Daily tips for August 9

Cricket for August 9

Third Test – England v Australia, Emirates Durham International Cricket Ground, Chester-le-Street, County Durham, UK, August 9-13

After Australia dominated the drawn Third Test at Old Trafford, it's tricky to predict the way the series will turn at Durham. Will Australia build on their impressive showing and keep alive their hopes of at least drawing the series before having a real go at winning back the urn this summer? Or will Australia follow up an encouraging performance with a shocker in the second of back-to-back Tests as they did at Lord's? Both look feasible. England can reasonably be expected to improve, but in truth they were not that bad at Old Trafford; Australia were just better. England is a more experienced, more consistent team than Australia. England will either be competent, good or very good. Australia on the other hand could produce anything.

And to further muddy things, we head to a ground where Test history is thin on the ground and of dubious relevance. There have been some low scores in the County Championship at Durham this season, but these are numbers that require context. Durham have a truly top-class bowling attack, and a mediocre top six. Yes, the pitch will help the seamers, but it will be no unplayable minefield. The pattern of the series is pretty clear. Every pitch is bone dry to aid England's big advantage – Swann – while also dulling Australia's main weapon - their fast bowling attack. Weather should intervene here, but not as badly as the Third Test making a result more than likely. Despite Australia’s encouraging display last week, I have to stay with the proven form and a reasonably solid price about England. Should Australia win the toss, the price is likely to get out to $3.00!

Suggested bets: England WIN (two units @ $2.00); Australia most runs 1st innings Chris Rogers (0.5 units @ $5.50); England most runs 1st innings Kevin Pietersen (0.5 units @ $4.75

NRL (R22) for August 9

Melbourne Storm (12-16) v South Sydney Rabbitohs (15-4), AAMI Park, Friday, August 9, 7.35pm AEST

Potentially one of the games of the year, this clash takes on ever greater significance than originally promised given the somewhat surprising results last round that have thrown the premiership race wide open. Nobody saw South Sydney’s capitulation at the hands of a red-hot North Queensland side coming. With full-back Greg Inglis sidelined and five-eighth John Sutton helped off with a foot injury late in the first half, their usually lethal attack lacked potency and it will be interesting to see whether they can put it all together minus two of their key playmakers.

On the other hand, any questions over Melbourne’s ability to mount a title defence evaporated in the space of 80 minutes when they blew away Canberra 68-4 in the nation’s capital last Sunday. Talk about playing yourself into form. If there was one thing the Storm needed it was a shot of confidence and with their big three of Billy Slater, Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith back to their best they did just that as they raced in 12 tries to one. It makes for an intriguing contest on Friday night. (Preview with thanks to Ben Blaschke, NRL.com)

Suggested bet: Melbourne -7.5 (three units @ $1.71) WIN (26-8)

AFL (R20) for August 9

St Kilda (3-15) v Hawthorn (15-3), Etihad Stadium, Friday, August 9, 7.50pm AEST

The Seven Network won’t be too happy to have discovered this snoozer pop up on the Friday night schedule as the leader-leading Hawks take on the 16th-placed Saints under the roof at Etihad. As mentioned in recent weeks, some sides have already turned their attention towards 2014 with St Kilda falling into that category. They’ve already sent six players to the surgeon with Scott Watters keen to get as many games into his young charges as possible. Games between these two sides aren’t common, with just four meetings in the past four years with an 87-all draw the last time they met here in 2010. That’s about as polite as I can be about the Saints’ chances – even the absence of Buddy Franklin shouldn’t stop Hawthorn covering this line with ease as Alastair Clarkson will be keen to see a more committed effort from his side after last week’s shock loss to Richmond.

Suggested bet: Hawthorn -54.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE, game total -198.5 (two units @ $1.90) WIN (56-102)

Racing for August 9

Horse racing: Geelong (Vic), Wyong (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Wagga (NSW – abandoned). Harness racing: Mildura (Vic), Gold Coast (Qld), Newcastle (NSW), Melton (Vic), Port Pirie (SA), Gloucester Park (WA). Greyhound racing: Casino (NSW), Gawler (SA), Bendigo (Vic), The Gardens (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Geelong (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Winnellie Park (NT), Mandurah (WA).

