texas Rangers aren’t ready to relinquish control of the AL West just yet, and Yu Darvish wants to regain some himself. Darvish tries to avoid losing a fifth consecutive start to the A's and help the Rangers add to their slim lead as these division rivals conclude a three-game set here. After dropping Tuesday’s opener to fall into a first-place tie in the West, Texas (80-58) regained its lead with yesterday’s 5-1 victory. The Rangers give the ball to Darvish (12-6, 2.73 ERA) who has posted a 5.18 ERA in dropping his last four to Oakland (79-59) and is winless in his last three starts overall while walking nine. The hard-throwing right-hander (who leads the majors with 236 strikeouts) carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning there before surrendering back-to-back homers that accounted for all the runs in a 3-2 loss.

While Darvish has struggled versus the A’s, counterpart Jarrod Parker (10-6, 3.59) has shined, going 5-1 with a 2.93 ERA in six career starts against Texas. Parker’s lone defeat to the Rangers came 3-1 on May 22, but he hasn’t lost since. The right-hander has gone 8-0 with a 2.57 ERA in his last 17 starts, including a win over Darvish on June 18, and has yielded three runs or fewer in all but one of those outings. He gave up three runs and six hits in seven-plus innings but didn’t receive a decision in Friday’s 4-3 win over the Rays. Parker will need to be careful against Mitch Moreland, who has five homers and seven RBIs in eight games in Oakland this year. The Rangers have hit 21 home runs during their 16-game road surge. The A’s lead Tampa Bay by 2 1/2 games for the top AL wild-card spot.

Suggested bet: Game total -7 (3.5 units @ $1.91) LOSE, Oakland WIN (1.5 units @ $2.03) WIN (4-11)

Other tips

IL: Blue Jays WIN $2.00 @ D'backs LOSE (3-4)

AL: Twins @ Astros +8.5 $1.95 WIN (5-6)

AL: Tigers @ Red Sox +9.5 $2.02 WIN (4-20)
AL: Orioles WIN $2.07 LOSE @ Indians +8.5 $1.85 WIN (4-6)
AL: White Sox @ Yankees WIN $1.55 WIN (5-6)
AL: Mariners @ Royals WIN $1.60 LOSE (6-4)
AL: Rays WIN $2.18 WIN @ Angels -7.5 $1.93 WIN (3-1)

NL: Mets WIN $2.23 @ Braves WIN (5-2)
NL: Marlins @ Cubs +8 $2.02 WIN (7-9)
NL: Giants WIN $2.00 @ Padres WIN (13-5)
NL: Nationals WIN $1.68 WIN @ Phillies +8 $1.92 LOSE (3-2)
NL: Cardinals @ Reds WIN $1.86 LOSE (5-4)
NL: Pirates WIN $1.66 @ Brewers LOSE (3-9)
NL: Dodgers @ Rockies +10 $2.02 WIN (5-7)
 

Strategy: '3' is the magic number for NFL bettors

Back at the start of the NFL pre-season, I discussed the value of spreads like 1, 1.5, and 2 during August, as there’s no incentive to send the game into overtime. But that ends now, with the opening games of the regular season coming up. The one number oddsmakers hate to get off is 3. That tells you right there that three is the most important number. One of my best contacts in the sports betting field researched the past 17 years to see how frequently games were decided by three points. He discovered that 15 per cent of NFL games finished with a three-point difference. That’s twice as high as 7, the next key number. He found that seven per cent of NFL games end with one team winning by seven points. Other key numbers are 6 (occurs six per cent of the time), 10 (five per cent) and 4 (five per cent). These are the numbers to put heavy emphasis on.

Rarely will you find a football game, particularly in the NFL, end in victories of 1, 2, 5, 8, 12, 15 and 16 points. Extra point kicks have almost a 100 per cent success rate, unlike College Football. It’s important to anticipate if and when a game may move off a key number. A strong clue is higher juice tied to one side, especially early in the week. If the favourite opens at -3, there’s a possibility of the line moving to 3.5. So if you like the favorite, the time to bet is right away. If you like the underdog, it would be prudent to wait in the hopes a 3.5 will come up. Just like on sides, there are key betting numbers on over/unders. The two most important numbers in this area are 41 and 37. Successful totals players often make their own power rating and then look for a disparity of at least three points in the odds from their number.

If a 37 or 41 is involved, the disparity could be just one or two points. Other key totals numbers are 51, 38, 44 and 45. It can be much easier to middle or side a total rather than a points spread number because oddsmakers move totals faster. That’s because there is usually more “smart money” on totals. Last season, for example, the Browns-Colts Week 2 total, opened at 37. One punter told me he played over 37. But when the total moved up to 40 he bought back some of his action hoping to win both sides. It didn’t work that time because the Browns won 27-19, with the combined 46 points going above the total. Still, it’s extremely rare, if not impossible, to find a points spread side moving three points in the NFL when there are no key injuries or suspensions.

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