Daily tips for September 1

Racing for September 1

Horse racing: Ballarat (Vic), Mildura (Vic), Moree (NSW), Ballina (NSW), Kalgoorlie (WA), Devonport (Tas), Warwick (Qld). Harness racing: Geelong (Vic), Hobart (Tas). Greyhound racing: Healesville (Vic), Sandown Park (Vic), Sale (Vic), Albion Park (Qld), Strathalbyn (SA), Canberra (ACT).

Due to other commitments (a combination of Father’s Day and an overgrown garden), I won’t be posting any racing tips today. I’ll be back in the saddle tomorrow, and will also have some review points from Saturday’s meetings at Caulfield and Rosehill.

AFL (round 23) for September 1

Gold Coast (7-14) v Greater Western Sydney (1-20), Metricon Stadium, Sunday, September 1, 1.10pm AEST

In a marvel of fixturing, somehow the AFL managed to schedule games against the predicted bottom four in the final round of the season. The bookies haven’t made this contest anymore attractive – the Giants looked done and dusted for the season as they coughed up the softest of performances against the Tigers last week. The Suns weren’t much better as they handed the Saints just their fourth win of the season. The home side has to be favoured here as they’re fielding their best possible 22 but neither line holds much interest. Potentially, GWS will turn up the wick for their final game under Kevin Sheedy and should they match their 15-goal average against the Suns, the ‘over’ game total looks the most likely scenario but looking at the Giants’ squad (the most inexperienced they’ve fielded all year), forget the line and take a small swing at the game total ‘over’.

Suggested bet: Game total +200.5 (one unit @ $1.90) WIN (146-63)

Collingwood (14-7) v North Melbourne (9-12), MCG, Sunday, September 1, 3.20pm AEST

North Melbourne’s finals dreams were finally dashed when Carlton defeated Port Adelaide yesterday evening, meaning the top eight is decided and the Roos will finish 2013 with the unwanted tag of best side to miss the finals. The market hasn’t changed dramatically, with Collingwood cut from 12- to eight-point favourites in expectation of lesser commitment from the Kangas. I didn’t expect Collingwood to lose here whether the result mattered to the Roos or not. The Magpies are one of the most form sensitive sides in the competition, and while they’re key numbers have been trending in the right direction, Nathan Buckley still has to rely on too few doing too much. The Roos have generally struggled against the Magpies, and lost the season opener at their preferred Etihad Stadium home. In updated team news, Dayne Beams returns for Luke Ball while North are unchanged.

Suggested bet: Collingwood -8.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE, game total +192.5 (one unit @ $1.90) WIN (114-127)

Footscray (7-14) v Melbourne (2-19), Etihad Stadium, Sunday, September 1, 4.40pm AEST

How ironic that the most dramatic season in the history of the AFL/VFL ends with the lamest of dead rubbers. Much has been made of the strides made by the Bulldogs under Brendan McCarthy this season and, almost unbelievably, they’ll finish 8-14! However, the combination of a mega-soft draw and long home run at Etihad were shown up last week by the Brisbane Lions who again exposed the flaws of McCarthy’s game style. But that won’t matter here as Footscray returns to the comfortable surrounds under the roof to tackle one of the worst performed sides in recent memory, who’ve compiled historic inside-50 counts in 2013. Remember, barely two months have passed since the Demons actually beat the Dogs at the MCG but they’ve been abysmal since that day. The line has already crept out to 43.5 but I’m expecting a Bulldogs win by almost 50 points, making this a still playable game.