Not much of interest in today’s meetings so we’ll keep our accounts in tact for a big tilt at tomorrow’s races as more and more Spring Carnival contenders are scheduled to return to the track. I'll post harness and greyhound tips later this afternoon (see below).

Harness racing tip: Melton R7 #10 Five Star Anvil (win) LOSE (3rd)
Greyhound racing tip: Wentworth Park R8 #1 Hero's Return (win) 1st ($2.40)

NFL pre-season (week 1) for August 9

Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons, Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA, Friday, August 9, 10am

It’s back … kinda, with the first games of the NFL pre-season scheduled for today. The Atlanta Falcons were one of several teams that placed big bets on their quarterbacks this off-season. The team signed Matt Ryan to a loaded extension in the off-season, perhaps to the detriment of a defence that sustained several formidable losses this off-season. The Cincinnati Bengals will be a strong early preseason test when they head to the Georgia Dome. The Bengals didn't make many moves in the off-season, but they didn’t need to coming off a respectable 10-6 season. The team did well in the 2013 NFL Draft, adding tight end Tyler Eifert and running back Giovani Bernard with their first two picks. Both players will be solid intermediate passing targets for Andy Dalton. I’m expecting more game time for the Bengals’ starters than the undermanned Falcons here, so there’s a slight lean to Cincinnati.

Suggested bet: Bengals +2 WIN (34-10)

Other tips

Redskins @ Titans -35.5 LOSE (22-21)

Rams @ Browns -4 WIN (19-27)

Broncos +3.5 @ 49ers WIN (10-6)

MLB for August 9

Boston Red Sox (70-46, 31-25 away) @ Kansas City Royals (58-53, 29-25 home), Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MS, Friday, August 9, 10.10am

Jon Lester doesn’t seem overly concerned about his last outing, and neither am I. Lester and the AL East-leading Red Sox continue their 10-game trip here against a Royals team going for a 14th win in 16 tries. After yielding two total runs while winning his first two starts after the All-Star break, Lester (10-6, 4.52 ERA) gave up a season-high 11 hits and six runs in Friday’s 7-6 loss to Arizona. But Lester hasn’t had issues against the Royals (58-53), going 6-2 with a 1.64 ERA in nine starts. It’s his lowest ERA against any team he’s faced more than four times. Prior to giving up three runs in a 4-3 home win over Kansas City on August 24, Lester had allowed one earned run or fewer in his previous six starts in this matchup, beginning with a no-hitter May 19, 2008, at Fenway Park. Lester gets the ball after Boston (70-46) took two of three at Houston. After rallying from five down in Tuesday's 15-10 victory, the Red Sox won 7-5 on Wednesday with Stephen Drew's one-out, three-run homer in the ninth the difference.

The Red Sox, up 2 1/2 on Tampa Bay in the East, will now face a Kansas City team that's won six consecutive series -- its longest run since taking nine straight in 1991 -- after grabbing two of three from Minnesota with Wednesday's 5-2 victory. The Royals are in the midst of a 15-4 second-half surge, but they've actually lost a half-game in the standings to Detroit, which won its 11th straight Wednesday. Kansas City is 8 1/2 behind the Tigers and five games out of the second wild-card spot. The Royals, though, have to like their chances moving forward if their bullpen keeps delivering. That group has a 1.32 ERA over the last 15 games. The Royals’ rotation has also been outstanding, with just one starter in the last 16 games giving up more that two runs, and Bruce Chen (4-0, 2.03) hasn’t surrendered more than a pair in any of his four starts since replacing Luis Mendoza in the rotation. The left-hander is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in those outings after throwing six innings of one-run ball in Saturday's 4-3, 12-inning win at the New York Mets.

Suggested bet: Red Sox WIN (three units @ $1.92) LOSE (1-5)

Other tips

AL: Tigers WIN $1.57 WIN @ Indians -7.5 $1.91 LOSE (10-3)

NL: Rockies @ Mets WIN $1.68 WIN (1-2)

NL: Marlins WIN $2.20 LOSE @ Pirates +6.5 $2.15 WIN (4-5)

NL: Cubs @ Phillies WIN $2.10 WIN +9 $2.00 WIN (1-12)

NL: Dodgers @ Cardinals WIN $1.91 LOSE (5-1)

NL: Brewers @ Giants WIN $1.60 WIN -7 $1.95 WIN (1-4)

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