Daily tips for September 14

AFL (week 2 finals) for September 14

First Semi-Final: Sydney (15-1-6) v Carlton (11-11), ANZ Stadium, Saturday, September 14, 7.45pm AEST – odds: Sydney $1.35, Carlton $3.25; line 21.5; game total line 176.5

The Swans’ injury problems are so bad, there was serious consideration being given to the recall of Adam Goodes – he’s been out for 13 weeks and hadn’t had a full week on the track. Ben McGlynn, Jude Bolton and Jarrad McVeigh picked up injuries in last week’s defeat to Hawthorn, while Gary Rohan (omitted), Daniel Hannebery and Lewis Jetta are clearly below their best. I’d be staggered if there were not late changes to the Sydney side – Bolton’s cork looked particularly nasty. No Franklin and no Rioli proved no worries for the Hawks as they held Sydney to just seven goals for the game while booting 11 goals to three after half-time. There was clear frustration among the Sydney players in the second half, and I’m expecting that will be channeled positively by John Longmire (pictured) here. In a brutal game at the SCG in round 14, the Swans were at their resilient best as they weathered Carlton’s challenge and ran away with the game in the last quarter.

Momentum is key in the finals and the Blues have it. They’ve run over the top of Port Adelaide and Richmond in successive weeks and are playing their best footy of the season. Michael Jamison and Lachie Henderson stifled the Tiger forwards while Nick Duigan (a late call-up for Brock McLean) proved a perfect foil in attack, booting 4.0 from 10 kicks. Matthew Kreuzer makes way for Levi Casboult meaning the Blues still have the timber to match the Swans’ myriad tall options. Carlton has yet to win at ANZ Stadium, and has only played there on three occasions, most recently 2010, going down by five points in an elimination final. The Swans haven’t enjoyed their second home all that much in recent times either, losing their last two matches at the venue this season and relying on fixtures against GWS to bolster their overall record. But with two days’ extra rest, a proven record at this level and a 10-3 record against Carlton in their past 13 games, I like the Swans to bounce back. Late money is coming for the Blues, so I expect the line to fall by one, maybe two, more points.

Suggested bet: Sydney -21.5 (four units @ $1.91)

NRL (week 1 finals) for September 14

Qualifying Final – Sydney Roosters (18-6) v Manly Sea Eagles (15-1-8), Allianz Stadium, Saturday, September 14, 7pm

After two brutal and low-scoring encounters this year, expect one-versus-four to be as physical as any match this year. Roosters enforcer Jared Waerea-Hargreaves copped the year’s first send-off and a five-match suspension for a swinging arm on Manly’s George Rose back in round 9. Waerea-Hargreaves’ first game back was against the Sea Eagles in round 16. He wasn’t afraid to dish out the big hits in that one but probably the toughest collision of the night was between Manly’s James Hasson and Sydney’s Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, causing them both to sit out the second half with concussion. Waerea-Hargreaves won’t be back this weekend due to suspension but that was about the only bad piece of news on the night for the Roosters, who turned around back-to-back losses with a tough finals-style win over the Rabbitohs to secure the minor premiership. In further good news, Tuivasa-Sheck returns on the wing allowing Shaun Kenny-Dowall to shift in one place and spare Aiden Guerra from another stint in the centres.

For their part, Manly have been chugging along very nicely and will have all three sides above them looking nervously over their shoulders. Brett Stewart returns replacing Peta Hiku at fullback, and winger Jorge Taufua returns from his club-enforced suspension replacing last week’s debutant Clinton Gutherson. Anthony Watmough is back in the second row, pushing David Gower to the five-man bench, Brenton Lawrence is back at prop meaning George Rose goes back to the pine, and last week’s other debutant Jake Trbojevic exits the side. Manly lost just one of nine games prior to last week’s match and were particularly impressive against the Storm in Round 25. And throughout that run their backline has been simply scintillating, with Stewart, Taufua, Jamie Lyon, Steve Matai and Dave Williams racking up 41 tries in those 10 games (and that’s not including tries scored by stand-ins such as Hiku and Gutherson). In all, Manly’s backline has crossed for 85 tries this year – more than a whole eight clubs scored across their entire roster over 26 rounds!

Suggested bet: Manly +3.5 (three units @ $1.91)

Other tips

Cronulla v Nth Queensland +2.5 (two units @ $1.81) WIN (20-18)

Racing for September 14

Horse racing: Moonee Valley (Vic), Rosehill (NSW), Doomben (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Belmont (WA – abandoned), Kembla Grange (NSW), Gold Coast (Qld), Echuca (Vic), Armidale (NSW), Darwin (NT), Carnarvon (WA). Harness racing: Globe Derby (SA), Albion Park (Qld), Albury (NSW), Bendigo (Vic), Menangle (NSW). Greyhound racing: The Gardens (NSW), Cannington (WA), Richmond (NSW), The Meadows (NSW), Traralgon (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW). 

