Daily tips for September 4

Racing for September 4

Horse racing: Cranbourne (Vic), Canterbury (NSW), Eagle Farm (Qld), Balaklava (SA), Belmont (WA). Harness racing: Bathurst (NSW), Redcliffe (Qld), Terang (Vic). Greyhound racing: Albion Park (Qld), Angle Park (SA), Bendigo (Vic), Bulli (NSW), Richmond (NSW), The Meadows (Vic), Cranbourne (Vic), Cannington (WA), Ballarat (Vic), The Gardens (NSW), Rockhampton (Qld).

The mercury could well top 30C for today’s running of the $80,000 Listed Advertiser Newspapers Balaklava Cup (1600m), the largest country cup meeting in South Australia. A maximum field of 16 runners will contest the race which, just four years ago, was taken out by the Jake Stephens-trained Alcopop – he went on to win the Herbert Power Stakes before jumping as favourite in the Melbourne Cup that year. Stephens is back with another intriguing runner this year – the UK-bred and previously French-owned 5yo grey #6 Gris Caro. He’s won four of 10 at 2000m and is making his first start in Australia after a couple of impressive jumpouts. Imports make a habit of impressing at shorter distances once they move to Australia, and with Dom Tourneur taking the jump from barrier 5, the E/W price looks appealing here.

Suggested bet: Balaklava R8 #6 Gris Caro E/W (two units) 1st ($6.10/$2.80)

Other tips

Cranbourne R4 #7 Aragonese (win) 1st ($3.00)

Cranbourne R6 #2 Alice’s Virtue (E/W) LOSE (4th)
Cranbourne R8 #8 Rich Jack (win) LOSE (3rd)

Cranbourne R9 #7 Correggio (E/W 1x4) 1st ($2.60/$1.30)

Canterbury R1 #2 Liberty’s Choice (win) 1st ($2.70)

Canterbury R5 #1 Ecuador (win) 1st ($1.60)

Canterbury R6 #5 Trixie (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Eagle Farm R1 #4 Royal Jester (win) LOSE (2nd)

Eagle Farm R7 #9 Lohan (E/W) 3rd ($2.70)

Balaklava R2 #1 Albany Grey (E/W) 1st ($8.80/$2.80)

Balaklava R3 #4 Biancrazy (win) LOSE (2nd)

Balaklava R7 #2 King Club (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Harness racing tip: Terang R7 #2 Cyrus (E/W) LOSE (4th)
Greyhound racing tip: Cranbourne R6 #1 Banjo Boy (win) LOSE (4th)

CFL (week 10) for September 4

Montreal Alouettes (3-5) @ Toronto Argonauts (5-3), Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON, Wednesday, September 4, 9.30am

The Montreal Alouettes found a reason for hope after rookie QB Tanner Marsh engineered a miraculous comeback last week to give the Alouettes their first victory since firing coach Dan Hawkins. Veteran starter Anthony Calvillo is still sidelined with concussion symptoms, so Montreal will likely turn to Marsh again when it visits the rival Toronto Argonauts. Calvillo, 41, is having trouble with his focus and vision as well as other concussion-related issues, leading to speculation that professional football’s all-time passing yards leader might have taken his last snap. Calvillo, though, said he plans on returning once the concussion symptoms subside. Marsh, 23, threw for 329 yards (including a 57-yard completion with 15 seconds left) and ran for 71, but also tossed four interceptions in a 39-38 victory over the BC Lions and must be more accurate if he wants to build on his first CFL victory. Linebacker Kyries Hebert, who leads the team with seven sacks, missed last week’s game, but Montreal’s defense still managed five sacks without him. The East Division-leading Argonauts are also without their starting quarterback after they announced Ricky Ray would miss up to eight weeks with a shoulder injury, meaning back-up Zach Collaros will start.

Speculation that Tim Tebow would head north after the New England Patriots released him last weekend (Montreal holds Tebow’s CFL rights) was hosed down when the 26-year-old said he had no interest in joining the league. Collaros has looked strong at times replacing Ray, completing 51-of-72 passes for 675 yards, four touchdowns and one interception and adding 120 rushing yards. Toronto has lacked a consistent running game since running back Chad Kackert was injured, something Collaros might be able to change with his explosive quickness. Running back Curtis Steele has been limited to nine carries for 61 yards over the last two games while he battles minor injuries. Slotback Chad Owens has a league-leading 1587 total combined yards and is on pace to reach 3000 again. Linebacker Rich McCune is second in the league (behind Cox) with 53 tackles, while linebacker Shane Horton and defensive tackle Khalif Mitchell each have three sacks for Toronto’s defense, which has given up 68 points in the two games since the Argonauts won 38-13 at Montreal in Week 7.

