Daily tips for September 23

AFL (Brownlow Medal) for September 23

Let me start with a great Brownlow yarn that I'm pretty sure has never seen the light of day and – fortunately – pre-dates the modern corporate sports betting craze. Until the AFL finally addressed some serious integrity issues that littered the competition prior to about five years ago, votes were delivered to the venue by a security firm. But unlike the clichéd footage of the votes being opened at the venue, they were (and still are) first made available to production staff in the outside broadcast van to be keyed in for use in graphics before AFL CEO Andrew Demetriou fumbles his way through the names a few minutes later. Incredibly, no-one at the AFL thought this might be a problem and, perhaps it would be a good idea for them to forfeit their mobile phones for the evening, until at least 2008 when production staff started driving around in Porsches (kidding).

The Brownlow count is a favourite of professional and amateur punters alike, as I’ve discussed in previous columns over the past two years. Even with the emergence of several sites that have regularly recorded profitable tips on the count, there’s still good value to be had if you look beyond the obvious bets. To reiterate, the Brownlow is so beatable because those who vote – AFL umpires – follow the same patterns year-to-year. The award has been diluted to the point that just a handful of players are capable of winning the Brownlow each year: elite midfielders. So by cross-referencing stats with Brownlow voting across recent years, it’s possible to create a fairly accurate picture of which players will dominate. My key indicators for the Brownlow remain:

• Played 100-200 games
• Need to poll in at least nine games 
• Need to poll at least 20 BM votes

• Played in at least 19 games 
• No key position players 
• Team finished with a winning record

• Ave 25.0 disposals per game or more
• Ave 5.0 clearances per game or more 
• Kicked 20 goals min

• Positive free for/frees against ratio 
• Not been reported

Some books have already paid out on a Gary Ablett jnr victory and, while the Suns superstar is a deserved favourite, his form over the last six weeks of the season failed to match his stellar start to 2013. I still have him edging past Scott Pendlebury to win tonight.

My top 10

Gary Ablett (Gold Coast) 28 
Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood) 27
Joel Selwood (Geelong) 27
Trent Cotchin (Richmond) 20
Dane Swan (Collingwood) 19
Ryan Griffin (Footscray) 19
Tom Liberatore (Footscray) 19
David Mundy (Fremantle) 19
Jobe Watson (Essendon) 18
Patrick Dangerfield (Adelaide) 18

Centrebet top 10

Gary Ablett (Gold Coast) 
Joel Selwood (Geelong)
Sam Mitchell (Hawthorn)

Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood)
Dane Swan (Collingwood)
Nathan Fyfe (Fremantle)
Kieran Jack (Sydney)
Michael Barlow (Fremantle)
Ryan Griffen (Footscray)
Patrick Dangerfield (Adelaide)

Best bets of the night: Winner w/o G Ablett (Scott Pendlebury) $5.00 LOSE, Trent Cotchin (top 5) $7.00 LOSE

Other tips

Carlton most votes (Chris Judd) $3.50 LOSE
Collingwood most votes (Scott Pendlebury) $1.75 LOSE
Fremantle most votes (Michael Barlow) $3.20 LOSE
Fremantle most votes (David Mundy) $12.00 WIN

Gold Coast most votes w/o G Ablett (Dion Prestia) $2.10 WIN
GWS most votes (Callan Ward) $2.80 LOSE
Port Adelaide most votes (Brad Ebert) $15.00 LOSE
Richmond most votes (Trent Cotchin) $1.60 WIN
St Kilda most votes (Nick Riewoldt) $6.50 LOSE
Sydney most votes (Josh Kennedy) $7.00 LOSE
Rory Sloane WIN ($1.65) v Hamish Hartlett WIN (15-6)
Brent Harvey WIN ($1.65) v Marc Murphy LOSE (9-10)
Tom Liberatore WIN ($1.88) v Brett Deledio WIN (14-10)
Dean Cox WIN ($1.88) v Matthew Leuenberger LOSE (6-8)