There’s Group racing either side of the border today, with the highlight being the $1 million Group 1 De Bortoli Wines Golden Rose at Rosehill topping the list of a huge day of black-type racing. Moonee Valley will also host a trio of Group 2 features, including the Stocks Stakes, the McEwen Stakes and the Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes. Racing Victoria’s obsession with dead (4) tracks continued after the Moonee Valley surface was watered during the week meaning an upgrade is unlikely. My concern with this practice is that it is virtually impossible to ensure that the track is watered evenly, leaving punters to learn the bias or quick alleys only after the first 2-3 races. 

Rant over – at least we’ll have had a good look at the track by race 5, where me best of the day is scheduled. #1 Moment of Change returns to action in the $175,000 Group 2 Mitty’s McEwen Stakes over 1000 metres. Two of the 5yo gelding’s five wins have come first-up and Peter Moody will have him ready for this. He ran the race of his life to finish runner-up to Black Caviar in the Lightning Stakes back in February before trailing only Shamexpress in the Newmarket. #8 Platelet looks the obvious danger but I’ll be expecting Luke Nolen to get the jump from a tricky barrier 1 and steer this bloke home.

Suggested bet: Moonee Valley R5 #1 Moment Of Change WIN (2.5 units @ $2.60) LOSE (2nd)

Moonee Valley R1 #11 Solicit (E/W 1x2) 1st ($3.40/$1.40)
Moonee Valley R2 #6 Benchi Pegasus (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Moonee Valley R6 #8 Super Cool (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Moonee Valley R8 #9 It Is Written (E/W) 3rd ($2.10)
Rosehill R1 #4 Hosting (E/W 1x3) 1st ($2.80/$1.50)
Rosehill R4 #1 Ecuador (win) 1st ($1.80)
Rosehill R5 #2 Solzenitsyn (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($2.00)
Rosehill R7 #2 Fast ‘n’ Rocking (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Rosehill R8 #10 I’m Imposing (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Doomben R3 #7 Treasure Map (E/W) 1st ($9.00/$2.70)
Doomben R7 #3 Venture On (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Morphettville R2 #3 Burnro (E/W) LOSE (4th) 

Morphettville R5 #7 Star Fashion (win) LOSE (2nd) 
Morphettville R6 #4 Ferrari Star (E/W 1x3) LOSE (U/P)

Morphettville R7 #10 Essay Raider (win) LOSE (2nd)

Harness racing tip: Menangle R3 #2 Beautide (win)
Greyhound racing tip: Wentworth Park R8 #8 Proven Impala (win)

NCAAF (week 3) for September 14

MWC: Air Force Falcons (1-1) @ Boise State Broncos (1-1), Bronco Stadium, Boise, ID, Saturday, September 14, 10am

Boise State's dalliance with the Top 25 may have been brief, but the Broncos showed last week that they're eager to return. Fresh off a 49-point drubbing of Tennessee-Martin, head coach Chris Petersen's club looks to continue its march toward a Mountain West Conference title as it entertains the Air Force Falcons in the only game of the day. Last weekend's win was critical in helping restore the confidence of a Broncos team that plummeted out of the rankings following a 38-6 loss to the Washington Huskies in the season opener – the program's worst defeat since 2005. Boise State had no such trouble against Tennessee-Martin, as quarterback Joe Southwick racked up 234 passing yards and five touchdowns but the defence still surrendered 362 total yards and has allowed an average of 210 rushing yards through the first two games – and Petersen blames tackling troubles. "You create space, you're going to miss tackles. We have to get more guys to the point of attack. One guy is not going to make the tackle in space."

Air Force had to do without starting quarterback Kale Pearson last time out, and it showed as the Falcons were thumped 52-20 by Utah State. Head coach Troy Calhoun has already made peace with the fact that Peterson, who suffered a knee in the season-opening 38-13 victory over Colgate, likely won't return against the Broncos. That should spell concern for a Falcons squad that struggled to fashion any sort of aerial attack against the Aggies last weekend. Calhoun was succinct when explaining his team's loss, which was punctuated by a stretch in which Utah State scored on four straight series to effectively put the game away. "I think we got thumped in every possible way in this game," Calhoun told the Air Force News Service. "In the first half, we had a chance to make some plays that we didn't make." The Falcons boast a potent running game that has averaged better than 285 yards per game (good for 18th in the nation) and should excel in the triple-option offense against a Boise State team that has struggled with run defence.

Suggested bet: Air Force +23.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN, game total +57.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (20-42)

MLB for September 14

AL: Baltimore Orioles (77-69, 35-36 away) @ Toronto Blue Jays (67-79, 35-37 home), Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada, Saturday, September 14, 9.10am

An untimely three-game losing streak has damaged the Baltimore Orioles’ post-season hopes. A 10-game road trip may just determine them. The Orioles open that seemingly rough stretch by trying to end a four-game losing streak at Rogers Centre when they face the last-place Toronto Blue Jays. Baltimore (77-69) won four of five after beating the New York Yankees 4-2 on Monday. However, they followed that by losing the next three games of that series, giving up the decisive run in the top of the ninth of Thursday’s 6-5 defeat. Instead of gaining ground in the wild-card race, the Orioles are tied with Kansas City 2 1/2 games back of Tampa Bay for the AL’s second spot. They also now have to overtake the Yankees and Cleveland in their final 16 games. Facing the Jays may keep first baseman Chris Davis (pictured) hot since he's a career .335 hitter against them, and his 18 homers and 45 RBIs in 55 games are his highest totals against any opponent. Davis owns a .387 average in 22 visits to Toronto, and is 15 for 35 (.429) with six homers and 14 RBIs during a 10-game overall hitting streak against the AL East rival. He's also homered in three straight meetings, collecting seven RBIs.