Suggested bet: Footscray -43.5 (three units @ $1.91)

MLB for August 31/September 1

San Diego (60-74, 24-42 away) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (79-55, 41-28 home), Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA, Sunday, September 1, 11.10am

The Dodgers are rolling towards the MLB playoffs but I suspect their season may strike a road hump here. Production at the plate may be important since Dodgers starter Chris Capuano (4-7, 4.74) takes the mound. He's 0-1 with a 6.98 ERA while failing to reach the sixth inning in each of his last four starts. The veteran left-hander was pulled after the fifth again Sunday, giving up three runs and six hits in an 8-1 loss to Boston. Capuano is 0-1 with a 4.66 ERA in four games (two starts) against the Padres this year. However, he was sharp against them June 23, throwing five scoreless innings while not getting a decision in a 3-1 road win. The Padres, losers of six of eight, give the ball to Andrew Cashner (8-8, 3.55), who could use some help if he's going to avoid a fourth straight loss. The right-hander has been backed by three total runs over his last four starts, a big reason he's 0-3 despite a 2.42 ERA in that span. The offence didn't give him any support Sunday while he yielded two hits in seven scoreless innings of a 3-2 win over the Chicago Cubs. Cashner experienced a similar scenario in his only career start against Capuano on June 23, giving up one run in eight innings while also not getting a decision.

Another headache for the Dodgers is Yasiel Puig is one of the biggest contributors to the Los Angeles Dodgers heading towards an NL West title. The Dodgers would prefer he remains on the field. After putting a pair of disciplinary issues behind him, Puig looks to continue pounding on the San Diego Padres in the middle game of this series Saturday night. Puig is a leading contender for the NL Rookie of the Year award and a sensation for the Dodgers (79-55), who are 10 1/2 games ahead of second-place Arizona. His .354 average, 13 homers, 31 RBIs and 53 runs are key reasons Los Angeles is all but assured of returning to the post-season for the first time in four years. Despite his tremendous production, the right fielder has recently found himself in the center of controversy. Puig was benched after four innings of Wednesday's 4-0 win over the Chicago Cubs, failing to break up a double play with a slide and slamming down his bat after striking out. Those on-field incidents came a week after he was fined for arriving late to a game. Adrian Gonzalez, a member of the Padres from 2006-10, has also tormented his former team, hitting .354 with six homers and 18 RBIs over the last 20 games. That includes a .405 average while plating 10 runs in 10 match-ups at Chavez Ravine.

Suggested bet: Game total +7.5 (1.5 unit @ $1.83) LOSE, San Diego Padres +1.5 (2.5 units @ $1.66 WIN (1-2)

Other tips

IL: Angels WIN $2.20 @ Brewers WIN (6-5)
AL: Orioles @ Yankees WIN $1.81 WIN -9 $1.92 WIN (0-2)

AL: Royals @ Blue Jays WIN $1.88 WIN (2-4)
AL: Indians @ Tigers WIN $1.60 WIN (5-10)
AL: White Sox @ Red Sox -1.5 $1.98 WIN (2-7)
AL: Twins +1.5 $1.99 @ Rangers WIN (1-2)
AL: Mariners @ Astros WIN $1.87 LOSE (3-1)
AL: Rays WIN $1.99 LOSE @ Athletics LOSE (1-2)
NL: Phillies @ Cubs +7 $2.00 PUSH (3-4)
NL: Mets WIN $2.65 WIN @ Nationals +7.5 $1.85 WIN (11-3)
NL: Cardinals WIN $2.23 LOSE @ Pirates -7.5 $1.92 LOSE (1-7)
NL: Marlins +1.5 $1.93 @ Braves WIN (4-5)
NL: Reds @ Rockies +10 $1.84 WIN (8-3)
NL: Giants @ Diamondbacks WIN $1.72 WIN (3-4)

NCAAF (week 1) for August 31/September 1

(19) Boise State Broncos @ Washington Huskies, Husky Stadium, Seattle, WA, Sunday, September 1, noon

Washington moves back into its renovated stadium on the shores of Lake Washington with a marquee test to re-open Husky Stadium (pictured above). It’s a rematch of last December’s Las Vegas Bowl when the Broncos built a huge early lead then pulled out a 28-26 victory. Washington wants revenge and not to christen its new stadium with a victory. Broncos coach Chris Petersen expects to encounter a raucous, signal-extinguishing crowd of around 70,000 – and a foe with 20 returning starters trying to make sure what happened in Vegas stays there. No question, Peterson said: The Huskies will employ the same no-huddle offense his own Broncos, ranked No. 19 in The AP pre-season poll, used to great effect to win four consecutive bowl games.