CFL (week 13) for September 23

BC Lions (7-4) @ Saskatchewan Roughriders (8-3), Mosaic Stadium at Taylor Field, Regina, SK, Monday, September 23, 6.40am

The Saskatchewan Roughriders are facing their biggest adversity of the season after dropping consecutive games for the first time and losing league-leading running back Kory Sheets to a sprained knee. The Roughriders will try to maintain their position in the West Division when they host the BC Lions here. Saskatchewan quarterback Darian Durant (pictured), who threw for 369 yards last week but was also intercepted three times, will have to carry the offence in Sheets’ absence. Slotback Geroy Simon will face his old team for the first time in this game. Simon recorded 14,756 of his record 16,128 career receiving yards with BC and is five catches away from tying Ben Cahoon for the CFL all-time reception record. Slotback Weston Dressler (Saskatchewan’s third-leading receiver) missed last week’s game but should return to the line-up on Sunday. Linebacker Renauld Williams, who is out for the remainder of the season with a torn ACL, was missed last week by the Roughriders, who allowed a season-high 31 points at home.

The BC Lions could tie second-place Saskatchewan in the standings with a victory, but will be without starting QB Travis Lulay (arm injury). Lulay will miss at least two games, leaving the starting spot open for back-up Thomas DeMarco or recently acquired veteran pivot Buck Pierce. Without Lulay, BC running back Andrew Harris will likely play a bigger role in the offence after having his carries limited recently by minor injuries. DeMarco has completed 6-of-11 passes for 57 yards and one touchdown in spot duty this season, while also running for a touchdown. Wide receiver Emmanuel Arceneaux (649) and slotbacks Nick Moore (642) and Courtney Taylor (572) have caught over 500 receiving yards. Kick returner Tim Brown is second in the league with 1361 combined return yards and has provided BC with good field position all season; a role that becomes ever more vital in Lulay’s absence.

Suggested bets: Game total -53 (3.5 units @ $1.91) WIN, Saskatchewan -6 (1.5 units @ $1.91) LOSE (24-22)

MLB for September 23

NL: Cincinnati Reds (88-67, 40-41 away) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (89-66, 50-30 home), PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA, Monday, September 23, 3.40am

The Pittsburgh Pirates regained their NL wild-card lead by recovering quickly from a stunning loss in the series opener against the Cincinnati Reds. Jeff Locke (pictured) tries to help the Pirates win the pivotal three-game set and potentially wrap up a long-awaited postseason berth with another impressive performance against the Reds here. Pittsburgh (89-66) was 3 1/2 games ahead of Cincinnati last Sunday but dropped into a tie atop the wild-card standings on Saturday by blowing a late three-run lead in a 6-5 loss in 10 innings. The Pirates rebounded from an early two-run deficit yesterday for a 4-2 win and remained within two games of St. Louis in the NL Central while taking their slim lead over the Reds (88-67). The Pirates’ second victory in six contests ended the Reds’ four-game win streak.

Locke (10-6, 3.27 ERA) will try to move his team a step closer to clinching its first playoff berth since 1992 by improving to 3-0 all-time against Cincinnati. The left-hander has a 1.19 ERA in four career starts against the Reds and is 2-0 with a 1.00 ERA in three match-ups this season. Locke, though, is 1-4 with a 5.90 ERA in 10 outings since a 3-2 win in Cincinnati on July 21. He gave up four runs over five innings in a 5-2 loss to San Diego on Tuesday. If Locke can earn another victory over the Reds, there's a chance Pittsburgh could secure its first trip to the postseason with some help. Along with a win, the Pirates would need Miami to sweep Sunday's double-header against Washington.