Production at the plate will likely be key since Baltimore is scheduled to give the ball to Jason Hammel (7-8, 5.11 ERA), who is replacing Bud Norris due to right elbow discomfort. Hammel hasn’t won since beating Washington on May 27, going 0-6 with a 5.43 ERA in 10 starts before landing on the disabled list with right forearm tenderness on July 31. The right-hander returned Sunday with two scoreless innings of relief in a 4-2 loss to the Chicago White Sox. He’s 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA while serving up seven homers over his last three starts against the Blue Jays, giving up six runs in six innings of a 7-3 home loss July 13 in the most recent one. The Blue Jays are coming off a three-game sweep at the hands of the Los Angeles Angels, dropping the finale 4-3 on Thursday. The rotation compiled a 10.54 ERA while allowing five homers in the series. Todd Redmond (3-2, 4.40) will try to stop Toronto's skid, and the 28-year-old rookie right-hander has won his last two starts while allowing five runs in 10 2/3 innings. That was an improvement after he surrendered a career-high eight runs in 3 1/3 innings of a 12-4 loss at Houston on August 23.

Suggested bet: Game total +9 (1.5 units @ $1.96) WIN, Baltimore WIN (2.5 units @ $1.86) WIN (5-3)

Other tips

IL: Mariners @ Cardinals WIN $1.54 WIN (1-2)

AL: Indians WIN $1.74 WIN @ White Sox -8 $2.00 WIN (3-1)

AL: Royals @ Tigers WIN $1.62 WIN +7.5 $2.00 WIN (3-6)

AL: Yankees @ Red Sox +9 $1.93 WIN (4-8)

AL: Athletics WIN $2.15 WIN @ Rangers +9 $2.00 WIN (9-8)

AL: Rays WIN $1.64 @ Twins WIN (3-0) 
AL: Angels @ Astros +9 $1.98 WIN (7-9)
NL: Phillies @ Nationals -1.5 $2.12 WIN (1-6)

NL: Cubs WIN $2.57 WIN @ Pirates -7.5 $1.80 LOSE (5-4)

NL: Marlins +1.5 $1.61 @ Mets WIN (3-4)

NL: Padres @ Braves WIN $1.74 LOSE (4-3)

NL: Reds WIN $1.66 LOSE @ Brewers -7.5 $1.95 WIN (1-5)

NL: Rockies WIN $2.25 WIN @ D'backs -9 $1.85 LOSE (7-5)

NL: Giants @ Dodgers WIN $1.56 LOSE -6 $1.79 PUSH (4-2)

CFL (week 12) for September 14

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (5-5) @ Calgary Stampeders (8-2), McMahon Stadium, Calgary, AB, Saturday, September 14, 11.10am

The Calgary Stampeders are playing their best football of the season, riding a three-game winning streak and tied for the West Division lead after winning back-to-back contests against the rival Edmonton Eskimos. The Stampeders will host the Hamilton Tiger-Cats here, where they are 4-0. Calgary third-string quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell has taken full advantage of the opportunity afforded him by injuries to Drew Tate and Kevin Glenn, completing 70-of-98 passes for 850 yards, with eight touchdowns and only one interception. Running back Jon Cornish was named Canadian player of the week for the third time in 2013 after recording 177 yards from scrimmage against the Eskimos. Cornish is second in the league with 940 rushing yards and should eclipse his career-high of 1457 if he stays healthy. Mitchell took over as Calgary’s starting QB for the second time this season after Glenn suffered a knee injury in the Labour Day Classic.

Quarterback Henry Burris (pictured) has the Tiger-Cats on a roll. Hamilton has won four of its last five games after splitting a home-and-home series with the BC Lions and Burris leads the league with 3181 passing yards (612 more than any other quarterback). Burris, named offensive player of the week after throwing four touchdown passes against the Lions, is 217 yards away from reaching 50,000 in his career and should have no problem reaching it with a healthy receiving corps that includes wide receivers Greg Ellingson, Bakari Grant and Andy Fantuz. Coach Kent Austin praised Hamilton’s defensive effort following its Week 11 victory over BC, when Lions quarterback Travis Lulay was sacked three times and faced pressure all game. Linebacker Brandon Isaac and defensive lineman Eric Norwood each recorded their first sacks in the contest, while defensive lineman Brandon Boudreaux leads the team with four.

Suggested bets: Tiger-Cats +6 (1.5 units @ $1.91) WIN, game total +57 (2.5 units @ $1.91) LOSE (22-26)

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