Suggested bet: Game total -51.5 (3.5 units @ $1.91) WIN, Toronto -5.5 (1.5 units @ $1.91) LOSE (20-9)

MLB for September 4

Seattle Mariners (62-75, 31-37 away) @ Kansas City Royals (71-66, 36-33 home), Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MS, Wednesday, September 4, 10.10am

After a pair of ugly outings, Bruce Chen was back on track with a solid showing last week. The Kansas City Royals are hoping for a repeat performance as they try to keep pace in the AL wild-card race against the visiting Seattle Mariners. Chen (6-2, 2.79 ERA) has given Kansas City (71-66) a lift since joining the rotation July 12, going 3-2 with a 3.04 ERA in nine starts. The veteran left-hander has allowed two runs or fewer in all but two of those outings while limiting opponents to a .200 average. After giving up a combined 13 runs over nine innings in losses to Detroit and Washington, he regrouped Thursday in a 3-1 victory at Minnesota. Chen is 4-1 with a 2.59 ERA in nine career starts against the Mariners (62-75), most recently allowing three runs in six innings in a 4-3 road loss on July 28, 2012. Currently sixth in the wild-card standings, the Royals have won seven of nine after pulling out a 3-1 victory in yesterday’s series opener.

Kansas City’s bullpen, which leads the AL with a 2.51 ERA, has surrendered one earned run over 26 innings while striking out 37 in the last 10 games. The Royals will try to keep things going against Mariners starter Erasmo Ramirez (5-1, 5.18), who will be recalled for the third time after briefly getting sent down to Triple-A Tacoma. The right-hander improved to 1-1 with a 2.33 ERA in his last three starts after yielding two runs in 5 2/3 innings in last week’s 3-2 victory at Houston. Ramirez has gone 3-0 on the road while holding opponents to a .220 average, significantly lower than his home mark of .304. He has never faced Kansas City. The Mariners, who went 1 for 11 with runners in scoring position on Monday, have hit .209 and managed 26 runs during a 3-8 stretch. Seattle’s loss was its second in nine match-ups against Kansas City.

Suggested bet: Kansas City WIN (2.5 units @ $1.61) WIN, game total -8 ($1.5 units @ $1.93) WIN (3-4)

Other tips

IL: Blue Jays @ D'backs +8.5 $1.88 WIN (10-4)

AL: Orioles WIN $1.83 LOSE @ Indians -8 $1.93 WIN (3-4)

AL: White Sox @ Yankees WIN $1.69 WIN +7 $1.87 WIN (4-6)

AL: Tigers @ Red Sox -8 $2.02 WIN (1-2)

AL: Twins @ Astros WIN $1.84 LOSE (9-6)

AL: Rays @ Angels WIN $2.22 LOSE +7.5 $1.90 WIN (7-1)

AL: Rangers @ Athletics WIN $1.76 LOSE (5-1)

NL: Nationals WIN $1.65 @ Phillies WIN (9-6)

NL: Mets +1.5 $1.92 LOSE @ Braves -7 $2.05 WIN (1-3)

NL: Cardinals WIN $2.29 @ Reds LOSE (0-1)

NL: Marlins @ Cubs WIN $1.72 LOSE +8 $1.95 PUSH (6-2)

NL: Pirates WIN $1.85 @ Brewers WIN (4-3)

NL: Dodgers WIN $1.99 WIN @ Rockies -9 $1.93 LOSE (7-4)

NL: Giants WIN $1.71 LOSE @ Padres -7 $1.91 WIN (2-3)

Strategy: Bookies’ balancing act presents opportunity

In the weeks leading up to the start of the NFL and College Football seasons, there’s s steady drift of money from baseball into football betting markets. Over the past fortnight, the trickle has turned into a full-on flood. Betting forums have been full of posters discussing the opening games of the NFL regular season for months! This change in focus isn’t limited to punters. The oddsmakers are also spending more of their time fine tuning the football lines each weekend and less time worrying about the MLB numbers. That makes football season one of the best times to bet baseball.

Vegas handicapper Teddy Covers says bookmakers tend to focus on football Sundays, getting their numbers ready for the Sunday night openers. “MLB lines come out the day before the game, so it's not unusual to see some relatively soft opening lines for Monday's games when they get posted on Sunday. The bookmakers’ attention is clearly focused elsewhere,” he said. And it’s not just the lack of attention that makes MLB moneylines soft come football season. Those who were scratching their betting itch with baseball all summer are no longer wagering on MLB odds, leaving the baseball board slow and sluggish in September because of bettor indifference more than bookmaker indifference.

MLB betting decreases between a 15 and 20 per cent once football starts in September. The action picks back up come October, once the playoffs start, but baseball is third fiddle in the fall. As for where diligent MLB bettors can find the softest lines, Teddy Covers says poor teams putting up a fight down the stretch don’t see the immediate adjustment that they would in the middle of the summer. Most MLB odds are computer driven and a season’s worth of data, as well as a thinning MLB market, won’t suck the value out of these unexpected runs as quickly as in recent months.

• Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.