Bronson Arroyo, meanwhile, will try to reduce the Reds’ magic number to the playoffs (currently at four) by earning his first win since August 24. He is 0-2 with a 4.56 ERA in his last four starts but has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last three. Arroyo (13-11, 3.56) gave up two runs and three hits over 6 1/3 innings in Milwaukee last Sunday but the Reds bullpen collapsed in a 6-5 defeat. Arroyo is 0-3 with a 6.14 ERA in his last four starts against Pittsburgh but allowed only one run over seven innings in his only match-up this season, a 2-1 victory on June 19. Three of the Reds’ top hitters – Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips – are a combined 2 for 21 against Locke in 2013.

Suggested bet: Game total -7.5 (2.5 units @ $1.80) LOSE, Pirates WIN (1.5 units @ $1.91) LOSE (11-3)

Other tips (early games)

IL: Giants @ Yankees WIN $1.68 LOSE +9 +$1.97 LOSE (2-1)
AL: Astros @ Indians** -1.5 $1.81 WIN (2-9)
AL: White Sox @ Tigers -1.5 $1.79 LOSE +8 $2.10 WIN (6-3)
AL: Blue Jays @ Red Sox* +8.5 $1.91 LOSE (2-5)
AL: Orioles** @ Rays** WIN $2.04 WIN (1-3)
AL: Rangers** WIN $2.15 LOSE @ Royals** -7 $1.85 WIN (0-4)
AL: Mariners @ Angels WIN $1.86 LOSE (3-2)
AL: Twins @ Athletics -1.5 $1.77 WIN (7-11)
NL: Mets @ Phillies WIN $1.52 LOSE -7 $1.90 PUSH (4-3)
NL: Marlins +1.5 $1.95 WIN @ Nationals** (1) -7.5 $2.08 WIN (4-2)
NL: Braves WIN $1.65 WIN @ Cubs -7.5 $1.79 WIN (5-2)
NL: Dodgers* WIN $1.79 WIN @ Padres -7 $1.84 WIN (1-0)
NL: D'backs WIN $1.85 @ Rockies WIN (13-9)

Other tips (late games)
NL: Marlins @ Nationals** (2) WIN $1.71 WIN (4-5)
NL: Cardinals WIN $1.67 @ Brewers LOSE (4-6)

* = playoff spot, ** = wild card contender

NFL (week 3) for September 23

Green Bay Packers (1-1, 0-1 away) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-1, 1-0 home), Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH, Monday, September 23, 3am

The Cincinnati Bengals feel that Monday night's win over rival Pittsburgh signaled a changing of the guard in the AFC North. No longer the Steelers’ patsies, Cincinnati now battles one of the NFC’s powers when it hosts Green Bay. The Bengals may still have concerns at quarterback but their backfield tandem of BenJarvus Green-Ellis (pictured) and rookie Giovani Bernard certainly delivered on Monday. Bernard looked explosive in catching one scoring pass and running for another TD in the Bengals’ 20-10 win over the Steelers. Cincinnati has won the past two meetings against Green Bay and sacked Rodgers six times in its most recent game (2009) but will be without veteran defensive end Robert Geathers who joined three Bengal linebackers on injured reserve. While questions still abound on Andy Dalton's deep passing ability, he has thrown for 280 and 282 yards in his first two starts and unveiled a new weapon in athletic rookie tight end Tyler Eifert. The Bengals are 0-5 O/U in their last five games at Paul Brown Stadium.

It's no secret what Green Bay’s top-ranked offence brings to battle. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers was masterful picking apart the Washington secondary a week ago. Rodgers, who has won eight of his past 10 starts against AFC teams, racked up a career-high 480 yards through the air despite hardly throwing a pass in the fourth quarter and he could find plenty of room against an injury-riddled Cincinnati defence. Green Bay raced out to a 31-0 lead and cruised to the lopsided win over Washington. While Rodgers' performance was typical, the Packers got a surprising 132-yard effort on the ground from running back James Starks, who replaced Eddie Lacy after the rookie left the game with a concussion. Starks became the first back in the past 45 Packer games to go over the century mark and he'll likely get the call. The Green Bay Packers secondary could be without CB Tramon Williams, S Morgan Burnett and CB Casey Hayward against Cincinnati. The Pack already own the league's third-worst passing defense yielding 359 yards per game.