This will be a clash of two quarterbacks who at 2012’s end were on different trajectories. BSU’s Joe Southwick shined, particularly in the Broncos’ final four games when he threw nine touchdowns and no interceptions. Meanwhile, Husky QB Keith Price was picked off at critical moments, including the misfire that sealed the Huskies’ December 22 bowl-game fate against the Broncos. The Broncos are expected to start Bryan Douglas and Deonte Deayon at cornerback, who have a combined four college starts. Meanwhile, the Huskies will counter with standout Kasen Williams, veteran Kevin Smith and possibly freshman John Ross to lead a deep group of receivers.

Suggested bet: Washington -4 (2.5 units @ $1.95) WIN, game total +53 (1.5 units @ $1.91) LOSE (6-38)

Other tips

Rice @ Texas A&M +66.5 WIN (31-52)

Louisiana Tech @ NC State +62.5 LOSE (14-40)

Northwestern -5.5 @ California WIN (44-30)

LSU -4.5 WIN @ TCU -49.5 LOSE (36-27)

Wyoming +30 @ Nebraska WIN (34-37)

Penn State -8.5 @ Syracuse LOSE (23-17)

Northern Illinois +3.5 @ Iowa WIN (30-27)

Kentucky @ Western Kentucky +4.5 WIN (26-35)

UL-Monroe @ Oklahoma -21.5 WIN (0-34)

Mississippi State @ Oklahoma State -11 WIN (3-21)

EPL for August 31/September 1

Manchester City v Hull City, Etihad Stadium, Manchester, UK, Saturday, August 31, 9.45pm

Manuel Pelligrini (pictured) suffered his first loss as Manchester City boss after they threw away a goal lead and were undone by Premier League newcomers Cardiff City in South Wales last weekend. After looking at their imposing best on the opening weekend against Newcastle, City were left shell-shocked as two set-piece headers from Frazier Campbell secured a 3-1 win for the EPL newcomers. Losing to Cardiff was the first time City have lost a league game before December since 2010. Hull on the other hand were unsurprisingly brushed aside by Chelsea in their opener but showed real Northern grit and resolve to hang on and beat Norwich City 1-0, and that after playing for nearly an hour with 10 men. A Robbie Brady penalty secured the points for the Tigers and these points could be vital come the end of the season for a side expected to be around the foot of the table.

Hull should attempt to ‘park the bus’ for the first half in the early kick-off but are no match for the power and attacking options under Pelligrini’s disposal, and it may take City some time to break the deadlock. With the early kick-offs traditionally slow to get going, the play here looks to be a comfortable City win but perhaps a stalemate until half-time. Manchester City and Hull City have met four times in the Premier League – each club has one win apiece, with two draws. Hull have only won away at Manchester City once in 11 games across all competitions. That was a 2-1 win at Maine Road in the fifth round of the FA Cup in 1930! The victory over Norwich was Hull’s first win in nine top-flight matches (since a 2-0 home win against Fulham in March 2010).

Suggested bet: Manchester City 2+ (three units @ $1.50) WIN, HT/FT double Draw/Manchester City (one unit @ $4.50) WIN (0-0, 2-0)

Other tips

Cardiff City v Everton -2.5 ($1.77) WIN (0-0)

Norwich City v Southampton DRAW ($3.25) LOSE (1-0)

West Ham WIN v Stoke City ($1.92) LOSE (0-1)

Crystal Palace v Sunderland +2.5 ($2.24) WIN (3-1)

 
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