Suggested bets: Game total +49 (3.5 units @ $1.91) WIN, Cincinnati +3 (1.5 units @ $1.91) WIN (30-34)

Other tips

San Diego Chargers WIN $2.35 LOSE @ Tennessee Titans -43.5 $1.91 WIN (17-20)

Cleveland Browns +6.5 $1.95 WIN @ Minnesota Vikings -40.5 $1.91 LOSE (31-27)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New England Patriots -43.5 $1.91 WIN (3-23)

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens WIN $2.00 WIN -44.5 $1.91 WIN (9-30)

St Louis Rams +3.5 $1.91 LOSE @ Dallas Cowboys -47 $1.91 WIN (7-31)

Arizona Cardinals +7 $1.95 LOSE @ New Orleans Saints -48.5 $1.91 WIN (7-31)

Detroit Lions WIN $1.80 WIN @ Washington Redskins -48.5 $1.91 WIN (27-20)

New York Giants WIN $1.80 LOSE @ Carolina Panthers +47 $1.95 LOSE (0-38)

Atlanta Falcons @ Miami Dolphins +44.5 $1.91 WIN (23-27)

Indianapolis Colts +10 $1.87 @ San Francisco 49ers WIN (27-7)

Jacksonville Jaguars +19 $1.91 LOSE @ Seattle Seahawks +40.5 $1.91 WIN (17-45)

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets -2.5 $1.91 WIN (20-27)

Chicago Bears @ Pittsburgh Steelers +2 $1.91 LOSE +40.5 $1.91 WIN (40-23)

EPL for September 22-23

Manchester City v Manchester United, Etihad Stadium, Manchester, UK, Monday, September 23, 1am

It’s a mighty tough day of betting in the EPL so we’ll go in search of some value across the four games, starting with the first Manchester derby since 1947 in which both combatants have new managers. Both teams may have made an unspectacular start in the Premier League, but their performances and goals scored in the Champions League will ensure that they come into the derby full of attacking confidence. City could have scored a bucket-load at Plzen, with the pick of the three they did get coming from Yaya Toure. Although still nominally playing in a defensive midfield role, the giant Ivorian is again playing with a freedom that we perhaps didn't see as much last season. He's certainly knocking the ball around nicely, with his 347 successful passes comfortably the highest number in the Premier League so far, and 65 more than United's best passer Michael Carrick. Manchester City have scored in each of their last 52 Premier League home games. The all-time record for the competition is 66, set by Manchester United.

After shining against Bayer Leverkusen with his 199th & 200th United goals, much will again be expected of Wayne Rooney (pictured) in a fixture he always seems to relish. He’s scored four goals in his last three away to City, including two in last December's thrilling 3-2 United win, and only needs one more to become the record scorer in all Manchester derbies. Last season, City and United beat each other away from home in the Premier League – United won 3-2 at the Etihad Stadium in December and City won 2-1 at Old Trafford in April. Manchester United have won six of the last 10 Premier League meetings between the two clubs, with City winning three. United's only win in their last five Premier League away games came on the opening weekend against Swansea (W1, D3, L1). Rooney and Robin van Persie have scored a combined 28 goals in 23 Premier League starts together (van Persie 15 and Rooney 13). Rooney has now either scored or assisted 40 goals in his last 44 Premier League games.

Suggested bet: Manchester United DNB (two units @ $2.40) LOSE (4-1)

Other tips

Arsenal (only to score) $2.15 v Stoke City LOSE (3-1)

Crystal Palace v Swansea WIN $2.05 WIN (0-2)

Cardiff City v Tottenham Hotspur WIN $1.85 WIN (0-1)

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